Predictions for each party please and then predict the next Government. (Last election in brackets). There are other thread for polls and policies.
Fianna Fail (77) -
Fine Gael (51) -
Labour (20) -
Green Party (6) -
Sinn Fein (4) -
PDs (2) -
Independents (6) -
* Ceann Comhairle Seamus Kirk (FF) will be automatically returned
FF 20
FG 56
Labour 40
GP 2
Shinners 15
Joe Higgins crowd 20
Indies 12
Fg Lab but it will only last until the default in 2012/13.
Fianna Fail (77) - 33
Fianna Gael (51) - 64
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 0
Sinn Fein (4) - 13
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 22
Very unscientifically I'll go for:
Fianna Fail (77) - 42
Fine Gael (51) - 66
Labour (20) - 33
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 12
FG/Lab coalition government after a long and painful series of talks.
Fianna Fail (77) - 40
Fianna Gael (51) - 60
Labour (20) - 35
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 18
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 12
Government = FF/Labour/SF/Independents coalition
Gilmore: The people have spoken we have a mandate
Blueshirts 64
Gilmore's Goons 39
FFBuildersbankers 34
Ex gunmen/young clean cut articulates 11
Gormless's clowns 1
Ming 1
United lefties/commies/stalinists /well meaning eejits 2
Independents 14
Fianna Fáil (77) - 28
Fine Gael (51) - 68
Labour (20) - 38
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Féin (4) - 15
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 16
FG - 71
Labour - 38
FF - 39
Shinners - 12
Greens - 1
Ragbags - 5
All set for a FG/Shinners/Michael Lowry coalition! :P
Quote from: Rossfan on February 03, 2011, 08:52:11 PM
Blueshirts 64
Gilmore's Goons 39
FFBuildersbankers 34
Ex gunmen/young clean cut articulates 11
Gormless's clowns 1
Ming 1
United lefties/commies/stalinists /well meaning eejits 2
Independents 14
Or
166 Overpaid Self serving elite
or
90 IMF Bitches
30 Liars, robbers bullshitters
20 bullshitters who done nothing and don't know how to do it
10 know nothing local councilors
6 Naive honest do gooders
Quote from: Stall the Bailer on February 04, 2011, 01:48:45 PM
166 Overpaid Self serving elite
or
90 IMF Bitches
30 Liars, robbers bullshitters
20 bullshitters who done nothing and don't know how to do it
10 know nothing local councilors
6 Naive honest do gooders
I actually don't think that the salary is high enough to attract decent candidates to the job - ministerial salaries are, but 85K for a bog standard td isn't enough to attract people to leave their careers for something that could last 5 yrs and in which they've little chance of promotion unless they've put in about 15yrs.
I like the other descriptions though.
My prediction is that we'll have the same thread again before Auld Lang Syne is sang on Jan 1st 2013.
I've just noticed that "bulshitters" is almost an anagram of "blueshirts".
What about "shinners"?
Fianna Fáil (77) - 51
Fine Gael (51) - 65
Labour (20) - 30
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Féin (4) - 10
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) -10
People will be scared and vote for the old reliables. Hope I'm wrong.
Quote from: Stall the Bailer on February 04, 2011, 01:48:45 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 03, 2011, 08:52:11 PM
Blueshirts 64
Gilmore's Goons 39
FFBuildersbankers 34
Ex gunmen/young clean cut articulates 11
Gormless's clowns 1
Ming 1
United lefties/commies/stalinists /well meaning eejits 2
Independents 14
Or
166 Overpaid Self serving elite
or
90 IMF Bitches
30 Liars, robbers bullshitters
20 bullshitters who done nothing and don't know how to do it
10 know nothing local councilors
6 Naive honest do gooders
What about the other 10 ? :D
Fianna Fail (77) - 47
Fianna Gael (51) - 56
Labour (20) - 35
Green Party (6) - 0
Sinn Fein (4) - 10
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 18
Fianna Fail (77) - 22 inc Ceann Comhairle
Fianna Gael (51) - 79
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents & lefties (6) - 17
Fine Gael - 81
Labour - 37
Green Party - 1
Sinn Fein - 12
Others - 17
Dev/Charlie/RayBurke/Bertie/LiamLawlor/Bev Party of Doom - 18
Who the f**k are Fianna Gael?
Quote from: magpie seanie on February 03, 2011, 08:47:52 PM
Very unscientifically I'll go for:
Fianna Fail (77) - 42
Fine Gael (51) - 66
Labour (20) - 33
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 12
FG/Lab coalition government after a long and painful series of talks.
I am recalibrating my estimate.
Fianna Fail (77) - 29
Fine Gael (51) - 76
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 0
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 15
Shot in the dark, haven't had time or inclination to do an 'AZ' on it.
Fianna Fail (77) - 30
Fianna Gael (51) - 74
Labour (20) - 31
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 10
PDs (2) - 0
United Left - 5
Independents (6) - 15
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2011, 09:50:57 AM
Shot in the dark, haven't had time or inclination to do an 'AZ' on it.
Fianna Fail (77) - 30
Fianna Gael (51) - 74
Labour (20) - 31
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 10
PDs (2) - 0
United Left - 5
Independents (6) - 15
Based on the tea bag left in my cup this morning;
Fianna Fail (77) - 24
Fianna Gael (51) - 79
Labour (20) - 26
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 13
PDs (2) - 0
United Left - 3
Independents (6) - 19
Fianna Fail (77) - 28
Fianna Gael (51) - 78
Labour (20) - 30
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) – 17
Fine Gael could sneak into the 80s with a little bit of luck. Enda could have 80-81 with Fianna Fail losing ground as a result.
It is next to impossible to predict the number of Independents who will make the cut as each case has to be judged on its individual merits and most if not all the go it alone brigade have concerns about local issues. I see Labour and Sinn Fein being involved in more long counts than either FF or FG. Both of those parties will be fighting for the last seat in a large number of constituencies. I'm reasonably happy with my predictions for the two larger parties but I'm hedging my bets on Lab and SF-- I'd allow a plus or minus three in both cases.
Fianna Fail (77) - 22 inc Ceann Comhairle
Fianna Gael (51) - 79
Labour (20) - 35
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents & lefties (6) - 17
Near enough the same as armaghniac
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 24, 2011, 03:35:38 AM
Who the f**k are Fianna Gael?
it's often difficult to tell the difference.
Are we still allowed to discuss the election or does the moratorium apply online too?
Quote from: Rossfan on February 03, 2011, 08:52:11 PM
Blueshirts 64
Gilmore's Goons 39
FFBuildersbankers 34
Ex gunmen/young clean cut articulates 11
Gormless's clowns 1
Ming 1
United lefties/commies/stalinists /well meaning eejits 2
Independents 14
Now revised
Blueshirts 69
Gilmore's Goons 34
FFBuildersbankers 35
Ex gunmen / young clean cut shinies/Marylou 11
Gormless's clowns 1
Ming 1
United lefties/commies/stalinists /well meaning eejits 2
Independents 13
Kenny/Gilbore (was he ever a member of the IRA) will both throw away their
works of fiction manifestos next week and publish their programme for Government most of which will never be achieved but sure what the hell. At least the FFingers will be gone from the pie.
Fianna Fáil (77) - 23
Fine Gael (51) - 70
Labour (20) - 35
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Féin (4) - 19
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 17
Does this give enough for the predicted FG/Labour govt?? Poor bastards trying to clean up someone else's mess :-[
Quote from: sammymaguire on February 24, 2011, 04:47:35 PM
Fianna Fáil (77) - 23
Fine Gael (51) - 70
Labour (20) - 35
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Féin (4) - 19
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 17
Does this give enough for the predicted FG/Labour govt?? Poor b**tards trying to clean up someone else's mess :-[
Yeah sure they only need 84 isn't it?
Quote from: Tubberman on February 24, 2011, 04:50:15 PM
Quote from: sammymaguire on February 24, 2011, 04:47:35 PM
Fianna Fáil (77) - 23
Fine Gael (51) - 70
Labour (20) - 35
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Féin (4) - 19
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 17
Does this give enough for the predicted FG/Labour govt?? Poor b**tards trying to clean up someone else's mess :-[
Yeah sure they only need 84 isn't it?
Not sure, in that case, maybe they will drag the Indos along to be whipped into line...?
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 24, 2011, 03:35:38 AM
Who the f**k are Fianna Gael?
It is the new party that will be formed after tomorrow's caning for FF. ;D
That and a typo.
Final tally:
FG: 76
Labour: 37
FF: 20
Ind: 15
SF: 14
Others: 4
We have a winner:
Quote from: magpie seanie on February 24, 2011, 09:49:41 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on February 03, 2011, 08:47:52 PM
Very unscientifically I'll go for:
Fianna Fail (77) - 42
Fine Gael (51) - 66
Labour (20) - 33
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 12
FG/Lab coalition government after a long and painful series of talks.
I am recalibrating my estimate.
Fianna Fail (77) - 29
Fine Gael (51) - 76
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 0
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 15
People didn't vote for FF in the end after all. They got their proper comeuppance in most cases. The Greens were wiped too and Labour got a few seats in the end to stop single party government.
I thought there was only one chance, Muppet :)
Therefore the unrevised Armaghniac would be my winner
Reply #15 on: February 24, 2011, 12:30:15 AM »
Fianna Fail (77) - 22 inc Ceann Comhairle
Fianna Gael (51) - 79
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents & lefties (6) - 17
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 02:03:57 PM
I thought there was only one chance, Muppet :)
Therefore the unrevised Armaghniac would be my winner
Reply #15 on: February 24, 2011, 12:30:15 AM »
Fianna Fail (77) - 22 inc Ceann Comhairle
Fianna Gael (51) - 79
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents & lefties (6) - 17
Sammy and Croi were close as well but Seanie scored some direct hits so he wins.
Armaniac only scored one direct hit but he was closer with his other predictions.
Seanie had 2 direct hits but was way out on FF prediction.
Sammy was further out
Croi followed Armaniac.
Consistency with a small margin of error, has more value.
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 03:38:54 PM
Armaniac only scored one direct hit but he was closer with his other predictions.
Seanie had 2 direct hits but was way out on FF prediction.
Sammy was further out
Croi followed Armaniac.
Consistency with a small margin of error, has more value.
I don't accept that.
This was the cheapest prediction thread in the world.
We have turned the corner.
I did nothing wrong.
The EU agrees with everything I did.
Quote from: muppet on March 01, 2011, 03:43:04 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 03:38:54 PM
Armaniac only scored one direct hit but he was closer with his other predictions.
Seanie had 2 direct hits but was way out on FF prediction.
Sammy was further out
Croi followed Armaniac.
Consistency with a small margin of error, has more value.
I don't accept that.
This was the cheapest prediction thread in the world.
We have turned the corner.
I did nothing wrong.
The EU agrees with everything I did.
You are not talking to the IMF. Not at all.
You have 20bn in cash and a plan to return to the market
Quote from: seafoid on March 01, 2011, 03:49:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 01, 2011, 03:43:04 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 03:38:54 PM
Armaniac only scored one direct hit but he was closer with his other predictions.
Seanie had 2 direct hits but was way out on FF prediction.
Sammy was further out
Croi followed Armaniac.
Consistency with a small margin of error, has more value.
I don't accept that.
This was the cheapest prediction thread in the world.
We have turned the corner.
I did nothing wrong.
The EU agrees with everything I did.
You are not talking to the IMF. Not at all.
You have 20bn in cash and a plan to return to the market
It was Lehman's what dun it.
QuoteTherefore the unrevised Armaghniac would be my winner
Labour took 3 seats that might have gone to FG, my total of the two is correct.
Anyhow I robbed my prediction from somebody on the radio!
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 03:38:54 PM
Armaniac only scored one direct hit but he was closer with his other predictions.
Seanie had 2 direct hits but was way out on FF prediction.
Sammy was further out
Croi followed Armaniac.
Consistency with a small margin of error, has more value.
I was closer, where do I go to pick up my prize?
Quote from: muppet on March 01, 2011, 01:42:51 PM
Final tally:
FG: 76
Labour: 37
FF: 20
Ind: 15
SF: 14
Others: 4
We have a winner:
Quote from: magpie seanie on February 24, 2011, 09:49:41 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on February 03, 2011, 08:47:52 PM
Very unscientifically I'll go for:
Fianna Fail (77) - 42
Fine Gael (51) - 66
Labour (20) - 33
Green Party (6) - 1
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 12
FG/Lab coalition government after a long and painful series of talks.
I am recalibrating my estimate.
Fianna Fail (77) - 29
Fine Gael (51) - 76
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 0
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents (6) - 15
I was out on FF as I feared the sanctity of the ballot box would encourage a return to bad habits. Thankfully, the opposite was the case. People came out to specifically nail FF and apart from the first preferences the transfers bear this out. The others just cannot make the pencil move from the FF candidate.
Quote from: armaghniac on March 01, 2011, 04:01:12 PM
QuoteTherefore the unrevised Armaghniac would be my winner
Labour took 3 seats that might have gone to FG, my total of the two is correct.
Anyhow I robbed my prediction from somebody on the radio!
This prediction thread has no credibility.
Not only are the posters plagiarising their predictions but the self appointed autocratic judge just makes up the criteria at the end (like FIFA) so that it favours his bosom buddy.
The german minister of defense had to resign for less
Quote from: Croí na hÉireann on March 01, 2011, 04:13:17 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 03:38:54 PM
Armaniac only scored one direct hit but he was closer with his other predictions.
Seanie had 2 direct hits but was way out on FF prediction.
Sammy was further out
Croi followed Armaniac.
Consistency with a small margin of error, has more value.
I was closer, where do I go to pick up my prize?
I think I deserve to pick up the prize, Fermanagh people need all the trophies we can get our hands on :P
QuoteI think I deserve to pick up the prize, Fermanagh people need all the trophies we can get our hands on
Anyone from Fermanagh called Sam Maguire deserves a prize for imagination !!
QuoteAnyone from Fermanagh called Sam Maguire deserves a prize for imagination !!
Fermanagh is the home of the Maguires.
KM. Surely you prefer a Fermanagh Sam Maguire to a Cork Sam Maguire.
One exists the other doesn't.
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 02:03:57 PM
I thought there was only one chance, Muppet :)
Therefore the unrevised Armaghniac would be my winner
Reply #15 on: February 24, 2011, 12:30:15 AM »
Fianna Fail (77) - 22 inc Ceann Comhairle
Fianna Gael (51) - 79
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents & lefties (6) - 17
No way, waiting until the day before the election is cheating, in fact the moratorium was probably in place by then, so it may actually have been illegal!!
By a similar token Seanie's revised selection is also invalid and so I declare myself the winner based on the fact that I said in the 2007 election thread that FG/Lab would take the next election, and that the greens would be wiped out for sipping from the poisoned cup.
If anyone has any complaints about that the result, contact Mr. Richard Roche of Greystones, Co. Wicklow. He is an expert in the legality or otherwise of results in contests such as this and between you maybe a class action can be launched.
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 01, 2011, 07:10:22 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 02:03:57 PM
I thought there was only one chance, Muppet :)
Therefore the unrevised Armaghniac would be my winner
Reply #15 on: February 24, 2011, 12:30:15 AM »
Fianna Fail (77) - 22 inc Ceann Comhairle
Fianna Gael (51) - 79
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents & lefties (6) - 17
No way, waiting until the day before the election is cheating, in fact the moratorium was probably in place by then, so it may actually have been illegal!!
By a similar token Seanie's revised selection is also invalid and so I declare myself the winner based on the fact that I said in the 2007 election thread that FG/Lab would take the next election, and that the greens would be wiped out for sipping from the poisoned cup.
If anyone has any complaints about that the result, contact Mr. Richard Roche of Greystones, Co. Wicklow. He is an expert in the legality or otherwise of results in contests such as this and between you maybe a class action can be launched.
One is convinced by this argument and also that the day after the blanket guarantee you said that it could be the biggest bluff in the history of the State. You are declared winner.
First prize is dinner for two with Main Street (he is paying).
Now wise sage, how are Mayo going to do this year?
Quote from: muppet on March 01, 2011, 08:42:42 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 01, 2011, 07:10:22 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 01, 2011, 02:03:57 PM
I thought there was only one chance, Muppet :)
Therefore the unrevised Armaghniac would be my winner
Reply #15 on: February 24, 2011, 12:30:15 AM »
Fianna Fail (77) - 22 inc Ceann Comhairle
Fianna Gael (51) - 79
Labour (20) - 34
Green Party (6) - 2
Sinn Fein (4) - 12
PDs (2) - 0
Independents & lefties (6) - 17
No way, waiting until the day before the election is cheating, in fact the moratorium was probably in place by then, so it may actually have been illegal!!
By a similar token Seanie's revised selection is also invalid and so I declare myself the winner based on the fact that I said in the 2007 election thread that FG/Lab would take the next election, and that the greens would be wiped out for sipping from the poisoned cup.
If anyone has any complaints about that the result, contact Mr. Richard Roche of Greystones, Co. Wicklow. He is an expert in the legality or otherwise of results in contests such as this and between you maybe a class action can be launched.
One is convinced by this argument and also that the day after the blanket guarantee you said that it could be the biggest bluff in the history of the State. You are declared winner.
First prize is dinner for two with Main Street (he is paying).
Now wise sage, how are Mayo going to do this year?
There were a fair few on here who called that and other disastrous policies. It now looks as though the dept of finance also warned them against most of their decisions, but they were ignored too - it's a least heartening to know that they could see what was coming and that their advice was rejected should be the final nail in the FF coffin. Honestly, to me this is the worst thing to come out over the past few years. Other scandals like the seanie meetings, the golden circle etc etc could at least be excused on the grounds of irrational exuberance/confidence/stupidity, but the fact that their own civil servants warned them that the path they were pursuing was folly and were ignored is unforgiveable.
As for Mayo:
Retain Div. 1 status, just about.
Lose to Rossies in the Connaught final, could have beaten them handily, but it was the key element of the deal thrashed out between Enda and Ming.
Manage to battle through to the all ireland final after Mickey Moran dramatically leaves Leitrim midway through the summer and regalvinises Mayo. Unfortunately Kerry are the opponents. I'll leave it at that.
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 01, 2011, 09:18:18 PM
Now wise sage, how are Mayo going to do this year?
Manage to battle through to the all ireland final after Mickey Moran dramatically leaves Leitrim midway through the summer and regalvinises Mayo. Unfortunately Kerry are the opponents. I'll leave it at that.
[/quote]
Not even Ming himself could swing that for ye :D
Quote from: Rossfan on March 01, 2011, 09:47:45 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 01, 2011, 09:18:18 PM
Now wise sage, how are Mayo going to do this year?
Manage to battle through to the all ireland final after Mickey Moran dramatically leaves Leitrim midway through the summer and regalvinises Mayo. Unfortunately Kerry are the opponents. I'll leave it at that.
Not even Ming himself could swing that for ye :D
[/quote]
aye, but you never know, Enda has connections with Kerry football and isn't michael healy rae in the heartbed of Kerry football, time for the Healy Rae party to give up something if they want to be part of the grand coalition?