Catholics the majority in Schools in NI

[SuperMac]

How long has the six county state got to survive I wonder ?

http://www.deni.gov.uk/index/32-statisticsandresearch_pg/32-statistics_and_research_statistics_on_education_pg/32_statistics_and_research-numbersofschoolsandpupils_pg/32_statistics_and_research-northernirelandsummarydata_pg.htm

See the third link down.

[ziggysego]

Could be castle Catholics.

[Minder]

So every Catholic would vote for a united Ireland?

[ardmhachaabu]

So every Catholic would vote for a united Ireland?

Of course they would! 

[armaghniac]

Catholics have been in the majority in schools since the 1980s. It was suggested that this might change as Tague birthrates are now not so different from Prod ones. But the people having children are those in primary school in the 1980s, of which Catholics are in a (small) majority) , so the majority of children are Catholics and so on for all time. Over time the Catholics will also make up a majority of the overall population, as immigration patterns no longer tend to reduce their number.

Not all Catholics are crying out for a United Ireland, but few people from an Irish Catholic background have any objection to it if a deal can be done and they will tend to not to vote for parties who are working against a UI.

[Maguire01]

Over time the Catholics will also make up a majority of the overall population, as immigration patterns no longer tend to reduce their number.

I'd say there was probably some emmigration impact on the Protestant population in the 6 counties over the years that might change too. There was a pattern of Protestants tending to go to University in Scotland (or England) and not coming back. I've heard that there has been a shift towards them returning here to work and live after University, post-troubles. Don't know the stats though, so not sure how significant the numbers are.

[Myles Na G.]

There's a fairly big contradiction in some of the posts on this board. On the one hand, this thread is suggesting that because there is / will be more Catholics in the north than protestants, we're headed for a united Ireland. Other posters have greeted the news that PSNI is now 25% Catholic with a sneer and a question about whether or not those who join the police are nationalists. Others talk about castle catholics. Can't have it both ways, lads. If you're going to question the nationalist credentials of every catholic who isn't a wild eyed republican head banger, then there's feck all point in counting up all the Brendans and Bridgets while  rubbing your hands with glee and singing a nation once again.

[stiffler]

I would imagine there are a number of (educated) protestants who would be favour of an independant ireland as well.

[Maguire01]

I would imagine there are a number of (educated) protestants who would be favour of an independant ireland as well.

Possibly, if they thought it would improve their standard of living, but probably less likely simply for the sake of a political aspiration - and by the same score, those same people would probably vote against it if it appeared likely that it would have a negative effect on their standard of living.

[Donagh]

The boy here has done an analysis of the school census figures and more or less confirmed what we all suspected about the last (2001) census figures in that those of undeclared background were disproportionately allocated a Protestant background.

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/02/schools-census-2008-2009.html


There have been more Catholic than Protestant children for the past ten years. At the end of the day though, the only figures that matter are the intentions of those who come out to vote and in the last election the combined nationalist vote was only 30k behind the combined unionist vote. On current trends, both the Catholic population and nationalist vote will have overtaken the Protestant population and unionist vote within the life of the next Assembly term.

[Maguire01]

At the end of the day though, the only figures that matter are the intentions of those who come out to vote and in the last election the combined nationalist vote was only 30k behind the combined unionist vote. On current trends, both the Catholic population and nationalist vote will have overtaken the Protestant population and unionist vote within the life of the next Assembly term.

Do you think that a majority 'Nationalist' vote will transfer directly into a majority 'yes' vote for unification Donagh?

I wonder what proportion of those who vote for Nationalist parties would definitely vote 'yes' for unification. It wouldn't be 100%. I don't believe it would even be 100% of the SF vote. I just wonder would it take maybe 60% of the population to be voting for Nationalist parties before 51% of the population would vote for unification?

[Rossfan]

nationalist vote will have overtaken the Protestant population and unionist vote within the life of the next Assembly term.

What do we do then?
It wont be like German re unification where East Germany was simply absorbed into the Federal Republic.
How do we accomodate the views,National preferences etc of a  large minority who form a solid block in one area of the Country?
Is it not time we were drawing up various blueprints?

[Minder]

nationalist vote will have overtaken the Protestant population and unionist vote within the life of the next Assembly term.

What do we do then?
It wont be like German re unification where East Germany was simply absorbed into the Federal Republic.
How do we accomodate the views,National preferences etc of a  large minority who form a solid block in one area of the Country?
Is it not time we were drawing up various blueprints?

I think we have time on our side...........

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

Is that yoke under the Gaeilge in the top left Ulster-Scots?... 'Mannystre O Lear' (Ministry of Learning I presume), as far as I can make out... Oh FFS! 

[Donagh]

Do you think that a majority 'Nationalist' vote will transfer directly into a majority 'yes' vote for unification Donagh?

I wonder what proportion of those who vote for Nationalist parties would definitely vote 'yes' for unification. It wouldn't be 100%. I don't believe it would even be 100% of the SF vote. I just wonder would it take maybe 60% of the population to be voting for Nationalist parties before 51% of the population would vote for unification?

I've no reason to suspect that the number wouldn't be along the same lines as the number of Protestant who would vote for a UI so would probably balance out. Either way the only thing that matters is the vote and the nationalist vote is due to overtake the unionist vote around the same time it happens with the population in general. Again there is no reason to suspect that those people currently voting SF and SDLP would vote against a UI. In the short to medium term, things are looking good for Irish nationalism, so long as the republicans can hold their nerves and noses for a little longer.