Famously said about Shergar after romping home in the Sandown Classic Trial when he was still available at 8/1 for the Derby.
Now I'm saying it about Donegal to win Sam, available at 7/1 on exchanges and 6/1 with bookmakers.
This is a stupid drift in price.
Once they beat Kerry, which they will, and come up against a Cork side hurting after a bruising encounter with Geezer's men, Donegal will be at least half the price. They beat Cork, they win the final. Cork and Donegal are the two best teams in Ireland this year, no doubt.
Donegal brutalized us in Clones without playing above 50%. Granted we went gung-ho too early, but it was still scary how easily they disposed of us. Admittedly we're hardly the best side in Ireland but equally we're nowhere near the worst.
Donegal are a nasty, dirty, smart, cynical, tactically great, mostly negative side. In truth, I can't stand them. I'd almost support Armagh against them. I think they, along with the rule-makers, are doing their utmost to ruin the sport. But they will take some beating.
Kerry won't be up for the arm-wrestle. They've won their big game this year in beating a Tyrone side in transition at home. Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003. Watch how they'll handle Donaghy.
Cork is the one to worry about as they are a superb side and can match Donegal in the power running rugby league game McGuinness likes to play. Get past them and they'll probably play the Dubs, who simply haven't been as good this year as they were last, while Donegal have improved. The Dubs have won their AI, Donegal haven't. Hunger will be what separates them.
Even if Kerry do them by a point, I won't regret this bet. It's value. Get on.
8)
I came to the same conclusion and I'm on at 8.2.
18/1 ;)
Very good, Haranguerer. You can trade some of it at about 7/2, I'd say, after they beat Kerry.
Congratulations to all who are on at better odds, but I'd have to say Donegal at 6/1 don't jump out at me when they're possibly looking down the barrell of Kerry,Cork and Dublin on the road to winning an All-Ireland! When I saw the title of the topic, I thought the subject was going to be the Dubs,if they really have anything in them, back to back All-Irelands have really opened up at just about the most opportune time!!!!!
The 6/1 is no value. They will in all likelihood have to beat Kerry, Cork & Dublin and I'm guessing there respective odds in each of those 3 matches will be 5/4 (actual), 11/10 and evens which would equate to 8.5/1. If you fancy them to win all 3 its best to take this approach imo. If like me you fancy the superior footballers to come out on top on Sunday, ie Kerry, you will not back them. If Donegal defy logic and win it, this will be a major victory for systems over players and will give hope to every underdog that if they set up a defensive system and stick military like to a gameplan that anything is possible.
Quote from: yellowcard on August 01, 2012, 11:43:28 AM
The 6/1 is no value. They will in all likelihood have to beat Kerry, Cork & Dublin and I'm guessing there respective odds in each of those 3 matches will be 5/4 (actual), 11/10 and evens which would equate to 8.5/1. If you fancy them to win all 3 its best to take this approach imo. If like me you fancy the superior footballers to come out on top on Sunday, ie Kerry, you will not back them. If Donegal defy logic and win it, this will be a major victory for systems over players and will give hope to every underdog that if they set up a defensive system and stick military like to a gameplan that anything is possible.
Totally agree. Worse case scenario (odds related) they will face Kerry Kildare and Mayo.
In that case they would be approx 5/4 10/11 and 4/5 to win each game
Thats still giving you close to 7/1 if you rolled over each winnings. Backing Donegal at 6/1 is crazy stuff and is a bookies dream.
Can't understand this Donegal bandwagon at all.
Kerry had the All-Ireland won with seven minutes to go and have lost one player from that team. They topped Division One of the league and are in serious form.
Donegal have achieved the precise total of fcuk all.
This reminds me of 2009 when Dublin were odds-on faves to beat Kerry in the quarters. I lumped on €200 on the Kingdom and my bet was safe after 42 seconds.
Kerry might not win by 17 points on Sunday, but I'd be shocked if they didn't win.
Kerry by five for me.
Quote from: Collins on July 28, 2012, 10:00:19 PM
Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003.
Donegal aren't as good as Tyrone 2003. That Tyrone side had won two All-Ireland minor and two All-Ireland U21 titles in the five years previous. Donegal have one Ulster U21 title in the past five years.
Are McFadden and Murphy fully fit?
If they are, and can stay that way, I'd give Donegal a great chance.
There was more juice in Frankel's price yesterday than there is in Donegal's price for the All-Ireland. Once you get to the last 8 any value in the outright winner market tends to be gone. It's hard to see any back-to-lay team at this stage this year either.
If you do really fancy a team to win the All-Ireland at this stage it is probably better to back a few of their main men coupled to win the POTY award at fancier prices.
Quote from: Ohtoohtobe on August 02, 2012, 02:15:59 PM
Quote from: Collins on July 28, 2012, 10:00:19 PM
Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003.
Donegal aren't as good as Tyrone 2003. That Tyrone side had won two All-Ireland minor and two All-Ireland U21 titles in the five years previous. Donegal have one Ulster U21 title in the past five years.
Donegal should have won U21 All Ireland title in 2010 Murphy's missed penalty cost them however it's true Donegal aren't as good either are Kerry 2012 as good as Kerry in 2003.
Thats very lazy analysis to say if donegal win its a victory for system, bad for football etc. Its also a loada shite.
Last year donegal were very defensive, the problem most people had was that one of the best forwards in the game was playing out round the middle the whole time. Donegal are a different animal this year. I've no idea of the stats, but I'd say their defenders have scored more than anyone elses, corner backs banging in goals, and lacey scoring flat out. Its all action, not just defence. Its true ulster is on a dip, but it strikes me that donegal have by and large, particularly v tyrone, only done what they had to do.
You can say kerry had the ai won with 7 min to go, and thats true, but a donegal side that has come on leaps and bounds since last year should have beaten the eventual ai champions, so what of either of those statistics?
Lastly, in terms of betting, if donegal beat kerry, and cork struggled or were beaten by kildare (and I'll be betting on the kildare handicap [which in fairness is prob as good a reason as any to back cork], I don think you'd get 5/4 on dgal in the semi, nor will you get 5/4 on any team which comes out of this side of the draw, esp if dublin splutter a bit or are beaten. I dont care anyway, I've 18s, just saying :P
DHs idea strikes me as a good one though
Quote from: Captain Obvious on August 02, 2012, 09:37:12 PM
Quote from: Ohtoohtobe on August 02, 2012, 02:15:59 PM
Quote from: Collins on July 28, 2012, 10:00:19 PM
Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003.
Donegal aren't as good as Tyrone 2003. That Tyrone side had won two All-Ireland minor and two All-Ireland U21 titles in the five years previous. Donegal have one Ulster U21 title in the past five years.
Donegal should have won U21 All Ireland title in 2010 Murphy's missed penalty cost them however it's true Donegal aren't as good either are Kerry 2012 as good as Kerry in 2003.
Donegal have a midfield however, Tyrone never had, and I feel Kerry have got away with theirs this last while
Kerry although on the slide, will still have too much for Donegal, game will be tight due to the way Donegal set up, but most of the best footballers will be wearing green and gold. its a matter if the hunger is there for it any more!! they were very poor up to the Tyrone game, so what Kerry turns up will decide the game, Donegal have been very good all year so i expect the same again from them.
Quote from: haranguerer on August 02, 2012, 09:51:10 PM
DHs idea strikes me as a good one though
;)
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on August 02, 2012, 10:36:18 PM
Kerry although on the slide, will still have too much for Donegal, game will be tight due to the way Donegal set up, but most of the best footballers will be wearing green and gold.
Will Kerry not be wearing the royal blue of Munster?
Quote from: Donnellys Hollow on August 02, 2012, 10:44:08 PM
Quote from: haranguerer on August 02, 2012, 09:51:10 PM
DHs idea strikes me as a good one though
;)
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on August 02, 2012, 10:36:18 PM
Kerry although on the slide, will still have too much for Donegal, game will be tight due to the way Donegal set up, but most of the best footballers will be wearing green and gold.
Will Kerry not be wearing the royal blue of Munster?
They are indeed.
Quote from: haranguerer on August 02, 2012, 09:51:10 PM
Thats very lazy analysis to say if donegal win its a victory for system, bad for football etc. Its also a loada shite.
Last year donegal were very defensive, the problem most people had was that one of the best forwards in the game was playing out round the middle the whole time. Donegal are a different animal this year. I've no idea of the stats, but I'd say their defenders have scored more than anyone elses, corner backs banging in goals, and lacey scoring flat out. Its all action, not just defence. Its true ulster is on a dip, but it strikes me that donegal have by and large, particularly v tyrone, only done what they had to do.
You can say kerry had the ai won with 7 min to go, and thats true, but a donegal side that has come on leaps and bounds since last year should have beaten the eventual ai champions, so what of either of those statistics?
Lastly, in terms of betting, if donegal beat kerry, and cork struggled or were beaten by kildare (and I'll be betting on the kildare handicap [which in fairness is prob as good a reason as any to back cork], I don think you'd get 5/4 on dgal in the semi, nor will you get 5/4 on any team which comes out of this side of the draw, esp if dublin splutter a bit or are beaten. I dont care anyway, I've 18s, just saying :P
DHs idea strikes me as a good one though
Fair enough, thats your opinion but I don't think anyone could make an argument that Donegal have the best players in the country. In fact if they did win it the single biggest reason would undoubtedly be Jim McGuinness with his groundbreaking preparations and systems and not the players. Personally I think it would be a victory for systems and meticulous preparation whilst you clearly don't.
Yes, but I'm talking about when victories for systems etc are held up as though they are diametrically opposite to football. One is the other, they cant be mutually exclusive.
Who does have the best players in the country? Doesnt it change from year to year depending largely on who has won the AI?
Quote from: haranguerer on August 02, 2012, 09:55:48 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on August 02, 2012, 09:37:12 PM
Quote from: Ohtoohtobe on August 02, 2012, 02:15:59 PM
Quote from: Collins on July 28, 2012, 10:00:19 PM
Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003.
Donegal aren't as good as Tyrone 2003. That Tyrone side had won two All-Ireland minor and two All-Ireland U21 titles in the five years previous. Donegal have one Ulster U21 title in the past five years.
Donegal should have won U21 All Ireland title in 2010 Murphy's missed penalty cost them however it's true Donegal aren't as good either are Kerry 2012 as good as Kerry in 2003.
Donegal have a midfield however, Tyrone never had, and I feel Kerry have got away with theirs this last while
I dunno. Sheehan and Maher might not be as good a partnership as Kerry had five years ago, but I think it's as good as what's left, with the possible exception of Cork's.
Its not better than Donegals.
What odds on Kerry/Mayo final?
Quote from: Dangleberrys on August 03, 2012, 05:28:12 PM
What odds on Kerry/Mayo final?
10/1. Cork v Dublin final is what the punters think, it's currently 5/2.
Here are my thoughts on Saturday's games FWIW:
http://www.livegaelic.com/the-proper-punter/gaa-betting-saturday-04th-august/
Both accurate imo
Quote from: Ohtoohtobe on August 02, 2012, 02:11:38 PM
Can't understand this Donegal bandwagon at all.
Kerry had the All-Ireland won with seven minutes to go and have lost one player from that team. They topped Division One of the league and are in serious form.
Donegal have achieved the precise total of fcuk all.
This reminds me of 2009 when Dublin were odds-on faves to beat Kerry in the quarters. I lumped on €200 on the Kingdom and my bet was safe after 42 seconds.
Kerry might not win by 17 points on Sunday, but I'd be shocked if they didn't win.
Kerry by five for me.
now two ulster titles isnt fcuk all, both from preliminary round, they dont have the luxury of getn a bye to the semi final and meet the might of clare or limerick :)
am i now on the wagon? :)
Quote from: eddie d on August 03, 2012, 08:52:14 PM
Quote from: Ohtoohtobe on August 02, 2012, 02:11:38 PM
Can't understand this Donegal bandwagon at all.
Kerry had the All-Ireland won with seven minutes to go and have lost one player from that team. They topped Division One of the league and are in serious form.
Donegal have achieved the precise total of fcuk all.
This reminds me of 2009 when Dublin were odds-on faves to beat Kerry in the quarters. I lumped on €200 on the Kingdom and my bet was safe after 42 seconds.
Kerry might not win by 17 points on Sunday, but I'd be shocked if they didn't win.
Kerry by five for me.
now two ulster titles isnt fcuk all, both from preliminary round, they dont have the luxury of getn a bye to the semi final and meet the might of clare or limerick :)
am i now on the wagon? :)
Exactly, winning back to back Ulster titles via the preliminary round is worth respect anywhere.That was 8 games in total. Ulster is the toughest competition to win.
There was talk 2 years of changing the format for each province by having even numbers, 8 counties in each province. Mayo who dominate Connacht etc would have it harder then...
Quote from: Keane on August 03, 2012, 07:15:02 PM
Here are my thoughts on Saturday's games FWIW:
http://www.livegaelic.com/the-proper-punter/gaa-betting-saturday-04th-august/
Hope a few people took note of these.
Added tomorrow's two games' previews to the column for anyone who hasn't seen them as well at the same link.
I do think whoever wins between Kerry & Donegal will win it out. Kerry can play badly and still win though, which might get them through.
Hmm ... think Kerry probably have to much for Donegal.
And Cork are obviously Stronger than expected, so where does that leave the Donegal for Sam campaign?
Its in better health than it was 35 minutes ago (NAP)
In even better health now 8)
This is it then - Cork vs Donegal. Best 2 teams in Ireland and have been for over a year. Winner takes Sam.
7/1 should be now about 3/1.
Cork are a great side. Just think this is Donegal's year. And as said before, Donegal will take care of the Dubs in the final and beat Mayo worse should they win their semi.
:)
Have as much as you want on.
This Donegal team simply won't get beat. They demoralized a fantastic Cork side. Donegal made them quit with 15 minutes to go. Very very few sides in history could have done that.
Already counting my winnings.
8) 8) 8)
Quote from: Collins on August 26, 2012, 05:14:00 PM
Have as much as you want on.
This Donegal team simply won't get beat. They demoralized a fantastic Cork side. Donegal made them quit with 15 minutes to go. Very very few sides in history could have done that.
Already counting my winnings.
8) 8) 8)
I guess it'll be the clash of the titans in the event of a Mayo-Donegal final, then.
Big difference between hammering Cork in a league game, then making them quit in an All Ireland semi.
Anyway, will you help me carry my money? There's just so much of it.....
(http://s3.images.com/huge.2.13065.JPG)
Well done lads, to all appearances Donegal won't be beaten now.
Thanks lad
;D
Quote from: Collins on August 26, 2012, 05:24:01 PM
Big difference between hammering Cork in a league game, then making them quit in an All Ireland semi.
Anyway, will you help me carry my money? There's just so much of it.....
(http://s3.images.com/huge.2.13065.JPG)
:-\
http://www.rte.ie/sport/gaa/football/2011/0731/283026-cork_mayo_report/ (http://www.rte.ie/sport/gaa/football/2011/0731/283026-cork_mayo_report/)
I don't think anyone will be laying off after that - though if I were haranguerer I'd be seriously considering cashing in at least some at this stage.
03 Jun 12 / 09:24 Single (EW) 1 All Ireland Senior Football Championship 2012 - Winner – Outright Donegal @ 18/1 – £20.00
One step ahead Hardy, note the EW ;)
Good man.
Selection Details
Reference 1217050116
Event Sam Maguire Cup : Outright
Market Win Market
Selection BACK Donegal
Time Bet Placed 01-02-2012 13:30
Time Last Matched 01-02-2012 13:30
Status Matched
Requested Odds 26
Matched Odds 26
Matched £98.00
Potential Profit £2,450.00
Quote from: mccool85 on August 28, 2012, 10:07:59 PM
Selection Details
Reference 1217050116
Event Sam Maguire Cup : Outright
Market Win Market
Selection BACK Donegal
Time Bet Placed 01-02-2012 13:30
Time Last Matched 01-02-2012 13:30
Status Matched
Requested Odds 26
Matched Odds 26
Matched £98.00
Potential Profit £2,450.00
Wow! Does that mean you got Donegal at 25/1? How is that possible after they got to the semis last year?
QuoteWow! Does that mean you got Donegal at 25/1?
Good odds, to be sure. But Tyrone at 33/1 in 2008 was the greatest of all.
QuoteHow is that possible after they got to the semis last year?
on a betting exchange all it requires is someone to give it you.
They were generally around 20s with bookmakers at the start of the year which was strange considering they got to the semis last year.
I backed them to win Ulster in '11 at 8/1 and this year they were 7/1 with Hills to win Ulster which was unbelievable.
I think people wrote them off as a bit of a fluke last year, that they didn't score enough and the Cassidy incident would lead to more cracks appearing.
I still think Dublin are the team best equipped to beat them because they play the same way and Donegal will find it a lot harder to get scores against them. Providing Dublin win tomorrow that is.
Good odds, to be sure. But Tyrone at 33/1 in 2008 was the greatest of all.
Tyrone weren't 33/1 at the start of that year. They only drifted to 33/1 after Down beat them in the first game in Ulster so those odds were fair enough.
Just to mention an alternative to either cashing in now or letting it ride, for all those on Donegal at high odds. I've just laid my stake at 1.59 so it's a no-lose bet now.
I backed Mayo at 12s with PP before Quarterfinal but am now after timing.
In fairness to OP he stuck his neck out before the QF ;)
I have linked this captain hindsight video as a reprimand to self.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyb1KYiFkBM
Can some of you guys help me collect my money?
There's just so much of it........my back's broke. Ive already started lifting it but there's still so many bags left.
(http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Everyone%20Else/images-8/garbage-bag-of-money.jpg)
Even need quad bikes and everything
(http://aldbourne.net/images/gallery/bags_of_money_medium.JPG)
I'm going to have to purchase a car wash to launder this.
Haranguerer will own a chain of chicken restaurants.
Tell the truth you yella bastards, youse only staked a quid on Donegal.
Well done fellas-despite their worst performance this summer,they still had enough in reserve for all to collect...
Fair play and a great bet in hindsight. Donegal played well and despite what MK said they were always better than Mayo Cork Kerry .............
Donegal played well and despite what MK said they were always better than Mayo Cork Kerry ............. ??? ??? ???
Where exactly did i even mention Cork or Kerry?
Not to detract from the OP's excellent advice,Donegal won today despite more mistakes or turnovers than any of their games this season.
I'm actually planning on building my own las vegas, hardy.....just looking a site in the hills somewhere ;)
Also put them on -2 yesterday, so it all worked out well.
Was donegals worst performance of the year though right enough.
Vile team. If you'd have said to me 10 years ago I'd be supporting Tyrone vs Donegal I'd never have been able to think of how that could happen.But it has.
Quote from: Collins on May 26, 2013, 05:20:51 PM
Vile team. If you'd have said to me 10 years ago I'd be supporting Tyrone vs Donegal I'd never have been able to think of how that could happen.But it has.
Vile ?
Why so ?