Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[AZOffaly]

Our predictions have completed Leinster, and Sinn Fein are still making a very impressive showing. I do think I should put a caveat that our margin for error is +/- Ulster Seriously though, I think people are completely overestimating Sinn Fein's performance down here, or else you are deliberately trying to predict wrong!

Even so, it is interesting in that it is showing a FG and Labour Coalition with 51% of the 72 seats so far. Obviously Sinn Fein's 20% of the seats are probably at the expense of Labour largely in our predictions. Interesting too that FF are holding steady enough in the Mid - Low 20%s of the seats.

72 seats predicted so Far

Fine Gael - 29
Fianna Fail - 16
Sinn Fein - 14
Labour - 8
Others - 5



The results for the last 5 Leinster constituencies

[armaghniac]

AZOffaly, I am not sure if you are capturing the likely effect of transfers e.g. in Louth when one of the Labour people is eliminated the other would get most of the transfers and pass out the FF guy.

also http://www.boards.ie/vote for a similar exercise. This one probably overstates Labour support and understates FG and FF support because of the age groups etc involved.

Shinner prospects are overstated here, although they may indeed exceed FF!

As per de Indo
Last night, one of the country's leading political science experts, NUI Maynooth's Dr Adrian Kavanagh, said if the results of the opinion poll were repeated on polling day on Friday week, February 25, the allocation of Dail seat numbers would be:

    * Fianna Fail 13 TDs.
    * Fine Gael 78 TDs.
    * Labour 42 TDs.
    * Green Party 0 TDs.
    * Sinn Fein 13 TDs.
    * Independents 20 TDs

[Croí na hÉireann]

First candidate home in those 5 constituencies are all going to be Sinners, I don't know whether to  or 

[AZOffaly]

AZOffaly, I am not sure if you are capturing the likely effect of transfers e.g. in Louth when one of the Labour people is eliminated the other would get most of the transfers and pass out the FF guy.

also http://www.boards.ie/vote for a similar exercise. This one probably overstates Labour support and understates FG and FF support because of the age groups etc involved.

Shinner prospects are overstated here, although they may indeed exceed FF!

As per de Indo
Last night, one of the country's leading political science experts, NUI Maynooth's Dr Adrian Kavanagh, said if the results of the opinion poll were repeated on polling day on Friday week, February 25, the allocation of Dail seat numbers would be:

    * Fianna Fail 13 TDs.
    * Fine Gael 78 TDs.
    * Labour 42 TDs.
    * Green Party 0 TDs.
    * Sinn Fein 13 TDs.
    * Independents 20 TDs

It's not up to me to capture transfers. Ye are predicting the seats won, so presumably ye are considering the likely transfers. I know I am. Again, this is not supposed to be a popularity poll, or who you *want* to see win. It is an exercise to see how close, or more likely far, the people on this board are from the general public, or at least the electorate in the Republic. I have a feeling we may not be a million miles out if we were to take half the Sinn Fein seats and give them to Labour at this stage.

[Maguire01]

How did Iceland and Argentina manage to do it? not directing it at you DH as we both profess to know little about it, but can someone tell me why we can't burn the bondholders when others can??

It wasn't pretty there either. Iceland had interest rates at 18% - I wouldn't like to be paying a mortgage with that rate. Not sure what they're doing now for capital.
I don't know the detail but I was of the understanding that Argentina either couldn't go to the bondmarkets or were having to pay ludicrous rates to borrow after defaulting.

There's no easy solution, but these are the things that people aren't told as part of the 'burn the bondholders' strategy. It's not that anyone actually wants to pay them, it's just the consequences of not doing so.

[Maguire01]

http://www.votomatic.ie/Test.aspx
G'wan, give it a go!

My result:
You are a hardcore Labour Party supporter.

[muppet]

How did Iceland and Argentina manage to do it? not directing it at you DH as we both profess to know little about it, but can someone tell me why we can't burn the bondholders when others can??

It wasn't pretty there either. Iceland had interest rates at 18% - I wouldn't like to be paying a mortgage with that rate. Not sure what they're doing now for capital.
I don't know the detail but I was of the understanding that Argentina either couldn't go to the bondmarkets or were having to pay ludicrous rates to borrow after defaulting.

There's no easy solution, but these are the things that people aren't told as part of the 'burn the bondholders' strategy. It's not that anyone actually wants to pay them, it's just the consequences of not doing so.

Argentina was run by the military up to their crisis, they seized the pensions and froze the bank accounts of all of its citizens. They tried to seize foreign assets of citizens to pay the  government debts. There was 18% unemployment, riots, many deaths.

They could only achieve the above as they had their own currency. Their ten year bond rates are down to  around 9% now which is crisis level for us.

Argentina is not the way we want to go.

[Nally Stand]

http://www.votomatic.ie/Test.aspx
G'wan, give it a go!

My result:
You are a hardcore Labour Party supporter.

My result:
You are a hardcore supporter of the hairy lesbians party

[muppet]

http://www.votomatic.ie/Test.aspx
G'wan, give it a go!

My result:
You are a hardcore Labour Party supporter.

You are compatible with the Labour Party. You are also close to Fine Gael.

SF was next interestingly. My ideology is taken from both sides depending on the issue so it can bring up interesting results. I was furthest from FF, thank God.

[AZOffaly]

I'm hardcore Sinn Fein apparently. Good stuff, 20% of seats in the GAA Board predictions. Next up was Labour, then Fine Gael, Fianna Fail last for me too.

[mylestheslasher]

Mostly compatible with sinn fein on 16, labour next in 15, greens next on 0, fg on -3, ff on -12. Not a bad reflection of my thinking at the moment.

[Farrandeelin]

SF 8
Lab 7 
FG 0
Greens -5
FF -11

It says I'm hard to please though!

[lawnseed]

Do you have anything to add to last nights discussion on the "European Force"?

I gave my opinion.

mayo you know i value your opinion but you dodged both mine and diablo questions about the involvement of irish troops in the european force and you are also side stepping the fact that at the time of lisbon 1 and 2 all of the pro lisbon parties assured the isih people that a yes would not lead to our participation in this 'farce'. the announcment of this now is a major electorial boob so you can expect gerry and co to pick up on it. please answer

[Maguire01]

Decent enough debate on TG4. Thought all three had a decent grasp of the language although Enda not as slick as some had expected and I don't think his policy for the Leaving Cert will have helped him.

[Maguire01]

This is worth a laugh!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yieS7jWWdB8&feature=player_embedded