China Coronavirus

[Itchy]

https://www.ft.com/content/c1c92b80-3ec1-11ea-b84f-a62c46f39bc2

Containing the spread of the coronavirus is a forlorn hope
A revised timeline suggests it has been circulating longer than first thought

ANJANA AHUJA  A military medical team member and a medical worker at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital at the weekend

 The world should be more anxious than it was a week ago. According to research published on Friday, a new Sars-like coronavirus has been present in China since December 1, a full month before the alarm was raised. Almost 3,000 people have been diagnosed with the respiratory illness. As of Monday afternoon, 35 cases were outside China. Eighty-one people have died. Despite draconian quarantining, the virus, provisionally known as 2019-nCoV, is spreading.

 Several countries, including the UK, are considering evacuating nationals from the hot zone. It is now time for the World Health Organisation to call a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The revised timeline on when the virus began circulating comes courtesy of two papers in The Lancet medical journal, which reveal other worrying details. One sets out the clinical data on the first 41 laboratory-confirmed patients. Patient zero, who fell ill on December 1, had no link to the seafood market in Wuhan that is widely assumed to be the source of the outbreak. A further 13 of those 41 cases showed no link either. It is possible that the virus began circulating earlier than December. Other analyses separately suggest that containment is now a forlorn hope. The “reproduction number” is thought to lie between two and four — meaning that, on average, each infected person passes the virus to between two and four others. That is high: seasonal flu has a reproduction rate of about 1.4. The incubation period could be about a week, with infected individuals possibly being contagious while showing mild or no symptoms. Neil Ferguson, an Imperial College epidemiologist, estimated that 4,000 were infected by January 18. Jonathan Read, of Lancaster University, and colleagues provisionally calculate that the tally could exceed 190,000 by February 4. A “grave situation” for China, as President Xi Jinping describes the epidemic, is a grave situation for the world. A fifth of the global population is now potentially exposed to a highly transmissible, currently incurable and potentially fatal respiratory virus.

Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, believes a PHEIC declaration should be considered. “The emergency committee [of the WHO] should reconvene as a matter of urgency,” Mr Horton said, adding that he felt there were political sensitivities at play that have not dogged other epidemics, such as Ebola in west Africa. Recent developments, such as a special committee set up by China’s ruling party, have also heightened rather than allayed his concerns. He says: “Not one [of the people on that committee] has any background in public health. That makes me very worried.” Mr Horton also fears the mass social unrest that may accompany prolonged quarantine with patchy information. It is unclear whether the WHO knew in advance of China’s quarantine plans. The language emerging from its meetings has been painfully diplomatic, with its director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus remarking only that he hoped the extreme measures were “both effective and short in their duration”. Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, said it was “right and appropriate” for China to control the first response. Antivirals were going into randomised trials on the ground, he said, and vaccines might become available within six months. He acknowledged, though, that the social consequences of quarantining millions of people remained “uncharted territory”. All factors considered, it is perverse to see the coronavirus outbreak as anything other than a PHEIC. The writer is a science commentator

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

[Taylor]

2 confirmed cases in the UK this morning

[RedHand88]

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

Perhaps. You certainly have a point with the seasonal flu. Scary how so many people don't take it serious.

[GetOverTheBar]

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

Perhaps. You certainly have a point with the seasonal flu. Scary how so many people don't take it serious.

I could be stepping on racial lines here....you know how the world is at the moment, but the Chinese people don't have a great diet - it's well documented that their average calories per day would be less than someone in the Western world, thus making them slightly 'weaker' for want of a better word. 1.4bn people is also a lot of people to immunise (from birth like we would have gotten)....is there a point to be made that this is something that has "been coming"?

[Solo_run]

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

Perhaps. You certainly have a point with the seasonal flu. Scary how so many people don't take it serious.

I could be stepping on racial lines here....you know how the world is at the moment, but the Chinese people don't have a great diet - it's well documented that their average calories per day would be less than someone in the Western world, thus making them slightly 'weaker' for want of a better word. 1.4bn people is also a lot of people to immunise (from birth like we would have gotten)....is there a point to be made that this is something that has "been coming"?

Something like 40 million do not have access to clean drinking water either, The overall quality of clean air in China is poor, it is the highest tobacco consumers in the world..these issues are going to have a dire impact on the populations respiratory health.  There will be more deaths but it is nowhere near the amount of deaths seasonal flu causes.

[Taylor]

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

Perhaps. You certainly have a point with the seasonal flu. Scary how so many people don't take it serious.

I could be stepping on racial lines here....you know how the world is at the moment, but the Chinese people don't have a great diet - it's well documented that their average calories per day would be less than someone in the Western world, thus making them slightly 'weaker' for want of a better word. 1.4bn people is also a lot of people to immunise (from birth like we would have gotten)....is there a point to be made that this is something that has "been coming"?

Racist. Reported

[GetOverTheBar]

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

Perhaps. You certainly have a point with the seasonal flu. Scary how so many people don't take it serious.

I could be stepping on racial lines here....you know how the world is at the moment, but the Chinese people don't have a great diet - it's well documented that their average calories per day would be less than someone in the Western world, thus making them slightly 'weaker' for want of a better word. 1.4bn people is also a lot of people to immunise (from birth like we would have gotten)....is there a point to be made that this is something that has "been coming"?

Racist. Reported

I had a good run.

[BennyCake]

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

Perhaps. You certainly have a point with the seasonal flu. Scary how so many people don't take it serious.

I could be stepping on racial lines here....you know how the world is at the moment, but the Chinese people don't have a great diet - it's well documented that their average calories per day would be less than someone in the Western world, thus making them slightly 'weaker' for want of a better word. 1.4bn people is also a lot of people to immunise (from birth like we would have gotten)....is there a point to be made that this is something that has "been coming"?

Oh it’s “been coming” alright.

[screenexile]

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

Perhaps. You certainly have a point with the seasonal flu. Scary how so many people don't take it serious.

I could be stepping on racial lines here....you know how the world is at the moment, but the Chinese people don't have a great diet - it's well documented that their average calories per day would be less than someone in the Western world, thus making them slightly 'weaker' for want of a better word. 1.4bn people is also a lot of people to immunise (from birth like we would have gotten)....is there a point to be made that this is something that has "been coming"?

Something like 40 million do not have access to clean drinking water either, The overall quality of clean air in China is poor, it is the highest tobacco consumers in the world..these issues are going to have a dire impact on the populations respiratory health.  There will be more deaths but it is nowhere near the amount of deaths seasonal flu causes.

Was listening to an expert on this the other day. He tried to explain that the situation woould get worse over the next few weeks but ultimately the numbers are not huge and the steps the Chinese are taking are enough.

He also suggested that the evacuation of people back to their home country was an over reaction to the situation.

Like the flu if you're healthy and you contract it you are sick but it's manageable it's just for people who have bad health or certain underlying conditions that this can be fatal.

The rolling global 24 hr news cycle is not helping!

[Harold Disgracey]

[Aristo 60]

Good one Harold 

[Rudi]

Are we genuinely living in a world that believes China will build a hospital in 10 days! The mind boggles!

Yes, they did. The mind boggles indeed.

[trailer]

Are we genuinely living in a world that believes China will build a hospital in 10 days! The mind boggles!

Yes, they did. The mind boggles indeed.

Think it was 8 days. Mental.

[GetOverTheBar]

Just goes to show what a Government can do when they really want to do it. Here you'd have to argue 8 months before you even get to put it to a vote, before some bollox objects then it's 8 years before we do something. Hold on, this is all very Casement Park.

Wouldn't happen in Beijing lads.

[Hound]

Population of China = 1,427,647,786

Fatal cases of Corona virus in the hundreds and I am going to guess fatal cases of normal flu probably multiples more than that.

Is this a world wide over reaction?

Perhaps. You certainly have a point with the seasonal flu. Scary how so many people don't take it serious.

Over 40 flu-related deaths in Ireland this winter.

It's "apples and oranges" to an extent, but if there are 40 deaths in Ireland due to the Corona virus, the country will be locked down!

There was a doctor talking on Newstalk on Friday (who said about the number of flu deaths - think he said it was 48), but he said he wouldn't be surprised if Easter was cancelled! - meaning no travel allowed.