I note that My Will is a short as 7/1 with some bookies. Ted Walsh has been talking up Southern Vic (14/1) over the weekend and Butlers Cabin (whom I backed heavily last year >:() has moved into single figures. At a bigger price Kilbeggan Blade looks attractive at 25/1 (Ladbrokes) though Paddy Power has moved it from 33's into 20's. Anyone else any fancies??
My main concern is catching my flight on Friday ;D can't wait. I have already done a couple of small bets to keep the interest up but the betting will begin on Fri once we arrive.
Black Appalchi... Plus I will get my bigger priced selection picked out during the week...
L'ami and War of Attrition
safer doing the National.........................lottery :D
was there a Aintree fantasy league type thing last year like we've recently had for cheltenham?
Im doing stewarding work at the national. If i hear any tips ill let you know!
Quote from: youngfella on March 30, 2009, 04:31:47 PM
Im doing stewarding work at the national. If i hear any tips ill let you know!
Any chance of getting us into the classier section youngfella? We're in Tattersalls eclosure. How tights security?
Quote from: SidelineKick on March 30, 2009, 04:33:14 PM
Quote from: youngfella on March 30, 2009, 04:31:47 PM
Im doing stewarding work at the national. If i hear any tips ill let you know!
Any chance of getting us into the classier section youngfella? We're in Tattersalls eclosure. How tights security?
Correct SLK...Youngfella we are in with the peasants could you get us upgraded so we can look at the high class totties...Jasus i wish we had T Fearon with us as we'd be up there with the director...lol
Quote from: illdecide on March 30, 2009, 04:54:20 PM
Quote from: SidelineKick on March 30, 2009, 04:33:14 PM
Quote from: youngfella on March 30, 2009, 04:31:47 PM
Im doing stewarding work at the national. If i hear any tips ill let you know!
Any chance of getting us into the classier section youngfella? We're in Tattersalls eclosure. How tights security?
Correct SLK...Youngfella we are in with the peasants could you get us upgraded so we can look at the high class totties...Jasus i wish we had T Fearon with us as we'd be up there with the director...lol
Not our style illdecide, not our style at all. Youngfella any strings you can pull? We don't want to be in with people in jeans, isn't that right illdecide :D :P
We'll throw you a few quid. (Few being the key word)
Security is going to be fairly tight. Ticket and band checks on very one, im sure a blind eye could be turn too a few (few being the key word) people if it was made worth while ;)
What days have use got tickets for? Ill see what i can do :)
Quote from: youngfella on March 30, 2009, 05:19:07 PM
Security is going to be fairly tight. Ticket and band checks on very one, im sure a blind eye could be turn too a few (few being the key word) people if it was made worth while ;)
What days have use got tickets for? Ill see what i can do :)
Friday - Ladies day, i have my lipstick and highheels out and polished and ready for action. Sideline Fitzroyalty reckons your buying the 1st round of alcohol...
Youngfella you sort us out and i'll c u right when i get my new glasses
Quote from: illdecide on March 30, 2009, 05:23:02 PM
Quote from: youngfella on March 30, 2009, 05:19:07 PM
Security is going to be fairly tight. Ticket and band checks on very one, im sure a blind eye could be turn too a few (few being the key word) people if it was made worth while ;)
What days have use got tickets for? Ill see what i can do :)
Friday - Ladies day, i have my lipstick and highheels out and polished and ready for action. Sideline Fitzroyalty reckons your buying the 1st round of alcohol...
Youngfella you sort us out and i'll c u right when i get my new glasses
No bother at all, I'm gonna act like a big shot over there anyway :D one more round isn't gonna make any difference! Jesus its a dear weekend and I haven't even had a drink yet!!
Youngfella there for ladies day and the national (there's only 4 of us so if you have to choose between my crowd and illdecide's ((there's 50 of them)) then its your choice ;))
illdecided, sold you out already :D that round should make up for it.
illdecide & sk there on the same day :'(
The ladies would be better of turning lezzers for the day
Lets be honest lads, neither of you are oil paintings & with a few pints in ye you will think you are f**king great.
i honestly pity any women in Liverpool on Friday
Quote from: full back on March 30, 2009, 05:27:27 PM
illdecide & sk there on the same day :'(
The ladies would be better of turning lezzers for the day
Lets be honest lads, neither of you are oil paintings & with a few pints in ye you will think you are f**king great.
i honestly pity any women in Liverpool on Friday
In all fairness i pity them too...
A younger looking Richard Gere is on his way...FB it sounds like your a we bit jealous :D :D ;D
Jesus a young Richard Gere and a young Brad Pitt running around at Aintree, jesus the women will be in for some shock. I've already made out cards with my autograph on them to hand out, saves having to sign loads of them at the course.
Am jealous indeed, but not of your looks :D
Make sure you tell the females that you, sk & the crowd of inbreds you are with is in no way a representation of the men on this island
Quote from: SidelineKick on March 30, 2009, 05:35:26 PM
I've already made out cards with my autograph on them to hand out, saves having to sign loads of them at the course.
The only thing your autograpgh will be on is your bail form or the credit card bill from Angels ;)
Quote from: full back on March 30, 2009, 05:37:00 PM
Quote from: SidelineKick on March 30, 2009, 05:35:26 PM
I've already made out cards with my autograph on them to hand out, saves having to sign loads of them at the course.
The only thing your autograpgh will be on is your bail form or the credit card bill from Angels ;)
#
What's Angels?? :D ;)
I havent being told yet were abouts on racecourse am working, I could be looking after the redrum statue all weekend or in the queen mother stand. Ill let ye know were i am when i find out, which could be as late as ladys day. However I'll be able to work it abit better on national day itself for you sideline ;), call it a tenner a head and 10% of winnings :D
Quote from: youngfella on March 30, 2009, 05:40:38 PM
I havent being told yet were abouts on racecourse am working, I could be looking after the redrum statue all weekend or in the queen mother stand. Ill let ye know were i am when i find out, which could be as late as ladys day. However I'll be able to work it abit better on national day itself for you sideline ;), call it a tenner a head and 10% of winnings :D
What's 10% of nothing? :D
We'll sort you out youngfella, even the one day would be good enough! National day would be just great ;D
Quote from: SidelineKick on March 30, 2009, 05:37:52 PM
Quote from: full back on March 30, 2009, 05:37:00 PM
Quote from: SidelineKick on March 30, 2009, 05:35:26 PM
I've already made out cards with my autograph on them to hand out, saves having to sign loads of them at the course.
The only thing your autograpgh will be on is your bail form or the credit card bill from Angels ;)
#
What's Angels?? :D ;)
Friend of a friend told me its a good spot
Music & beer & that, much like a disco or nightclub thingy
No bother will let you know SK
Cheers youngfella!
Quote from: SidelineKick on March 30, 2009, 04:33:14 PM
Quote from: youngfella on March 30, 2009, 04:31:47 PM
Im doing stewarding work at the national. If i hear any tips ill let you know!
Any chance of getting us into the classier section youngfella? We're in Tattersalls eclosure. How tights security?
;D There is no classier section at Aintree.....nor will the totty be "top".... good for a laugh though.
Quote from: milltown row on March 30, 2009, 02:21:59 PM
L'ami and War of Attrition
War of Attrition ruled out of the race apparently.
Anyway nobody on here can risk any money until we've heard the musings of Hardy.
He has an unbelievable record of predicting the finishers of the race since I've been on the board. Has gotten me two winners in last two years and a few each ways also.
Hardy's recent analysis of the races has been excellent
Whats the story this year?
was there not a formula on here a year or two ago that had certain conditions and when applied you ended up with four or five horses. i think it had three out of the top five two years ago including the winner? ???
I think Nails's tip "Black Apalachi" will have a very good chance...
I will apply the same hardyarse logic i have applied the past 2 years winning me about 400 quid to date. He has done more for Tyrone Meath relations over the aintree festival than could ever be achieved even if Martin Mc Connell was to rescind his all ireland medal hand it to Dooher and admit all his wrongdoings.
Quote from: illdecide on March 31, 2009, 09:32:35 AM
I think Nails's tip "Black Apalachi" will have a very good chance...
He would have an excellent chance if only it would rain (very heavily) but that's just not going to happen and I'd imagine if the ground continues to get much firmer he may not run at all.
Quote from: Homer on March 31, 2009, 10:10:04 AM
Quote from: illdecide on March 31, 2009, 09:32:35 AM
I think Nails's tip "Black Apalachi" will have a very good chance...
He would have an excellent chance if only it would rain (very heavily) but that's just not going to happen and I'd imagine if the ground continues to get much firmer he may not run at all.
That is the worry Homer... though this below is taken from the RP...
QuoteWITH Merseyside expected to enjoy an early taste of summer for the John Smith's Grand National meeting, a course watering programme began on Monday and is likely to continue for much of the week.
A Met Office spokesman told racingpost.com on Monday that there was no rain included in the forecast this week, and by Friday temperatures may climb to between 15c-16c. The average for the area in the first weekof April was 11c.
Aintree clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch and his team gave the entire Mildmay course between 4mm-6mm on Monday, and the ground there is good.
The Grand National course, which is good, good to soft in places, will be watered on Tuesday, with amounts varying between 3mm-6mm.
Tulloch said: "The National course is generally good ground, with just the odd spot of good to soft. We will water to maintain safe conditions, and if necessary that may include watering after racing on Thursday and Friday."
He added: "The various forecasters agree that it will be quite warm by Friday, and one has suggested temperatures may be up to 18c."
So lets all start our rain dances, if only for Sideline, illdecide and Youngfella to get drenched!! :D
Thats cruel Nail...When me and sideline are running around half lamped chatting to the lovely females and punting away I'll remember your stuck in that pokey office watching them losers gambling on two fly's on the screen or any other thing that moves...lol
Just you get the tips to us so we can accumulate enough for a high class escort that will show us the sights around Liverpool ;)
Quote from: illdecide on March 31, 2009, 11:36:29 AM
Just you get the tips to us so we can accumulate enough for a high class escort that will show us the sights around Liverpool ;)
You wont need that much money for
any class of escort to show you around Liverpool ;)
I fancy parsons legacy or rambling minister.both like the good ground which it most certainly will be plus have form at longer distances.the weights are winnng weights plus parsons legacy was well respected last year before he got injured before the race and many thought he would do it.my will is 7/1 now very short ante post for a national.bookies will make a killiing on him as most people just back cause of the ruby factor personally cant see him do it.
Il probably regret saying that ::)
Its naps for Friday i need!!! let me know lads if you fancy anything on Friday
Got this mail this morning
Age:
•In the last 68 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National
•In the last 85 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National, and no 13 year old has made the frame since 1969.
•It's 95 years since a six year old was last victorious.
•No runner aged 6, 7, 13 or 14 has won or been placed in the Grand National since WW2.
•9-11 year olds have best records because of experience and peak physical condition.
•The peak for a staying chaser is thought to be around 9 - 10 years old. Grand National trends back this up with 10 of the last thirteen winners being aged nine or ten.
•Runners aged between ten and twelve have won 12 of the last 19 renewals
•34 9-year-olds have won the Grand National since 1900. Eleven-year-olds also have a good record in the Grand National.
•Horses aged in double figures have won 12 of the last 18 renewals with 9 year olds also fairing well (5 wins in the last 12 years).
•Eleven out of the last 17 winners were aged ten or above but nine is the new ten and horses are so well trained now that nine year olds are very much in favour.
•The 2008 winner Comply or Die was aged 9 and four of the first five home were 9 or 10.
Weight:
•Since the war only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs and two of those were by the incredible Red Rum! Only one horse in the last 51 years (Red Rum) has won the race carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs.
•Only 2 horses carrying 11st 5lbs or more completed the race last year (neither finished in the first 10 home), with one completing the race the previous year.
• Only one horse in the last 25 years has carried more than 11 stone to victory.
• 23 out of the last 26 winners of the Aintree Grand National were carrying less than 11 stone.
•Only eleven participants in the last 22 years have even been placed carrying more than 11 stone.
Stamina:
• Since 1970 every winner had previously won over 3 miles or more.
• The 2008 winner Comply or Die had confirmed his stamina by previously winning chases over three miles or further, including the four mile + totesport idor chase at Newbury.
• Not all horses entered will actually have won in previous races over long distances but try to pick one that has at least finished and placed in one.
Class:
• Only one horse with a rating of over 154 has won the Grand National and only two have been placed in the last 19 years.
• In the last 22 years every winner ran off an offical rating of between 136 and 157 with only 2 horses winning from ""out of the handicap"". In 2008 the winner Comply or Die was rated 139, with Silver Birch rated 138 in 2007.
• Consider horses rated between 136 and 145 as this group has provided every single winner for the past decade.
Performance:
• Each of the last 12 winners had proven ability in a top race and had won a race worth at least £17,000.
• Last years winner had proven himself in good class races including winning the £30,000 Totesport Eidor
Jumping:
• All of the last 12 winners had run at least ten times over fences before big day at Aintree.
• Horses to have run over hurdles that season (or be lighlty raced over fences) may indicate that the trainer may have been protecting
the horse chase handicap mark for the Grand National.
• 5 OF THE LAST 6 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL
• Try to avoid horses who have fallen more than twice in their careers. Novices should also be avoided.
Sex/Colour:
• Only 13 mares have won the Aintree Grand National.
• The last mare to win the Grand National was in 1951.
• Only two greys have won the Grand National in the history of the event.
Fitness:
• The Grand National is run around four weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and many horses will have been trained so that they peak in time for Cheltenham, not Aintree.
• In recent years only Silver Birch (second the Cross Country) and Bindaree (sixth in the William Hill Chase) have gone on to win the Grand National after racing at Cheltenham. Many others have tried and failed.
• 2008 winner Comply or Die did not run at Cheltenham. His last race before the Grand National was the Totesport Eider on 23 February giving him over 40 days break before the Grand national.
• Golden Miller remains the only horse to have won the Grand National and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the same year.
• Every winner in the past 10 years had had at least four runs prior, in preparation for the big race.
• Each of the past 10 winners had previously run in the past two months.
• Between 1995 and 2004 the National winners ran between 16 and 42 days previously. Lord Gylenne ran second in the Midlands National.
National Form:
• Since 1998 only one horse that has been placed or indeed won in the previous years national has gone onto win the following year.
• Since 1998 3 horses have won the national after failing to finish the reace the previous year.
• Only three horses in the history of the National have won the race in consecutive years. Red Rum the most recent (1973-4).
• Since 1990 13 horses have gone for the double but the results speak for themselves (PPPPP00464026).
• Since 1990 four winners failed to complete the Grand National course the year before.
• In the last 22 years, 20 of the horses finishing in the first four ran in the previous year's race. Of those, 9 had won or been placed before, seven had failed to complete the course and five completed but were out of the frame
• Six of the last seven winners had run over the national fences before.
• Only four horses have won back-to-back Grand Nationals.
Betting:
• Only 4 Grand National favorites have won in the last 26 years. Comply Or Die was the latest in 2008
• Only 3 Grand National winners from the last 13 have been bigger than 16/1 at the start of the race. Silver Birch was the latest in 2007.
• Middle of the Grand National betting market seems to be key as 11/1 shot Numbersixvalverde proved on 2007.
• 14 of the last 17 winners were in the top 8 in the betting
• The race is rarely won by a horse with odds of less than 10/1 (only five since 1978).
Country Bred:
• There have been 6 Irish winners in the last 10 renewals. In 2008, 4 of the first 5 home were Irish trained.
• French bred runners have a poor record, mostly due to the fact that ivery few races n France are run beyond three miles, so breederes have no need to install strong stamina genes into there stock. They are also trained harder at a younger age so once they get to eight or nine they are ususally past there best.
Jumping:
• 5 OF THE LAST 6 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL
Jockey/Trainer
• Some trainers have a better history of training staying chasers and particularly Grand National winners than others. In recent years Nigel Twiston Davies has trained two runners to victory, whilst Ginger McCain won his fourth Grand National with Amberleigh House.
• Grand National trends - pay attention to runners from stables with a history of training good staying chasers and Grand National winners but don't place too much emphasis on this.
• A P McCoy is one of the greatest ever jump jockeys yet he has never won a Grand National!
Headgear:
• Horses wearing headgear of any sort managed just one Grand National victory since 1975 from 138 starters.
Cheltenham:
• Only one horse has followed up a Cheltenham win with a win in the Grand National in the same year since 1961.
• The Gold Cup has produced 3 winners and 9 placed horses since 1987. 10 of those 12 finished second, third, fourth or fifth.
Hennessy Gold Cup:
• In the last 20 years this race has produced 7 winners, along with 11 placed horses. Of those 18, 13 finished in the first five in this race.
Irish National:
• Provided 5 winners and 1 placed horse in the last 20 years, with 4 of those winners all coming in the last eight renewals.
• Two horses have actually managed the big race double.
Welsh National:
• The Welsh National has thrown up 10 win & placed horses in the last 20 years – although only one horse has done the double in this time.
If ye managed to analyse that then so far a shortlist of 9 horses (subject to change). At 100-1 I fancy Reveillez to maybe run into a place for Jonjo O'Neill and the other ones i really fancy are, Darkness, Rambling Minster Kilbeggan Blade and State of Play. At the current odds it might be worth while backing all of them EW.
STATE OF PLAY Evan Williams
SILVER BIRCH (CD) G Elliott
BUTLER'S CABIN Jonjo O'Neill
PARSONS LEGACY P J Hobbs
REVEILLEZ Jonjo O'Neill
CORNISH SETT P F Nicholls
DARKNESS C R Egerton
RAMBLING MINSTER K G Reveley
KILBEGGAN BLADE T R George
State of plays odds has shortened well the last few days if i remember correctly.
illdecide when i am in the bookies friday i will be backing these horses in aintree
Michael flips
Scotsirish
kayf aramis
kerada.
These are my fancies and i repeat NOT TIPS.
I accept no responsibility for any money lost on these horses or injuries incurred from losing money on these horses ;D
p.s if lough derg is runnung friday have a small each way bet on it as this is the william wallace of horse racing.
a legend of a horse and will always try.
Quote from: rossie mad on April 01, 2009, 11:52:55 AM
State of plays odds has shortened well the last few days if i remember correctly.
illdecide when i am in the bookies friday i will be backing these horses in aintree
Michael flips
Scotsirish
kayf aramis
kerada.
These are my fancies and i repeat NOT TIPS.
I accept no responsibility for any money lost on these horses or injuries incurred from losing money on these horses ;D
p.s if lough derg is runnung friday have a small each way bet on it as this is the william wallace of horse racing.
a legend of a horse and will always try.
In the first race tomorrow
QuoteIf ye managed to analyse that then so far a shortlist of 9 horses (subject to change). At 100-1 I fancy Reveillez to maybe run into a place for Jonjo O'Neill and the other ones i really fancy are, Darkness, Rambling Minster Kilbeggan Blade and State of Play. At the current odds it might be worth while backing all of them EW.
STATE OF PLAY Evan Williams
SILVER BIRCH (CD) G Elliott
BUTLER'S CABIN Jonjo O'Neill
PARSONS LEGACY P J Hobbs
REVEILLEZ Jonjo O'Neill
CORNISH SETT P F Nicholls
DARKNESS C R Egerton
RAMBLING MINSTER K G Reveley
KILBEGGAN BLADE T R George
Has Sligonian seen this? With the weekend that's in it....
Ironic isnt the word :o
Aye i like that old war horse "Lough Derg". Bar his last run in Cheltenham you are usually guaranteed a good run from him and a run for your money. Do you know what price he is tomorrow?
im only guessing here but you are looking at between 10/1 and 16/1 id say.
He has form here but is likely to be high in the weights.
Still his big hearted efforts usually counter act this disadvantage.
hardy where are your tips this year ?
Have to sit down and finish the stats. The ones I use were originally compiled by neigh.co.uk, though I interpret them a little differently, plus a few more I dug out. Most of them would be in Declan's post above.
The main ones - weight, age, current season record, record in big fields, jumping record, etc. are well known at this stage. On a first look it seems as if that fact is having an effect. It looks as though a lot of horses meet all the main criteria this year and that may be because connections know the required profile and are entering fewer no-hopers. The upshot is that it doesn't look as if it will come down, like other years, to 3, 4 or 5 contenders (based on the stats) so that you could back them all and hope to be in profit. We'll see.
Fair play Hardy and tonights lotto numbers if you get a chance
Aintree 15.45 BACKSTAGE
Whats your views on Denman today.. personally i am swaying towards exotic dancer
Big bucks wins the first ;D ;D
Any tips for next race T O' Hare
Just done Lough dearg each way there and i might as well off got my £10 and threw it at the cops >:(
lovely ride by ruby
couldnt give lough derg away in the betting
Had a small sentimental bet on him all the same but alas the auld fella finished last
still ran his race the way he always does.
migthy man hit the last hard and made a mistake and might have made it harder for big bucks on the run in.
Fancy walk on in the next.
Quote from: youbetterbelieveit on April 02, 2009, 02:11:19 PM
Any tips for next race T O' Hare
;D ;D ;D i cant pick my nose right, cant choose between starluck and walkon
Thankfully picked the right one ;D walkon wins easily
Something similar that was posted the other day but he tips a few himself...
> The Best Financial Advice of 2008 Returns... Neil's Grand National Tips
> for 2009.
>
> Share
>
> Yesterday at 21:58
>
> Hello friends and welcome to what has become my annual dice with utter
> humiliation, published for the very first time on Facebook.
>
> For the uninitiated / confused, allow me to explain. Nowadays I work for
> totesport - one of the UK's biggest bookies - and for the last 3 years
> I've tried to pass on some insider knowledge on the big race with some
> degree of success.
>
> Helped by a trusted colleagues' analysis of National runners, we have to
> date delivered a shortlist that's always included the eventual winner.
> Then I whittle down the remainder using my own skill and judgment, and
> some (I hope!) will remember we came up trumps last year with my winning
> tip - Comply or Die.
>
> So in the expectation that lightening ultimately never strikes twice it's
> time to apply the winning formula once again...
>
> As I say every year, the Grand National is anything but the lottery many
> think it is and over the last 20 years the winning horses tick all or
> nearly all of the following boxes:
>
> * No horse has carried more than 11 stone 1lb to victory since 1983. Given
> the quality of horses this year I've increased the maximum weight criteria
> to 11st 3lbs for purposes of the shortlist.
> * It will have already won a race of 3 miles or more.
> * It will have won a race contested by 13 or more runners.
> * It will have an Official Rating of between 136 and 154.
> * It will be aged 8-12, and probably at least 2 seasons of chase racing
> experience.
> * It won't have been bred in France.
> * It will have some form this season, probably a minimum of one top 3
> finish to its' name
>
> If you ignore all other stats, remember to always pick a "stayer" i.e. a
> horse that based on past performances has the stamina to run competitively
> at 4 miles+. Also factor in the weight it has to lug around. Theoretically
> the better the horse the more weight it carries, so try to pick one that
> has had a good result after the weights are announced in February which
> indicate the handicapper may have under rated it.
>
> Applying the above logic we can reduce the starting field of 40 to the
> following shortlist of 10 potential winners (best available bookmaker
> prices in brackets)...
>
> Brooklyn Brownie (33/1), Butlers Cabin (10/1), Cornish Sett (33/1),
> Darkness (22/1), Himalayan Trail (33/1), Kilbeggan Blade (22/1), Parsons
> Legacy (16/1), Rambling Minster (11/1), Southern Vic (28/1) and State of
> Play (14/1)
>
> And now for those dreaded tips...
>
> With 75% of the field jettisoned, including last years winner Comply or
> Die and current favourite My Will (both carrying too much weight,
> questionable form) allow me to eliminate the final 10 in an X-Factor type
> way.
>
> First to go are Cornish Sett, Himalyan Trail and Brooklyn Brownie, none of
> whom have enough class to challenge in my view, and Southern Vic who won't
> like the firmer ground expected (never know with the weather up here
> though!?).
>
> Next to go is Butlers Cabin. You may recall I tipped this one as an each
> way choice last year (he was going well until falling on the second
> circuit) but subsequent form hasn't been great, and the fact that champion
> jockey Tony McCoy hasn't confirmed he'll be riding it at the time of
> writing suggests he's not convinced either.
>
> Parsons Legacy's odds have tumbled this week after being recommended by a
> tipping site. He'll go well on good ground and I wouldn't say much to put
> you off a bet on him to be honest other than he hasn't raced in 2009 so is
> a bit of an unknown quantity.
>
> However, for my first bet this year I'll be taking a plunge into DARKNESS
> (good pun Neil pat on the back). Apparently this horse isn't a fan of big
> crowded fields which let's be honest doesn't bode well but if his jockey
> keeps him out of trouble he has the class to go very close.
>
> STATE OF PLAY is a tip given to me by our chief racing trader so I
> wouldn't advise against an each-way bet on this one either.
>
> My final each-way tip is RAMBLING MINSTER. He ticks all the past trend
> boxes better than most, is in cracking form and would get my 5* selection
> but for one nagging doubt. His last defeat back in December was to a horse
> also running in the National who will benefit from a 6lb comparative
> advantage in the handicap to that day and is double the price!
>
> That horse (as luck would have it) is the only one remaining on the
> shortlist, and is my 5* tip for this year - KILBEGGAN BLADE. This one
> seems to have improved a lot this year judging by his form and is really
> well handicapped carrying just 10st 7lbs. Given his place in the betting
> market this one would put last year's tip firmly in the shade if he comes
> in, and I'd advise getting on quick as his price is shortening by the day.
>
>
> So there you have it - reputation on the line once again. Good luck if you
> decide to have a go regardless of whether you take my advice and remember
> the more you bet the more you win!
>
> Neil's £50 investment plan
>
> £10 to win on Kilbeggan Blade
> £5 each-way on Kilbeggan Blade (cover bet), State of Play, Darkness,
> Rambling Minster
>
have a small each way bet on madison de berlais in the next.
Had a score on walk on in the last so up for a while.
missed the race though some plonker came into the office looking for directions :o
madison du berlais wins with a great ride by scudamore.
denman unlucky to fall near the end but i thought thomas gave him a shocking ride.
10 ew on madison so definitly up for the day now unless i go mental ;)
ive agus a vic done in the next
Exotic dancer suffered a heart attack and had to be put down, always liked this horse, always gave everything and was usually in the money!!!!!
Aintree fund helped out by Sunnyhillboy ;D
RIP exotic dancer
Anyone fancy L'ami for the national?
Quote from: stiffler on April 02, 2009, 05:44:01 PM
RIP exotic dancer
Anyone fancy L'ami for the national?
I do if AP sits on it, along with Black Apalachi of course...
Quote from: Our Nail Loney on April 02, 2009, 05:45:59 PM
Quote from: stiffler on April 02, 2009, 05:44:01 PM
RIP exotic dancer
Anyone fancy L'ami for the national?
I do if AP sits on it, along with Black Apalachi of course...
APs on butlers cabin
Thornton is on L'ami
My stats don't differ a whole lot from the last set above, but when I apply them I come up with a fairly different set of contenders.
The first thing I do is eliminate all horses carrying 11 stone or over and any horses aged under 8 or over 12. Only one horse has managed to win carrying 11 stone or more since 1988. That was Hedgehunter, which was second in a Gold Cup. No horse over 11st. this year is in that class. It's the big stand-out statistic. Statistics don't predict the outcome of a single event, rather the most likely outcomes over a sample of events, but here they do indicate the odds against a horse lumping this kind of load around. Likewise, horses that are too young or too old have the odds stacked against them, based on results.
Then I apply the rest of what I call my main criteria – broadly similar to those mentioned above about current season form, class, proven ability over distance, ability to win in big fields, record in this race, etc. Like Neil from Totesport above, this gives me a set of horses from which I think there's a very high probability the winner will come. At least this has proven the case for the past few years.
This is usually three to five horses. This year, though, it's seven:
Butler's Cabin (10/1)
Offshore Account (33/1)
Parsons Legacy (16/1)
Reveillez (100/1)
Irish Invader (25/1)
Rambling Minster (12/1)
Southern Vic (25/1)
(I'm quoting current best available bookies' odds above. You'll get better deals from Betfair, especially on the higher priced horses, but the Betfair market is suspended at present, so I can't quote their prices).
I'm going to back them all, probably in proportion to their prices and if the trends hold up this year, I'll be in profit. I'll probably place them all as well.
This approach probably doesn't appeal to everyone. I've also applied a set of what I call "secondary criteria" to the qualifiers above based on other statistics, such as number of runs this season, days since last run, form rating, jumping history, etc. (You might say jumping history shouldn't be a secondary criterion, but the fact is that no bad jumpers meet all the main criteria. For the record, Parsons Legacy and Rambling Minster have never fallen or unseated, the other five have each fallen once in their careers and Southern Vic and Offshore Account have also unseated once).
I'm not suggesting these secondary criteria are definitive, and I'm not using them myself to make a final choice (as I say, I'm backing them all) but they may help to make a choice between the main contenders.
Anyway, when I apply these secondary criteria, the horses come out in the following order – best fit first:
Southern Vic
Irish Invader
Butler's Cabin
Offshore Account
Parsons Legacy
Rambling Minster
Reveillez
Some notes on the individual selections:
Southern Vic – ticks nearly every box in the profile of National winners in the last decade or more. The only reservation I'd state is that he hasn't won a race since October '06 – 11 races ago. 17 of the last 18 winners had gone no more than 9 races without a win and 16 of them had gone no longer than 18 months without winning.
Irish Invader – again, has an almost perfect profile. The only slight negative is that he is not long out of novice class – his last novice race was last April. Usually, being a last season novice would disqualify him, but he has won four good handicap chases in senior company since then, which effectively wipes out that reservation. If looking for a reason to oppose him, maybe the fact that all his wins but one have been over 2 miles 2 furlongs or less and his one win over three miles was a novice hurdle is not obvious National material.
Butler's Cabin – probably the best horse in the race and maybe the obvious choice of all the selections. Not surprisingly, he's the lowest priced of them. One of the few in the race to have won over more than four miles and that at Cheltenham. Reservation – he's French bred. This disqualifies him in the eyes of many stats-oriented pundits, because a French-bred has never won the race. I'm discounting that because the reason for the poor performance of French-breds is that the French don't usually go in for breeding stayers. This one is an exception and has proved he's a stayer with that Cheltenham win and his Irish Grand National win in 2007. (Two Irish National winners have gone on to do the double in recent years). One reservation – he hasn't won a race since that Irish National.
Offshore Account – a bit of a surprise that he fits the bill, but he met all the main criteria, so he's in the list on merit and I couldn't ignore a qualifier, so he'll be on my docket. That's despite the big reservation that he was out all last season and has only run once this season and that was in a handicap Hurdle, so his preparation has to be suspect.
Parsons Legacy – in on merit. A reservation about his preparation – he's run only twice this season and not since last December. All winners since 1990 had run at least four times in that season and had had their final prep race within 48 days of the National.
Rambling Minster – hard to find a negative for him. I suppose the fact that he's not Irish trained (same applies to Butler's Cabin, Reveilez and Parsons Legacy) is a negative in itself, given the performance of Irish trained runners in recent years.
Reveillez. He's a 100/1 shot. They don't often win this. Foinavon in 1967 is the only one in living (for some) memory. But you'd kick yourself if he won at 100/1, having met all the conditions and you hadn't a bob on him.
Good man hardy, Im remortgaging the house as we speak!
Thon ballix McCririck tipped State of Play and Rambling Minster on the radio this morning. His criterion...neither has ever fallen.
Andytown out again today for Hardstation and all the lads...
Rambling Minister is the outstanding stats pick.
In addition to Rambling Minister I have these on my shortlist ( all three jocks have good form over national fences ) :
Black Apalachi : weight an issue but great form over national fences and in last outing.
Silver Birch : Probably as place only bet. Previous winners have a good record in getting placed on next appearance in race.
Golden Flight : A complete leap in the dark. French bred with Injury problems and no recent form but classiest horse in race under 11st.
Quote from: Our Nail Loney on April 03, 2009, 09:36:36 AM
Andytown out again today for Hardstation and all the lads...
What price?
ONL is he worth a punt?
Dunwoody tipped Rambling Minster last night too, seems a well fancied one.
The office sweep was just done, got to pick two. Pulled Rambling Minster and My Will!! Going to stick the chilldrens allowance on the rest of your picks Hardy, dont let them down, there hungry enough as it is.
Parsons Legacy is is then.
andytown 10/1 with sj. worth an ew punt
wouldn't be gettin too stuck into andytown folks...massive rise in the weights after that cheltenham win. wasn't the most competitive cheltenham races either, altho he did win impressively!
Well Lads, what are the betting tips for the day, Am on a day off and going to see if I can earn a few bob!
I fancy private be in the topham ew
In the big one im down to southern vic, kilbeggan blade, battlecry, and himilayan trail.
ONL was wondering if you could tell me if there's been money today for kilbeggan lad. Ladbrokes have it at 20s, thought it might be longer. Do you reckon it will shorten tomorrow?
What race is andystown in?
A tip goin about for Riverside Theatre in the first
Quote from: Tiberius on April 03, 2009, 01:43:48 PM
A tip goin about for Riverside Theatre in the first
Jimmy Nesbitt is part owner of that nag. Don't let that put you off.
I see Exotic Dancer has a status of DOUBTFUL on the Sporting Life website for a later race! ::)
as usual the national is a lottery, but would agree with the posters a bout ruling out anything carrying more than 11 stone.
taking a small e/w punt on southern vic to have an interest in it
Im going with the following:
Win - Rambling Minster (10/1) everyone says it "ticks all the boxes" age, weight etc
E/W - Brooklyn Brownie (28/1) was 2nd over national fences in december so can jump. ::)
E/W - Idle Talk (66/1) think this was 15th last year & is now 15lb better off.
Quote from: ONeill on April 03, 2009, 01:22:24 PM
Quote from: one for the road on April 03, 2009, 10:14:00 AM
andytown 10/1 with sj. worth an ew punt
Did 10ew at 11-1.
Should have kept it in your pocket. I'm on Southern Vic tomorrow as the wee lad got Rambling Minster in a pinpicker.
A couple of bets on Hardys pics will do me and hopefully pay for a free night out tonight.
I've made the controversial decision to ignore Hardy's selections. Went for Kilbeggan Blade each way. I see Graham Lee has been passed fit to ride him this morning.
Anybody got any views on the Aintree Hurdle? Can Al Eile do it again? Very lightly raced this season.
any non runners been announced yet?
Offshore Account is getting my backing
I always do a fair few horses in the National and this year will be no different. All trend based selections...
Rambling Minister @14/1 1pt e/w
State of Play @16/1 1pt e/w
Black Apalachi @16/1 1pt e/w
Irish Invader @22/1 0.75pt e/w
Himalayan Trail @33/1 0.5pt e/w
Also going with Tatenen and Catch Me & Katchit e/w in the hurdle. Good Luck all.
well the bets are placed followed hardys tips and the money has gone on
5 e/w offshore account at 20 /1
5 e/w Parsons Legacy at 16/1
5 e/w Reveillez at 150 /1
if reveillez comes in i'll be buying hardy a gallon of the finest beamish brewed from corks famous brewery ;)
Anyone know where I can watch/listen to the race online? Im not in Ireland or the uk so bbc wont do
http://www.justin.tv/dragon_blades
For f**k sake ::)
3rd time lucky >:(
horray
WTF, any one bet it?
100/1, someone will be happy, somewhere!
So who had mon mome? :-\
At least MY Will comes third and I pick up a massive 7 quid in the work syndicate ;D
The bookies cleaned up today then so.
Fcuk sake Hardy.
The missus will win a few quid on State of Play but a washout on the rest. Who was fifth?
He'll have some neck on him to show his face around here again.
What a cnut, did ye hear that auld Bitch talking about the the lads teeth..FFS
Quote from: ONeill on April 04, 2009, 04:43:02 PM
He'll have some neck on him to show his face around here again.
who?
Quote from: Tyrones own on April 04, 2009, 04:43:07 PM
What a cnut, did ye hear that auld Bitch talking about the the lads teeth..FFS
and again who
Lol i had the winner on the sweep in work....
Was raging when i pulled that out yesterday....
£50 for a 2 pound sweep!! would had 200 quid if i hada backed it...lol
Quote from: Tyrones own on April 04, 2009, 04:43:07 PM
What a cnut, did ye hear that auld Bitch talking about the the lads teeth..FFS
what did she say about his nashers?
1st Mon Mome 15 L Treadwell 100/1
2nd Comply Or Die 5 T J Murphy 14/1
3rd My Will (2JF) 11 R Walsh 8/1
4th State Of Play 13 Paul Moloney 14/1
5th Cerium 37 K Mercer 100/1
Quotewhat did she say about his nashers?
She said "history was made here today, its the first time a horse that won the Grand National had a better set of teeth than the jockey" ;D
Quotewho?
The woman that was running around interviewing people, first thing out of her mouth when the winner dismounted,
"let me see you smile" ah "he doesn't have the best teeth in the world but maybe now you can afford to go and have them fixed"
you could see the embarrassment in his face...what a thing to say to anyone never mind a winning Jockey in front of 400 million viewers..Cnut!
WTF!
Need a new set of statistics next time. First four home all carrying 11 stone plus. Mon Mome also blew another one out of the water - horses that finished unplaced (10th last year) never come back to win it. Until now anyway. And carrying 4 lbs more this time! I dunno. Pin in the paper next year.
That was outrageous OK by Claire Balding about Liam's choppers. She must think she's Pat Kenny.
Hard to believe that the BBC allow their presenters to be so insulting about the physical appearance of a sporting competitor. Would they have allowed similar comments about the princess royals teeth?
Maybe Clare Balding should get a new commentary coach and a new diet ccoach might not be a bad idea either.
Quote from: Homer on April 04, 2009, 01:43:44 PM
Rambling Minister @14/1 1pt e/w
State of Play @16/1 1pt e/w
Black Apalachi @16/1 1pt e/w
Irish Invader @22/1 0.75pt e/w
Himalayan Trail @33/1 0.5pt e/w
Could have been worse but only 2.5 pts down thanks to State Of Play's 4th. Black Apalachi was running a great race when falling and Irish Invader also jumped really well but just didn't stay.
I think they have certainly made the course easier this year with all four of the placed horses carrying over 11 stone.
Sadly, Hear The Echo has been put down after collapsing after the race.
Yer man shoulda said 'at least I didnt eat a horse ye fat hoor', so something like that.
Fcuk he did show massive restraint amidst the embarrassment, even covering his mouth with his hand at one point...poor bastard
I know where that microphone belonged >:(
Surely we'll hear more about this, the fat pig should be fired on the spot!
Quote from: hardstation on April 04, 2009, 05:22:51 PM
(http://www.funnycatpix.com/_pics/super_cute_kittens.jpg)
Try the other thread HS ;)
She then followe it up with " at least now you can afford to have youre teeth fixed"
He had right to lean over and give her a kiss.
She will not be touched because she is a dyke, the beeb try too hard to placate everyone and she fits the bill of equality being a lezzer, didn't see the interview but if true what a twat of a woman. Butch Cassidy as they come she is.
Quote from: Hardy on April 04, 2009, 05:13:43 PM
Need a new set of statistics next time. First four home all carrying 11 stone plus. Mon Mome also blew another one out of the water - horses that finished unplaced (10th last year) never come back to win it. Until now anyway. And carrying 4 lbs more this time! I dunno. Pin in the paper next year.
That was outrageous OK by Claire Balding about Liam's choppers. She must think she's Pat Kenny.
A mate of mine's mother had the winner. She used the pin in the paper method.
Quote from: magpie seanie on April 04, 2009, 08:31:15 PM
Quote from: Hardy on April 04, 2009, 05:13:43 PM
Need a new set of statistics next time. First four home all carrying 11 stone plus. Mon Mome also blew another one out of the water - horses that finished unplaced (10th last year) never come back to win it. Until now anyway. And carrying 4 lbs more this time! I dunno. Pin in the paper next year.
That was outrageous OK by Claire Balding about Liam's choppers. She must think she's Pat Kenny.
A mate of mine's mother had the winner. She used the pin in the paper method.
Fair fuks to her id say that was the only method to pick that horse
What a day for the bookies. Assuming they took soemthing similar to last year's £300 million, not too much of that will be paid out. Think you could have gotten 500/1 on Cerium at stages during the week so that was another 125/1 winner with the bookies paying out 5 places. Didn't back him but watched out for him mainly because of the fact that he ran in the Gold Cup and was reckoned by Channel 4 to be "poor value at 1000/1." 11th in the Gold Cup and 5th in the National isn't bad.
Ridiculous behaviour from Balding right enough.
On the stats Hardy, how would ya fare if you always backed the previous winner (if running) each way. They seem to run well after winning but can't win again due to the weight. Did Monty's Pass place after winning and now Comply or Die & Hedgehunter both have in recent years.
Quote from: Tyrones own on April 04, 2009, 05:05:46 PM
Quotewho?
The woman that was running around interviewing people, first thing out of her mouth when the winner dismounted,
"let me see you smile" ah "he doesn't have the best teeth in the world but maybe now you can afford to go and have them fixed"
you could see the embarrassment in his face...what a thing to say to anyone never mind a winning Jockey in front of 400 million viewers..Cnut!
desrerate thing to say alright, but where do the 400 million viewers come from? Is there much interest in this race outside of the UK and Ireland?
Quote from: Bensars on April 04, 2009, 05:47:57 PM
She then followe it up with " at least now you can afford to have youre teeth fixed"
his teeth dont look that bad
(http://images.racingpost.com/2009/Apr/5751.jpg)
(http://d.yimg.com/i/ng/sp/empics/20090129/17/3069375642-horse-racing-towcester-racecourse-second-january-meeting.jpg)
The Gaa Board is awash with lying bastards so who had a tenner each way on the winner? As for Clare Balding (and i think she is ) that was atrocious from her asking to see his teeth, it was his finest hour and she tried to ruin it for him. He has probably had his teeth knocked out from many a spill but what is her excuse? You could see him going red,mean spirited ugly hatchet faced lesbian oul ****
Quote from: hardstation on April 04, 2009, 10:51:27 PM
Quote from: Minder on April 04, 2009, 10:47:13 PM
The Gaa Board is awash with lying b**tards so who had a tenner each way on the winner?
Alright, alright. I had a score on the nose.
I knew there was wan
I bet about £25 and won £3 so im happy enough
I bet 5 e.w on all hardy tips. Thats why im home tonight :D :D
Quotedesrerate thing to say alright, but where do the 400 million viewers come from? Is there much interest in this race outside of the UK and Ireland?
It was a guess on my part but according to the link below it's estimated at 600 million from 140 countries worldwide :o
http://www.aintree.co.uk/pages/the-grand-national-experience/
New stats for hardy..
* Age 8 to 12 – 9yo
* Won one or more 3m+ Chase YES
* Run in 10+ Chases YES
* Won Class 2 or better Chase YES
* Won Chase worth over £17,000 YES
* Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight on the day - YES
* Top 3 finish in Class 1 Chase over 3m+ - YES
* Top 3 finish in any of last 3 runs - YES
* Last run no greater than 50 days - YES
* No more than one none-finish (F/PU/U etc) that season - YES
* Topspeed of 128+ - YES
* RPR of 144+ - YES
* Top 5 Hennessy, Top 3 Welsh/Irish/Scots National, Top 2 in race over National fences OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m4f+ - YES, 2nd in Welsh National 2 years ago
My wife made four different bets, one of which was €3 on Mon Mome at 66/1. Naturally there was much rejoicing when the race finished. Then we checked the betting form online and found she'd accidentally bet on him twice! Later on, Liverpool scored the winner in the last minute. Twas a good day.
Well done Mrs D.
Did you back him, bcarrier? Some interesting ones there and different ways of looking at some of the common ones. Does the revised weight statistic stand up over the last ten years? It may be a better way of looking at weight if it does.
Yesterday blew apart the old French-bred statistic anyway. Until yesterday, a French-bred had never won. Yesterday, not only the winner, but four of the first seven were French bred.
Until yesterday, nine of the previous ten winners and 22 of the other 30 placed horses were Irish bred. Yesterday, we had one Irish-bred in the first seven.
The biggest trend Mon Mome shattered yesterday, though, was winning after finishing tenth last year and carrying 3 pounds more this time. I can't find another example of that (any unplaced horse coming back to win, never mind one that found nine too good for him last year) going back a long way and I wouldn't have backed him in a hundred years based on that alone.
Quote from: TacadoirArdMhacha on April 04, 2009, 09:01:38 PM
On the stats Hardy, how would ya fare if you always backed the previous winner (if running) each way. They seem to run well after winning but can't win again due to the weight. Did Monty's Pass place after winning and now Comply or Die & Hedgehunter both have in recent years.
Tacadoir, in the last ten years, there have been 14 runs by former winners, three of them placing - Monty's Pass 4th at 20/1 in 2004, Hedgehunter 2nd at 5/1 in 2006 and Comply Or Die 2nd yesterday @ 14/1. At SP you'd be 15.25 points down if backing them all each way or 1.25 points down if backing place only (if you could have done so pre-Betfair). You'd probably be showing a profit placing at ante-post prices.
Quote from: deiseach on April 05, 2009, 08:38:54 AM
My wife made four different bets, one of which was €3 on Mon Mome at 66/1. Naturally there was much rejoicing when the race finished. Then we checked the betting form online and found she'd accidentally bet on him twice! Later on, Liverpool scored the winner in the last minute. Twas a good day.
most bookies were giving guaranteed prices, so depending on she bet with you could be getting the SP of 100/1 - now that'd really be the icing on the cake!
Quote from: Tyrones own on April 05, 2009, 12:14:25 AM
Quotedesrerate thing to say alright, but where do the 400 million viewers come from? Is there much interest in this race outside of the UK and Ireland?
It was a guess on my part but according to the link below it's estimated at 600 million from 140 countries worldwide :o
http://www.aintree.co.uk/pages/the-grand-national-experience/
Aye, maybe, I just don't know if people outside the UK and Ireland know anything about it, so I'd be surprised if 1/10 of the world's population watch it.
Had backed Black Apalachi myself, was going to pick another, had Snowy Morning ear marked but just put the lot on BA, ah well...
As for people saying the bookies cleaned up, plenty of ones in our place had Mon Mome backed, this is the National, every horse was backed to the balls, and sure three highly fancied horses placed in Comply or Die, My Will and State Of Play... It was a better result than if Comply Or Die for example winning of course...
Just before the race I looked at out market books, if Irish Invader or Butlers Cabin had of win, we would have been safer just shutting up shop!!
Hardy...I had £2 on betfair at 200/1. Still lost £350 yesterday though.
Well done - and hard luck, but well done again on the fact it wasn't £750!
It certainly could have been worse Hardy .... thought I had this thing sussed after a good cheltenham then
Al Eile did what all ew sure things do. 4th.
Golden Flight goes at first . This was biggest bet and I had planned to trade out ... Geraghty had completed previous 6 races and is usually prominent.
Rambo never got into it.
Silver Birch / Black Apalachi : Thought both were going Ok when tipping at Beechers 2nd time.
Anyway onto Irish version ... trens coutesy of Tony Keenan/ Prospero
- The weight trend here is very strong; only 1 of the last 10 winner carried more than 10-12 to victory while 28 of the 30 placed horses since 1999 have carried 11-0 or less.
- 8 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 125 and 136.
- 6yos and 7yos seriously out-perform older horses here; from 22% of the total runners since 1999, they've had 5 winners and 6 runners-up. Only 1 runner aged in double figures has placed since 2005.
- Of the last 9 winners to complete the course, none finished worse than seventh.
- Last year's winner Hear The Echo was an extreme example of how lightly-raced have come to the fore here as he was having his first run since Christmas. The last 7 winners had no more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.
- Concentrate on unexposed handicappers as none of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases.
The woman had £1 each way on the winner with Boylesports in Newry. Bet done Friday and marked price at 66/1..
Is she entitled to the 100/1??
al eile let me down for placepot. Anyone know what it paid ?
Good stuff bcarrier - will study those.
Placepot paid 2,424 maddog!
Quote from: drici on April 06, 2009, 12:20:14 AM
Heard loads of people in Keady had Mon Mone.
I heard KP Mone had a fiver each way on it.
My son wanted to pick comply or die, I talked him out of it & got him to close his eyes & pick one out of the paper. He picked comply or die. He was extremely happy with his £4.50 winnings.
My betting days are over
Quote from: Harold Disgracey on April 06, 2009, 09:49:36 AM
Quote from: drici on April 06, 2009, 12:20:14 AM
Heard loads of people in Keady had Mon Mone.
I heard KP Mone had a fiver each way on it.
My son wanted to pick comply or die, I talked him out of it & got him to close his eyes & pick one out of the paper. He picked comply or die. He was extremely happy with his £4.50 winnings.
Using the close eyes put finger on one in newspaper method my son picked 3 horses. £5e/w on each one.
So he had Comply or die (14/1 2nd), State of play (14/1 4th) & Cerium (500/1 5th)!
Unfortunately Toals didn't pay out on the 5th horse but he was happy as larry. Not bad for a 4 year old.
BBC presenter Clare Balding has apologised to Grand National winning jockey Liam Treadwell after making fun of his teeth while on air.
In a post-race interview, Balding urged the 23-year-old to show his teeth and told him he could afford to "get them done" with his prize money.
A BBC spokeswoman said the presenter "had no intention whatsoever" of upsetting or embarrassing the jockey.
The BBC received 1,477 complaints from viewers over the remarks.
Treadwell won Saturday's race on 100-1 outsider Mon Mome.
In the interview, Balding said to Treadwell: "Give us a big grin to the camera".
When he smiled, keeping his lips closed, she added: "No, no, let's see your teeth. He hasn't got the best teeth in the world, but you can afford to go and get them done now if you like."
Treadwell replied: "Well I could do, but I ain't complaining. It might be bringing on bad luck if I do that, though."
A BBC spokeswoman said: "Clare Balding had no intention whatsoever of upsetting or embarrassing Liam Treadwell, but she fully accepts that she should not have raised the subject with him at that time."
"The BBC and Clare apologise for any offence caused. Clare has also apologised directly to Liam Treadwell."
Proper order, ill bred oul c*nt.
Lost a fortune on Friday at Aintree but the ride home (just me and a mate) in a flexi bus with 20 girls out of their heads on Charlie made up for it...lol. Certainly shocked me as i'd never even seen coke before (only in films) but the crack was 90 (like the pun :D)
Quote from: Minder on April 06, 2009, 12:57:06 PM
Proper order, ill bred oul c*nt.
Not a fan either Minder I take it??!! She is a stuck up fecker no doubt.
Ya hoor ye I must have sent ye a hundred messages!
Obviously tou said "illdecide not to text him back".
Unless, did we meet up? I cant mind :D
Quote from: Doogie Browser on April 06, 2009, 01:04:34 PM
Quote from: Minder on April 06, 2009, 12:57:06 PM
Proper order, ill bred oul c*nt.
Not a fan either Minder I take it??!! She is a stuck up fecker no doubt.
It was such bad form asking him about his teeth, you could see his face going red. She did her best to ruin the biggest moment of his career. He has probably had loads of falls and had his teeth knocked out. What is Baldings excuses for her appearance?
Quote from: Minder on April 06, 2009, 01:20:07 PM
Quote from: Doogie Browser on April 06, 2009, 01:04:34 PM
Quote from: Minder on April 06, 2009, 12:57:06 PM
Proper order, ill bred oul c*nt.
Not a fan either Minder I take it??!! She is a stuck up fecker no doubt.
It was such bad form asking him about his teeth, you could see his face going red. She did her best to ruin the biggest moment of his career. He has probably had loads of falls and had his teeth knocked out. What is Baldings excuses for her appearance?
Could she look more lezzer if she tried?!
He should have comeback with, "maybe you can pluck those vagina hairs out of your own teeth, ya fat dyke ya"
Quote from: The Corporal on April 06, 2009, 01:37:52 PM
He should have comeback with, "maybe you can pluck those vagina hairs out of your own teeth, ya fat dyke ya"
[/quote
And then he would have been the one that would have been attacked by all sorts of sympathisers ! ;)
Clare let herself down big time here - Jonathan Ross nealry got kicked out - she might get a wee reprimand here.
Quote from: SidelineKick on April 06, 2009, 01:16:59 PM
Ya hoor ye I must have sent ye a hundred messages!
Obviously tou said "illdecide not to text him back".
Unless, did we meet up? I cant mind :D
i know sir and i'm sorry as i left my phone and my bank card in the hostel and when i got back (9:00pm) i seen 2 or 3 messages from ya and i had to go to the bank and pay back the £100 i burrowed >:(
How did ya get on yourself??? I was well out of it by 1:00am and woke up the next morning with about 3 stamps on my arm from clubs (i think)
Quote from: Hardy on April 06, 2009, 09:42:56 AM
Good stuff bcarrier - will study those.
Placepot paid 2,424 maddog!
Well f**k that
Quote from: illdecide on April 06, 2009, 02:12:41 PM
Quote from: SidelineKick on April 06, 2009, 01:16:59 PM
Ya hoor ye I must have sent ye a hundred messages!
Obviously tou said "illdecide not to text him back".
Unless, did we meet up? I cant mind :D
i know sir and i'm sorry as i left my phone and my bank card in the hostel and when i got back (9:00pm) i seen 2 or 3 messages from ya and i had to go to the bank and pay back the £100 i burrowed >:(
How did ya get on yourself??? I was well out of it by 1:00am and woke up the next morning with about 3 stamps on my arm from clubs (i think)
I don't even think i realised i was in Liverpool by 1:00am :D brilliant weekends craic and I will certainly be back! It was a hairy one but well worth every penny, probably broke around even so happy enough I didnt get wiped out!
the sister does always bet on the big races(gold cup & grand national). €10 to win every time. now she isnt one for reading through form or anything like that dont even think she understands the odds properly either. she closes her eyes and picks a horse at random. no prizes for guessing who she picked saturday......... its not fair! >:( :D
Quote from: The Forfeit Point on April 06, 2009, 04:41:53 PM
the sister does always bet on the big races(gold cup & grand national). €10 to win every time. now she isnt one for reading through form or anything like that dont even think she understands the odds properly either. she closes her eyes and picks a horse at random. no prizes for guessing who she picked saturday......... its not fair! >:( :D
Is she good looking ???
Quote from: illdecide on April 06, 2009, 05:08:53 PM
Quote from: The Forfeit Point on April 06, 2009, 04:41:53 PM
the sister does always bet on the big races(gold cup & grand national). €10 to win every time. now she isnt one for reading through form or anything like that dont even think she understands the odds properly either. she closes her eyes and picks a horse at random. no prizes for guessing who she picked saturday......... its not fair! >:( :D
Is she good looking ???
my name may be mcdonagh but i am not going to comment on that!! :D
Quote from: The Forfeit Point on April 06, 2009, 05:40:09 PM
Quote from: illdecide on April 06, 2009, 05:08:53 PM
Quote from: The Forfeit Point on April 06, 2009, 04:41:53 PM
the sister does always bet on the big races(gold cup & grand national). €10 to win every time. now she isnt one for reading through form or anything like that dont even think she understands the odds properly either. she closes her eyes and picks a horse at random. no prizes for guessing who she picked saturday......... its not fair! >:( :D
Is she good looking ???
my name may be mcdonagh but i am not going to comment on that!! :D
That's a yes ;)
Quote from: The Forfeit Point on April 06, 2009, 04:41:53 PM
the sister does always bet on the big races(gold cup & grand national). €10 to win every time. now she isnt one for reading through form or anything like that dont even think she understands the odds properly either. she closes her eyes and picks a horse at random. no prizes for guessing who she picked saturday......... its not fair! >:( :D
Was talking to a woman today, who'd barely know a horse had four legs, her wee one calls her "Mom Mom" so she stuck a quid each way on Mon Mome :-\
Copied from politics.ie:
Thought she was a bit OTT with that ... she's no oil painting herself, a few quid could be spent here too.
(http://i648.photobucket.com/albums/uu206/Hardyarse/Balding.jpg)
Clare is on the right.
(http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/racing/css/jsprclarebaldingnewm8.jpg)
Yer man on the far right looks decidedly uncomfortable.
Quote from: Hardy on April 06, 2009, 07:44:29 PM
Copied from politics.ie:
Thought she was a bit OTT with that ... she's no oil painting herself, a few quid could be spent here too.
(http://i648.photobucket.com/albums/uu206/Hardyarse/Balding.jpg)
Clare is on the right.
They say some people look likeir animals...Her and princess Margaret...
Both look like horses..... ;D
Quote from: ONeill on April 06, 2009, 07:48:28 PM
(http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/racing/css/jsprclarebaldingnewm8.jpg)
Yer man on the far right looks decidedly uncomfortable.
She looks like she is quite familiar with being in that position
the face of horseracing.
If she had said it to me I would have told her I could also afford liposuction & a new face for her if she fancied it.
Cheeky pig
What a f**king bitch Balding is.Hardly an oil painting herself the fat ****
This was the best day of this young jockey's life, the greatest achievement of his life and he should have been enjoying the limelight not getting embarassed on national television. What a dick, as said before imagine the uproar if she said it to that buck toothed horse-a-like Zara Phillips...
Quote from: Our Nail Loney on April 07, 2009, 09:49:43 AM
What a f**king bitch Balding is.Hardly an oil painting herself the fat ****
This was the best day of this young jockey's life, the greatest achievement of his life and he should have been enjoying the limelight not getting embarassed on national television. What a dick, as said before imagine the uproar if she said it to that buck toothed horse-a-like Zara Phillips...
Bet you still would though ;)
Quote from: full back on April 07, 2009, 09:52:40 AM
Quote from: Our Nail Loney on April 07, 2009, 09:49:43 AM
What a f**king bitch Balding is.Hardly an oil painting herself the fat ****
This was the best day of this young jockey's life, the greatest achievement of his life and he should have been enjoying the limelight not getting embarassed on national television. What a dick, as said before imagine the uproar if she said it to that buck toothed horse-a-like Zara Phillips...
Bet you still would though ;)
In a micro second!! :D
Full Back your a dorty hoor...is that all you think about "Roiding" sounds like your missus is keeping herself to herself...lol
Quote from: illdecide on April 07, 2009, 11:22:48 AM
Full Back your a dorty hoor...is that all you think about "Roiding" sounds like your missus is keeping herself to herself...lol
You sir are a psychic ;)
How did you get on in Liverpool?
Quote from: full back on April 07, 2009, 11:33:23 AM
Quote from: illdecide on April 07, 2009, 11:22:48 AM
Full Back your a dorty hoor...is that all you think about "Roiding" sounds like your missus is keeping herself to herself...lol
You sir are a psychic ;)
How did you get on in Liverpool?
To my usual standards...very well behaved saan. Just full of Alcohol...2 spinning classes in a row with a few weights afterwards last night got rid of that and ready for training tonight (although the legs feel like led this morning)
Quote from: illdecide on April 07, 2009, 11:40:15 AM
Quote from: full back on April 07, 2009, 11:33:23 AM
Quote from: illdecide on April 07, 2009, 11:22:48 AM
Full Back your a dorty hoor...is that all you think about "Roiding" sounds like your missus is keeping herself to herself...lol
You sir are a psychic ;)
How did you get on in Liverpool?
To my usual standards...very well behaved saan. Just full of Alcohol...2 spinning classes in a row with a few weights afterwards last night got rid of that and ready for training tonight (although the legs feel like led this morning)
After seeing your lads on Saturday I hope you are training hard :-\