Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Maguire do you reckon FG vote management is that bad up in Cavan-Mon? How are the other parties record up there?

[Ulick]

Just read on politics.ie that Fianna Fáil's Avril Power is doing a leaflet drop in Dublin NE tonight with the following:

To keep Sinn Féin out, Averil needs your No.1 vote or next highest preference. Only Averil can beat O'Toole. Vote strategically and KEEP SINN FÉIN OUT!

A vote for Averil is a vote for:

    * a Trinity College Business Graduate with extensive policy experience
    * a fresh and hardworking local representative
    * a constructive member of the opposition who will support Government policies that will fix the economy & create jobs


By contrast, letting Sinn Féin take this Dáil seat will mean:

    * a lack of credible opposition at the local and national level
    * a voice for anti-enterprise policies & punitive income taxes
    * obstruction of measures to reduce crime

The Sinn Féin candiate in Dublin NE is Larry O'Toole, long time community activist and anti-drugs campaigner http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJS2-IUPi1c

Avril Power is the wife of Fionnan Sheahan from the Independent.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Just read on politics.ie that Fianna Fáil's Avril Power is doing a leaflet drop in Dublin NE tonight with the following:

To keep Sinn Féin out, Averil needs your No.1 vote or next highest preference. Only Averil can beat O'Toole. Vote strategically and KEEP SINN FÉIN OUT!

A vote for Averil is a vote for:

    * a Trinity College Business Graduate with extensive policy experience
    * a fresh and hardworking local representative
    * a constructive member of the opposition who will support Government policies that will fix the economy & create jobs


By contrast, letting Sinn Féin take this Dáil seat will mean:

    * a lack of credible opposition at the local and national level
    * a voice for anti-enterprise policies & punitive income taxes
    * obstruction of measures to reduce crime

The Sinn Féin candiate in Dublin NE is Larry O'Toole, long time community activist and anti-drugs campaigner http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJS2-IUPi1c

Avril Power is the wife of Fionnan Sheahan from the Independent.

Ya I saw that too Ulick, had a thread started on it. Absolute panic stations. Sein Fein couldn't get better canvassing tonight if they tried. I hope to fck it backfires on her.

If I saw that come in my door, it would have bought SF a transfer.

[Ulick]

Indeed. If eligibility to the Dáil was based on pure hard work and service to the community there wouldn't be a more deserving member than O'Toole. Fecking trumped up tart - Larry beating her for the last seat would be my 'Portillo moment'.

[Maguire01]

According to an opinion poll in the Anglo Celt paper in cavan, Sinn Fein are on track to win 2 seat although FG are making a fight for the  last one. O Caoliain is going to top the poll with a sizeable surplus which is predicted to go 80% to Kateryn Reilly.

Eh? Accoring to the story on their site it will be a "small surplus" which "could be higher than 1,000 votes".
http://www.anglocelt.ie/news/roundup/articles/2011/02/23/4003339-cliff-hanger-as-fg-and-sf-do-battle-for-extra-seats/

It also says "it is not an opinion poll in the absolute scientific sense." So i'd take it with a big health warning.
The poll was apparently conducted in Bailieborough, Ballyjamesduff, Belturbet, Cavan, Carrickmacross, Castleblayney, Clones and Monaghan. That's leaving out quite a few towns and all of the country folk (i.e. c.75% of the population).

It looks like FG's gamble might not pay off though. It seems that their vote management isn't up to much at all with the candidates going all over the constituency to canvass for votes and no real strategy for transfers.

I've also read in a few places that the SF vote is the least likely to actually turn out (not in a Cavan/Monaghan sense, but generally). I didn't really understand that myself and was surprised by it. Is that based on low turnout in working class areas or what?

If a person gets elected in Cavan/Monaghan with say 5000 votes then id say 1000 is sizeable surplus. I did say it was an opinion poll which like any opinion poll could be wildly wrong.

I can't see anyone getting elected on 5,000 votes. Or even 8,000. The quota is likely to be around 10,000 i'd imagine, and whilst the fifth candidate might not make the quota, they'll be a bit closer than that.

But my point was you referred to the article and a 'sizeable' surplus, whereas the article referenced a 'small' surplus.

[Maguire01]

Maguire do you reckon FG vote management is that bad up in Cavan-Mon? How are the other parties record up there?

I'm not living there, it's just what i'm reading online. There doesn't seem to be any real strategy. It comes across like the FG candidates are in all-out competition with each other rather than working as a team to get 3 of them over the line.

[Maguire01]

Just read on politics.ie that Fianna Fáil's Avril Power is doing a leaflet drop in Dublin NE tonight with the following:

To keep Sinn Féin out, Averil needs your No.1 vote or next highest preference. Only Averil can beat O'Toole. Vote strategically and KEEP SINN FÉIN OUT!

A vote for Averil is a vote for:

    * a Trinity College Business Graduate with extensive policy experience
    * a fresh and hardworking local representative
    * a constructive member of the opposition who will support Government policies that will fix the economy & create jobs


By contrast, letting Sinn Féin take this Dáil seat will mean:

    * a lack of credible opposition at the local and national level
    * a voice for anti-enterprise policies & punitive income taxes
    * obstruction of measures to reduce crime

The Sinn Féin candiate in Dublin NE is Larry O'Toole, long time community activist and anti-drugs campaigner http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJS2-IUPi1c

Avril Power is the wife of Fionnan Sheahan from the Independent.

Ya I saw that too Ulick, had a thread started on it. Absolute panic stations. Sein Fein couldn't get better canvassing tonight if they tried. I hope to fck it backfires on her.

If I saw that come in my door, it would have bought SF a transfer.

Would it have bought SF a transfer if FG had done it?

Having read the thread on p.ie it seems it might only have been done in traditional FF areas, to mobilise 'their own' vote. It could backfire spectacularly or it might make no difference wither way.

[Maguire01]

Apologies if this has been posted before...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qa6U-K24BY0&feature=channel

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

Having read the thread on p.ie it seems it might only have been done in traditional FF areas, to mobilise 'their own' vote. It could backfire spectacularly or it might make no difference wither way.

There's no such thing as a 'traditional FF area' in this election; that's a luxury they've well squandered.

[LaurelEye]

Yes it is real. There was a thread here about it too. It's quite sad really.

Enda kept falling on the traffic cones for me. Was constantly expecting him to say "Oh jazes, me hip!".

[IolarCoisCuain]

By Jesus, would you look at the eleventh hour billing and cooing between the Fine Gael party and the Sinn Féin party?

Enda said he wouldn't touch them oul' Shinners with a shitty stick, and now here's Mayo God Help Us, as blue as the very sky above, willing to give them a transfer if only he'd seen a leaflet.

I wonder what'll it'll be like in Leinster House next week when Enda, the head melted from two hours of Joan Burton making demands and Pat Rabbitte looking down his snout at him, hears that soft Belfast burr down the line: "Enda? This is Gurry. Let's meet for coffee and a doughnut. We only want the one ministry, really. And maybe a junior for Mary Lou. Let's talk."

Ní neart go cur le chéile, wha'? I'm telling you, stranger things have happened.

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

Ní neart go cur le chéile, wha'? I'm telling you, stranger things have happened.

Beidh sé sin go direach an chraic, a déarfainn! 

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Hitting Liverpool in my Blueshirt with a Shinner mate 

[Bogball XV]

By Jesus, would you look at the eleventh hour billing and cooing between the Fine Gael party and the Sinn Féin party?

Enda said he wouldn't touch them oul' Shinners with a shitty stick, and now here's Mayo God Help Us, as blue as the very sky above, willing to give them a transfer if only he'd seen a leaflet.

I wonder what'll it'll be like in Leinster House next week when Enda, the head melted from two hours of Joan Burton making demands and Pat Rabbitte looking down his snout at him, hears that soft Belfast burr down the line: "Enda? This is Gurry. Let's meet for coffee and a doughnut. We only want the one ministry, really. And maybe a junior for Mary Lou. Let's talk."

Ní neart go cur le chéile, wha'? I'm telling you, stranger things have happened.

The worry is that Enda won't need to be wooing anyone.

Ridiculous leaflet from Power, I don't think she's likely to get a seart anyway, but that sort of gutter politics means she doesn't deserve one, although she's in the right party anyway.

Decision made here, it's going to be Labour, has to be because I really can't countenance FG there on their own, they'll be the largest party, but the less seats the better imo.

[Bogball XV]

According to Paddypower, Averil Power has a similar chance to John Gormley - she's 4/1.  The 3rd seat in that constituency is between O'Toole and Sean Kenny of Labour, both 4/5.