Ladbrooks
Kerry 2/1
Tyrone 4/1
Dublin 11/2
Armagh 10/1
Mayo 10/1
Galway 14/1
Donegal 16/1
Cork 25/1
Laois 25/1
Derry 33/1
Meath 50/1
Paddy Powers
Kerry 2 - 1
Tyrone 4 - 1
Dublin 11 - 2
Mayo 10 - 1
Donegal 11 - 1
Armagh 14 - 1
Cork 18 - 1
Galway 18 - 1
Laois 20 - 1
Derry 28 - 1
Meath 50 - 1
Boylesports
Kerry 2/1
Tyrone 4/1
Dublin 11/2
Armagh 10/1
Mayo 12/1
Donegal 14/1
Galway 20/1
Cork 20/1
Laois 28/1
Derry 40/1
Meath 40/1
Louth 66/1
armagh are good odds at 14/1 at paddypower
get some punts on them
Don't think Galway or Cork should be ahead of Laois...time will tell i suppose
It does show if you for instance fancied Derry to pull of a miracle and Win Sam there is a giant difference between the likes of 33-1, 28-1 & 40-1
But far more realisticaly
Galway, Donegal & Armagh have significant enough variations
Galway 14-1, 18-1 & 20-1
Donegal 16-1, 11-1, 14-1
Armagh 10-1, 14-1, 10-1
Even my beloved Mayo
10-1, 10-1, 12-1
Dubs are far to low odds to be worth the significant risk, and it is only based on relative popuation and associated bets that they are anything better than the 14-1 I would have them at if I where to making up the odds on teams actuall ability.
Tyrone & Kerry who in my opinion look like the destination of Sam in '07 are steady across the 3 mentioned bookmakers.
You never get goods odds for Dublin and Kerry, bet each way on the other main contenders of your choice at the best odds available and you would do OK. Galwegians will get 25/1 on Betfair.
And Mayo should have a chance.
Mayo would get my money if i fancied a flutter, never like going for favourites. :)
Quote from: Fishead_Sam on April 09, 2007, 10:06:37 PM
Tyrone & Kerry who in my opinion look like the destination of Sam in '07 are steady across the 3 mentioned bookmakers.
Just how do Tyrone look like a destination for Sam in 07???
Mayo will be a good bet - Cork could also be a strong bet once Canty comes back....especially if Cussen shows an improvement as no team will kick a good score against them....
Quote from: DUBSFORSAM1 on April 10, 2007, 12:35:45 AM
Just how do Tyrone look like a destination for Sam in 07???
Perhaps in the same way we looked like a good bet for Sam in 2005... after getting beaten well by Kerry in the last game of the League, and getting beaten by Wexford in the League semi-finals! We've won 2 of the last four, and only Kerry has equalled that. You really should lose that chip.
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on April 10, 2007, 08:25:00 AM
Quote from: DUBSFORSAM1 on April 10, 2007, 12:35:45 AM
Just how do Tyrone look like a destination for Sam in 07???
Perhaps in the same way we looked like a good bet for Sam in 2005... after getting beaten well by Kerry in the last game of the League, and getting beaten by Wexford in the League semi-finals! We've won 2 of the last four, and only Kerry has equalled that. You really should lose that chip.
There is no chip at all.....
Tyrone have shown no form in last 12 -18 months to be seen as a destination for this years All-Ireland...
They have lost players since then through retirement, others have been permantly injured and others have lost form..
If Cavanagh, Mcguigan, Gormley, McMahon, Mulligan, O'Neill, Dooher etc are all fully fit and playing to their best it is possible - but when has this last happened and McGuigan could be a good while away from being in top form...
I certainly wont be ruling the feckers out >:(
Quote from: DUBSFORSAM1 on April 10, 2007, 11:10:09 AM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on April 10, 2007, 08:25:00 AM
Quote from: DUBSFORSAM1 on April 10, 2007, 12:35:45 AM
Just how do Tyrone look like a destination for Sam in 07???
Perhaps in the same way we looked like a good bet for Sam in 2005... after getting beaten well by Kerry in the last game of the League, and getting beaten by Wexford in the League semi-finals! We've won 2 of the last four, and only Kerry has equalled that. You really should lose that chip.
There is no chip at all.....
Tyrone have shown no form in last 12 -18 months to be seen as a destination for this years All-Ireland...
They have lost players since then through retirement, others have been permantly injured and others have lost form..
If Cavanagh, Mcguigan, Gormley, McMahon, Mulligan, O'Neill, Dooher etc are all fully fit and playing to their best it is possible - but when has this last happened and McGuigan could be a good while away from being in top form...
We should have the vast majority of the recent AI winners available, with the obvious notable exceptions, and I'd hope all of the 2005 winners with the one obvious exception, and with the addition of a few of the U21s -- I think that that's where the bookies are coming from. There's a good period now to get fully fixed, focused and fit.
In 2005 we showed no real form in the previous 12-18 months either, but that's only when it started, and I think we have shown in patches in 2007, only in patches, that there's still something there.
It will suit of course, that we're written off so completely, so I shouldn't be complaining ;)
Top 10 team rankings.
1. Kerry
2. Tyrone ( the team best equiped to beat Kerry, but need to hit some form )
3. Dublin ( home advantage is a big help, would be further down only for it )
4. Mayo
5. Donegal ( form team in Ireland and with a strong panel now )
6. Armagh ( on the slide )
7. Cork ( still short of class up front )
8. Laois ( potential never going to be fulfilled )
9. Derry ( same as laois )
10. Galway
Quote from: Jack Dempsey on April 10, 2007, 11:38:52 AM
3. Dublin ( home advantage is a big help, would be further down only for it )
Didnt realise we were scheduled for Parnell Park this summer ::)
Dublin are 11/2 purely because of the population, therefore the amount of people likely to back them is much higher, therefore a greater risk to the bookie.
I would say 12 or 14/1 would be more realistic.
Although Tyrone have shown little or no form this year IMO this will change come the summer & the dry sod. Once they get their full compliment back they will be one hard bunch of bast***s to beat
Kerry - always there or thereabouts at the business end of the season-this year will be no different
Dublin - constantly over-hyped & always seem to sh1t in the nest-ditto
Donegal - at the moment playing the best football in the country, but can they take this form into the championship? Probably a year too early for them
Mayo - playing super football, if they can forget last year's joke they will be right there at the end
Armagh - relying too much on too few players, father time has caught up with them
Of the rest of the country only Cork have any sort of chance of breaking through-providing they can get some help up front for Master's.IMHO
I agree re Mayo, people seem to be a bit too quick to write them off after last years final.
I think they will be close again this year.
"I agree re Mayo, people seem to be a bit too quick to write them off after last years final.
I think they will be close again this year."
And the main difference this year is that they have a manager who has no fear of the big occasion and will be able to settle players' heads if the big day comes about.
To be honest I think the bookies have it about right. The top 2 teams in the betting are the 2 sides best equipped to win an All Ireland, in my opinion. Hard to see any team beating both of them to win an All Ireland although of course they mightn't have to. I'd accept that it looks as though Armagh's best days might be behind them, I'd still be hopeful there might be a last sting in the tale if our injury list gets smaller and soem of the u21s adapt well to championship football quickly.
Quote from: dubnut on April 10, 2007, 11:43:40 AM
Quote from: Jack Dempsey on April 10, 2007, 11:38:52 AM
3. Dublin ( home advantage is a big help, would be further down only for it )
Didnt realise we were scheduled for Parnell Park this summer ::)
Dublin are 11/2 purely because of the population, therefore the amount of people likely to back them is much higher, therefore a greater risk to the bookie.
I would say 12 or 14/1 would be more realistic.
Lots of people in Antrim and they are quiet a big price. Do you have a Betfair account. If so I'll take some say 11/1 Dublin for sam.
Quote from: Jack Dempsey on April 10, 2007, 12:39:45 PM
Lots of people in Antrim and they are quiet a big price. Do you have a Betfair account. If so I'll take some say 11/1 Dublin for sam.
Thats cause the bookies know Antrim havent a hope in hell.
Dublin could possibly win it, it would be a surprise but if they won at 11-1 the bookies would suffer huge losses.
Home advantage isnt a factor as they dont play in their home ground.
Mayo represent best value, great odds.
Kerry are the team to beat, bit of a blow with Eamon Fitzmaurice retiring today, following Moynihan and Mike McCarthy. Defensive options could be gettin scarce.
Tyrones form is very worrying for supporters, while personally i feel Armagh are finished. Dublin still a bit windy IMO.
Donegal and Mayo look the part.
Mayo Senior and u21 double..what odds on that?
belleaqua: We reckon we could get the ladies in aswell, so a triple for Mayo is as likely when it comes to win as winning Mayo, you know Mayo expect them to win 3 and they will probably go out after 2 matches, right them off and they might win everything. Predictable and Mayo only go together in September
Quote from: dubnut on April 10, 2007, 12:44:57 PM
Quote from: Jack Dempsey on April 10, 2007, 12:39:45 PM
Lots of people in Antrim and they are quiet a big price. Do you have a Betfair account. If so I'll take some say 11/1 Dublin for sam.
Thats cause the bookies know Antrim havent a hope in hell.
Dublin could possibly win it, it would be a surprise but if they won at 11-1 the bookies would suffer huge losses.
Home advantage isnt a factor as they dont play in their home ground.
So when Kerry play in Tralee they dont have home advantage, you are having a laugh. Everyman and his dog knows Dublin have a huge advantage when playing in Croke Park. The sidestep of my other query was expected.
Quote from: Jack Dempsey on April 10, 2007, 01:18:26 PM
[The sidestep of my other query was expected.
If you are referring to Betfair, no I dont have an account, thats why I "sidestepped" the query ::)
I dont know how many times on this site Dubs were pounced on by non Dubs for suggesting Croke Park is their home ground.
Ye cant have it both ways!
p.s. I never said Kerry dont have home advantage when playing in Tralee, no sure what thats got to do with Croke Park.
Quote from: dubnut on April 10, 2007, 01:25:27 PM
Quote from: Jack Dempsey on April 10, 2007, 01:18:26 PM
[The sidestep of my other query was expected.
p.s. I never said Kerry dont have home advantage when playing in Tralee,
I do know that you didnt say that
But you suggested I did
"So when Kerry play in Tralee they dont have home advantage, you are having a laugh"
;)
QuoteKerry are the team to beat, bit of a blow with Eamon Fitzmaurice retiring today, following Moynihan and Mike McCarthy. Defensive options could be gettin scarce.
No point start a new thread but best wishes to Eamon Fitzmaurice on his retirement. Has been a loyal servant for nearly 10 years and gave his all for the Kingdom. His finest hour came in the 2004 final when he had Ciaran McDonald in his hold for most of the game.
He has been off the pace however over the last few years and was never going to get a starting place come championship time. He was a player who seems to carry alot of weight during the winter.
He was a solid defender and in latter years was tried to limited success as a centre forward.
From a panel point of view I think we are in good shape in the backs as we now have Padraig Reidy, Daniel Bohane, Mossy Lyons, Brendan Guiney, Ronan O'Flaherta and Killian Young when he returns from injury, vying for the numbers 4 and 7 jerseys. I am assuming the 2 O'Se brothers will man the other side with the 2 Gardai from Rathmore controlling the centre.
Anyway fair play to Eamon Fitzmaurice for his Kerry years, 3 AI medals in the pocket, you cant ask for more than that from any man.
If the league is any barometer with a number of new and returning faces now at the top table, it could be one of the most open championships in years.
Dublin, as always seems to happen them after the trampoline effect of a new manager in his first year, have tapered off a little of late. They'll improve and be thereabouts come summer again but Wexford, Longford, Louth, Kildare and especially Laois will all push hard for a Leinster title. Perversely the qualifier route might harden Dublin up a little and serve them better if they go that way, but you'd reasonably expect a more consistent team in the third year of Caffrey's reign but instead they look to be still in a degree of flux/uncertainty.
Teams like Donegal (if they get the ship back on course in the next few weeks after their latest outburst of drinking and indiscipline) and Mayo look well placed, along with Laois, to step up from the second tier of contenders as IMO Kerry will really struggle when Darragh tires at midfield and already they have problems at centre and fullback that might not be adequately plugged come summer.
Cork have enough to progress a fair bit as well but are ultimately short of the forwards required to win big.
Tyrone have their problems in the camp and frankly I don't fancy them. Not that I'd be surprised if they got their ducks in a row but I just can't see it this year. Themselves and Armagh are suffering from listening to the same manager for too long IMHO.
My money is on a winner from outside the established elite of the past 5/6 years. It's going to be an interesting year.
Quote from: Jack Dempsey on April 10, 2007, 12:39:45 PM
Lots of people in Antrim and they are quiet a big price.
To be honest, a lot of them wouldn't have Gaelic Games in their blood.
QuoteThemselves and Armagh are suffering from listening to the same manager for too long IMHO.
Perhaps Armagh and Tyrone should do a celebrity manager swap, Setanta could pay for the TV rights.
QuoteTo be honest, a lot of them wouldn't have Gaelic Games in their blood.
and they know the value of money, so aren't likely to bet on Antrim to win the AI, whatever odds there are!
Quote from: armaghniac on April 10, 2007, 03:15:27 PM
QuoteThemselves and Armagh are suffering from listening to the same manager for too long IMHO.
Perhaps Armagh and Tyrone should do a celebrity manager swap, Setanta could pay for the TV rights.
Wouldn't be much point if they're not involved at the business end. I seriously think both sides no longer have the edge required for winning big honours. They'll beat most but flounder against the very best although Tyrone have more scope to recover than Armagh. But that's just my opinion.
Quote from: cavanmaniac on April 10, 2007, 02:58:10 PM
Teams like Donegal (if they get the ship back on course in the next few weeks after their latest outburst of drinking and indiscipline)
I know there were rumours prior to the Limerick game, but have I missed something else?
Or is this a prediction of what is likely to happen if we do manage to win the league? :P
I would have thought that what happened to Eamon McGee and Kevin Cassidy this time last year would finally put a stop to any carry on in the Donegal camp, especially given that any player who loses his place this year is going to have a very tough time winning it back.
At this stage though, it seems that any poor performance by Donegal automatically leads to rumours of drinking and indiscipline.
I think everybody would agree that if Tyrone were to have everybody back fit for the Summer (especially McGuigan) then they would deserve to be 2nd favourites behind Kerry and would have a fair good chance of going all the way. The uncertainty about injuries is the problem at the minute - but the bookies are taking no chances and have them in 2nd place on their list because they are a proven side. I'm quietly confident that this break (I think its 7 weeks) will refresh the team and we'll see a strong Tyrone again come the Summer and I expect them to be in the running. Anybody who thinks they won't have the hunger or motivation is underestimating MH.
No need to justify Kerry's position at the top of the list. It's their right to be there!
Dublin probably deserve to be 3rd favourites but can they take that next big step? Nobody seems to know.
Outside the top 3, the value bets for me are Donegal, Mayo, Armagh and Derry. All four are good enough to beat anybody on their day.
I still wouldn't write off Armagh; Donegal are well capable under McIvor if they can stay focussed; Mayo are going to be mentally stronger under JOM and Derry are overpriced by the bookies.
Cork haven't enough quality up front to go all the way and Laois and Galway could beat anybody but might struggle to put a string of wins together.
It's looking like an interesting Championship.
Have to agree what you say about Laois Closetotheharte we are capable of beating anyone but our problem in the last few years is putting a string of good matches together
Came close last year by beating Tyrone,Offaly and Meath and then fecked it up when we had Mayo beaten only to throw it away
Hoping this year will be different :-\
Quote from: The Real Laoislad on April 10, 2007, 11:06:25 PM
Have to agree what you say about Laois Closetotheharte we are capable of beating anyone but our problem in the last few years is putting a string of good matches together
Came close last year by beating Tyrone,Offaly and Meath and then fecked it up when we had Mayo beaten only to throw it away
Hoping this year will be different :-\
I actually had a sneaky feeling for Laois after they'd beaten Tyrone last year because I was impressed by their all round effort in that game but I felt let down by them when they threw it away against Mayo. If they'd been able to apply themselves in every game like they did against Tyrone they'd have been very hard to beat.
Quote from: J70 on April 10, 2007, 06:48:27 PM
Quote from: cavanmaniac on April 10, 2007, 02:58:10 PM
Teams like Donegal (if they get the ship back on course in the next few weeks after their latest outburst of drinking and indiscipline)
I know there were rumours prior to the Limerick game, but have I missed something else?
Or is this a prediction of what is likely to happen if we do manage to win the league? :P
I would have thought that what happened to Eamon McGee and Kevin Cassidy this time last year would finally put a stop to any carry on in the Donegal camp, especially given that any player who loses his place this year is going to have a very tough time winning it back.
At this stage though, it seems that any poor performance by Donegal automatically leads to rumours of drinking and indiscipline.
It was before the Limerick game yes relations in Donegal who are well connected tell me it was definitely more than just rumours. Look through recent Donegal team sheets, note the absences, do the math and you have the culprits. A damn shame but if they have their annual 'incident' out of the way this early and get things back on track soon, they have serious potential now that they've discovered that on a football pitch their feet aren't just for running on.
Quote from: The Real Laoislad on April 10, 2007, 11:06:25 PM
Have to agree what you say about Laois Closetotheharte we are capable of beating anyone but our problem in the last few years is putting a string of good matches together
Came close last year by beating Tyrone,Offaly and Meath and then fecked it up when we had Mayo beaten only to throw it away
Hoping this year will be different :-\
Laois are not capable of beating Kerry
Anybody else feel that Armagh are more likely to finish up there if they go through the back door, I think that on the balance of probablilities consistently hard games will be draining on the older cohorts, whereas a change may be good for the team spiirit
Quote from: cavanmaniac on April 11, 2007, 12:30:35 PM
Quote from: J70 on April 10, 2007, 06:48:27 PM
Quote from: cavanmaniac on April 10, 2007, 02:58:10 PM
Teams like Donegal (if they get the ship back on course in the next few weeks after their latest outburst of drinking and indiscipline)
I know there were rumours prior to the Limerick game, but have I missed something else?
Or is this a prediction of what is likely to happen if we do manage to win the league? :P
I would have thought that what happened to Eamon McGee and Kevin Cassidy this time last year would finally put a stop to any carry on in the Donegal camp, especially given that any player who loses his place this year is going to have a very tough time winning it back.
At this stage though, it seems that any poor performance by Donegal automatically leads to rumours of drinking and indiscipline.
It was before the Limerick game yes relations in Donegal who are well connected tell me it was definitely more than just rumours. Look through recent Donegal team sheets, note the absences, do the math and you have the culprits. A damn shame but if they have their annual 'incident' out of the way this early and get things back on track soon, they have serious potential now that they've discovered that on a football pitch their feet aren't just for running on.
changes in team sheets were due to the fact the had basically qualified allready
You could look at it that way if you wanted, it's certainly convenient! All's I know is that I have it on pretty good authority, so believe what you will! Either way, I hope they're at full tilt come championship, will make it very interesting.
Armagh 5/1 for Ulster on PP. Good odds.
17/01/2007
Paddy Powers
Kerry 2 - 1
Tyrone 9 - 2
Dublin 11 - 2
Mayo 15 - 2
Donegal 11 - 1
Armagh 14 - 1
Galway 16 - 1
Cork 18 - 1
Laois 25 - 1
Derry 28 - 1
Meath 66 - 1
Ladbrooks
Kerry 9/4
Tyrone 4/1
Dublin 6/1
Mayo 7/1
Armagh 10/1
Galway 12/1
Donegal 14/1
Cork 25/1
Laois 25/1
Derry 33/1
Meath 50/1
Kildare 80/1
Boylesports
Kerry 11/5
Tyrone 9/2
Dublin 11/2
Armagh 11/1
Donegal 11/1
Mayo 11/1
Galway 20/1
Cork 20/1
Laois 28/1
Derry 40/1
Meath 40/1
Louth 66/1
Dont rule out Down, when least expected they deliver like no other county can.
So Powers are still 14/1 armagh. Obviously no confidence in the county
Jack D. I would pay no head to odds not being alterted on any of the main contendors other than Mayo, Donegal, Galway & perhaps Kildare, other than a major player becomig injured, or you find the next big thing at underage and he has joined the senior panel. Joe Kernian retiring/sacked or Tyrone/Donegal being thrown out of the Ulster Championship Armaghs odds cant really go up or down if they haven'treally played since the last posting.
eh Money
2/1 is a savage low price for Kerry, after a poor enough league and after a winter of double champions celebrations and holidays, we will find it hard to muster the hunger for another big assault on Sam, add in missing Seamus Moynihan, Mike McCarthy and Eamon Fitzmaurice, a possible burn out of the Dr Crokes players, and the aging Darragh O'Se and Mike Frank Russell, I cant see us winning this year. 2-in-a-row would be great but I cant see it happening.
Cork for SAM in 07, you heard it here first,
17/01/2007
Paddy Powers Fishead_Sams reckoning
Kerry 2 - 1 Slightly to low odds (3-1)
Tyrone 9 - 2 About right (9-2) = 4 & half - 1
Dublin 11 - 2 Too Low (12-1)
Mayo 15 - 2 Too Low (18-2) = 9 & half - 1
Donegal 11 - 1 Too High (18-2) = 9 & half - 1
Armagh 14 - 1 About right (14-1)
Galway 16 - 1 About right (14-1)
Slightly more realistic!!!
These odds are a bit more generous.
http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/gaelic-games/gaelic-football/all-ireland-senior-football-championship-2007/win-market
A bit more advice for you fish head.
Have a look at this link
http://www.skybet.com/skybet?offer=20&aff=221
register your details and lodge 30 euro. Put your money on Mayo at 14/1. Then claim your free bet. Throw that on Mayo as well. When they win the a/i you are now 870 euro up for your 30 euro bet. odds of 28/1. Easy as that. Just the slight matter of the footballers doing the biz.
Whart odds for Derry ? Surely they could be worth a wee bet at say 20/1 and that would be a bit of value.