Aintree Grand National - Sat 4th April 2009

[Our Nail Loney]

RIP exotic dancer


Anyone fancy L'ami for the national?

I do if AP sits on it, along with Black Apalachi of course...

[stiffler]

RIP exotic dancer


Anyone fancy L'ami for the national?

I do if AP sits on it, along with Black Apalachi of course...

APs on butlers cabin

Thornton is on L'ami

[Hardy]

My stats don't differ a whole lot from the last set above, but when I apply them I come up with a fairly different set of contenders.

The first thing I do is eliminate all horses carrying 11 stone or over and any horses aged under 8 or over 12.  Only one horse has managed to win carrying 11 stone or more since 1988. That was Hedgehunter, which was second in a Gold Cup. No horse over 11st. this year is in that class. It's the big stand-out statistic. Statistics don't predict the outcome of a single event, rather the most likely outcomes over a sample of events, but here they do indicate the odds against a horse lumping this kind of load around. Likewise, horses that are too young or too old have the odds stacked against them, based on results.

Then I apply the rest of what I call my main criteria – broadly similar to those mentioned above about current season form, class, proven ability over distance, ability to win in big fields, record in this race, etc. Like Neil from Totesport above, this gives me a set of horses from which I think there's a very high probability the winner will come. At least this has proven the case for the past few years.

This is usually three to five horses. This year, though, it's seven:

Butler's Cabin (10/1)
Offshore Account (33/1)
Parsons Legacy (16/1)
Reveillez (100/1)
Irish Invader (25/1)
Rambling Minster (12/1)
Southern Vic (25/1)

(I'm quoting current best available bookies' odds above. You'll get better deals from Betfair, especially on the higher priced horses, but the Betfair market is suspended at present, so I can't quote their prices).

I'm going to back them all, probably in proportion to their prices and if the trends hold up this year, I'll be in profit. I'll probably place them all as well.

This approach probably doesn't appeal to everyone. I've also applied a set of what I call "secondary criteria" to the qualifiers above based on other statistics, such as number of runs this season, days since last run, form rating, jumping history, etc. (You might say jumping history shouldn't be a secondary criterion, but the fact is that no bad jumpers meet all the main criteria. For the record, Parsons Legacy and Rambling Minster have never fallen or unseated, the other five have each fallen once in their careers and Southern Vic and Offshore Account have also unseated once).

I'm not suggesting these secondary criteria are definitive, and I'm not using them myself to make a final choice (as I say, I'm backing them all) but they may help to make a choice between the main contenders.

Anyway, when I apply these secondary criteria, the horses come out in the following order – best fit first:

Southern Vic
Irish Invader
Butler's Cabin
Offshore Account
Parsons Legacy
Rambling Minster
Reveillez

Some notes on the individual selections:

Southern Vic – ticks nearly every box in the profile of National winners in the last decade or more. The only reservation I'd state is that he hasn't won a race since October '06 – 11 races ago. 17 of the last 18 winners had gone no more than 9 races without a win and 16 of them had gone no longer than 18 months without winning.

Irish Invader – again, has an almost perfect profile. The only slight negative is that he is not long out of novice class – his last novice race was last April. Usually, being a last season novice would disqualify him, but he has won four good handicap chases in senior company since then, which effectively wipes out that reservation. If looking for a reason to oppose him, maybe the fact that all his wins but one have been over 2 miles 2 furlongs or less and his one win over three miles was a novice hurdle is not obvious National material.

Butler's Cabin – probably the best horse in the race and maybe the obvious choice of all the selections. Not surprisingly, he's the lowest priced of them. One of the few in the race to have won over more than four miles and that at Cheltenham. Reservation – he's French bred. This disqualifies him in the eyes of many stats-oriented pundits, because a French-bred has never won the race. I'm discounting that because the reason for the poor performance of French-breds is that the French don't usually go in for breeding stayers. This one is an exception and has proved he's a stayer with that Cheltenham win and his Irish Grand National win in 2007. (Two Irish National winners have gone on to do the double in  recent years). One reservation – he hasn't won a race since that Irish National.

Offshore Account – a bit of a surprise that he fits the bill, but he met all the main criteria, so he's in the list on merit and I couldn't ignore a qualifier, so he'll be on my docket. That's despite the big reservation that he was out all last season and has only run once this season and that was in a handicap Hurdle, so his preparation has to be suspect.

Parsons Legacy – in on merit. A reservation about his preparation – he's run only twice this season and not since last December. All winners since 1990 had run at least four times in that season and had had their final prep race within 48 days of the National.

Rambling Minster – hard to find a negative for him. I suppose the fact that he's not Irish trained (same applies to Butler's Cabin, Reveilez and Parsons Legacy) is a negative in itself, given the performance of Irish trained runners in recent years.

Reveillez. He's a 100/1 shot. They don't often win this. Foinavon in 1967 is the only one in living (for some) memory. But you'd kick yourself if he won at 100/1, having met all the conditions and you hadn't a bob on him.

[Puckoon]

Good man hardy, Im remortgaging the house as we speak!

[A Quinn Martin Production]

Thon ballix McCririck tipped State of Play and Rambling Minster on the radio this morning.  His criterion...neither has ever fallen.

[Our Nail Loney]

Andytown out again today for Hardstation and all the lads...

[bcarrier]

Rambling Minister is the outstanding stats pick.

In addition to Rambling Minister I have these on my shortlist ( all three jocks have good form over national fences ) :

Black Apalachi : weight an issue but great form over national fences and in last outing.
Silver Birch : Probably as place only bet. Previous winners have a good record in getting placed on next appearance in race.
Golden Flight : A complete leap in the dark. French bred with Injury problems and no recent form but classiest horse in race under 11st.

[ONeill]

Andytown out again today for Hardstation and all the lads...

What price?

[youbetterbelieveit]

ONL is he worth a punt?

[Doogie Browser]

Dunwoody tipped Rambling Minster last night too, seems a well fancied one. 

[gerrykeegan]

The office sweep was just done, got to pick two. Pulled Rambling Minster and My Will!! Going to stick the chilldrens allowance on the rest of your picks Hardy, dont let them down, there hungry enough as it is.

[the Deel Rover]

Parsons Legacy is is then.

[one for the road]

andytown 10/1 with sj. worth an ew punt

[ulster-boy]

wouldn't be gettin too stuck into andytown folks...massive rise in the weights after that cheltenham win. wasn't the most competitive cheltenham races either, altho he did win impressively!

[youbetterbelieveit]

Well Lads, what are the betting tips for the day, Am on a day off and going to see if I can earn a few bob!