Missing Plane!!

[Tyrones own]

The isn't enough info hence why sensationalism seems to have the same circulation as informed opinion. The only facts are the weather was very bad in the area and the Acars reports which can perform like the telemetry of an F1 car. The messages mention an electrical failure, a pressurization failure and instrument failures. A pressurization failure doesn't necessarily mean it is sudden as the media assume. And even a complete electrical failure should leave enough Istruments to fly safely.

A bomb could certainly cause multiple failures like that. I don't believe lightning would but an equatorial CB could.

There has been the odd structural failure due to difficulties spotting weaknesses in the composite materials used by Airbus.  They have happened after. A repair procedure didn't pick up further damage.

My gut is with that weather but I hope for the families of the pilots it was a bomb.     

Would the pilots not have known that the weather on the radar was so horrendous that they should hsave changed course or is this too simplistic a view ?


Do you pilot yourself ?

Do you? ( simply through extensive researching of such incidents you would love us all to believe) that you know a lot about the big steel burds for a westie

[Tyrones own]

On a more serious note, I'd say it was unfortunately like most airline disasters, a combination of catastrophic events
(with the exception of a bomb of course) with a structural failure ultimately taking it out of the sky.

Heard on the local news here this morning that an Air France plane the day before leaving out of Venezuela had to be searched for a bomb
after receiving a threat .... the 12 mile long oil slick kinda knocks that theory on the head in this instance though.
I've a feeling we'll never know for sure as I can't see the boxes being found

[Hound]

On a more serious note, I'd say it was unfortunately like most airline disasters, a combination of catastrophic events
(with the exception of a bomb of course) with a structural failure ultimately taking it out of the sky.

Excluding bombs, most (i.e. more than 50%) catastrophic airline events are pilot error

[Doogie Browser]

According to the news this morning, debris found in the sea is not from the missing plane.  The oil slick could well be from a ship also, so its back to square one again it seems.

[orangeman]

According to the news this morning, debris found in the sea is not from the missing plane.  The oil slick could well be from a ship also, so its back to square one again it seems.

Jesus I hope they get some answers qucikly - do the submarines not stand a good chance of picking the boxes signals up ?.

[ONeill]

the 12 mile long oil slick kinda knocks that theory on the head in this instance though.

It doesn't. If there was a bomb there does not necessarily have to be fire. 

[DennistheMenace]

4 days and they can't find the plane ? Madness considering the technoligical advances made.

The making of these sensational claims that they found debri is shocking to the families concerned.

[Treasurer]

Some reports are saying that the first lot of debris spotted in the water probably IS from the plane but none of that has been recovered yet.

[Tyrones own]

the 12 mile long oil slick kinda knocks that theory on the head in this instance though.

It doesn't. If there was a bomb there does not necessarily have to be fire. 

True but what are the odds.....

[muppet]

This seems to be a credible analysis of the weather that was on the route that the Air France flew into. It is quite scientific in nature so if, like me, you don't have a degree in meteorology a lot of it will go over your head. But it is very interesting without ever being sensationalist. It is where I got the charts I posted earlier.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

There could be a number of reasons why they flew into that weather but none would seem logical to us after the event. The A330 has two engines and is limited by what is called ETOPS. Looking at the chart it seems simple to say they should have planned a route further west and pass to the northwest of the weather but the ETOPS restrictions (needing to stay within 180 minutes of an airport) may have forced them to use that route. (Note this is my own speculation and it should be treated as such, I have no evidence to support this this).

This chart from the above site is very interesting:



As they approached the first storm they may not have seen the second much bigger one on the radar. This is a phenomenon of aircraft weather radars that basically when it shows you a storm you can't rely on the information it gives 'behind' the storm. No one knows yet if they manoeuvred around the first one or flew straight through it but either way the second storm system might have be thrust upon them fairly quickly. They might not have had any idea of the extent of it until they had passed the first one. In that case it is a choice of using the radar to pick a route through the weather that shows the least 'returns' or else going around it. It may have seemed too late at that stage to go around it.

[ONeill]

the 12 mile long oil slick kinda knocks that theory on the head in this instance though.

It doesn't. If there was a bomb there does not necessarily have to be fire. 

True but what are the odds.....

Fairly high. Decompressed explosions, maybe caused by a small device in the holdage, can cause metal fatigue that'll lead to a break up of the plane.

I personally believe it was some sort of metal fatigue due to negligence.

[muppet]

Or, some blade forgot to take the tinfoil off the dinners before sticking 12 of them in the microwave at one time.

That explains the lightning but what about the thunder?

[Tyrones own]

Mutterings at this early stage seem to be leaning towards the desired speed at which to punch through such a storm...
..too fast can cause structural failure while too slow causing a stall, either is plausible at this point.
I read there that Airbus had made recommendations on the A330 as far back as a year ago regarding air speed sensors.
Could Ice have been a factor with excessive moisture in the air at - 43 degrees?

[Minder]

Two male bodies and some debris found.

[down6061689194]

Apparently these planes are tested thouroughly in the worst of weather conditions. I've heard that the wings go right up during testing  till you think they're going to break off.

It's unreal how they are tested.
Somehow it is human error more than likely. Be it an engineer on the ground not checking or a pilot error.

Barring a bomb there isnt much else that would take a plane down without the intervention of someone neglegence. I supose that means they don't go down unless someone interfeers.