Gilmore for Taoiseach?

Started by barelegs, June 10, 2010, 09:13:59 PM

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Zapatista

Quote from: muppet on June 14, 2010, 04:37:45 PM

And if it goes wrong they could end up with none.

My guess is a deal. Kenny until a year or two after the election, then a bloodless handover to Bruton.

This is how I would see it.

Kenny hasn't done a bad job and those like Varadkar who were elected and promoted under him (apart from Crieghton) are still on his side. It's much too soon and abrubt for Bruton to make a move. It would be seen as FF dictating the FG leadership. Any move now could trigger and election and leave FG with a bit of a hangover going into one. If Kenny was to take his lack of public popularity and quit then it would put more pressure on Cowen and FF back benchers to push him. The only ones ths would serve at the minute are Labour (apart from it taking the lime light of the poll result away from Cowen). FF don't want an election and niether do FG.

Hardy

Sorry, but I don't buy it. Kenny as leader is an electoral liability and the major mine in the road to government for FG. Bruton is the darling of the floating voter and the only and obvious choice FG has to make to copper fasten the election win is to install him as leader.

Listen to the people. I'd be willing to bet that an opinion poll asking who do the people think would be the best Taoiseach, lets say in a national government, would result in 1. Bruton, 2. Lenihan. Or perhaps 1. Lenihan, 2. Bruton. Gilmore would be no. 3 in either case. Nobody else is at the races.

magpie seanie

Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 05:03:02 PM
Sorry, but I don't buy it. Kenny as leader is an electoral liability and the major mine in the road to government for FG. Bruton is the darling of the floating voter and the only and obvious choice FG has to make to copper fasten the election win is to install him as leader.

Listen to the people. I'd be willing to bet that an opinion poll asking who do the people think would be the best Taoiseach, lets say in a national government, would result in 1. Bruton, 2. Lenihan. Or perhaps 1. Lenihan, 2. Bruton. Gilmore would be no. 3 in either case. Nobody else is at the races.

Nail on the head.

no mo do yakamo

A lot of people working on tje assumption that Fianna fail wont lead the next Government, And that is a big dangerous assumption.
It wasn't even kennedy in the car.

Rossfan

The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man  ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....
Triple Connacht Champions

muppet

Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 05:03:02 PM
Sorry, but I don't buy it. Kenny as leader is an electoral liability and the major mine in the road to government for FG. Bruton is the darling of the floating voter and the only and obvious choice FG has to make to copper fasten the election win is to install him as leader.

Listen to the people. I'd be willing to bet that an opinion poll asking who do the people think would be the best Taoiseach, lets say in a national government, would result in 1. Bruton, 2. Lenihan. Or perhaps 1. Lenihan, 2. Bruton. Gilmore would be no. 3 in either case. Nobody else is at the races.

Give them 12 months with Bruton as leader of FG and the electorate won't see him the same way.

Of course Bruton will understand this (he was in the pub with David Davin-Power on Saturday) so the timing might be interesting. Does he see an election within 6 months (i.e. before the inevitable character assassination works)?
MWWSI 2017

Hardy

I think timing is a crucial part of it. In a way it's hard to see this government getting 12 months without some issue forcing it to the country.

Hardy

Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man  ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....

The thing will probably end in a draw.

Bord na Mona man

Bruton could be making the mistake of taking the FG leadership too early.
He'll get an initial bounce of popularity, but eventually people will start picking holes in his leadership and personality.


Bord na Mona man

Also, if Labour are still riding high in the polls towards and election, the Fianna Fail PR/rumour machine will go into overdrive.
Especially given the Democratic Left/Sticky element of the Labour party.
There will be plenty of mention of trips to Moscow, old acquaintances like Sean Garland, printing dollars etc,

An innuendo campaign manage to derail Adi Roche in the 1997 Presidential campaign where stores were put around of her being a bully. That said, in 1990 attempts by Pee Flynn to attack Mary Robinson's family life backfired.


Tatler Jack

In Meath Mayo clashes there is only one winner. Bruton can feel confident.

Ludraman

Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 07:20:45 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man  ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....

The thing will probably end in a draw.

think dis will end in a loss 4 both of dem. if bruten wins half da party will h8 him. if edna survives he is much weaker. time 4 a new young leader.

Turlough O Carolan

Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man  ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....

Enda himself is a bit more like a Mayo forward in the mid 80s. He has an open goal in front of him. He can't miss. Or can he?

mayogodhelpus@gmail.com

#59
Quote from: Turlough O Carolan on June 14, 2010, 09:41:24 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man  ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....

Enda himself is a bit more like a Mayo forward in the mid 80s. He has an open goal in front of him. He can't miss. Or can he?

Enda is of All-Ireland winning stock  ;D
Time to take a more chill-pill approach to life.