The Luke "Ming" Flanagan Thread

[deiseach]

Lar Naparka, you said you don't follow 'dúirt bean liom', but that's exactly what you are doing here. I originally asked for a citation for the notion that the numbers claiming the dole 'dipped dramatically' at the time of the ash cloud. Your reply seemed to indicate that the mere fact that everyone knows that the ash cloud wreaked havoc with air travel spares you the need to provide some evidence for your assertion. foxcommander provided a link with the figures and they showed that the numbers did not dip dramatically, not as far as the authorities are concerned anyway. Then we have references to two taxi drivers in Dublin airport and the length of queues on Burgh Quay. You are entitled to make judgements based on that kind of evidence, and I'm entitled to view it as the flimsiest evidence imaginable.

[muppet]

Lar Naparka, you said you don't follow 'dúirt bean liom', but that's exactly what you are doing here. I originally asked for a citation for the notion that the numbers claiming the dole 'dipped dramatically' at the time of the ash cloud. Your reply seemed to indicate that the mere fact that everyone knows that the ash cloud wreaked havoc with air travel spares you the need to provide some evidence for your assertion. foxcommander provided a link with the figures and they showed that the numbers did not dip dramatically, not as far as the authorities are concerned anyway. Then we have references to two taxi drivers in Dublin airport and the length of queues on Burgh Quay. You are entitled to make judgements based on that kind of evidence, and I'm entitled to view it as the flimsiest evidence imaginable.

+1

Lar, I don't mean to have a go but your opening statement on this was to attack the numbers given by Labour and FG. Fair enough.

But you backed it up with numbers that wouldn't stand up to much public scrutiny either.

[ludermor]

In the lead up to the last local elections, Labour claimed that over 90, 000 jobs had been created and over 4,000 (I think) new classrooms had been built.
I tee no evidence to suggest that the former claim is true but I'm certain that the second one was not. I contacted some former colleagues, members of the INTO executive to check and, as expected, I found out that the INTO at least knew nothing about any major building initiative.
If If there had been any significant increase in ether number of classrooms in the second level sector, I would have heard about it. I didn't and so I take both claims to be bogus.

There has been 3 phases completed of the Schools PPP Programme ( out of 5), i don't know how many rooms have been built but i remember something about the scheme catering for 20,000 pupils ( a taxi man must have told me) . I would consider 27 schools to be a major building initiative .

Even if 27 schools have been built, that's a long, long way short of 4,000 classrooms which is the point I've been stressing.
Maybe your taxi driver might tell you where those schools have been built next time you talk to him. That's more than was built in any of the Celtic Tiger years.

Lar you are the one who said 4000 rooms, can you verify this somehow? i only stated that there is currently the Schools PPP programme in place to build 27 schools of which 3 phases of 5 have been complete. In my mind this is a major building initiative. i dont need my taxi driver to tell me, its not too difficult to find the schools

Completed Schools
Bundle 1
St Mary's CBS, Portlaoise
Scoil Chríost Rí, Portloaise
St Rynagh's CC Banagher
Gallen CS Ferbane

Bundle 2
Bantry Community College, Co. Cork.
Gaelscoil Bheanntraí, Co. Cork.
Kildare Town Community School, Co. Kildare.
Abbeyfeale Community College, Co. Limerick.
Wicklow Town Community College, Co. Wicklow.
Athboy Community School, Co. Meath.

Bundle 3
Gorey Community School (Gorey, Co Wexford):
Tramore Secondary School (Tramore, Co Waterford):
Doughiska Community College (Doughiska, Galway City, Co. Galway):
Doughiska Primary School: .
Athlone Community College (Athlone, Co. Westmeath):
Ballinamore Community School (Ballinamore, Co. Leitrim):
Gaelcholáiste, Coláiste Ailigh (Letterkenny, Co. Donegal):
Doon Secondary School (Doon, Co. Limerick):


Schools PPP Bundle 4 - comprises of 6 schools - 4 replacement schools and 2 new schools.  The bundle will provide new accomodation for approx. 4000 students

Comeragh College, Carrick on Suir            Post Primary   Replacement
Skibbereen, Co. Cork   Post Primary   Replacement
St. Josephs, Tulla, Co. Clare   Post Primary   Replacement
St. Mary's, Dundalk, Co. Louth   Post Primary   Replacement
Celbridge, Co. Kildare   Post Primary    New
Celbridge, Co. Kildare   Primary   New

Schools PPP Bundle 5 - comprises 6 institutions and will deliver accomodation for approx. 4650 students

St. Philomena's National School, Bray   Primary   Replacement
Eureka Secondary School, Kells   Post Primary   Replacement
Coláiste Raithín, Bray   Post Primary   Replacement
Loreto College, Wexford   Post Primary   Replacement
Carlow Town - Post Primary   Post Primary   New
Carlow Town - Further Education   Post Primary   New

[Lar Naparka]

Lar Naparka, you said you don't follow 'dúirt bean liom', but that's exactly what you are doing here. I originally asked for a citation for the notion that the numbers claiming the dole 'dipped dramatically' at the time of the ash cloud. Your reply seemed to indicate that the mere fact that everyone knows that the ash cloud wreaked havoc with air travel spares you the need to provide some evidence for your assertion. foxcommander provided a link with the figures and they showed that the numbers did not dip dramatically, not as far as the authorities are concerned anyway. Then we have references to two taxi drivers in Dublin airport and the length of queues on Burgh Quay. You are entitled to make judgements based on that kind of evidence, and I'm entitled to view it as the flimsiest evidence imaginable.

+1

Lar, I don't mean to have a go but your opening statement on this was to attack the numbers given by Labour and FG. Fair enough.

But you backed it up with numbers that wouldn't stand up to much public scrutiny either.

Okay, too much here to reply to at once.
I don't have a job to go to so I have to leave the keyboard idle from time to time.
As we're both from Mayo, where we often do things are done arseways, I'll take it from the end if you don't mind.
Will you accept that all people depend on circumstantial evidence to some degree to make decisions that affect their daily lives?
To get to the point regarding the numbers who leave Ireland every year, I did not go directly to anyone to ask a specific yes nor no question.
I read in the Indo that a quoted number of people were leaving the country every week. So I did not make the figure up or arrive at any arbitrary figure through pure chance or whatever.
I take the Indo to be a serious publication , which is a subjective decision I know but we all have to make true/false decisions on an ongoing basis. (True or false?)

So before I approached anyone else, I had a set figure in mind. So I asked two separate individuals a simple question; in their experience could the figure of 125 be an accurate one?
Neither was asked for anything of a subjective nature and I was looking for a reply based on their direct experience of dealing with people arriving at or departing from Dublin Airport. It seems to me that your angst stems from the fact that I didn't stress this from the beginning but I've made it quite clear since that I was using the Indo article as a guideline.; the figure wasn't plucked out of thin air.
Now, I don't know what you or deiseach object to here. Is it the article in the Indo or the assessment of the two work have direct experience of people passing through?
If you require a forensic level of evidence to prove everything that's put before you at all times, you ain't going to get much satisfaction.
My main preoccupation has been with the numbers coming in and here I'd put greater reliance on the opinions of taxi drivers who work the Dublin rank.
If they don't know what's happening, who better is there to turn to. Immigration officials who do a cursory check on a incoming peoples' passports? I don't think so.
Besides, I didn't put a loaded question to either. It was along the lines of "Are there more coming in than go out every week" sort of query.
If they are not qualified that question than you or I, then who is?
So you don't attach any credence t the sight of long queues outside the INIS office?
Is it hearsay to say that people who queue there are non-EEA nationals who come to register and /or obtain work permits?
If you think so, the least I'd expect is a credible reason for feeling that they are there for some other reason.
Many of our ancestors where transported on far flimsier evidence that I've given above.
I'm being serious here; I've given my reasons for saying what I maintain in excruciatingly tedious detail and  yet all I get back from my detractors is sarcasm with not a hint of a reason for doubting my word.
I'm concerned that I'm beginning to come across as an out and out racist which is not to my liking at all.
If you or deiseach think,  that, say the queues on Burgh Quay are there merely to enjoy the view or pass the time or whatever, please let me know.

[muppet]

Lar Naparka, you said you don't follow 'dúirt bean liom', but that's exactly what you are doing here. I originally asked for a citation for the notion that the numbers claiming the dole 'dipped dramatically' at the time of the ash cloud. Your reply seemed to indicate that the mere fact that everyone knows that the ash cloud wreaked havoc with air travel spares you the need to provide some evidence for your assertion. foxcommander provided a link with the figures and they showed that the numbers did not dip dramatically, not as far as the authorities are concerned anyway. Then we have references to two taxi drivers in Dublin airport and the length of queues on Burgh Quay. You are entitled to make judgements based on that kind of evidence, and I'm entitled to view it as the flimsiest evidence imaginable.

+1

Lar, I don't mean to have a go but your opening statement on this was to attack the numbers given by Labour and FG. Fair enough.

But you backed it up with numbers that wouldn't stand up to much public scrutiny either.

Okay, too much here to reply to at once.
I don't have a job to go to so I have to leave the keyboard idle from time to time.
As we're both from Mayo, where we often do things are done arseways, I'll take it from the end if you don't mind.
Will you accept that all people depend on circumstantial evidence to some degree to make decisions that affect their daily lives?
To get to the point regarding the numbers who leave Ireland every year, I did not go directly to anyone to ask a specific yes nor no question.
I read in the Indo that a quoted number of people were leaving the country every week. So I did not make the figure up or arrive at any arbitrary figure through pure chance or whatever.
I take the Indo to be a serious publication , which is a subjective decision I know but we all have to make true/false decisions on an ongoing basis. (True or false?)

So before I approached anyone else, I had a set figure in mind. So I asked two separate individuals a simple question; in their experience could the figure of 125 be an accurate one?
Neither was asked for anything of a subjective nature and I was looking for a reply based on their direct experience of dealing with people arriving at or departing from Dublin Airport. It seems to me that your angst stems from the fact that I didn't stress this from the beginning but I've made it quite clear since that I was using the Indo article as a guideline.; the figure wasn't plucked out of thin air.
Now, I don't know what you or deiseach object to here. Is it the article in the Indo or the assessment of the two work have direct experience of people passing through?
If you require a forensic level of evidence to prove everything that's put before you at all times, you ain't going to get much satisfaction.
My main preoccupation has been with the numbers coming in and here I'd put greater reliance on the opinions of taxi drivers who work the Dublin rank.
If they don't know what's happening, who better is there to turn to. Immigration officials who do a cursory check on a incoming peoples' passports? I don't think so.
Besides, I didn't put a loaded question to either. It was along the lines of "Are there more coming in than go out every week" sort of query.
If they are not qualified that question than you or I, then who is?
So you don't attach any credence t the sight of long queues outside the INIS office?
Is it hearsay to say that people who queue there are non-EEA nationals who come to register and /or obtain work permits?
If you think so, the least I'd expect is a credible reason for feeling that they are there for some other reason.
Many of our ancestors where transported on far flimsier evidence that I've given above.
I'm being serious here; I've given my reasons for saying what I maintain in excruciatingly tedious detail and  yet all I get back from my detractors is sarcasm with not a hint of a reason for doubting my word.
I'm concerned that I'm beginning to come across as an out and out racist which is not to my liking at all.
If you or deiseach think,  that, say the queues on Burgh Quay are there merely to enjoy the view or pass the time or whatever, please let me know.

Lar you mentioned an Indo article and didn't link it.
You then said your two taxi men claimed that the figure in the Indo article is understated. You ask 'If they don't know what's happening, who better is there to turn to.' - Taxi drivers? I use them a lot. They provide a great service, but I certainly wouldn't turn to them for statistical analysis on any issue, never mind invite the racist rant a minority of them offer all to frequently.
You then point to long queues at the INIS office.

Try this instead: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2013/#.U8ZpllameNk

[foxcommander]

Try this instead: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2013/#.U8ZpllameNk

There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

I at one point I used to contribute to the CSO (some a-hole friend invited them in) and they kept coming back for a year. I told them I was an eskimo. In fact could tell them anything I wanted.

How can they tell how many people emigrated if those people aren't there to tell the CSO they've gone? Or do they pluck a figure out of the air or just ask the lads in the taxi rank?

[muppet]

Try this instead: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2013/#.U8ZpllameNk

There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

I at one point I used to contribute to the CSO (some a-hole friend invited them in) and they kept coming back for a year. I told them I was an eskimo. In fact could tell them anything I wanted.

How can they tell how many people emigrated if those people aren't there to tell the CSO they've gone? Or do they pluck a figure out of the air or just ask the lads in the taxi rank?

I'd say you are wayyyy to clever for them.

As for your last question.

All airlines are required to keep certain data on passengers. Some countries require extensive data, e.g. the USA. The DAA also collates data on passenger movements.

Then you have the surveys that the CSO carry out from time to time. They are the ones with the clipboards wandering around the airport that you see people running away from.

[deiseach]

I'm being serious here; I've given my reasons for saying what I maintain in excruciatingly tedious detail and  yet all I get back from my detractors is sarcasm with not a hint of a reason for doubting my word.

You are drawing broad conclusions from narrow observations. Less than 2% of people failing to turn up to sign on after the ash cloud, something that the relevant department did not think was a big deal. The word of a couple of taxi drivers, self-evidently an example of the dúirt-bean-liom that you claim not to follow. Queues outside an office in an era of civil service cutbacks and redeployment. All of this may be excruciating and tedious, but it isn't detailed. And to put the tin hat on it, your statement above where anyone who objects has to prove you wrong. You can't prove a negative. The onus is on you to prove that your statements are correct and the evidence you provide is unconvincing. We can agree to disagree.

[foxcommander]

Try this instead: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2013/#.U8ZpllameNk

There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

I at one point I used to contribute to the CSO (some a-hole friend invited them in) and they kept coming back for a year. I told them I was an eskimo. In fact could tell them anything I wanted.

How can they tell how many people emigrated if those people aren't there to tell the CSO they've gone? Or do they pluck a figure out of the air or just ask the lads in the taxi rank?

I'd say you are wayyyy to clever for them.

I'm far too clever

[lynchbhoy]

im not having a go at the civil service here , BUT...

you lad can argue til the cows come home. there is no proper data in this country as there is no proper database.
the civil service couldn't be arsed doing a proper job as this is 'new work' that 'isn't in their job spec' (therefore they want more dosh for it).

ive worked for several gov depts. and agencies and this is the norm, sadly.


we need to set up proper policy, procedure and regulation on everything and this is just one area - immigration, emigration etc.
link the central database with all gov depts.- dole, water charges, house charges etc etc etc

presently it cant be done as they are still separate databases for each section/dept.

[muppet]

im not having a go at the civil service here , BUT...

you lad can argue til the cows come home. there is no proper data in this country as there is no proper database.
the civil service couldn't be arsed doing a proper job as this is 'new work' that 'isn't in their job spec' (therefore they want more dosh for it).

ive worked for several gov depts. and agencies and this is the norm, sadly.


we need to set up proper policy, procedure and regulation on everything and this is just one area - immigration, emigration etc.
link the central database with all gov depts.- dole, water charges, house charges etc etc etc

presently it cant be done as they are still separate databases for each section/dept.

Worse than that, it is quite tricky to share data due to data protection issues: http://www.dataprotection.ie/docs/Data-Sharing-in-the-Public-Sector/1217.htm

It gives them a convenient excuse to hide behind.

[lynchbhoy]

im not having a go at the civil service here , BUT...

you lad can argue til the cows come home. there is no proper data in this country as there is no proper database.
the civil service couldn't be arsed doing a proper job as this is 'new work' that 'isn't in their job spec' (therefore they want more dosh for it).

ive worked for several gov depts. and agencies and this is the norm, sadly.


we need to set up proper policy, procedure and regulation on everything and this is just one area - immigration, emigration etc.
link the central database with all gov depts.- dole, water charges, house charges etc etc etc

presently it cant be done as they are still separate databases for each section/dept.

Worse than that, it is quite tricky to share data due to data protection issues: http://www.dataprotection.ie/docs/Data-Sharing-in-the-Public-Sector/1217.htm

It gives them a convenient excuse to hide behind.

that's not an issue at all - as data can be permissioned off so that only the highest level can access it - or the reports set to run against it (with the reports configurable to not garner various fields or certain types of info).

but you are right- if can/is held as an excuse.
The biggest problem though, is that such a unified database of info is as far away as going on sun holiday without breathing apparatus or gravity boots to the moon.

[Lar Naparka]

Lar Naparka, you said you don't follow 'dúirt bean liom', but that's exactly what you are doing here. I originally asked for a citation for the notion that the numbers claiming the dole 'dipped dramatically' at the time of the ash cloud. Your reply seemed to indicate that the mere fact that everyone knows that the ash cloud wreaked havoc with air travel spares you the need to provide some evidence for your assertion. foxcommander provided a link with the figures and they showed that the numbers did not dip dramatically, not as far as the authorities are concerned anyway. Then we have references to two taxi drivers in Dublin airport and the length of queues on Burgh Quay. You are entitled to make judgements based on that kind of evidence, and I'm entitled to view it as the flimsiest evidence imaginable.

As I've already said, it was very remiss of me to bring up the volcanic ash incident and assume that everyone would know what I was referring to. I accept it was wrong to do so and I should, at the very least, attempted to  provide some corroboration.
I really don't know why I included that remark as it wasn't central to the case I was making.
I had intended to say that I agreed with just about all AZOffaly had to say bar the assertion that if EU nationals are undercutting Irish workers it may be because the Irish have priced themselves out of the market and I beg to differ with that.
That's the point I was intending to put and regret that I went off-topic.
What I've had to say about numbers entering and leaving the country, especially the former, is quite a different matter. While you and muppet appear to rubbish my findings , neither of you have advanced a single reason why.
I don't intend to carry on with this pointlessly prattle any longer. I assume both of us have better things to do.
However, if either of you can give a credible reason for people queuing patiently outside the NSIS offices on Burgh Quay for hours on end, that is not related to non-EAA persons getting entry visas,  I'd love to know.

[Lar Naparka]

In the lead up to the last local elections, Labour claimed that over 90, 000 jobs had been created and over 4,000 (I think) new classrooms had been built.
I tee no evidence to suggest that the former claim is true but I'm certain that the second one was not. I contacted some former colleagues, members of the INTO executive to check and, as expected, I found out that the INTO at least knew nothing about any major building initiative.
If If there had been any significant increase in ether number of classrooms in the second level sector, I would have heard about it. I didn't and so I take both claims to be bogus.

There has been 3 phases completed of the Schools PPP Programme ( out of 5), i don't know how many rooms have been built but i remember something about the scheme catering for 20,000 pupils ( a taxi man must have told me) . I would consider 27 schools to be a major building initiative .

Even if 27 schools have been built, that's a long, long way short of 4,000 classrooms which is the point I've been stressing.
Maybe your taxi driver might tell you where those schools have been built next time you talk to him. That's more than was built in any of the Celtic Tiger years.

Lar you are the one who said 4000 rooms, can you verify this somehow? i only stated that there is currently the Schools PPP programme in place to build 27 schools of which 3 phases of 5 have been complete. In my mind this is a major building initiative. i dont need my taxi driver to tell me, its not too difficult to find the schools

Completed Schools
Bundle 1
St Mary's CBS, Portlaoise
Scoil Chríost Rí, Portloaise
St Rynagh's CC Banagher
Gallen CS Ferbane

Bundle 2
Bantry Community College, Co. Cork.
Gaelscoil Bheanntraí, Co. Cork.
Kildare Town Community School, Co. Kildare.
Abbeyfeale Community College, Co. Limerick.
Wicklow Town Community College, Co. Wicklow.
Athboy Community School, Co. Meath.

Bundle 3
Gorey Community School (Gorey, Co Wexford):
Tramore Secondary School (Tramore, Co Waterford):
Doughiska Community College (Doughiska, Galway City, Co. Galway):
Doughiska Primary School: .
Athlone Community College (Athlone, Co. Westmeath):
Ballinamore Community School (Ballinamore, Co. Leitrim):
Gaelcholáiste, Coláiste Ailigh (Letterkenny, Co. Donegal):
Doon Secondary School (Doon, Co. Limerick):


Schools PPP Bundle 4 - comprises of 6 schools - 4 replacement schools and 2 new schools.  The bundle will provide new accomodation for approx. 4000 students

Comeragh College, Carrick on Suir            Post Primary   Replacement
Skibbereen, Co. Cork   Post Primary   Replacement
St. Josephs, Tulla, Co. Clare   Post Primary   Replacement
St. Mary's, Dundalk, Co. Louth   Post Primary   Replacement
Celbridge, Co. Kildare   Post Primary    New
Celbridge, Co. Kildare   Primary   New

Schools PPP Bundle 5 - comprises 6 institutions and will deliver accomodation for approx. 4650 students

St. Philomena's National School, Bray   Primary   Replacement
Eureka Secondary School, Kells   Post Primary   Replacement
Coláiste Raithín, Bray   Post Primary   Replacement
Loreto College, Wexford   Post Primary   Replacement
Carlow Town - Post Primary   Post Primary   New
Carlow Town - Further Education   Post Primary   New

Sure, the figure of 4,000 was used by Labour in a poster campaign coming to the end of the local election campaign. They also used the jobs figures on a separate poster. I'm surprised you haven't come across any of them as they caused a bit of a stir between FG and Lab.
If 27 new schools were indeed built, it would be a tremendous achievement.
However, I'd be a little bit cautious about taking any thing from the Dept or the OPW at face value. I have heard many ministers make their speeches at congress in which massive increases in, say, capital expenditure and the likes were promised and then when the figures were examined afterwards, you'd find that some of the money being promised had already been earmarked sometime before and was nothing new.
So I'd like to know the time frame in which those 27 schools were built and I'd also like to know if they are all ready for occupation for the coming year.  The parents, teachers and kids involved won't care about how long it took to build them or who deserves most credit for proving them with their new premises.

[Lar Naparka]

I'm being serious here; I've given my reasons for saying what I maintain in excruciatingly tedious detail and  yet all I get back from my detractors is sarcasm with not a hint of a reason for doubting my word.

You are drawing broad conclusions from narrow observations. Less than 2% of people failing to turn up to sign on after the ash cloud, something that the relevant department did not think was a big deal. The word of a couple of taxi drivers, self-evidently an example of the dúirt-bean-liom that you claim not to follow. Queues outside an office in an era of civil service cutbacks and redeployment. All of this may be excruciating and tedious, but it isn't detailed. And to put the tin hat on it, your statement above where anyone who objects has to prove you wrong. You can't prove a negative. The onus is on you to prove that your statements are correct and the evidence you provide is unconvincing. We can agree to disagree.

Just saw this now.
One final point.
I can certainly accept that in those days of staff cutbacks etc. having claims processed can be a slow and tedious exercise. no prob there at all.
But on the few occasions I passed by the place, there were far more than 135 people in the queue.
Since this little chat began, I've asked others who pass the place more regularity than I do and I've got the same answer. It's pretty common sight.
The numbers in the queue has nothing to do with the inner workings of the office in question.
Since those having their claims processed does not include EEA members and (asfaik,) covers only the Dublin region, I am quite positive that numbers in recess of 135 enter this country every week.