six county elections 05/05/2011

[Milltown Row2]

Look before this everyone on here was talking about referendums and Marty was going to be the First Minister (Marty never said this) 

The status quo will remain for a while yet. The low turn out would not help both sides equally so we are were we are.

[Maguire01]

and i'm saying that a stoop vote is a vote wasted

Your arrogance knows no bounds.

[Maguire01]

Look before this everyone on here was talking about referendums and Marty was going to be the First Minister (Marty never said this) 

The status quo will remain for a while yet. The low turn out would not help both sides equally so we are were we are.

The status quo is surely positive for those looking to maintain the status quo(?)

[ziggysego]

Anyone else think that Alliance MLA Trevor Lunn is the double for former US Democrat Senator Ted Kennedy?

[trileacman]

Two things are happening. The assembly was very popular with nationalists and they turned out in numbers in the past to vote for it, a measure of apathy has now set in. There are more centrist votes, this has meant that the nationalist vote tend not to increase and the unionist vote declines. In an election or two it will be equal votes for nationalists and unionists and 10% for the middle.

I would draw a different conclusion. The low turnout shows that apathy has set in across the whole spectrum of voters. Despite 30 years of bloodshed, repression and reprisals, the people of the north are now more indifferent to politics as the vast majority of the Uk, Ireland and Western Europe. Turnout was 15% lower than recent irish and 5% behind the uk elections.

Also the Alliance electoral gain is increasing steadily, 1.5% in 2007, 2.5% in 2011. They are really the only party who can walk away saying they had a successful election. They so no sign of hitting their ceiling and I think they will have a big part to play in elections of the future

[armaghniac]

Despite 30 years of bloodshed, repression and reprisals, the people of the north are now more indifferent to politics as the vast majority of the Uk, Ireland and Western Europe.

Firstly, the NI assembly has limited enough powers, they might be able to affect your water charges, but not your income tax rate. The 26 county election had real issues at play, and in some European countries voting is compulsory. Also the present structure means that even on water charges there isn't much competition, did Lawnseed read the SDLP or UU manifesto re water charges, road development etc.

Alliance will do well, although they mostly exist East of the Bann.

[Gaffer]

What would you call great?

alright i feeling generous i'll take any political achievement any thing at all besides getting a salary

Lawnseed,  this is for you !



http://tinyurl.com/3zupnl2

so thats your argument... are you Marguerite Richie do you preach about double jobbing and then do it yourself. stoops the party that tried to join fianna fail totally ignoring the Irish labour party supposedly their sister party such is their lack of integrity.. sad Little people

No and no      Can't take you seriously at all. You're good for a laugh though.

PS. Learn how to punctuate

the voice of authority.. barry mcelduff is also good for a laugh but he has a message.. and i'm saying that a stoop vote is a vote wasted they will start pointing the finger a wee maggie now and she will take the blame for their poor showing. i'd say their dwindling majority in derry is a real worry and the fact that despite the verbal gangbang of catronia ruane by all and sundry for all of the tenure of her ministry she still got elected.. for all the mud they threw most of it rebounded on to themselves. what will follow will be bitter recriminations and back stabbing its what they do best

What's the message there now? Keep 'er lit?  Quality stuff indeed !

[lawnseed]

Despite 30 years of bloodshed, repression and reprisals, the people of the north are now more indifferent to politics as the vast majority of the Uk, Ireland and Western Europe.

Firstly, the NI assembly has limited enough powers, they might be able to affect your water charges, but not your income tax rate. The 26 county election had real issues at play, and in some European countries voting is compulsory. Also the present structure means that even on water charges there isn't much competition, did Lawnseed read the SDLP or UU manifesto re water charges, road development etc.

Alliance will do well, although they mostly exist East of the Bann.

i didnt get copies of either the stoops or the uup manifesto but i did watch the preformance of their leaders who simply spend their time griping and name calling and complaining about the status quo in politics. the north has never been more a part of the uk than it is now and the "unionists" are complaining about the status quo , In the other camp nationalists/republicans - local people have now some say in the actual running of this part of ireland (not faceless brits) a guy from south armagh- connor murphy is a minister and what are the stoops doing-- trying their best to blacken him and ridicule him right from the word go. incidently i think sinn fein are wrong on water charges i would be quite happy to pay for water after they give me a meter but i object to flat rate billing since it is merely revenue gathering and ignores conservation.
the sdlp mean nothing and say nothing they sit back and talk shite about fairness and justice and allow the catholic church to pull their strings, this is a divided society we need people who are going to fight for our rights, and give us parity. the shinners are doing the business with the dup and that leaves the stoops redundent

[Gaffer]

The shinners are doing the business ?? 

What have they done for nationalists?

Marty spends his time licking Robinson's hole while Catriona is a total embarrassment.

[lawnseed]

The shinners are doing the business ?? 

What have they done for nationalists?

Marty spends his time licking Robinson's hole while Catriona is a total embarrassment.

not like Margarete Richy shes not an embarrassment or colour seargent tom burns out viewing 'our boys' sure they're great reps to have.
or in tomas case have not

[Evil Genius]

The only talking point in this election is whether unionist parties get more than 50% of the vote.

If you add the total Unionist vote, it's bloody close, as follows:
DUP: 30.0%; UUP: 13.2%; TUV: 2.5%; UKIP/Progressive Unionist/BNP/PUP: 1.2%; Independent Unionists (McClarty, Purvis, McCord, McFarland, Chambers): 1.4% = 48.3%

Presently SF + SDLP are about 41.1% and neither side parties (Alliance etc) are about 9.5%, so it seems that they will not.

The final Alliance share of the vote was 7.7%. These were gained overwhlemingly in Unionist-majority consituencies i.e. in the 7 constituencies* with a Nationalist majority, the Alliance share was just 1.5%. Whereas in the other 11 (i.e. Unionist majority) constituencies, the Alliance share was 12.5%.

As for the Green Party, I would not ascribe its vote (0.9% of the total) to either Unionism or Nationalism, but would point out that of the 6 constituencies where they fielded a candidate, all bar one were in Unionist-majority constituencies (E.Antrim/E.Belfast/S.Belfast/Lagan Valley/N.Down versus S.Down), with their stand-out performer (Agnew) winning his seat in solidly Unionist North Down.


* - F&ST, W.Tyrone, Foyle, Mid-Ulster, Newry & Armagh, South Down, W.Belfast

Although turnout is low everywhere, there might still be some turnout effects whereas turnout was lowest in E Antrim and higher West of the Bann.

In the 7 Nationalist-majority constituencies, the average turnout was 60.5%. In the 11 Unionist-majority constituencies, the average turnout was 50.5%.
I would guess that the Shinners (esp) and SDLP must be closer to maximising their vote than the various Unionist parties - further cause for pessimism for the former, I would say.

[armaghniac]

48% might be close to a majority for unionists, but in every other election since 1922 unionist had a majority.

[Evil Genius]

Let this fool no-one, the vast majority of Unionists want to see the nationalist people back in the 70s with no say, no rights and no chance.

Yes I know Evil Genius will reply with 10 different replies to my statement in nought point three seconds, just like he has commented on Elliots behaviour (yeah right) 

Which explains why the DUP vote has collapsed since it has begun to move towards the centre; why the Alliance Party never gets any votes in Unionist areas; and why Unionists everywhere have flocked to the UUP since Tom Elliott took over (that is when they're not voting for the TUV)

No wait...

Anyhow, you can go on believing what it suits your prejudices to believe. After all, it must be easier than opening your eyes to what's actually happening around you...

[Evil Genius]

48% might be close to a majority for unionists, but in every other election since 1922 unionist had a majority.

As I've indicated elsewhere, it seems indisputable that the clear majority of the 8.6% who voted Alliance or Green are from the Unionist community. So should it come to the test, I have no doubt these would vote "No" in a UI referendum.

Plus turnout figures clearly indicate that there are more "Garden Centre Prods" than their "Taig" counterparts, whom some or other of the various Unionist parties might hope to attract, should they come up with the right policies.

And in any case, between the DUP, UUP, TUV and Independent Unionist (McClarty), Unionism has scored a clear majority (56) of the 108 Stormont seats.

Whereas SF and the SDLP only managed 43 between them.

Still, you keep polishing that silver lining - I'm sure it must be a great comfort to you as you sit in the shade of that big, white fluffy thing in the sky! 

[Evil Genius]

maguire can you dig up any figures for actual percentage of the vote between the parties

Percentages and changes below. Minimal differences really.

DUP       30.0%      -0.1%
SF         26.9%       0.8%
SDLP     14.2%       -1.0%
UUP      13.2%       -1.7%
All         7.7%         2.5%
Others   5.4%        -2.9%
TUV      2.5%         2.5%

And no doubt we'll have Evil Genius along, able to point to these figures as evidence that the Nationalist vote does indeed seem to have stalled.

"Res Ipsa Loquitur" 

Are Catholics now becoming acquainted with garden centres as well?

The average turnout figure of 60.5% in Nationalist-majority constituencies, versus 50.5% iin Unionist-majority constituencies, would suggest not.

But it will be the final nail in the coffin of Gerry and Marty's dreams if they (RC's) ever should forsake green politics for green fingers!