Race for the ARAS 2025

[Snapchap]

As I said if it was such a tactical master stroke why did it take them 2 months to realise it?

I didn't say it was a "master stroke". I merely said it was tactically the obvious decision. I also agreed that it took them a long time to announce it, but by the same token, it was only just over a week past when FF selected their candidate.

If SF are Ireland's biggest party as you claim, then it's strange they wouldn't seek to run for the office of Irish President.

"If as I claim"? Its not an opinion, it's just called counting. And no, it's not strange. Not sure how many times I have to ask this, but why would they jeopardise the alliances they will rely on at the next general election, merely for a chance to run a candidate in a nothing election?

If it's all been about lefty unity as you claim why have the Labour Party been sticking the boot into SF for not supporting Connolly from the start?

Because she suspected they were reneaging on the co-operation that the left has been showing, perhaps? I mena, is that not kinda obvious answer?

And what do you mean by "if" it's about "lefty" unity? Are you trying to claim that the left has not been forging a tighter alliance during this term of government? Because if you are going to deny that, then we're wasting our time trying to have an adult discussion. Any ideas why it might suit SF to have a united left?? I'll give you a hint....I've stated the reason repeatedly in the last few posts.

Or maybe it's that you aren't going to be brazen enough to suggest that the left haven't been forging a tighter alliance, but you were under the impression that when politcal parties with vaguely similar beliefs try to work more closely together, they aren't allowed to criticise eachother at all, which would be a very naive understanding of how politics works.

[Snapchap]

Do any/many people decide their vote on TV debates?

You might want to read up about a fella called Seán Gallagher.

[Baile Brigín 2]

Do any/many people decide their vote on TV debates?

Ask Gallagher.

I think in this instance yes. Will Connolly play the game or grandstand? Will Humphrey's lose her temper? What does Gavin stand for?

[Baile Brigín 2]

Looking at both sides of the argument, the role of President is representative.  Steen didn't meet the criteria through the Oireachtas or the Council routes, so that's fair enough.
It feels like it was skewed by the whip system, given the express instruction by Fine Gael to block nominations.  I get the logic of why would you facilitate an opponent of your own candidate,  but if these councillors could either support a candidate if they felt it reflected the views of a significant cohort of their constituency, or abstain in the event of a vote, then it would be more likely a candidate would fulfil the criteria.  It still would require the numbers, and that mathematically would prevent a ludicrous number of candidates qualifying.
The sense of injustice,  if you like, is that the mainstream parties pulled up the drawbridge behind them to virtually guarantee nobody else would be in the running.
That's as I see it, but I could be wrong, or missing some point, or just plain misinformed.

Steen would easily have gotten 4 councils. But she simply wasn't arsed going down the sticks and putting in the hard yards. She let Toibin do the running in the Oireachtas, only showing up when it was clear she was cooked. Turns out Iona don't have all that much juice

I agree 3 isn't ideal, but the majority of the independents this time were absolute vermin. The question is where were the centrist candidates that would have gotten nominations this time?

If getting councils is so easy why didn't Sheridan get their support despite courting them for a year?

I don't know where the centrist candidates where but probably they correctly identified that it was impossible to get on the ballot without the support of the 4 main Dail parties?

We still have no idea who Sheridan is. He was a random candidate.

I mean more where were the charity ceo's and known businesses types. They never struggled to get nominated before. The system hasn't changed, just the caliber of nutter was different this time

[Munchie]

Do any/many people decide their vote on TV debates?

You might want to read up about a fella called Seán Gallagher.

Nick the wab Clegg got into a coalition based on his TV debate.

[Bord na Mona man]

It was a poor debate by any standards. They spent plenty of time on Gaza for example, where a Irish President has no sway over.
It confirmed that Gavin's wooden persona when Dublin manager was not a mask for a brilliant performer behind closed doors.
Humphreys was generally safe and equally uninteresting.
Connolly probably had the best night. She managed to steer clear of her weak points, like her trip to Syria and her implied blaming of the West for the Ukraine invasion. I don't recall her using the term 'Nato' at all, which is a change of gear. She replaced this with continual use of 'Military Industrial Complex'. While it is tinfoil hat fodder, it's a quite unspecific label.

[Captain Obvious]

Jim Gavin was dreadful in that debate, what am I doing here vibes off him.

 

[AustinPowers]

Jim Gavin was dreadful in that debate, what am I doing here vibes off him.

 

I only  caught a few minutes , and in that  time , Jim Gavin nearly sent me to sleep . He is  so far  out of his depth , it's scary 

[Rossfan]

If he has a disaster vote will MM's leadership of FF become an issue?

[trileacman]

If he has a disaster vote will MM's leadership of FF become an issue?

Definitely. Given that they stepped over a 30-year FF politician to parachute in Gavin you would have to question the selection.

Kelleher was a seasoned debater and political speaker. It seems to be quite obvious that even a bog-standard MEP is better at the cut and thrust of politics than a  very high profile GAA manager and apparatchik.

[trileacman]

As I said if it was such a tactical master stroke why did it take them 2 months to realise it?

I didn't say it was a "master stroke". I merely said it was tactically the obvious decision. I also agreed that it took them a long time to announce it, but by the same token, it was only just over a week past when FF selected their candidate.

If SF are Ireland's biggest party as you claim, then it's strange they wouldn't seek to run for the office of Irish President.

"If as I claim"? Its not an opinion, it's just called counting. And no, it's not strange. Not sure how many times I have to ask this, but why would they jeopardise the alliances they will rely on at the next general election, merely for a chance to run a candidate in a nothing election?

If it's all been about lefty unity as you claim why have the Labour Party been sticking the boot into SF for not supporting Connolly from the start?

Because she suspected they were reneaging on the co-operation that the left has been showing, perhaps? I mena, is that not kinda obvious answer?

And what do you mean by "if" it's about "lefty" unity? Are you trying to claim that the left has not been forging a tighter alliance during this term of government? Because if you are going to deny that, then we're wasting our time trying to have an adult discussion. Any ideas why it might suit SF to have a united left?? I'll give you a hint....I've stated the reason repeatedly in the last few posts.

Or maybe it's that you aren't going to be brazen enough to suggest that the left haven't been forging a tighter alliance, but you were under the impression that when politcal parties with vaguely similar beliefs try to work more closely together, they aren't allowed to criticise eachother at all, which would be a very naive understanding of how politics works.

Bar supporting Connolly as president I haven't seen any evidence so far of the left working together since the election. And even at that SF had to be drag in at the 11th hour.

[Baile Brigín 2]

If he has a disaster vote will MM's leadership of FF become an issue?

Not immediately but it will start the rumblings. He has FF entirely stitched up, no factions. But parachuting in a celebrity candidate that loses will obviously cause a murmur

[Snapchap]

As I said if it was such a tactical master stroke why did it take them 2 months to realise it?

I didn't say it was a "master stroke". I merely said it was tactically the obvious decision. I also agreed that it took them a long time to announce it, but by the same token, it was only just over a week past when FF selected their candidate.

If SF are Ireland's biggest party as you claim, then it's strange they wouldn't seek to run for the office of Irish President.

"If as I claim"? Its not an opinion, it's just called counting. And no, it's not strange. Not sure how many times I have to ask this, but why would they jeopardise the alliances they will rely on at the next general election, merely for a chance to run a candidate in a nothing election?

If it's all been about lefty unity as you claim why have the Labour Party been sticking the boot into SF for not supporting Connolly from the start?

Because she suspected they were reneaging on the co-operation that the left has been showing, perhaps? I mena, is that not kinda obvious answer?

And what do you mean by "if" it's about "lefty" unity? Are you trying to claim that the left has not been forging a tighter alliance during this term of government? Because if you are going to deny that, then we're wasting our time trying to have an adult discussion. Any ideas why it might suit SF to have a united left?? I'll give you a hint....I've stated the reason repeatedly in the last few posts.

Or maybe it's that you aren't going to be brazen enough to suggest that the left haven't been forging a tighter alliance, but you were under the impression that when politcal parties with vaguely similar beliefs try to work more closely together, they aren't allowed to criticise eachother at all, which would be a very naive understanding of how politics works.

Bar supporting Connolly as president I haven't seen any evidence so far of the left working together since the election. And even at that SF had to be drag in at the 11th hour.

Really? Maybe you've forgotten the united front they presented around long running speaking rights debacle? The co-signing of motions  on issues like Gaza, on childrens assessment of needs etc. They have spoken as one on their opposition to the removal of the triple lock, appeared togher at housing rallys, had their party leaders hold joing press conferences on the Dáíl plinth. Where have you had your head buried?!

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/12/20/left-wing-parties-planning-structured-co-operation-in-dail/

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/05/17/combining-forces-opposition-plans-to-break-the-big-twos-stranglehold-on-power-begin-to-germinate/

[Rossfan]

Not into betting myself but current odds
Boylesports
HH 11/8. JG 13/8. CC 5/2.

Paddypower
HH 5/4. JG 15/8. CC 5/2.

Latest
PP
HH 6/5
CC 11/8
JG 4/1

Boylesport

HH 6/5
CC 5/4
JG 4/1

[Dag Dog]

Micheal will be out the door if Gavin flops, which is looking increasingly likely.
A lot of the party faithful will resent a parachute candidate coming...and possibly losing badly.