I think that this election will have a big bearing in the north particulary for nationalist voters. Will nationalists see the gains made by sinn fein and think that a united ireland is now possible through the medium of politics? will some SDLP voters transfer their vote to sinn fein because of this?
Quote from: randomtask on February 26, 2011, 10:28:29 PM
I think that this election will have a big bearing in the north particulary for nationalist voters. Will nationalists see the gains made by sinn fein and think that a united ireland is now possible through the medium of politics? will some SDLP voters transfer their vote to sinn fein because of this?
Didn't realise Sinn Féin was likely to form part of the next Irish government.
Quote from: randomtask on February 26, 2011, 10:28:29 PM
I think that this election will have a big bearing in the north particulary for nationalist voters. Will nationalists see the gains made by sinn fein and think that a united ireland is now possible through the medium of politics? will some SDLP voters transfer their vote to sinn fein because of this?
you beat me to it random. this will send the shivers up the nordie parties particulary the stoops and the duppers to a lesser extent. people dont forget that the stoops did their best to snuggle up to finna fail but got a kick in the mouth
Quote from: lawnseed on February 26, 2011, 10:52:29 PM
Quote from: randomtask on February 26, 2011, 10:28:29 PM
I think that this election will have a big bearing in the north particulary for nationalist voters. Will nationalists see the gains made by sinn fein and think that a united ireland is now possible through the medium of politics? will some SDLP voters transfer their vote to sinn fein because of this?
you beat me to it random. this will send the shivers up the nordie parties particulary the stoops and the duppers to a lesser extent. people dont forget that the stoops did their best to snuggle up to finna fail but got a kick in the mouth
Are FF not still a bigger party than PSF despite FF having their worst performance
ever?
Anyway, the main party are now Fine Gael. With those West Brits back in charge they'll be inviting the Brits back to Dublin Castle before long. ;)
What's PSF?? :o
Quote from: sammymaguire on February 26, 2011, 11:37:58 PM
What's PSF?? :o
its Tonto quoting his heroes from bygone days, the DUP. It's Provisional Sinn Fein
There will be ramifications of some sort but it's too early to tell. On the one hand nationalists will be encouraged by SF becoming more prominent in the south and but more importantly SF can trumpet it as justification of their strategy of trying to move political power and influence back to this island - all while the Stoops sit impotent in Westminster. On the other hand, unionists won't like an "'Éire" politician (Gerry A) dictating to them who their First or deputy First Minister will be, so I'd expect Robinson and the rest to pull their horns in.
BTW Don't forget this is the first election SF have properly contested in the south i.e. without northern distractions, so it is very encouraging. The next one is the big one for SF and northerners...
Quote from: Hoof Hearted on February 26, 2011, 11:41:14 PM
Quote from: sammymaguire on February 26, 2011, 11:37:58 PM
What's PSF?? :o
its Tonto quoting his heroes from bygone days, the DUP. It's Provisional Sinn Fein
Have never supported the DUP nor is there much of an indication that that is going to change.
Regardless, I shall allow that to slide and assure you that I have got my information from a very... erm... reputable source:
http://www.sinnfein.org/index2.html (http://www.sinnfein.org/index2.html)
I think the name is in reference to their forebears who also carry the name 'Provisional'.
Quote from: Tonto on February 26, 2011, 11:29:46 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on February 26, 2011, 10:52:29 PM
Quote from: randomtask on February 26, 2011, 10:28:29 PM
I think that this election will have a big bearing in the north particulary for nationalist voters. Will nationalists see the gains made by sinn fein and think that a united ireland is now possible through the medium of politics? will some SDLP voters transfer their vote to sinn fein because of this?
you beat me to it random. this will send the shivers up the nordie parties particulary the stoops and the duppers to a lesser extent. people dont forget that the stoops did their best to snuggle up to finna fail but got a kick in the mouth
Are FF not still a bigger party than PSF despite FF having their worst performance ever?
Anyway, the main party are now Fine Gael. With those West Brits back in charge they'll be inviting the Brits back to Dublin Castle before long. ;)
Feck off Tonto ::) Nationalist Republican Fine Gael all the way, you'll be getting a vote for the Irish Presidency soon ;)
Quote from: Tonto on February 26, 2011, 11:29:46 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on February 26, 2011, 10:52:29 PM
Quote from: randomtask on February 26, 2011, 10:28:29 PM
I think that this election will have a big bearing in the north particulary for nationalist voters. Will nationalists see the gains made by sinn fein and think that a united ireland is now possible through the medium of politics? will some SDLP voters transfer their vote to sinn fein because of this?
you beat me to it random. this will send the shivers up the nordie parties particulary the stoops and the duppers to a lesser extent. people dont forget that the stoops did their best to snuggle up to finna fail but got a kick in the mouth
Are FF not still a bigger party than PSF despite FF having their worst performance ever?
Anyway, the main party are now Fine Gael. With those West Brits back in charge they'll be inviting the Brits back to Dublin Castle before long. ;)
tonto i think its fair to say that everyone in the new dail is irish and have the best interests of the country at heart but are intitled to their point of view, i just heard garret fitzgerald pay gerry adams probably the greatest compliment ever he recieved on irish television i have to say i was surprised. i think its time for mature politics not point scoring, alot of things that sinn fein said would happen have come to pass. in fairness no one can point to fitzgerald and say he was a cronie type but he has been in the past very critical of sinn fein.. things change
I can only see this election being a knee jerk reaction from FF to the obvious choose FG, not peoples' admiration of FG or Enda Kenny.... He is on a hiding to nothing at least Sinn Fein are not in the firing line this time around so should be in a very strong position in 4-5 years time
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 26, 2011, 10:47:00 PM
Didn't realise Sinn Féin was likely to form part of the next Irish government.
For northerners it's not about being part of this government Mayo. We're used to playing the long game. In terms of what will happen up here it's all about momentum. SF making big gains on the national stage while their opposition, the SDLP, sit in the British Parliament across the water, unable to do anything but take home big wages and expenses - while SF mix it up with the big boys in Dáil Éireann.
Quote from: Ulick on February 26, 2011, 11:50:38 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 26, 2011, 10:47:00 PM
Didn't realise Sinn Féin was likely to form part of the next Irish government.
For northerners it's not about being part of this government Mayo. We're used to playing the long game. In terms of what will happen up here it's all about momentum. SF making big gains on the national stage while their opposition, the SDLP, sit in the British Parliament across the water, unable to do anything but take home big wages and expenses - while SF mix it up with the big boys in Dáil Éireann.
Maybe the SDLP should come to the Republic!
at the end of may 'mayo' the stoops will cease to exist
Quote from: sammymaguire on February 26, 2011, 11:48:52 PM
I can only see this election being a knee jerk reaction from FF to the obvious choose FG, not peoples' admiration of FG or Enda Kenny.... He is on a hiding to nothing at least Sinn Fein are not in the firing line this time around so should be in a very strong position in 4-5 years time
I don't think Sinn Feins showing is an anomaly. They've got their feet under the table now and I think they'll continue to build on it. By next election Adams will be gone as the head honcho and a southern will take over signalling their intentions as a serious all Ireland player.
i hope that these results in the 26, dont put the shite up the loyalists notice how adams stressed 'our friends in the north' i still think sinn fein are spread too thin between the north and south unless they get their team strenghtened they will continue to be also rans
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 12:08:20 AM
i hope that these results in the 26, dont put the shite up the loyalists notice how adams stressed 'our friends in the north' i still think sinn fein are spread too thin between the north and south unless they get their team strenghtened they will continue to be also rans
Don't worry Lawnseed, we will take 4 or 5 of your new seats @ Election 2016 ;)
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 12:08:20 AM
i hope that these results in the 26, dont put the shite up the loyalists notice how adams stressed 'our friends in the north' i still think sinn fein are spread too thin between the north and south unless they get their team strenghtened they will continue to be also rans
Don't underestimate the big payday which will come for SF with this result. As well as the extra funding coming from the state, there will be the extra income from the new TDs going back to the Party Then there will be the speaking rights in the Dáil, access to the media etc... All that will be used to build capacity and infrastructure around the country in order to get the "build-on" constituencies next time out. It should actually be very hard for SF to f**k-up this opportunity over the next few of years.
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 27, 2011, 12:26:47 AM
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 12:08:20 AM
i hope that these results in the 26, dont put the shite up the loyalists notice how adams stressed 'our friends in the north' i still think sinn fein are spread too thin between the north and south unless they get their team strenghtened they will continue to be also rans
Don't worry Lawnseed, we will take 4 or 5 of your new seats @ Election 2016 ;)
do you honestly think that edna can stick to the script for five years ff are gone. fg are next 2 years max. its not gonna work. labour will cave when the pressure of the cuts come to bear. 25 artics of 50euro notes that what 100 billion euro looks like. the countrys bankrupt mayo the shit has'nt even hit the fan yet. happiest man in ireland- brian lenahan- re-elected. he has a ringside seat to what will be the most tempestious dail since the 1920s.
dont forget if the shinners dont get with modernisation they will suffer more defections
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 12:41:32 AM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 27, 2011, 12:26:47 AM
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 12:08:20 AM
i hope that these results in the 26, dont put the shite up the loyalists notice how adams stressed 'our friends in the north' i still think sinn fein are spread too thin between the north and south unless they get their team strenghtened they will continue to be also rans
Don't worry Lawnseed, we will take 4 or 5 of your new seats @ Election 2016 ;)
do you honestly think that edna can stick to the script for five years ff are gone. fg are next 2 years max. its not gonna work. labour will cave when the pressure of the cuts come to bear. 25 artics of 50euro notes that what 100 billion euro looks like. the countrys bankrupt mayo the shit has'nt even hit the fan yet. happiest man in ireland- brian lenahan- re-elected. he has a ringside seat to what will be the most tempestious dail since the 1920s.dont forget if the shinners dont get with modernisation they will suffer more defections
I seriously doubt that, he really doesn't look in good shape at the minute.
I don't think Labour will have too many qualms about making cuts tbh, it's not as though they're left wing you know - unless a scandal of some sort arises this could last a fair while.
I genuinely believe that this could be an historical day for both north and south, sinn fein seem to be getting great publicity and praise for the way they managed this election and when things go t*ts up with the bail out, sinn fein will stand tall and say we offered an alternative. These results will be a superb spring board to the next storment elections giving the shinners a fighting chance of having the first ministers job up north as well. Things are on the up for sinn fein big time!
Should be said that some good independents like Mick Wallace & Thomas Pringle have been returned. I can see SF working closely with these people to close out FF as the main opposition.
lads if Sinn Féin do fairly well in the south elections this time, and are sitting in the wings next time around there is a fair chance they will have a big say in the south as well as being the biggest party in the north. could there be a push for united ireland? not because of republican notions but because it might be the best idea for all who live here. the north isn't really having the best of times and Cameron isn't really on the ball so change is coming imo. Sinn Féin don't want the IMF here which I am guessing most people don't want as well as coming closer to being the largest party up here (northern ireland) at the minute. Can see them having a massive say in thing in the near future. What do you all think?
The biggest issue that I see happening is the following -
1 - SF in the North going in with the DUP and forcing through massive cuts
2 - SF in South whinging about every cut that takes place....
It will be interesting to see when the papers/media start comparing the SF comments in the South on cuts etc to the comments in the North about running the country within budget and making cuts...
Quote from: DUBSFORSAM1 on February 27, 2011, 09:34:34 AM
The biggest issue that I see happening is the following -
1 - SF in the North going in with the DUP and forcing through massive cuts
2 - SF in South whinging about every cut that takes place....
It will be interesting to see when the papers/media start comparing the SF comments in the South on cuts etc to the comments in the North about running the country within budget and making cuts...
Sinn fein in the north will just blame the budget from Westminster for the cuts.
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 27, 2011, 12:26:47 AM
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 12:08:20 AM
i hope that these results in the 26, dont put the shite up the loyalists notice how adams stressed 'our friends in the north' i still think sinn fein are spread too thin between the north and south unless they get their team strenghtened they will continue to be also rans
Don't worry Lawnseed, we will take 4 or 5 of your new seats @ Election 2016 ;)
It's funny that you think FG won't f**k this up
Quote from: randomtask on February 26, 2011, 10:28:29 PM
I think that this election will have a big bearing in the north particulary for nationalist voters. Will nationalists see the gains made by sinn fein and think that a united ireland is now possible through the medium of politics? will some SDLP voters transfer their vote to sinn fein because of this?
Significantly, SF's showing in the election was without mentioning the constitutional issue at all. They know that the southern electorate would have had no interest.
They had plenty of room for growth in the south whereas they've already had the growth in the north. There are some votes the will never take and I'd imagine the balance between SF and the SDLP has levelled out at this stage.
Quote from: Maguire01 on February 27, 2011, 11:34:47 AM
Quote from: randomtask on February 26, 2011, 10:28:29 PM
I think that this election will have a big bearing in the north particulary for nationalist voters. Will nationalists see the gains made by sinn fein and think that a united ireland is now possible through the medium of politics? will some SDLP voters transfer their vote to sinn fein because of this?
Significantly, SF's showing in the election was without mentioning the constitutional issue at all. They know that the southern electorate would have had no interest.
They had plenty of room for growth in the south whereas they've already had the growth in the north. There are some votes the will never take and I'd imagine the balance between SF and the SDLP has levelled out at this stage.
Doubt it, expect SF to grow in the may election and the stoops to shrink.
Quote from: lawnseed on February 26, 2011, 10:52:29 PM
people dont forget that the stoops did their best to snuggle up to finna fail but got a kick in the mouth
I thought it was Ritchie who drew a line firmly under that when she won the leadership. I don't think anyone got a "kick in the mouth". But don't let the truth get in the way.
social democratic and LABOUR party maguire, if the stoops where anything other than the sickofantic power grabbing crapheads that they truely are they would have been trying to team up with labour in the south, the problem being that labour were not in power at the time. these crowd would join the devil to get in power once you keep that in mind then you understand the mindset of your typical stoop... all backdoors
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 11:59:28 AM
social democratic and LABOUR party maguire, if the stoops where anything other than the sickofantic power grabbing crapheads that they truely are they would have been trying to team up with labour in the south, the problem being that labour were not in power at the time. these crowd would join the devil to get in power once you keep that in mind then you understand the mindset of your typical stoop... all backdoors
very harsh, but there's definitely some truth there, where did they see the supposed fit with FF? In fairness, they're probably a good match for each other now, it's hard to believe that the SDLP are so toxic that even the prospect of them forming an alliance with FF would make FF implode in this manner.
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 11:59:28 AM
if the stoops where anything other than the sickofantic ...
Christ Almighty
i voted sdlp last time out, it will be sf next time.
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 26, 2011, 11:53:05 PM
Quote from: Ulick on February 26, 2011, 11:50:38 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 26, 2011, 10:47:00 PM
Didn't realise Sinn Féin was likely to form part of the next Irish government.
For northerners it's not about being part of this government Mayo. We're used to playing the long game. In terms of what will happen up here it's all about momentum. SF making big gains on the national stage while their opposition, the SDLP, sit in the British Parliament across the water, unable to do anything but take home big wages and expenses - while SF mix it up with the big boys in Dáil Éireann.
Maybe the SDLP should come to the Republic!
Or maybe Fine Gael, who you claim to be Republicans, and who carry the tagline of "The United Ireland Party" should follow Sinn Féin's lead and stand in the north?
Maybe that's why the FF'ers and FG'ers of this world don't really give a fcuk about Irish Unity....maybe they realise that when that day comes, their refusal to set up in the six counties throughout partition and their ingrained partitionist attitude in general will come back to bite them in the ass in the when they come knocking on doors in Tyrone, Derry, Belfast, Fermanagh etc looking for votes! ;D
There is only one All-Ireland Party and down the line, as politics in this country becomes more 32 county orientated, it will be SF who will be best positioned!!
Maybe the main implication will be increased state pensions and welfare benefits in the north? It's a stated policy in the south to have all such state transfers at 2009 levels, so presumably they'll not want to send out a message that nordies are worth less than mexicans.
So that'd be an increase in state pensions to the equivalent of about €300 per week and dole/income support to circa €200 per week. All family income supplements etc to be introduced on similar levels I suppose.
Students too wil benefit, as SF policy in the South is for no fees. They can select higher ed in the D'Hondt process after the NI elections and eliminate the fees there, instead of the £6000 proposed.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2011, 01:31:02 PM
Students too wil benefit, as SF policy in the South is for no fees. They can select higher ed in the D'Hondt process after the NI elections and eliminate the fees there, instead of the £6000 proposed.
It'll be like a socialist utopia, SF keep on raising expenditure and Cameron keeps on footing the bill. I'd say the north could see emmigration from the UK. Of course the increased numbers of people might put more of a burden on the exchequer, but I'm sure something could be worked out.
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 28, 2011, 02:04:21 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2011, 01:31:02 PM
Students too wil benefit, as SF policy in the South is for no fees. They can select higher ed in the D'Hondt process after the NI elections and eliminate the fees there, instead of the £6000 proposed.
It'll be like a socialist utopia, SF keep on raising expenditure and Cameron keeps on footing the bill. I'd say the north could see emmigration from the UK. Of course the increased numbers of people might put more of a burden on the exchequer, but I'm sure something could be worked out.
Could do what the Scots did, elimate fees for themselves, but any students coming into Scotland has to pay the fees.
Quote from: ziggysego on February 28, 2011, 02:17:13 PM
Could do what the Scots did, elimate fees for themselves, but any students coming into Scotland has to pay the fees.
Wouldn't make much difference here because the vast majority of undergraduate in QUB & UU are local students. The Scottish unis have a much higher proportion of students from outside Scotland.
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 11:59:28 AM
social democratic and LABOUR party maguire, if the stoops where anything other than the sickofantic power grabbing crapheads that they truely are they would have been trying to team up with labour in the south, the problem being that labour were not in power at the time. these crowd would join the devil to get in power once you keep that in mind then you understand the mindset of your typical stoop... all backdoors
You won't find me defending any moves by the SDLP to get closer to FF. It made little sense. I agree that if the SDLP were to form an alliance, it should naturally be with Labour.
But on your previous comment, who gave who
"a kick in the mouth"? Were you bluffing?
To quote Margaret Ritchie last year:
"There has been talk of us joining with Fianna Fáil and there are some in the SDLP who like such a proposition. But let me make our position clear. Merger with Fianna Fáil? Not on my watch.A very shrewd move in hindsight as it would have been a disaster for the SDLP, given the way things have developed since. I would still have reservations as to whether she was/is the best option for leader, but she definitely scored points on this one.
Jude Collins
Will February matter in May?
I've got in-laws who live south of the border, most of them in Dublin. Over the last forty years we've visited them regularly, had a meal, checked out the shops and the sights. They've come north of the border to Belfast too; but the visit ratio is around 30: 1. Over the last twenty years they've come a little more frequently – say 25:1 - but nothing you would notice.
Why? Their main reason, especially in the early years, was that they didn't want to be shot or blown up. That's understandable. When you watch TV and see only reports of violence coming from an area, you tend to associate danger with that place. But it's more than that. Although they've never articulated it, my in-laws exude a sense of uneasiness, of not being at home (yes I know, I KNOW they're literally not) when they're here.
Contrast that with our appetite for visits south. Dublin has a grace and charm that Belfast can never aspire to. The accent is easier on the ear, the people more relaxed, the atmosphere more...cheerful. Even, in the midst of their economic nightmare, optimistic. When I was a child, my father used to take us on a summer Sunday from Omagh to Bundoran and the seaside. As soon as we'd crossed the border into Donegal, we always gave a spontaneous cheer. I don't actually punch the air any more but I still feel my spirits lift as I move south.
I say all this because the BBC's Mark Devenport has been busy spinning a theory about the impact of Sinn Féin's electoral success south of the border on the north's upcoming elections. Consider, Mark says, Sinn Féin's movement into ministerial office in the north and how that was supposed to impact on their electoral fortunes in the south in 2007. It didn't happen. Far from electoral success, Mark notes, the party's Dail representation dropped from five to four TDs. His suggestion is that in the coming election in the north, Shinner success south of the border could well have little resonance.
But then as a lad, Mark never crossed the border between Belleek and Ballyshannon and gave a yelp of delight or felt his spirits lift, yes totally illogically, at the sight of a green post-box. The truth is, we in the north are more impressed by the south than they are by us. Even now the violent conflict is largely over, they'd rather watch from a safe distance; and they quite like the way the southern media paints Gerry Adams as in need of a sat-nav to find his way to the Dail. In point of fact, it's the other way round – southerners need a northern map. Being less provincial and less partitionist, nationalists in the north are more aware of what's going on in the south, respond to it, argue over it, visit it.
So while there are commentators who'll tell you that Sinn Féin success over the weekend may well prove irrelevant to what happens north of the border in May, I don't buy it. Check Facebook, check Twitter, check your own experience. Thousands of nationalist homes in the north followed every twist of the south's election campaign, thousands more did a good deal of yelping and air-punching when Adams and Doherty featured in the top-five vote-getters in the south, and regardless of what Tony O'Reilly's Sindo may say, even the dullest northern dog noted that Sinn Féin near-quadrupled its numbers in the Dail last Friday.
When it comes to elections yes, it's the economy, stupid. But it's also momentum. And while it may stick in some craws, SF have the big M now.
Quote from: Maguire01 on February 28, 2011, 06:23:00 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on February 27, 2011, 11:59:28 AM
social democratic and LABOUR party maguire, if the stoops where anything other than the sickofantic power grabbing crapheads that they truely are they would have been trying to team up with labour in the south, the problem being that labour were not in power at the time. these crowd would join the devil to get in power once you keep that in mind then you understand the mindset of your typical stoop... all backdoors
You won't find me defending any moves by the SDLP to get closer to FF. It made little sense. I agree that if the SDLP were to form an alliance, it should naturally be with Labour.
But on your previous comment, who gave who "a kick in the mouth"? Were you bluffing?
To quote Margaret Ritchie last year:
"There has been talk of us joining with Fianna Fáil and there are some in the SDLP who like such a proposition. But let me make our position clear. Merger with Fianna Fáil? Not on my watch.
A very shrewd move in hindsight as it would have been a disaster for the SDLP, given the way things have developed since. I would still have reservations as to whether she was/is the best option for leader, but she definitely scored points on this one.
In fairness anyone with half a brain could see last year that FF were toxic, that wasn't the case in 2007 when this was first mooted and I don't know for sure, but I think I recall that it was the SDLP who were doing most of the pursuing then, albeit it was under Durkan's watch.
I would always have voted SDLP but it is hard to know what they stand for anymore. At least with Mallon, Hume etc there were men of principles.
On the other hand I don't know if I can bring myselef to vote for SF. It's easy to promise the earth in the South and Doherty is a good talker and all but the hypocrisy involved is hard to swallow.
The cosy set up with the DUP is effectively a coalition and both parties are more concerned with keeping SDLP and Ulster Unionists underfoot than fighting each other ( i.e agreeiing on reduction of council numbers before this was overturned).
You will see the nationalist/unionist agenda wheeled out in the next few months with elections coming up but the partiton subject is not an issue until there is a chance of a nationalist majority ( which is at least 20 years away).
Will there ever be a party in the North focusing on real issues that affect peoples lives ( I don't mean Alliance) and ignoring the constitutional issue.