Sam Maguire permutations

[twohands!!!]

(1/2) Kerry 7/4
(1/2) Dublin 5/2
(1/2) Galway 11/2
(3) Mayo 7/1
(1/2) Derry 12/1
(3) Tyrone 16/1
(1/2) Armagh 20/1
(3) Roscommon 50/1
(3) Monaghan 66/1
(4) Cork 80/1
(4) Kildare 80/1
(4) Donegal 150/1
(1/2) Louth 200/1
(1/2) Clare 300/1
(4) Westmeath 500/1
(1/2) Sligo 1000/1

Current bookies odds to win Sam.
Current Seeding in brackets
Nothing too surprising there.
Based on these odds the bookies expect the provincials bar Ulster to be foregone conclusions.
It will be interesting to see if there is much movement in these odds when the draw is made and then after the provincials are done.

[armaghniac]

(1/2) Kerry 7/4
(1/2) Dublin 5/2
(1/2) Galway 11/2
(3) Mayo 7/1
(1/2) Derry 12/1
(3) Tyrone 16/1
(1/2) Armagh 20/1
(3) Roscommon 50/1
(3) Monaghan 66/1
(4) Cork 80/1
(4) Kildare 80/1
(4) Donegal 150/1
(1/2) Louth 200/1
(1/2) Clare 300/1
(4) Westmeath 500/1
(1/2) Sligo 1000/1

Current bookies odds to win Sam.
Current Seeding in brackets
Nothing too surprising there.
Based on these odds the bookies expect the provincials bar Ulster to be foregone conclusions.
It will be interesting to see if there is much movement in these odds when the draw is made and then after the provincials are done.

The draw for the groups will not make much difference. I'd say that the only 4th seed with a chance of getting out of the group stage is Kildare. If the draw for preliminary quarter finals is made at the same time then you might learn something.
THe provincial finals are hardly likely to make much difference, Armagh might beat Derry and both might end up as 16/1.

[Blowitupref]

(1/2) Kerry 7/4
(1/2) Dublin 5/2
(1/2) Galway 11/2
(3) Mayo 7/1
(1/2) Derry 12/1
(3) Tyrone 16/1
(1/2) Armagh 20/1
(3) Roscommon 50/1
(3) Monaghan 66/1
(4) Cork 80/1
(4) Kildare 80/1
(4) Donegal 150/1
(1/2) Louth 200/1
(1/2) Clare 300/1
(4) Westmeath 500/1
(1/2) Sligo 1000/1

Current bookies odds to win Sam.
Current Seeding in brackets
Nothing too surprising there.
Based on these odds the bookies expect the provincials bar Ulster to be foregone conclusions.
It will be interesting to see if there is much movement in these odds when the draw is made and then after the provincials are done.

The draw for the groups will not make much difference. I'd say that the only 4th seed with a chance of getting out of the group stage is Kildare. If the draw for preliminary quarter finals is made at the same time then you might learn something.
THe provincial finals are hardly likely to make much difference, Armagh might beat Derry and both might end up as 16/1.

Derry win the Ulster final and do so in the manner they beat Monaghan I'd expect their odds to be similar as Mayo. Dublin's odds looks too short and could get Ulster runner up and Mayo in their group.

[Hound]

Yeah, Galway are clearly better than Dublin at the moment,  but none of the Galway lads have won it before and plenty of the Dubs have (multiple times) so in reality I would have them joint second favs behind Kerry. But I would have Mayo level with them too. And Ulster's best team will be bang there too (not necessarily the Ulster champions). 

There's going to be a lot of abuse and negativity around the provincial finals (note that the Leinster final is more competitive than both the Connacht and Munster finals according to the bookies!) and the round robin, but I think we're going to have an awesome championship from the last 12 onwards.

[Captain Obvious]

1996 to 2010 there was a lot of talk and short odds on Dublin to win the All Ireland yet they didn't reach any All Ireland final in that time period. Last two years they didn't reach All Ireland final and the form they have showed this year it will be a surprise if they reach the All Ireland this July. Begs the question are Dublin now back to the level they were at 1996 to 2010 and if so punters should be placing their cash elsewhere.

[clarshack]

1996 to 2010 there was a lot of talk and short odds on Dublin to win the All Ireland yet they didn't reach any All Ireland final in that time period. Last two years they didn't reach All Ireland final and the form they have showed this year it will be a surprise if they reach the All Ireland this July. Begs the question are Dublin now back to the level they were at 1996 to 2010 and if so punters should be placing their cash elsewhere.

They could be back at 2010 levels? Sundays game kind of reminded me of the scare they got against Wexford that season in Leinster. Meath hammered them in the next game though that won't be happening. Louth will take any kind of win.

What's the chances though that Louth could win Leinster '13' years after the farce of 2010 while Meath languish in the Tailteann cup? That would be Karma.

[jmcgdoire]

Anyone able to tell me what time the draw is taking place for the groups? And if it is being broadcast live?

[Armagh18]

Anyone able to tell me what time the draw is taking place for the groups? And if it is being broadcast live?

1pm. On radio 1 i think

[Tubberman]

Anyone able to tell me what time the draw is taking place for the groups? And if it is being broadcast live?

1pm. On radio 1 i think

And GAAGO

[onefineday]

The 3rd seeds are stronger than the 2nd seed which is strange

system needs tweaked imo.
Be better to give provincial winner 1st seed and all other seedings based on finishing league positions - while still allowing provincial finalists to qualify.
That would enhance the incentive in the league and provide more of a link to championship.  We're always likely to get something similar due to the unbalanced nature of the provinces.

[An Watcher]

I would like to see division 3 winners in there as well.  Some incentive in a league final.  Division 4 is going a bit far down the ladder

[seafoid]

The 3rd seeds are stronger than the 2nd seed which is strange

system needs tweaked imo.
Be better to give provincial winner 1st seed and all other seedings based on finishing league positions - while still allowing provincial finalists to qualify.
That would enhance the incentive in the league and provide more of a link to championship.  We're always likely to get something similar due to the unbalanced nature of the provinces.

The system is still in development.

[seafoid]

The 3rd seeds are stronger than the 2nd seed which is strange

system needs tweaked imo.
Be better to give provincial winner 1st seed and all other seedings based on finishing league positions - while still allowing provincial finalists to qualify.
That would enhance the incentive in the league and provide more of a link to championship.  We're always likely to get something similar due to the unbalanced nature of the provinces.

provincial finalists should be in pot 4

[balladmaker]

Anyone able to tell me what time the draw is taking place for the groups? And if it is being broadcast live?

1pm. On radio 1 i think

You'd think the marketing guru's in HQ would have the sense to set this draw up as a flagship event live on TV, and make something of it.  Here we are on a Tuesday afternoon asking around where to watch/listen to it ... maybe I live in a bubble and have missed the PR campaign around the draw.

[Blowitupref]

Group1
Kerry/Clare
Dublin/Louth
Mayo
Cork


Group 2
Galway/Sligo
Armagh/Derry
Tyrone
Westmeath



Group 3
Dublin/Louth
Galway/Sligo
Roscommon
Kildare



Group 4
Derry/Armagh
Kerry/Clare
Monaghan
Donegal