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Messages - APM

#46
GAA Discussion / Re: Should An Glenn object?
January 26, 2023, 02:11:55 PM
Quote from: trailer on January 26, 2023, 12:24:21 PM
Quote from: lenny on January 26, 2023, 12:14:44 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on January 26, 2023, 12:03:54 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on January 26, 2023, 10:29:24 AM
I wonder if either of these teams are back training yet. If either of them got back into training it would give them an edge for the potential replay.
I would say they are unless KC are planning on flat out refusing to play a replay or Glen are intending on not playing. Don't think either are too likely
Too much at stake to be still on the beer.

There is zero chance that either team will replay this game.

I agree. Glen are just making a point to say this was a f**k up.

It must be great to be so sure of yourself  ::)
#47
GAA Discussion / Re: Should An Glenn object?
January 25, 2023, 03:14:15 PM
Quote from: lenny on January 25, 2023, 02:52:57 PM
Quote from: Franko on January 25, 2023, 02:41:22 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on January 25, 2023, 01:29:05 PM
At no point in this will KC say they didn't have 16 players on the pitch, just forget about Mannion, it doesn't come into it all all, standing on the pitch side of the sideline is nowhere near what was going on.

The problem Glen may have is if Crokes said they followed procedure i.e sub slips and the 4th official let the ref know, but he waved it on (thinking the player had left) it will be a tough one to lose, as in forfeit, which within the overall rules they can lose it.

Croke park will have to wait for the referee's report first, they will not have seen it till after Glen put in an appeal, these things are generally posted or on occasions emailed, but I think this one will be meticulously written up.. Glen will get a copy as will KC so I'd say this is a big fecking headace now..

I really feel for the officials on that side and the ref tbh, because up to that point he'd a brilliant game, and it was a penalty  ;)


Is this procedure documented anywhere?  Where?

I understand what you say about feeling sorry for the ref... BUT

If he was informed about the transgression and didn't act, then I'm sorry, but no matter how good a game he had, this is a massive error in judgement

If he wasn't informed, then the 4th official has made the error as he should have been screaming on the radio to the ref to not restart the game

Controlling substitutions is his primary role

Assuming O'Rourke is a man of his word and he did inform the sideline official at the time, then, between them, the officials should have forced the 45 to be retaken

It would have been slightly controversial at the time, and even more so had Glen scored, but nothing to this shit storm

The rule is clear and states that there are 3 possible scenarios. One - Glen are awarded the game. 2 - A replay. 3. A fine. Based on the severity of the transgression it is clear to me the only fair solution is a fine.
Let's look at what is at stake in the final minutes of a football match.  This is where games are won and lost as Kilcoo showed against Kilmacud last year.
Let's throw the same situation into another scenario.

2017 AI Final: Dublin Mayo. May 1pt with for the last play. They have a kickout.
https://youtu.be/iYBFoI-fznE?t=6134

Dublin apply a full court press.  Every Mayo player is being tightly marked, or illegally held.

Now let us imagine, Dublin make a substitute, but substituted player stays on the pitch. It's hypothetical, but do I believe that they didn't do it on purpose - do I give the benefit of the doubt?  An honest mistake in the heat of the moment?  Blame the referee, linesman, fourth official?  Or is it the worst kind of cynicism with a £5,000 fine coming the winner's way, but no way are they going to lose that kickout?

Either way, the loosing team robbed of an opportunity to equalise.  These moments are the essence of the game.  A whole season or career distilled into those few seconds. 

There is no way a fine is the appropriate penalty, because you cannot give the benefit of the doubt in this scenario.  All you do with a fine is encourage cynicism. 
#48
GAA Discussion / Re: Should An Glenn object?
January 25, 2023, 11:35:03 AM
Moral Hazard: Lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences

That is the one compelling reason for a replay - the setting of a ridiculous precedent. 
If this is let go, then teams protecting a slender lead can sneak on an extra player to see the game out.



#49
GAA Discussion / Re: NFL Division 1 2023
January 18, 2023, 06:13:43 PM
Big year for Armagh.  Last year they had great momentum, benefiting from Dublin and Tyrone's poor form and carried an element of surprise and very good form into both games, running up big first half leads.  However, after that their form dipped quite a bit - they were poor against Monaghan, unconvincing against Kildare, beat by Mayo, Kerry and Donegal.  Hope it won't be the case, but I can see Armagh supporters biting their nails on the last day. 

I see it finishing like this. 

Mayo - McStay to get a new manager bounce
Tyrone - Bit between the teeth after a poor 2022
Galway - Expect them to continue from where they left off last year
Kerry - Might take them a while to get going
Armagh - Despite good performances last year, they were still inconsistent overall; don't see that changing and likely to drop important points
Monaghan - Corey to get a bit of a bounce - will take a few scalps
Roscommon - Will be surprised if they stay up given their history of yo-yoing
Donegal - Look like a team entering transition and losing momentum
#50
GAA Discussion / Re: NFL Division 1 2023
January 17, 2023, 05:09:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 17, 2023, 12:22:13 PM
Monaghan are in Division One longer than every team in Ireland apart from  Kerry. The hoors got Galway relegated in 2021 via a playoff.

Did I read somewhere that in the second-half of the last game of the league for each of the last three years, Monaghan have been relegated on paper, before pulling it out of the bag before the final whistle. 

Corey's big problem is that a number of his go-to men are well on the wrong side of 30. But I can see them getting a bit of a bounce from a new manager, and I wouldn't bet against them against Armagh in Blaney in the first game. 
#51
GAA Discussion / Re: McKenna Cup 2023
January 11, 2023, 05:20:48 PM
Can you post a link Itchy, they haven't got it listed online
#52
GAA Discussion / Re: McKenna Cup 2023
January 11, 2023, 04:41:16 PM
Does anyone know is the Armagh - Cavan match streaming anywhere online?
#53
General discussion / Re: The next recession
August 05, 2022, 01:17:50 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on August 05, 2022, 01:01:07 PM
I'm no economist, but the current rise in inflation, is it not being driven by supply chain issues (Brexit/Russian Oil/Gas) and Corporate greed rather than too much spending and not enough demand?

Raising the interest rates will have a huge impact on those with mortgages and may already feel squeezed by the prices of everything else going up and could lead to a lot of defaulting!

I struggle to see how that is going to reduce inflation.

Supply chains are part of the issue.

Another big factor is QE:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing

#54
General discussion / Re: The next recession
August 05, 2022, 10:52:36 AM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on August 05, 2022, 10:32:27 AM
Quote from: APM on August 05, 2022, 10:27:22 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on August 04, 2022, 07:16:14 PM
The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed.

2.3%
The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell back to its record low in the first quarter of this year, official figures suggest. The rate in the period January to March was 2.3%, a statistically significant fall of 1.2 percentage points over the year.

I'd have thought unemployment has fallen in most places? There are loads of jobs available

Unemployment is very low.  We are almost at full-employment and in general, have been for the last few years and businesses across Western Europe and the West in general have been struggling with labour shortages, even before Covid.  Economies have been over-heating for some time and inflation has been building in the background as a result.  Don't think this is going to be pretty.   
#55
General discussion / Re: The next recession
August 05, 2022, 10:27:22 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on August 04, 2022, 07:16:14 PM
The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed. 
#56
General discussion / Re: Boris Johnson
August 01, 2022, 09:50:30 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 01, 2022, 07:51:01 PM
Quote from: APM on August 01, 2022, 07:22:20 PM
A Labour government has to get elected first.  You are right about Corbyn not being a radical.  Some of his policies were centrist.  However, Crorbyn had some policies that left him open ongoing attack from the press.  It wasn't just the rich that didn't accept his policies. Not enough people accepted his policies to get him elected and until Labour have a pragmatic leader in the mould of Blair, with the support of the party, who is prepared to compromise some principles to get elected so that other more critical policies can be advanced, Labour are going nowhere. 

The primary purpose of a political party is to get elected and drive change.  Too many Labour activists think they should be like the Greens - better out of power lobbying, than in power, taking responsibility.
The Labour performance was reasonable other than in the so-called Red Wall where the Tories won 40 seats from Labour for a majority of 80.
They won those seats because they focused on nationalism. They may lose them in the next election.
If Starmer wins, nothing will change. It'll be the same as FF in 2008 or Labour in 2011 or Greens now. Then the Lefties will get a turn. The analysis is still valid.

Even if they won the red wall seats they were still on a hiding to nothing.  There may be an element that with Scotland gone to SNP, Labour activists may be encouraged to put principle before success, because they probably feel that they will win nothing anyway, even with the red wall.   But Labour will not win an election unless they win over middle of the road voters and the English press will see to it that this won't happen with a left winger in charge.  Blair recognised this and secured the support of the Murdoch press, unsavoury as that may seem.  Unless there is a significant change in terms of UK press ownership / regulation etc, the only Labour leader I can see getting in will be a centrist.  Labour have a responsibility to see that this happens, because the Tories will do a lot of damage if they retain unfettered power. 
#57
General discussion / Re: Boris Johnson
August 01, 2022, 07:22:20 PM
A Labour government has to get elected first.  You are right about Corbyn not being a radical.  Some of his policies were centrist.  However, Crorbyn had some policies that left him open ongoing attack from the press.  It wasn't just the rich that didn't accept his policies. Not enough people accepted his policies to get him elected and until Labour have a pragmatic leader in the mould of Blair, with the support of the party, who is prepared to compromise some principles to get elected so that other more critical policies can be advanced, Labour are going nowhere. 

The primary purpose of a political party is to get elected and drive change.  Too many Labour activists think they should be like the Greens - better out of power lobbying, than in power, taking responsibility. 


#58
General discussion / Re: Boris Johnson
August 01, 2022, 04:49:25 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 01, 2022, 04:36:52 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on August 01, 2022, 04:33:19 PM
I am not convinced Starmer will be there in 2 years.
He is purging a lot of lefties. On the other hand how will they get lefties to vote Labour ?

Labour had to do this under Kinnock.  Appeasing the hard left will not get them elected - a lot of the Labour party activists it seems would be content to have their principles even if it mean permanent opposition to an increasingly strident and extremist Tory party.  It still took another 10 years after the 1987 General Election before Labour got in again. 

#59
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
July 02, 2022, 01:42:35 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 02, 2022, 12:37:42 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on July 02, 2022, 10:57:14 AM
Yeah he will miss a game with much less significance. You would imagine it's PR tbh.(not a dig at Armagh - anyone in their position would do it)

I think Armagh did the right thing. However, it would be odd if the first league game was Armagh v Galway and Kelly played while Nugent did not

To be fair, Sean Kelly wouldn't miss the first game of the league anyway.  So Kelly could serve his suspension and play the first game of the league. 

Considering the broader issue of Armagh's involvement in these rows:
I think the county board need to be having a word with McGeeney & the players on this stuff. Not just because we're developing a reputation. There may be a time & place for this kind of thing in the development of a team (albeit in general it's not good, is it?).  However, we have got involved at the wrong time and wrong place where it done way more harm than good, getting involved in this crap. 

The only one where I would have any sympathy was in the Tyrone match, where Tyrone (and one player in particular) was the clear instigator and it suited Armagh to see the game out. 

Both melees against Donegal and Galway were particularly brainless and ultimately suited the opposition. 
#60
GAA Discussion / Re: Armagh v Galway AIQF
June 29, 2022, 11:35:52 AM
How many penalties have Armagh missed in the last few years.  I would be surprised if we score any more than half the penalties we win.

From a quick search:
Rian O'Neill, Monaghan, 2022 NFL
Stefan Campbell missing v Tyrone, 2021 NFL
Jamie Clarke, Monaghan 2014, Louth 2015
Rory Grugan, Roscommon Qualifiers, 2018