The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[seafoid]

Another thing is the decrease in seats so some constituencies like cork SC, Tipp  and Galway East are all down 1 .

And conversely, others have increased. Laois and Offaly are two three seaters now, whereas the old Laois-Offaly was a 5 seater.

Kerry South and Kerry North merging has also trimmed a seat, to a 5 seater, similar to Tipp. The geographical implications of this are very important. It's going to be very hard for a South Tipp candidate to hoover up North Tipp votes, so do the voters in the South all band together to pick the best local candidate, regardless of party almost?

The constituencies say a lot about population changes. Tipp, Kerry and Ros are losing population or growing more slowly . Leinster and Galway are increasing, for example

[seafoid]

So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.

God help us all!!

A FG&SF gov would generate more growth because it would build social housing and get more money into the economy. The Shinners are pragmatic at the end of the day. They have been made respectable and they have a very solid manifesto . FF need 2 more elections. Labour deserve their humiliation.

[AQMP]

So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.

God help us all!!

A FG&SF gov would generate more growth because it would build social housing and get more money into the economy. The Shinners are pragmatic at the end of the day. They have been made respectable and they have a very solid manifesto . FF need 2 more elections. Labour deserve their humiliation.

I'd be very, very surprised if SF get anywhere near 30.  However the prospect of SF in government shouldn't send people in the South apoplectic.  As seafoid says SF have shown themselves, for the most part, to be very pragmatic in government in the North.  In order to achieve the long term goal of a UI, paradoxically there needs to be a successful working N Ireland and Rep of Ireland.  It's not in SF's interests to be wreckers

[seafoid]

The recovery story is not working maybe because most people do not see it.

[Farrandeelin]

So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.

God help us all!!

So which one are you voting for?

[Rossfan]

So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.

God help us all!!

The secrecy of the ballot box shall remain sacrosanct but won't be voting for Cake, Eugene or the Shinner childeen.

So which one are you voting for?

[seafoid]

So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.

God help us all!!

A FG&SF gov would generate more growth because it would build social housing and get more money into the economy. The Shinners are pragmatic at the end of the day. They have been made respectable and they have a very solid manifesto . FF need 2 more elections. Labour deserve their humiliation.

I'd be very, very surprised if SF get anywhere near 30.  However the prospect of SF in government shouldn't send people in the South apoplectic.  As seafoid says SF have shown themselves, for the most part, to be very pragmatic in government in the North.  In order to achieve the long term goal of a UI, paradoxically there needs to be a successful working N Ireland and Rep of Ireland.  It's not in SF's interests to be wreckers

I think they could. They will have a fighting chance in the majority of constituencies. They are going to get an awful lot of working class votes

[AZOffaly]

1 week to the moratorium. It's been a strangely quiet campaign, considering it's so short. Anyhow, if we are to take Paddy Powers at their word, the Dail will look like this

Carlow Kilkenny, a 5 seater, goes  - 2 Fianna Fail, 2 Fine Gael, 1 Sinn Fein

Cavan Monaghan, a 4 seater, goes - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Sinn Fein

Clare, a 4 seater, goes - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Independent

Cork East, a 4 seater, goes - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Labour

Cork North Central, they are finding a close call. A 4 seater, and they are calling - 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Fine Gael and the final seat at 10/11 for both, between Thomas Gould SF and Mick Barry AAA. Kathleen Lynch is at 6/4.

Cork North West, a 3 seater, goes - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail

Cork South Central is a 4 seater, and has some big names. They go - 2 Fine Gael, 2 Fianna Fail with Ciaran Lynch of Labour outside looking in at 5/1. He's seen as a lesser chance than Donnacha O'Laoghaire of SF (8/13)

Cork South West is a 3 seater, and they see - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail.

Up to Donegal, they see this 5 seater as - 2 Sinn Fein, 2 Fianna Fail and 1 Fine Gael

Onto the Dublin area, starting with 5 seater Dublin Bay North, and PP are giving seats to everyone here. - 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Labour, 1 Sinn Fein and 1 Independent.

The 4 seater Dublin Bay South they see as - 1 Fine Gael, 1 Renua (Lucinda herself), 1 Labour and 1 Green (Eamonn Ryan)

Dublin Central, a 3 seater, they see as - 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Fine Gael and 1 Independent.

In the 5 seater Fingal constituency, they spread them out again - 1 United Left, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Labour and 1 Sinn Fein

Dublin Mid West, a 4 seater, they see as 2 Fine Gael, 1 Sinn Fein and 1 Fianna Fail.

Dublin North West, a 3 seater, they have as - 1 Social Democrat (Roisin Shortall), 1 Sinn Fein and 1 Fine Gael.

Dublin Rathdown is a 3 seater and they see it as - 1 Independent (Shane Ross) and 2 Fine Gael, with Alex White of Labour losing out.

Dublin South Central is a 4 seater and they go - 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Independent and 1 AAA/People Before PRofit

The 5 Seat Dublin South West they see as - 2 Sinn Fein, 1 AAA/PBP, 1 Fine Gael and 1 Fianna Fail

Dublin West is a 4 seater, and we could have a big name faller here. PPs are going - 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Sinn Fein and 1 AAA/PBP. That would mean no Joan Burton, who is an 11/8 shot, with the next 'worst' being 1/7 on.

The last Dublin constituency is Dun Laoghaire, and they see the 3 seats going to 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail and 1 AAA/BPB in the personage of Richard Boyd Barrett.

Back out the country now to Galway East, a 3 seater - Another tight one for the last seat. They are calling 1 Fine Gael, 1 Independent and 4/6 both Colm Keaveney (FF) and Paul Connaughton (FG).

Galway West is a 5 seater and they see it as - 2 Independents, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail and 1 Sinn Fein.

Now down to Kerry, a 5 seater, where they see - 2 Independents (The Healy Rae Brothers!!), 2 FG and 1 Fianna Fail. This would mean a shock for long time Sinn Fein TD Martin Ferris. He is quoted at 2/5 mind you, so he's not exactly a huge outsider.  It might come down to him v Brassil of FF (3/10) for the last seat.

They see the 4 seater Kildare North as - 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Labour and 1 Social Democrat

Kildare South, a 3 seater, they see as - 1 Fine Gael, 1 FF, 1 Labour

Laois is a new constituency of 3 seats and they see - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Sinn Fein

Now the 4 seat Limerick City, and Jan O'Sullivan of Labour looks in a fight here as they go - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail and 1 Sinn Fein. O'Sullivan is 8/11 while the second FG seat is a 1/3 chance. Noonan and O'Dea are certs, and it looks like Quinlivan of Sinn Fein may do the damage.

Limerick County is a 3 seater, and they see - 1 FF, 1 Independent and 1 FG.

Now Longford Westmeath, where they see the 4 seats going to - 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 Lab.

In Louth, they see Gerry bring home 2 of the 5 seats for Sinn Fein - 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF and 1 Lab. Peter Fitzpatrick is the one they are picking to miss out.

In the Taoiseach's home constituency, Mayo, they see the 4 seats going to - 3 FG, 1 FF.

Meath East, a 3 seater, they see as - 1 FF, 2 FG.

Meath West, another 3 seater, they see as - 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG

Offaly is another new constituency, a 3 seater, which takes in a lot of north Tipp. They go - 1 FG, 1 FF and 1 Renua (John Leahy, a former GDO for the Offaly GAA)

Is Roscommon-Galway they see the 3 seats up for grabs as - 2 Inds and 1 FG, with Cake missing out.

Sligo Leitrim is a 4 seater, and they go - 1 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF.

Tipperary is a new 5 seater, combining North and South Tipp (minus the north that went to Offaly) and they see - 1 Independent, 2 FF, 1 Labour and 1 FG. That would see Alan Kelly keep his seat, and if Joan Burton loses hers, maybe the new Labour leader. It's far from certain here though.Mattie McGrath and Seamus Healy are both excluded on that basis, and they have serious chances.

Waterford is a 4 seater and they go - 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 Independent.

Wexford is a 5 seater, and they see it as - 1 Ind, 2 FG, 1 Lab and 1 FF

Finally Wicklow is another 5 seater, and they see - 1 SD, 2 FG, 1 SF, and the last seat between Billy Timmins of Renua (8/13) and Pat Casey of FF (also 8/13).

[Esmarelda]

AZ, where did you get that information from?

[AZOffaly]

Paddy Power

[Billys Boots]

Did you not do the sums afterwards AZ??

[AZOffaly]

I did. I meant to add that at the bottom. If we give .5 a seat where they are not able to separate them in the betting the Dail would look like this...

Fine Gael   60.5 (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail   36
Sinn Fein   23.5
Independents   16
Labour   10
AAA/PAP   4.5
SD   3
Renua   2.5
ULA   1
Green   1

[ballinaman]

I think Mulherin might get caught for 3rd seat in Mayo for FG. Conway-Walsh (SF) will do well in North Mayo..
Kenny, Ring and Calleary(FF) are nailed on.

[Rossfan]

I did. I meant to add that at the bottom. If we give .5 a seat where they are not able to separate them in the betting the Dail would look like this...

Fine Gael   60.5 (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail   36
Sinn Fein   23.5
Independents   16
Labour   10
AAA/PAP   4.5
SD   3
Renua   2.5
ULA   1
Green   1

So FG/Lab require 10 from the hotchpotch to get back in.
Very few mercs/perks for Lab then.... Could they jump ship and head for the opposition benches?

[Declan]

Meath East could yet turn out to be 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF