The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[Harold Disgracey]

The latest model run by @ElectionStatsIE, the amateur psephologist and statistician in me loves this sort of stuff. This guy fancies himself as the Irish Nate Silver.

Latest model run:
FG: 55
SF: 35
FF: 32
IND: 18
LAB: 7
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2
GP: 1

[Owenmoresider]

The latest model run by @ElectionStatsIE, the amateur psephologist and statistician in me loves this sort of stuff. This guy fancies himself as the Irish Nate Silver.

Latest model run:
FG: 55
SF: 35
FF: 32
IND: 18
LAB: 7
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2
GP: 1

Well Nate didn't exactly get the British election right, and any projection that puts SF either a) on 35 seats, or b) ahead of FF, cannot be taken seriously. Mid-20's the max for SF, and FF between 35-40, unlikely to be more.

[Rossie11]

The 4/11 odds on Maura Hopkins winning a seat for FG in Ross/Galway are terrible.
FF would still have a big vote in Ross and every though Cake and Murphy are useless candidates they still have a chance between them to get 1 across the line.
The big thing will be if John Kelly Lab is eliminated before one of the FF candidates his transfers will go in massively favour of Hopkins as they both from the same town.

The surprise here could be the SF candidate. At 5/1 she has a chance where transfers and elimination sequence will be huge.

[Canalman]

Just a hunch that this time out SF might be shading/ scrapping for alot of the last seats in the constituencies and getting more preference votes as the counts go on. FF will do well also.

Still scratching my head as to how FG haven't had this election sewn up weeks ago. Some of the party strategists might be feeling a chill wind post election if things don't go to plan. Maybe they were wallowing too much  in the praise of the multinationals and EU overlords to realise that the vast majority of the people in the country are not seeing the "recovery", only reading about it in the papers. Blaming it all on previous FF govt might be ok for first year or so but not good enough imo 5 years later.

People in Dublin struggling to make ends meet even when they have a job, people down the country thinking the "recovery" is only happening in Dublin. Forking out E 1500/ 1600 a month in rent for a house/ apartment in Dublin.

Will hold on to their hard core 30% vote though. Can't see them winning anywhere near the 45% of seats they got in 2011 with 36% of the vote.

[deiseach]

By my reckoning SF are running 50 candidates. To get 35 of them home would be . . . it seems unlikely.

[armaghniac]

Just a hunch that this time out SF might be shading/ scrapping for alot of the last seats in the constituencies and getting more preference votes as the counts go on. FF will do well also.

SF are not transfer friendly in many cases, people will transfer to FF in some cases to keep SF out.


S

till scratching my head as to how FG haven't had this election sewn up weeks ago. Some of the party strategists might be feeling a chill wind post election if things don't go to plan. Maybe they were wallowing too much  in the praise of the multinationals and EU overlords to realise that the vast majority of the people in the country are not seeing the "recovery", only reading about it in the papers.

There is a recovery, but not even a recovery can fix everything overnight given the mess there was (which some people forget). But even people who see this also see FG engaging in auction politics and largely ignoring the Fiscal Council they themselves set up. New politics my arsé.

There will be some close counts in this, with a couple of constituencies have more sitting TDs than seats e.g. Dublin-Rathdown.

[Hound]

PP's odds for the make up of the next govt are interesting too:

FG/FF 11/10
FG/Lab 6/1
FG/Lab/SDs 10/1
FG majority 22/1
FG/SF 25/1
FF/SF 33/1

They seem fairly confident SF won't be in the next government

[AQMP]

The Guardian's view:

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/feb/18/irelands-general-election-the-guardian-briefing

[Hardy]

From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):

Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.

[Rossfan]

The shirts will be pleased with latest opinion polls. Labour and the Slabs won't be though.
Indies and Others might be hitting 28% but won't get that percentage of the seats ( around 44) while the Builders and Auctioneers will likely do better than opinion polls suggest.

[seafoid]

The latest model run by @ElectionStatsIE, the amateur psephologist and statistician in me loves this sort of stuff. This guy fancies himself as the Irish Nate Silver.

Latest model run:
FG: 55
SF: 35
FF: 32
IND: 18
LAB: 7
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2
GP: 1

Well Nate didn't exactly get the British election right, and any projection that puts SF either a) on 35 seats, or b) ahead of FF, cannot be taken seriously. Mid-20's the max for SF, and FF between 35-40, unlikely to be more.

Working class people are more numerous than core FF voters now

[From the Bunker]

The problem with polls in Ireland is that we have proportional representation. Half of our candidates get elected on their own steam the others get elected on transfers. Polls usually look at a first past the post scenario.

Example

In Mayo there are 16 candidates. 6 are real candidates -

Fine Gael   Enda Kenny, Michelle Mulherin, Michael Ring
Fianna Fáil   Dara Calleary, Lisa Chambers
Sinn Féin   Rose Conway-Walsh

Then there are 10 candidates spread all over the county. None with a any real chance.

Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit   Tom Moran
Green Party   Margaret Sheehan
Independents/ Others    Gerry O'Boyle, Dr Jerry Cowley, Sean Forkin, Peter Jordan, Mohammad Kamal Uddin, Stephen Manning, George O'Malley
Renua Ireland   Michael Farrington

Each of the 10 will take a percentage of the 1st preference vote depending on the location and ideals from the 6 real Candidates, but they are as good as number ones once elimination takes place.  All these are doing is delaying the top 6 getting their real share of the vote and making the figures look askew.

Also looking at the top 6, If Kenny gets over the quota, there is a likelihood a lot of his transfers could go to the local FF candidate Chambers. Here again the figures are askew.

The reality is there are more and more independents running and their figures are distorting end figures. As in most cases Independents are not transfer friendly to each other.

[Rossfan]

To get a proper opinion poll would require a sample of people from every constituency to fill out a sample ballot paper and then do a count with quota etc.
Even then local factors would still make that questionable enough.

[Cunny Funt]

Any sense in Enda saying this about his own town people? http://www.thejournal.ie/enda-kenny-voters-whingers-hometown-2615710-Feb2016/

[mikehunt]

Any sense in Enda saying this about his own town people? http://www.thejournal.ie/enda-kenny-voters-whingers-hometown-2615710-Feb2016/

Only for Kenny FG would piss this election. They need rid. They have him told to keep his mouth shut in the debates and just bark out 'JOBS' from time to time. He doesn't always listen. The accidental taoiseach.