Poll in tomorrow's Irish Times suggest Labour are now the leading party in the south.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0610/breaking70.html
Labour 32 +8
Fine Gael 28 -4
Fianna Fáil 17 -5
Sinn Féin 9 +1
Greens 3 n/c
This is an extraordinary poll by any estimations. Both Cowen and Kenny will be under serious pressure from within their own parties.
I wouldn't be convinced this poll isn't rogue. But if it holds up the Irish political system could be turned on its head.
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Quote from: Rossfan on June 10, 2010, 10:01:59 PM
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.
Fianna fail will be back up to 40% at the next election. People down here are such drama queens, but when it boils down to it they will be voting for Fianna fail again. Idiots.
How would one from the north with Irish nationality go about voting in these potential elections?
Quote from: muppet on June 10, 2010, 10:15:57 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 10, 2010, 10:01:59 PM
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.
He ruined himself over the Shell craic. Fantastic facilities at Belmullet GAA by the way, fair play to Shell.
Quote from: Lady GAA GAA on June 10, 2010, 10:32:41 PM
How would one from the north with Irish nationality go about voting in these potential elections?
Become resident in a constituency in the Republic. Register to vote, make sure you have done this in good time prior to an election or referendum.
Quote from: Rossfan on June 10, 2010, 10:01:59 PM
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Don't worry Rossfan. I was playing devil's advocate with the Gilmore for Taoiseach stuff.
Having lived (and been politically active) in Dublin for the last few years I'm well aware that Fianna Fail will still poll 5-6% higher in any election than their poll ratings in the days before the election (you only needs to look at last years local and Europeans). 27-8% is likely at the minute even from that position.
Reading the poll at face value they are 4 points ahead of Fine Gael. If they poll 32% they'll definitely pick up a seat in North Kerry (Dick Spring's nephew is running) and Louth would also be a runner. I've seen relatively scientific approaches suggesting they would take 3 seat in Dublin South East and South Central amongst others.The Labour bounce in Dublin and Cork in particular would be huge. Fianna Fail in Dublin are in for a trouncing regardless. Labour could get 35-40 seats
with those numbers. Not saying they actually will.
For Enda Kenny, he's in trouble. This poll suggests the same per centage of the vote Fine Gael polled in 2007, in spite of the Fianna Fáíl vote more than halving.
There will be alot of worried people in FF and FG HQ tomorrow morning.
Quote from: Lady GAA GAA on June 10, 2010, 10:32:41 PM
How would one from the north with Irish nationality go about voting in these potential elections?
you just have to get a form, walk down to the guards, get it signed and send it away. You can register as a british citizen if you'd like to avoid jury duty, but then you can't vote in referendi (is that the correct plural?).
I'd prefer labour to the rest, but they've come out with some serious shite recently, I liked rabbite, but not so sure about gilmore, seems a bit populist (we'll restore salaries etc to public servants etc etc). Nah, if that's the sort of rhetoric he's going to spout, we may as well get bert back. The more I think about voting here, the more futile it seems tbh, i'm sure i'll go along before year end and cast my vote, but i can't see who will deserve it - certainly none of the mainstreams do. There was an interesting candidate in my last by-election last year who was proposing direct democracy (http://www.unitedminds.ie/phpPETITION/) - not sure that it'd work, but i considered voting for him, can't mind if i went for alex king instead.
I see a bit of a dilema for Gilmore, if he goes with a left alliance with SF & the Greens (thats if by some miracle they got the numbers) I don't see it lasting a year. Now that leaves Glimore with option of FG or FF, can Gilmore goes into government with FF even if they are a rump party. If Fine Gael take the most seats, and its about seats not % in polls, Fine Gael will get the Taoiseach based on having more seats.
This won't last. Taking on that many FFers in such a short space of time could destroy Labour. If this leads to more recruitment within Labour we can expect more of the same. Labour need to thread very carefully here but I am fearfull Gilmores ego could jeopardise the party.
Regardless of that I'd say Enda Kenny will be wishing he never suggested a No Confidence Motion on Cowen. He'll be shitting himself :D
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 10, 2010, 10:41:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 10, 2010, 10:15:57 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 10, 2010, 10:01:59 PM
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.
He ruined himself over the Shell craic. Fantastic facilities at Belmullet GAA by the way, fair play to Shell.
Good job all people aren't as easy bought as you.
QuoteLabour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim
Rossfan, they will come very close to winning 1 in Ros/Leitrim.
The 2 FG candidates are poor and no way will they hold onto the 2 they have.
There is a seat going there for labour in my book
There is an outside possibility in Sligo/North Leitrim for Labour. They will have a good candidate and the two sitting FF guys are dead in the water. Interestingly FG will possibly have a strong new candidate on their ticket who has a strong history of getting big votes in local elections. Are the 3 sitting TD's in bother??? Despite their travails its hard to see FF not getting one. FG will get one and the final seat will be between the lower of the two FG guys and Labour I think. FF will not seriously contend for the final seat I reckon.
Personally I'm not surprised at Labour's showing in the poll. It reflects FF's unpopularity and FG's complete inability to capitalise.
Saw the chairman of Belmullet GAA giving a sensible response when asked about this on TG4 last week. Alot of lads in the club are seemingly employed with Shell so he says. Also said matter was voted on by members.
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 11, 2010, 12:53:16 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 10, 2010, 10:41:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 10, 2010, 10:15:57 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 10, 2010, 10:01:59 PM
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.
He ruined himself over the Shell craic. Fantastic facilities at Belmullet GAA by the way, fair play to Shell.
Good job all people aren't as easy bought as you.
In an economy with no jobs we should be encouraging companies to come here not the opposite.
Quote from: INDIANA on June 11, 2010, 01:37:43 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 11, 2010, 12:53:16 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 10, 2010, 10:41:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 10, 2010, 10:15:57 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 10, 2010, 10:01:59 PM
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.
He ruined himself over the Shell craic. Fantastic facilities at Belmullet GAA by the way, fair play to Shell.
Good job all people aren't as easy bought as you.
In an economy with no jobs we should be encouraging companies to come here not the opposite.
No matter what? No problem with even a company with as bad a record as Shell coming so long as they behave ethically and have to adhere to the laws of the land.
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 11, 2010, 01:40:26 PM
No matter what? No problem with even a company with as bad a record as Shell coming so long as they behave ethically and have to adhere to the laws of the land.
If we don't expect it from our Government it's hard to expect it from anyone else.
Quote from: INDIANA on June 11, 2010, 01:37:43 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 11, 2010, 12:53:16 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 10, 2010, 10:41:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 10, 2010, 10:15:57 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 10, 2010, 10:01:59 PM
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.
He ruined himself over the Shell craic. Fantastic facilities at Belmullet GAA by the way, fair play to Shell.
Good job all people aren't as easy bought as you.
In an economy with no jobs we should be encouraging companies to come here not the opposite.
Grand. We'll give them Hill 16, Parnell Park and all the oil in Dalkey via the world's biggest pipeline through your garden, for 50 jobs. Also they will be given powers to just show up and take your garden and evict you. I'm sure you won't mind after all we need the jobs.
Quote from: muppet on June 11, 2010, 03:16:17 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on June 11, 2010, 01:37:43 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 11, 2010, 12:53:16 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 10, 2010, 10:41:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 10, 2010, 10:15:57 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 10, 2010, 10:01:59 PM
This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ. ::)
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance
Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.
He ruined himself over the Shell craic. Fantastic facilities at Belmullet GAA by the way, fair play to Shell.
Good job all people aren't as easy bought as you.
In an economy with no jobs we should be encouraging companies to come here not the opposite.
Grand. We'll give them Hill 16, Parnell Park and all the oil in Dalkey via the world's biggest pipeline through your garden, for 50 jobs. Also they will be given powers to just show up and take your garden and evict you. I'm sure you won't mind after all we need the jobs.
Already a big pipeline going through the centre of Castlebar, very welcome at that. People are moved for the good of the nation all the time, how the hell do you think new roads, Luas lines, reopening railways, building new community facilities get built. I really don't hold much sympathy for some of those so-called protesters; one in particular can be seen falling off bar stools in Galway. The Gardai in Mayo costs more than most other counties with much bigger populations the sole reason is keeping travelling circus professional protestors. The Gardai resources would be much better spent in Castlebar, Ballina, Westport, Claremorris, Swinford, Kiltimagh etc. or providing Community Gardai in rural parts of the County. "I'm a local" says the protestor wearing a certain other counties GAA top from the other Coast and with an accent well not a Mayo one for sure.
Anyways the reason Jerry Crowley lost his seat the last time was because he supported the Shell to Sea crowd against the will of the vast majority of the county and the majority of the local community up there.
I reckon a left wing vote would more likely go to Michael Kilcoyne if he ran as an Independent (he is ex-Labour for non-Mayo posters), Gerry Murray if he runs again for SF (but I don't think there is a big SF vote in Mayo), Harry Barrett might run for Labour and might split the vote by taking the lefties in Castlebar. The Greens should forget about Mayo.
"People are moved for the good of the nation all the time".
Only once in the history of the State has this power been given to a private (foreign owned) company. It was found to be unconstitutional. Some of the protestors served nearly 3 months in jail to highlight this issue. No one has served anytime for the illegal confiscation of Irish citizens land.
In addition do you condone the treatment handed out to a non-protestor by the Gardai leaving him with a stroke but no Garda apology (Shell did apologise)? This story will receive as much media attention as the real story behind Anglo, i.e. minimal if anything.
Ireland of the welcomes (as long as you have more money than the locals).
Majority of voters want an election in 2010
A majority of the electorate want a General Election before the end of the year, according to the second part of an opinion poll in today's Irish Times
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0612/politics.html
Quote from: Zapatista on June 12, 2010, 08:41:09 AM
Majority of voters want an election in 2010
A majority of the electorate want a General Election before the end of the year, according to the second part of an opinion poll in today's Irish Times
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0612/politics.html
They have a mandate to govern you know ::)
Gilmore will never be taoiseach as long as he has a hole in his arse.
Quote from: no mo do yakamo on June 12, 2010, 06:07:50 PM
Gilmore will never be taoiseach as long as he has a hole in his arse.
Sure he is flying the Red flag and saying nothing about anything, best way to do well in polls in seems.
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 12, 2010, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on June 12, 2010, 08:41:09 AM
Majority of voters want an election in 2010
A majority of the electorate want a General Election before the end of the year, according to the second part of an opinion poll in today's Irish Times
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0612/politics.html
They have a mandate to govern you know ::)
Ye may get on to RTE with your rolly eyes.
They might point out to you that a mandate doesn't change what people want.
This poll is the end of Enda Kenny.
It's the end-a Kenny.
Quote from: Zapatista on June 13, 2010, 09:34:46 AM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 12, 2010, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on June 12, 2010, 08:41:09 AM
Majority of voters want an election in 2010
A majority of the electorate want a General Election before the end of the year, according to the second part of an opinion poll in today's Irish Times
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0612/politics.html
They have a mandate to govern you know ::)
Ye may get on to RTE with your rolly eyes.
They might point out to you that a mandate doesn't change what people want.
LOL, am I being mistaken for a Soldier with no Destiny :D
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 13, 2010, 11:59:46 AM
This poll is the end of Enda Kenny.
Yip thats the big story not the end of FF ::)
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 13, 2010, 02:40:26 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 13, 2010, 11:59:46 AM
This poll is the end of Enda Kenny.
Yip thats the big story not the end of FF ::)
You mustn't know much about what's going on.
The place is screwed an people want a new opposition leader. ::)
We are just plane stupid.
Quote from: Rossie11 on June 11, 2010, 01:03:52 PM
QuoteLabour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim
Rossfan, they will come very close to winning 1 in Ros/Leitrim.
The 2 FG candidates are poor and no way will they hold onto the 2 they have.
There is a seat going there for labour in my book
I presume you are talking about the Ballagh man( a great Ros supporter)??
My clued in mates tell me he'd have a better chance if he had remained Independent .
Quote from: Rossfan on June 13, 2010, 08:13:12 PM
Quote from: Rossie11 on June 11, 2010, 01:03:52 PM
QuoteLabour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim
Rossfan, they will come very close to winning 1 in Ros/Leitrim.
The 2 FG candidates are poor and no way will they hold onto the 2 they have.
There is a seat going there for labour in my book
I presume you are talking about the Ballagh man( a great Ros supporter)??
My clued in mates tell me he'd have a better chance if he had remained Independent .
Frenchpark stock so!
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 13, 2010, 02:40:26 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 13, 2010, 11:59:46 AM
This poll is the end of Enda Kenny.
Yip thats the big story not the end of FF ::)
Thought that odd myself when I hear it as top news story on all the stations.
I wasn't mistaking you for a soldier. The first day it was all about Gilmore and now its all about Kenny and normally the poll should be forgot about by tomorrow.
I can't see a leadership change doing any good. FGs big hitter Dick Bruton is very popular in Finance squaring upto an ever failing Lenihan. Kenny has COwen on the ropes. A resuffle with FG finace spokesperson will cost the party as any replacement will not fill his boots on the most important position in the party.
Quote from: Zapatista on June 14, 2010, 12:25:56 AM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 13, 2010, 02:40:26 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 13, 2010, 11:59:46 AM
This poll is the end of Enda Kenny.
Yip thats the big story not the end of FF ::)
Thought that odd myself when I hear it as top news story on all the stations.
I wasn't mistaking you for a soldier. The first day it was all about Gilmore and now its all about Kenny and normally the poll should be forgot about by tomorrow.
I can't see a leadership change doing any good. FGs big hitter Dick Bruton is very popular in Finance squaring upto an ever failing Lenihan. Kenny has COwen on the ropes. A resuffle with FG finace spokesperson will cost the party as any replacement will not fill his boots on the most important position in the party.
But if Bruton wants to be leader, he has to make his move now. Otherwise it'll be 4 or 5 years down the line and others like Coveney, Varadker, etc. could be strong contenders. If there's a change now, he's guaranteed to win and pretty much guaranteed to be Taoiseach.
I can't believe the naivety of the debate - FG front benchers and media commentators alike. Enda is a great lad, people like him, he's "electrified" the party, etc. Hardly any discussion of the only relevant point: large numbers of voters, particularly in urban constituencies will not bring themselves to elect him as Taoiseach. With Kenny as leader, FG are likely to be the second party in the coalition and Gilmore is likely to be Taoiseach. With Bruton as leader, FG will lead the government. Nothing else matters.
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 01:00:08 PM
I can't believe the naivety of the debate - FG front benchers and media commentators alike. Enda is a great lad, people like him, he's "electrified" the party, etc. Hardly any discussion of the only relevant point: large numbers of voters, particularly in urban constituencies will not bring themselves to elect him as Taoiseach. With Kenny as leader, FG are likely to be the second party in the coalition and Gilmore is likely to be Taoiseach. With Bruton as leader, FG will lead the government. Nothing else matters.
The FF strategy hasn't changed. Bash the opposition leader whether it is Alan Dukes, John Bruton, Michael Noonan or Enda Kenny. Attack him on vague issues such as personality, ability to lead, etc. This sound byte is lapped up by the Irish media at every election and FF don't have to burden themselves with awkward things like policies. And it works. The problem in FG is that there are so many ambitious/opportunist types that they don't come out aggressively defending their leader unlike their FF counterparts who fall over themselves to do so.
Bruton might win this but he should know better than most what will happen next. The FF media guns will turn on him and he will end up like his brother, Kenny and the rest except he will start with a fractured party. I am very surprised at him tbh. I would have expected that he would do a deal with Kenny so there would be a bloodless transfer after the election like Ahern/Cowen and Blair/Brown (almost).
As an aside anyone who thinks Labour will win an Irish GE has obviously never lived through an Irish GE or has never been outside a city.
Quote from: muppet on June 14, 2010, 01:36:10 PM
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 01:00:08 PM
I can't believe the naivety of the debate - FG front benchers and media commentators alike. Enda is a great lad, people like him, he's "electrified" the party, etc. Hardly any discussion of the only relevant point: large numbers of voters, particularly in urban constituencies will not bring themselves to elect him as Taoiseach. With Kenny as leader, FG are likely to be the second party in the coalition and Gilmore is likely to be Taoiseach. With Bruton as leader, FG will lead the government. Nothing else matters.
The FF strategy hasn't changed. Bash the opposition leader whether it is Alan Dukes, John Bruton, Michael Noonan or Enda Kenny. Attack him on vague issues such as personality, ability to lead, etc. This sound byte is lapped up by the Irish media at every election and FF don't have to burden themselves with awkward things like policies. And it works. The problem in FG is that there are so many ambitious/opportunist types that they don't come out aggressively defending their leader unlike their FF counterparts who fall over themselves to do so.
Bruton might win this but he should know better than most what will happen next. The FF media guns will turn on him and he will end up like his brother, Kenny and the rest except he will start with a fractured party. I am very surprised at him tbh. I would have expected that he would do a deal with Kenny so there would be a bloodless transfer after the election like Ahern/Cowen and Blair/Brown (almost).
Whether or not it's based on FF propaganda (and I don't necessarily subscribe to the theory that people need FF to show them that Kenny is a lightweight of limited capacity) the electorate's perception of Kenny remains the most important factor in deciding FG's fate in the election.
This, and FG's naive attitude to it, to which I referred, has just been graphically borne out on Liveline. 80% of callers to the programme, all but a few of whom were FG members, opposed Bruton's heave. However, in a phone-in text poll with over 8,000 respondents, 62% supported it.
Quote
As an aside anyone who thinks Labour will win an Irish GE has obviously never lived through an Irish GE or has never been outside a city.
I'd say the history of GEs will mean less at the next election than ever before. These are unusual times and the disaffected vote will be the biggest it's ever been. A huge anti-FF vote will be up for grabs, a large proportion of which will be the young dis-employed (i.e. job losers) and negative-equity sufferers. The proverb "if you're not a socialist at twenty you have no heart; if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain" might be relevant. Add in the fact that Gilmore understands that the last thing he needs to do is enunciate policies to give people something to vote against, while FG hasn't grasped this at all and is busy publishing policies when all the electorate wants is some to hate less than FF and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see labour win more seats than FG. At least with Kenny in charge.
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 03:10:16 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 14, 2010, 01:36:10 PM
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 01:00:08 PM
I can't believe the naivety of the debate - FG front benchers and media commentators alike. Enda is a great lad, people like him, he's "electrified" the party, etc. Hardly any discussion of the only relevant point: large numbers of voters, particularly in urban constituencies will not bring themselves to elect him as Taoiseach. With Kenny as leader, FG are likely to be the second party in the coalition and Gilmore is likely to be Taoiseach. With Bruton as leader, FG will lead the government. Nothing else matters.
The FF strategy hasn't changed. Bash the opposition leader whether it is Alan Dukes, John Bruton, Michael Noonan or Enda Kenny. Attack him on vague issues such as personality, ability to lead, etc. This sound byte is lapped up by the Irish media at every election and FF don't have to burden themselves with awkward things like policies. And it works. The problem in FG is that there are so many ambitious/opportunist types that they don't come out aggressively defending their leader unlike their FF counterparts who fall over themselves to do so.
Bruton might win this but he should know better than most what will happen next. The FF media guns will turn on him and he will end up like his brother, Kenny and the rest except he will start with a fractured party. I am very surprised at him tbh. I would have expected that he would do a deal with Kenny so there would be a bloodless transfer after the election like Ahern/Cowen and Blair/Brown (almost).
Whether or not it's based on FF propaganda (and I don't necessarily subscribe to the theory that people need FF to show them that Kenny is a lightweight of limited capacity) the electorate's perception of Kenny remains the most important factor in deciding FG's fate in the election.
This, and FG's naive attitude to it, to which I referred, has just been graphically borne out on Liveline. 80% of callers to the programme, all but a few of whom were FG members, opposed Bruton's heave. However, in a phone-in text poll with over 8,000 respondents, 62% supported it.
Quote
As an aside anyone who thinks Labour will win an Irish GE has obviously never lived through an Irish GE or has never been outside a city.
I'd say the history of GEs will mean less at the next election than ever before. These are unusual times and the disaffected vote will be the biggest it's ever been. A huge anti-FF vote will be up for grabs, a large proportion of which will be the young dis-employed (i.e. job losers) and negative-equity sufferers. The proverb "if you're not a socialist at twenty you have no heart; if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain" might be relevant. Add in the fact that Gilmore understands that the last thing he needs to do is enunciate policies to give people something to vote against, while FG hasn't grasped this at all and is busy publishing policies when all the electorate wants is some to hate less than FF and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see labour win more seats than FG. At least with Kenny in charge.
Hardy, nationally they don't have enough realistic candidates to come anywhere other than 2nd and that needs a serious collapse of FF or FG. It can't be both unless we get 50/60 independents returned.
That seems reasonable, Muppet. But we're two-thirds of the way there. We have the FF collapse. We haven't a FG collapse, just a failure to pick up any of the lost FF support. It's all going to Labour. It may well be that Labour's 6-point-odd lead over FG wouldn't deliver them more seats, based on analysis by constituency. But if FF were to collapse even further (for instance, they can't expect to go up or even remain static after the next budget), who will pick up the gains? There's no reason to expect that FG will while Inda is still the Taoiseach on offer and Gilmore just has to keep his mouth shut, except to spout populist shite.
People in this country don't for for things, they vote against things - Hardy is right that Gilmore is playing the correct strategy. He won't win any contests by telling people what he will do (not now anyway, a long way from an election). Kenny has made a complete mess, and I think Bruton sees now that he's a liability and he needs to be ditched (and be seen to be ditched) well in advance of an election.
Bruton is also under serious pressure from the FG front bench to mount a leadership challenge. While a Labour victory seems out of the question, they could end up with sufficient seats to warrant 7 or 8 cabinet posts, whereas the FG front benchers would like to give up no more than 4.
Quote from: Hound on June 14, 2010, 04:03:56 PM
Bruton is also under serious pressure from the FG front bench to mount a leadership challenge. While a Labour victory seems out of the question, they could end up with sufficient seats to warrant 7 or 8 cabinet posts, whereas the FG front benchers would like to give up no more than 4.
And if it goes wrong they could end up with none.
My guess is a deal. Kenny until a year or two after the election, then a bloodless handover to Bruton.
Quote from: muppet on June 14, 2010, 04:37:45 PM
And if it goes wrong they could end up with none.
My guess is a deal. Kenny until a year or two after the election, then a bloodless handover to Bruton.
This is how I would see it.
Kenny hasn't done a bad job and those like Varadkar who were elected and promoted under him (apart from Crieghton) are still on his side. It's much too soon and abrubt for Bruton to make a move. It would be seen as FF dictating the FG leadership. Any move now could trigger and election and leave FG with a bit of a hangover going into one. If Kenny was to take his lack of public popularity and quit then it would put more pressure on Cowen and FF back benchers to push him. The only ones ths would serve at the minute are Labour (apart from it taking the lime light of the poll result away from Cowen). FF don't want an election and niether do FG.
Sorry, but I don't buy it. Kenny as leader is an electoral liability and the major mine in the road to government for FG. Bruton is the darling of the floating voter and the only and obvious choice FG has to make to copper fasten the election win is to install him as leader.
Listen to the people. I'd be willing to bet that an opinion poll asking who do the people think would be the best Taoiseach, lets say in a national government, would result in 1. Bruton, 2. Lenihan. Or perhaps 1. Lenihan, 2. Bruton. Gilmore would be no. 3 in either case. Nobody else is at the races.
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 05:03:02 PM
Sorry, but I don't buy it. Kenny as leader is an electoral liability and the major mine in the road to government for FG. Bruton is the darling of the floating voter and the only and obvious choice FG has to make to copper fasten the election win is to install him as leader.
Listen to the people. I'd be willing to bet that an opinion poll asking who do the people think would be the best Taoiseach, lets say in a national government, would result in 1. Bruton, 2. Lenihan. Or perhaps 1. Lenihan, 2. Bruton. Gilmore would be no. 3 in either case. Nobody else is at the races.
Nail on the head.
A lot of people working on tje assumption that Fianna fail wont lead the next Government, And that is a big dangerous assumption.
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 05:03:02 PM
Sorry, but I don't buy it. Kenny as leader is an electoral liability and the major mine in the road to government for FG. Bruton is the darling of the floating voter and the only and obvious choice FG has to make to copper fasten the election win is to install him as leader.
Listen to the people. I'd be willing to bet that an opinion poll asking who do the people think would be the best Taoiseach, lets say in a national government, would result in 1. Bruton, 2. Lenihan. Or perhaps 1. Lenihan, 2. Bruton. Gilmore would be no. 3 in either case. Nobody else is at the races.
Give them 12 months with Bruton as leader of FG and the electorate won't see him the same way.
Of course Bruton will understand this (he was in the pub with David Davin-Power on Saturday) so the timing might be interesting. Does he see an election within 6 months (i.e. before the inevitable character assassination works)?
I think timing is a crucial part of it. In a way it's hard to see this government getting 12 months without some issue forcing it to the country.
Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....
The thing will probably end in a draw.
Bruton could be making the mistake of taking the FG leadership too early.
He'll get an initial bounce of popularity, but eventually people will start picking holes in his leadership and personality.
Also, if Labour are still riding high in the polls towards and election, the Fianna Fail PR/rumour machine will go into overdrive.
Especially given the Democratic Left/Sticky element of the Labour party.
There will be plenty of mention of trips to Moscow, old acquaintances like Sean Garland, printing dollars etc,
An innuendo campaign manage to derail Adi Roche in the 1997 Presidential campaign where stores were put around of her being a bully. That said, in 1990 attempts by Pee Flynn to attack Mary Robinson's family life backfired.
Kenny has sacked Bruton.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0614/finegael.html
In Meath Mayo clashes there is only one winner. Bruton can feel confident.
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 07:20:45 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....
The thing will probably end in a draw.
think dis will end in a loss 4 both of dem. if bruten wins half da party will h8 him. if edna survives he is much weaker. time 4 a new young leader.
Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....
Enda himself is a bit more like a Mayo forward in the mid 80s. He has an open goal in front of him. He can't miss. Or can he?
Quote from: Turlough O Carolan on June 14, 2010, 09:41:24 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....
Enda himself is a bit more like a Mayo forward in the mid 80s. He has an open goal in front of him. He can't miss. Or can he?
Enda is of All-Ireland winning stock ;D
Does the Enda V Dick spat not deserve a thread on it's own?
I'm very surprised at this. I think Bruton has really let all the Government spin about Kenny get to his head. He has provided Kenny with perfect opportunity to 'be his own man'. I can see Bruton leaving this debacle with his tail between his legs and single handedly making Kenny look like a leader after all.
Quote from: Zapatista on June 14, 2010, 11:55:49 PM
Does the Enda V Dick spat not deserve a thread on it's own?
I'm very surprised at this. I think Bruton has really let all the Government spin about Kenny get to his head. He has provided Kenny with perfect opportunity to 'be his own man'. I can see Bruton leaving this debacle with his tail between his legs and single handedly making Kenny look like a leader after all.
Nah, can't agree, this had to be done if fg were to take control after the next election - you can talk about government spin all you want, but a general election and poll after poll showing that only die hard fg or mayo people had any faith in Kenny prove that the perception is that he's not up leading the country.
I'm also pretty confident that Bruton made his move when he was absolutely positive that the numbers will ensure his victory, the best thing for FG now is for Inda to go quietly, i'd be surprised if he's still there at the end of the week.
Ps: the next poll will show Bruton as the most popular FG leader ever and FG will take a big lead over both labour and FF - the typical new manager bounce (even biffo got one when he took over from the bert - anyone think bert has had a bit of plastic surgery - face lift etc, saw him on that PD show last night and he looked suspiciously expressionless)
Quote from: Bogball XV on June 15, 2010, 09:32:13 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on June 14, 2010, 11:55:49 PM
Does the Enda V Dick spat not deserve a thread on it's own?
I'm very surprised at this. I think Bruton has really let all the Government spin about Kenny get to his head. He has provided Kenny with perfect opportunity to 'be his own man'. I can see Bruton leaving this debacle with his tail between his legs and single handedly making Kenny look like a leader after all.
Nah, can't agree, this had to be done if fg were to take control after the next election - you can talk about government spin all you want, but a general election and poll after poll showing that only die hard fg or mayo people had any faith in Kenny prove that the perception is that he's not up leading the country.
I'm also pretty confident that Bruton made his move when he was absolutely positive that the numbers will ensure his victory, the best thing for FG now is for Inda to go quietly, i'd be surprised if he's still there at the end of the week.
Ps: the next poll will show Bruton as the most popular FG leader ever and FG will take a big lead over both labour and FF - the typical new manager bounce (even biffo got one when he took over from the bert - anyone think bert has had a bit of plastic surgery - face lift etc, saw him on that PD show last night and he looked suspiciously expressionless)
Well, I have been entirely wrong sofar judging from the commentary this morning. I'm bound to hit a purple patch soon :D
Quote from: Zapatista on June 15, 2010, 09:44:50 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on June 15, 2010, 09:32:13 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on June 14, 2010, 11:55:49 PM
Does the Enda V Dick spat not deserve a thread on it's own?
I'm very surprised at this. I think Bruton has really let all the Government spin about Kenny get to his head. He has provided Kenny with perfect opportunity to 'be his own man'. I can see Bruton leaving this debacle with his tail between his legs and single handedly making Kenny look like a leader after all.
Nah, can't agree, this had to be done if fg were to take control after the next election - you can talk about government spin all you want, but a general election and poll after poll showing that only die hard fg or mayo people had any faith in Kenny prove that the perception is that he's not up leading the country.
I'm also pretty confident that Bruton made his move when he was absolutely positive that the numbers will ensure his victory, the best thing for FG now is for Inda to go quietly, i'd be surprised if he's still there at the end of the week.
Ps: the next poll will show Bruton as the most popular FG leader ever and FG will take a big lead over both labour and FF - the typical new manager bounce (even biffo got one when he took over from the bert - anyone think bert has had a bit of plastic surgery - face lift etc, saw him on that PD show last night and he looked suspiciously expressionless)
Well, I have been entirely wrong sofar judging from the commentary this morning. I'm bound to hit a purple patch soon :D
World cup tips competition maybe?
Quote from: Ludraman on June 14, 2010, 09:08:51 PM
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 07:20:45 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 14, 2010, 05:48:45 PM
The Mayo man has got rid of the Meath man ;D
Revenge for 1996, and 1988 and 2009 and .....
The thing will probably end in a draw.
think dis will end in a loss 4 both of dem. if bruten wins half da party will h8 him. if edna survives he is much weaker. time 4 a new young leader.
It's beginning to look like how Jim Hacker became PM.
Enda Kenny now........ Brian Cowen next in line imo. Only thing saving Cowen now imo is the fact that Lenihan is unwell and his replacement would trigger an election.
Have to say that I am no Fine Gaeler but I don't think Enda Kenny is that bad...... just journos saying he is so and as a result becoming a lazy well touted norm.
Quote from: Canalman on June 15, 2010, 10:16:19 AM
Enda Kenny now........ Brian Cowen next in line imo. Only thing saving Cowen now imo is the fact that Lenihan is unwell and his replacement would trigger an election.
Have to say that I am no Fine Gaeler but I don't think Enda Kenny is that bad...... just journos saying he is so and as a result becoming a lazy well touted norm.
I'm no fine Gaeler either, but i think Kenny also did a good job turning the party around. I wonder does anyone feel that there is a trend running through all the coverage, Country politicans are gombeen men riding the expense gravy train and the hope of the nation lies with the Dublin politicans? i think Kenny will survive this heave today and Bruton has shot his load too soon, why didn't he hold fire until after the vote on Cowen today. Maybe somebody was whispering in his ear telling him what he wanted to hear.
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on June 15, 2010, 10:38:54 AM
Quote from: Canalman on June 15, 2010, 10:16:19 AM
Enda Kenny now........ Brian Cowen next in line imo. Only thing saving Cowen now imo is the fact that Lenihan is unwell and his replacement would trigger an election.
Have to say that I am no Fine Gaeler but I don't think Enda Kenny is that bad...... just journos saying he is so and as a result becoming a lazy well touted norm.
I'm no fine Gaeler either, but i think Kenny also did a good job turning the party around. I wonder does anyone feel that there is a trend running through all the coverage, Country politicans are gombeen men riding the expense gravy train and the hope of the nation lies with the Dublin politicans? i think Kenny will survive this heave today and Bruton has shot his load too soon, why didn't he hold fire until after the vote on Cowen today. Maybe somebody was whispering in his ear telling him what he wanted to hear.
It's missing the point, though, to be dwelling on the good job Kenny did for FG. It's neither here nor there in electoral terms. The electorate's perception that he's unelectable as Taoiseach is all that matters, however it was arrived at.
I'd be amazed if Bruton has screwed things up so badly as to mistime his run. If he has, then he's not the leader he purports to be. I have to think he's not just having a blind lash at it but has a detailed strategy in place, though the vehemence of some of the front bench opposition to his move is surprising, if that's the case.
it seems according to radio 1, that Kenny gave the front bench a bollocking and then walked out. According to the Irish Times journo on the show, Kenny is a dead man walking and that Bruton has been plotting this for a few months now. Thursday will be very interesting!
Kenny's toast, from the Irish Times:
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny is under increasing pressure today after nine members of his front bench said they had lost confidence in him.
Mr Kenny dissolved his front bench this morning, warning them that they would be dropped unless they supported him in his battle against former deputy Richard Bruton.
Mr Bruton is believed to be preparing to challenge Mr Kenny, who sacked him as deputy leader and finance spokesman yesterday, for the party leadership. His supporters claim that more than half the 19 front bench members are prepared to back him.
During a meeting of his shadow cabinet in Leinster House this morning, Mr Kenny reminded his colleagues it would be the last such gathering before he reshuffles his front bench next Monday.
Following this morning's meeting, nine front bench members came out to say they have no confidence in Mr Kenny's leadership. These comprise Simon Coveney, Michael Creed, Olwyn Enright, Brian Hayes, Olivia Mitchell, Denis Naughten, Fergus O'Dowd, Leo Varadkar and Billy Timmins.
Longford/Roscommon TD Mr Naughten said he believed the majority of the front bench did not support Mr Kenny and he believed this was the same throughout the parliamentary party. He called on Mr Kenny to withdraw his motion of confidence in himself, which is to be voted on by the party's 70 TDs, Senators and MEPs at a parliamentary party on Thursday. Voting on the motion of confidence in Mr Kenny will be by secret ballot.
Mr Kenny said today Thursday's meeting "was the only forum to decide the leadership of the party," and added that he looked forward to leading the party into the next general election. It is understood he walked out without giving opponents the chance to challenge his leadership.
Mr Kenny rang Mr Bruton yesterday afternoon to sack him after a number of phone conversations over the weekend and a face- to-face meeting on Sunday.
Mr Kenny's decision to pre-empt the move by sacking Mr Bruton surprised most of the leading figures in the party and has left his frontbench opponents with serious decisions to make about whether to persist in their determination to call on him to go.
Health spokesman Dr James Reilly said today he was confident a "substantial majority" of the parliamentary party backed Mr Kenny. "I firmly believe that when it goes to the parliamentary party, as it will, that Enda Kenny will carry the day."
Dr Reilly said he was "astonished that one opinion poll had caused such a wobble" in the party and claimed the party leader had no choice but to sack Mr Bruton. Speaking on RTÉ radio, he also said Mr Kenny was a leader of integrity but admitted he had difficulties expressing himself.
The four Fine Gael MEPs said today they will all back Mr Kenny in Thursday's vote of confidence.
Speaking on RTÉ, Gay Mitchell admitted there was discontent in the party over Mr Kenny's leadership. However, he said the party did not need such a diversion at this time.
Mr Mitchell said it should be the Government under pressure rather than Fine Gael.
I really don't think anyone will thank us for taking the heat off the Government at a time when they are at 17 per cent in the opinion polls. This is something we have been through before. It is something that is not necessary, is unhelpful and we need it like a hole in the head."
Kilkenny-based Senator John Paul Phelan, who has offered his backing for Mr Bruton, said he had "serious reservations" about Mr Kenny's leadership qualities. He said the decision of Mr Kenny to sack the former finance spokesman had led him to declare his support for Mr Bruton.
"I have the height of respect for Enda, he's done a lot for Fine Gael in my time over the last eight years, but there comes a juncture, I suppose, where you just have to say that the baton of leadership has to pass," he said.
"There has to be a recognition among everyone that at this current juncture in time we cannot ignore the general public and we can't ignore the membership of the party," he added. He said it was not sustainable that Mr Bruton, who he described as "the most capable politician in Ireland", would sit on the back benches.
Mr Kenny last night appointed Limerick TD Kieran O'Donnell as interim finance spokesman ahead of next week's reshuffle.
Mr Bruton last night appealed to his colleagues to put their loyalty to the Irish people above their loyalty to Mr Kenny and install him as their next leader. He strongly criticised Mr Kenny's leadership, saying he has been unable to convince the public that he could manage the country's economic problems.
"There are many opinion polls and ratings of his leadership and many occasions on which he has faltered at crucial times – and we do need people's confidence now," said Mr Bruton in an interview with RTÉ.
Throughout yesterday, party chief whip Paul Kehoe appealed to Mr Bruton to abandon his challenge. "It is political naivety and car crash politics," he maintained.
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 13, 2010, 02:40:26 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 13, 2010, 11:59:46 AM
This poll is the end of Enda Kenny.
Yip thats the big story not the end of FF ::)
Anything you'd like to say about this mayogodhelpus? Was I right?
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 15, 2010, 02:04:34 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 13, 2010, 02:40:26 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 13, 2010, 11:59:46 AM
This poll is the end of Enda Kenny.
Yip thats the big story not the end of FF ::)
Anything you'd like to say about this mayogodhelpus? Was I right?
Dont jump the gun like Bruton, wait til Thursday ! ;)
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 14, 2010, 05:15:52 PM
Quote from: Hardy on June 14, 2010, 05:03:02 PM
Sorry, but I don't buy it. Kenny as leader is an electoral liability and the major mine in the road to government for FG. Bruton is the darling of the floating voter and the only and obvious choice FG has to make to copper fasten the election win is to install him as leader.
Listen to the people. I'd be willing to bet that an opinion poll asking who do the people think would be the best Taoiseach, lets say in a national government, would result in 1. Bruton, 2. Lenihan. Or perhaps 1. Lenihan, 2. Bruton. Gilmore would be no. 3 in either case. Nobody else is at the races.
Nail on the head.
Opinion polls on leaders are misleading. Look at general elections who return Healy-Rae, Lowry, Flynn, Blaney, Cowley, Fox, the PDs, Greens, Labour, Sinn Fein, WP etc over the years.The people who voted for them weren't voting for the Taoiseach (naive voters accepted).
It is very hard to predict the outcome of this putsch but I suspect it could have handed Biffo an election he had no chance of winning. If I were him I'd dissolve the Dail today while FG are in chaos. The spin that Bruton has done this for the sake of the country will look like serious back-stabbing in a month and wont do him or his party any favours.
Labour should start some serious recruitment in rural constituencies.
Don't know muppet, I think perhaps you're being blinded by your mayo glasses - i can't think of any (non-mayo) person I've met and discussed politics with who thinks that Enda is capable, as Hardy points out, it's irrelevant if he is/was or not, the perception is that he wasn't. To lose the last election was extremely poor imo (i know fg trot out the figures showing the improvement, my bollox, he took them back to their historical norms after an awful showing in 02) and to continue to receive similar approval ratings to one of the most unpopular taoisigh of all time, shows that the public at large don't rate him. I'd be very surprised if Bruton isn't the next taoiseach, it'll be good for the country to see the old political establishment broken up with new blood to the fore, oh wait...
i'm not convinced about Bruton been the great white hope, Cowen has demolished him in the past on economic debates especially Prime Time a while back. Add this to the ineptitude and bad timing shown in this power grab, it doesn't bode well for the future. it was interesting today on the news at one, Naughton said that the next leader wasn't debated yet, there was only a motion of no confidence in Kenny so far. I wonder is there a new name going to go for leader after Thursday. There are a lot of ambitious young TDs in there. Leo, Olywn and Deasy for example.
Quote from: Bogball XV on June 15, 2010, 04:18:32 PM
Don't know muppet, I think perhaps you're being blinded by your mayo glasses - i can't think of any (non-mayo) person I've met and discussed politics with who thinks that Enda is capable, as Hardy points out, it's irrelevant if he is/was or not, the perception is that he wasn't. To lose the last election was extremely poor imo (i know fg trot out the figures showing the improvement, my bollox, he took them back to their historical norms after an awful showing in 02) and to continue to receive similar approval ratings to one of the most unpopular taoisigh of all time, shows that the public at large don't rate him. I'd be very surprised if Bruton isn't the next taoiseach, it'll be good for the country to see the old political establishment broken up with new blood to the fore, oh wait...
Question for you.
Imagine the shoe was on the other foot and and FF had FG on the ropes with the public baying for blood, bank reports coming out, dire unemployment figures etc, all the holes lining up in the proverbial Swiss cheese. Then imagine Lenihan or whoever launched a coup. Do you think he would win, or be strung up?
Elections are won at grass-roots in this country, regrettably, but that is the reality. Kenny did the work at grass-roots level which is why FG members see him in a way the country doesn't. Bruton doesn't have the grass-roots and neither did his brother.
Back to the question in the previous paragraph, the FF grass-roots IMHO would string him up for saving the enemy.
I'm now beginning to lean towards both of them having their careers Enda'd (sorry couldn't resist).
I don't think any of them will make a move yet, they'll show Bruton support though to make sure they land a nice job. The only one stupid enough to challenge could be Deasy, who, God love him, reckons he should be the next taoiseach.
As for timing etc, it might seem like an overreaction to a poll, but apparently this has been in motion for a while now, they decided the opinion poll was the opportunity to strike, the motion of no confidence in biffo was never in danger of winning, thus it was largely irrelevant. I heard Gormley on yesterday trying to talk up the stupidity of this move by FG and Bruton, so it can't be all bad, incidentally, has he made any comment on the untenable position the taoiseach should be in following on from last weeks reports?
Muppet, I see where you're coming from, but the govt aren't really on the ropes, the people may be baying for blood but, so what, seems to be the coalition attitude. We're heading to the summer break which is the ideal time for a new party leader to come in and re-organise the party, this was probably going to happen in the near future regardless of the poll.
The other thing to remember is that FF have their fair share of splits and leadership coups over the years, it's only really since Bertie the enforcer took over that they've settled down. People in politics are invariably power crazed and ambitious, why else would they be there (to serve the nation ;D ;D ;D ;D)?
Quote from: Bogball XV on June 15, 2010, 04:33:29 PM
I don't think any of them will make a move yet, they'll show Bruton support though to make sure they land a nice job. The only one stupid enough to challenge could be Deasy, who, God love him, reckons he should be the next taoiseach.
As for timing etc, it might seem like an overreaction to a poll, but apparently this has been in motion for a while now, they decided the opinion poll was the opportunity to strike, the motion of no confidence in biffo was never in danger of winning, thus it was largely irrelevant. I heard Gormley on yesterday trying to talk up the stupidity of this move by FG and Bruton, so it can't be all bad, incidentally, has he made any comment on the untenable position the taoiseach should be in following on from last weeks reports?
Did you expect him to expressl his awe at its brilliance?
This week the Government tried to limit questions in the Dail because of how badly they thought the bank reports would be received. There also have been dire unemployment figures announced, 12%, not that anyone noticed but they would have anticipated bad press at least on that.
They must have been giggling with glee as they watched this blunder unfold. Even the Sinners will be annoyed at how Saville wont get the press it deserves down south.
BTW as for Mayo tinted glasses I have lived in the constituencies of both men, I've met them both and they are both fine individuals. It doesn't change my opinion of either the strategy or the timing. For once I agree with Gormley.
Bruton had to make his move now. There was no way FG were going into the next general election with Enda Kenny in charge. It would too dangerous to let him up against Cowen for debate, even with all the cards, he could still lose!!! The last general election was up for grabs up until he went head to head with Bertie in the TV debate and lost (also the late late show patronising fawning over Bertie during the last week of the campaign was another factor)
He couldn't wait because you cannot change party leader one year out from an election as it smells like panic. See 2002 and FG for that.
I know the timing seems poor but the Government will hang together until the end, the MAD principle holds here. And there will soon be further reports, unemployment figures to bash the government with.
I think if they pick Bruton as leader and get another crediblt spokesperson on finance, they will be guaranteeing themselves in Government next time around. This blood letting will be forgotten by the elecorate in 6 months and there is plenty of time to highlight the new leader before the next election. Enda Kenny is a nice guy but lacks credibility and people will not vote for him as leader of this country.
Quote from: myball22 on June 15, 2010, 04:58:05 PM
Bruton had to make his move now. There was no way FG were going into the next general election with Enda Kenny in charge. It would too dangerous to let him up against Cowen for debate, even with all the cards, he could still lose!!! The last general election was up for grabs up until he went head to head with Bertie in the TV debate and lost (also the late late show patronising fawning over Bertie during the last week of the campaign was another factor)
He couldn't wait because you cannot change party leader one year out from an election as it smells like panic. See 2002 and FG for that.
I know the timing seems poor but the Government will hang together until the end, the MAD principle holds here. And there will soon be further reports, unemployment figures to bash the government with.
I think if they pick Bruton as leader and get another crediblt spokesperson on finance, they will be guaranteeing themselves in Government next time around. This blood letting will be forgotten by the elecorate in 6 months and there is plenty of time to highlight the new leader before the next election. Enda Kenny is a nice guy but lacks credibility and people will not vote for him as leader of this country.
Are you kidding? The FF media will remind us of it every day till then and destroy him as they did his brother, DuKes, Noonan and Kenny. And Richard will have helped them by giving them a bigger stick to beat him than they had with Kenny. Kenny may not survive without Bruton but Bruton is history after this.
Open the book on the next man.
Hey Barelegs, any chance you could change the title of this thread as the momentum has changed.
Might I suggest:
Et tu, Brute?
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on June 15, 2010, 02:39:00 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 15, 2010, 02:04:34 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 13, 2010, 02:40:26 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 13, 2010, 11:59:46 AM
This poll is the end of Enda Kenny.
Yip thats the big story not the end of FF ::)
Anything you'd like to say about this mayogodhelpus? Was I right?
Dont jump the gun like Bruton, wait til Thursday ! ;)
:D
Gilmore must be some man, Fine Gaels self-destruction and Fianna Fails freefall all fall under Gilmore for Taoiseach.
All I say last non-Leinster Taoiseach - Jack Lynch (not that Charlie prat >:( ) Those Dubs/Leinster lot are the real Gombeen man I'm all right Jack crowd.
Actually I lied (seriously I'm not a FF in disguise) I have more to say. In my opinion Richard Bruton has done a great disservice to the Fine Gael party by his actions. Muppet is right and the grassroots Fine Gaelers support Enda ahead of Bruton and there is lots of anger and not just here in the Green & Red & Blue ;) I see Enda winning on Thursday but he could be seriously damaged by this. Richard if he loses will lose his place as the natural heir. I'm glad in away that this has liberated me to say I have always thought that Lucinda Creighton was a useless self-serving waste of space. Oh Deasy if its illegal to smoke in the Dail bar to smoke then its illegal, feck of to Fianna Fail if ya want to be a gombeen. I think Bruton is incredibly naive, if he becomes FG leader, roll on Fianna Fail spin about how much better the party was under a proven election winning and TD gaining leader under Kenny, lads ye where stupid to dump him. On the other side I see him getting an easier ride as he is a Leinsterman and an almost Dub. Gilmore (well the thread is about Gilmore) will start getting asked to answer questions instead of Bertesque populism and getting attacked for his West of the Shannon roots (obviously not overtly) once the Irish media actually see him as a credible Taoiseach. They do not see him as such, otherwise Fianna Fail New Irish Press Org of Ryan Tubridy, Joe Duffy, Brendan O'Conner, Eoin Harris, Ray D'Arcy, Irish Independent, RTE would be tearing him apart. They still see a badly wounded Enda Kenny and an on very dangerous ground Richard Bruton way ahead him as likely next Taoiseach. Even a Fine Gael party suffering from multiple gunshot wounds will always be a more credible leader of any Irish government than the fittest of Labour parties or their jingoistic leaders.
Quote from: muppet on June 15, 2010, 06:25:01 PM
Hey Barelegs, any chance you could change the title of this thread as the momentum has changed.
Might I suggest:
Et tu, Brute?
Richard Iscariot
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 15, 2010, 08:06:15 PM
.
All I say last non-Leinster Taoiseach - Jack Lynch .
Albert was a Ros man. ;)
The prize for chump of the year must surely go to Richard Bruton, for an astounding piece of political mismanagement. He has displayed his complete ineptness to lead a party, never mind a country. Sure he has spitefully damaged Kenny, but he has damaged his party even more
Odd though it sounds, I actually think that this has the potential to be exactly what this country needs. As far as I can make out, much more important than who holds what ministry in late 2012 is the removal of the cancer that is the current Fianna Fáil modus operandi from Irish politics. I hate that they have succeeded in convincing the country that parish pump stuff is the way to go, I abhor that they seem to have convinced everyone that charisma and likeability is more important than competence and honesty and above all, I fear for the fact that if things went on as they are, they would be right back in within a few years.
My view, for the little it's worth, is this.....
(1) FG and Labour are a marriage of convenience - in the same way that me marrying my next door neighbour would be convenient, except that I have no idea what language he speaks and I'm not particularly inclined towards guys. The basis would be simply a united sense of being "Not FF". Politically, they are diametrically opposed, and there is no way that the FG agenda and the Labour agenda could possibly co-exist. Even if they had 110 seats between them and FF were down around 30, it would be a recipe for FF to resurrect within three years, perpetuating their belief that they are the "natural party of government" operating the same way as they always have done. They would simply give out about everything from the opposition benches and slowly pretend that it was all the new govt's fault.
(2) For the above reason, we need a FG single party government next time, with Labour becoming the opposition. That way FF can be left in the cold for a matter of two terms or more, which cuts their main oxygen source - that being favours and jobs for the boys. Without patronage, they are nothing.
(3) Following on from that, Enda has rebuilt the FG machine, but much like in the US presidential elections, to get the nomination, you have to appeal to your own base - which means going left or right, depending on which side you're on. To actually win the race, you have to capture the middle. Enda is safe, traditional FG and I think he would have been a fine leader, but the fact remains that while he appeals to FG people, the simple fact is that to others, he doesn't. I'm driven demented by people saying the same thing "I just couldn't vote for him" and when asked why "I don't know". We are a nation of idiots in that sense, but it is how it is. Enda has built the foundations, but to get the neutrals over the line, someone else must take over. I hope Richard Bruton can be that guy and I suspect he might.
Just to clarify, I am not FG, merely someone who feels that FF must be wiped out or as near as we can do it. Their polling 20% scares me - who are these 1 in 5 people who think that they are still capable? I mean seriously????
I don't care who's in charge as long as we do all we can towards that - and sadly for that, Enda has to go. I feel sorry for him since he has done nothing wrong except suffer at the hands of the FF spin machine, but you have to play the cards you're dealt and that's what's happening now.
My thoughts exactly Lone Shark
Well covered Lone Shark
Goddam loneshark, you speak purtier than a 20 dollar whore ;)
Political 'machines' are the antithesis of democracy, and in the Irish context, are what has us the way we are.
Watch out for a "compromise" leader in FG next. Coveney, Enright, English etc etc. Young, Cameronesque, sans baggage might be what FG go for.
Just think that Richard Bruton wil be tainted as a "backstabber". I accept that the Greystones/ Mayo and Golden Vale big farmer types will love Bruton but I don't think he has wide enough appeal to trounce FF.
I think that's a possibility, but I hope they don't. The next leader needs to be someone earnest and genuine - which Bruton is.A polished young thing spun to within an inch of their lives simply wouldn't make an impact to the same degree at all.
Also, how many of ye would play a game of football without at least giving thought to how your opponents are going to play? The only card FF have left is "experience". Experience of failure it may be, but that's what they'll play. You have to mark that threat.
We need a Lemass/Whittaker combination, not f*cking Jim Hacker.
Spot on analysis, Lone Shark.
By the way, those who say Bruton mistimed his challenge may be off the mark. Some reports are saying that it was Inda who forced the issue by contacting Bruton at the weekend and demanding a public statement of support from him. Bruton couldn't do that and so the situation was forced.
It certainly doesn't seem to make sense that Bruton would have chosen this week as the optimum time for his move. Inda('s handlers) may have been quite clever in choosing this moment to force the issue as it gave him the best chance to portray Brtuton as the traitor in the party's hour of need, etc.
I actually hope Kenny wins and am beginning to suspect he might. A pity then that he will be shorn of some talented people who rebelled needlessly. Bruton would be no more appealing a leader than Kenny. The real test of FG will be when peoples minds are focussed during an election campaign. That's when Labour will be found out and only a disastrous campaign from FG could mess things up for them.
Whether people like it or not there is a huge anti-Kenny media spin because of where he is from. If he defeats this challenge it could be the making of him.
Turning decisively for Bruton in the last few hours?
Quote from: Canalman on June 16, 2010, 10:24:39 AM
Watch out for a "compromise" leader in FG next. Coveney, Enright, English etc etc. Young, Cameronesque, sans baggage might be what FG go for.
Just think that Richard Bruton wil be tainted as a "backstabber". I accept that the Greystones/ Mayo and Golden Vale big farmer types will love Bruton but I don't think he has wide enough appeal to trounce FF.
I think you are a quare few kilometres of the mark there on Mayo folk Canalman, the knives will be out for a long time to come for him here and among Fine Gaelers in Connacht in general. I was talking to a friend down in West Cork and Bruton may have crossed the line for them too in the Rebel county.
By the way Hardy, his name is Enda, nobody over here including himself calls him Inda, typical Eastern seaboard crappy Mayo accent. Stop using Mirraim Lord the stupid mare as a source of information.
Personaly I hope that Dublin doesn't get its Taoiseach, I trust them as little as they do us, they thought Bertie was a God ffs. This isn't a Parishpumb view its just I would like someone outside the Dublin commuter belt for a change, someone who will solve Ireland's problems not a glorified Mayor of Greater Dublin.
Yes Magpie Seanie, a lot of the medias problems with Enda is because he is from Mayo.
Another factor as long as RTE is not challenge for its pro-FF bias the longer Ireland will fester in the sewer of Failer deference.
Ryan Tubridy is a dangerous influnce as the presenter of the Late Late Show and now he takes over Gerry Ryans old slot, Tubridy by the way is a former member of Ogra Fianna Fail and he is related to the Andrews as well as many other current and former prominent FF's.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/take-me-out-tubridy-tells-snappy-cousin-127371.html?start=2 (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/take-me-out-tubridy-tells-snappy-cousin-127371.html?start=2)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%93gra_Fianna_F%C3%A1il (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%93gra_Fianna_F%C3%A1il)
Ray D'Arcy is another FF fanatic & Brendan O'Connor is another FF songbird.
Of course Eoin Harris gets a Seanatorship for his "Lower Mount St calling, Lower Mount St calling" contributions.
We all know the Irish Independents leanings.
I'm hearing Kenny is going to win from a very anti-Kenny FG person.
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 16, 2010, 04:58:11 PM
By the way Hardy, his name is Enda, nobody over here including himself calls him Inda, typical Eastern seaboard crappy Mayo accent.
Nearly everybody over there calls him that. At least that's how it sounds to my ear. Isn't diversity great. Be proud of your accent and stop cringing in front of us "Eastern seaboarders" (and FFers and Irish Times journalists and RTÉ people and Ryan Tubridy and Eoghan Harris and Brendan O'Connor and Miriam Lord and Ray D'Arcy !!! and Richard Bruton and ...). How do you manage to keep track of all your bugbears?
Just as a matter of interest, why do you (and so many Mayo/Connacht people) feel the need to turn the FG leadership contest into a Connacht v. the world debate? I haven't heard anyone from Meath suggest that any opposition to Bruton or unfavourable comment on him is because he's from Meath.
Lose the paranoia.
Quote from: Hardy on June 16, 2010, 05:32:30 PM
Just as a matter of interest, why do you (and so many Mayo/Connacht people) feel the need to turn the FG leadership contest into a MayoConnachtv. the world debate?
Lose the paranoia.
Ahh sure the poor devils have to have something to keep them goin these days :-*
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 16, 2010, 05:11:38 PM
I'm hearing Kenny is going to win from a very anti-Kenny FG person.
Nice succinct post as always Lone Shark.
Our metropolitan media crave Dublin-centric leaders, this doesn't go down very will in the rest (read vast majority) of the constituencies. As a result the 'vote for me an' I'll sort out them feckers up in Dublin' ticket works all too well in these areas and we get a parliament full of gombeens. Their objective, rather than governing or representing us, seems to be to extract as much money for themselves and their cronies (Health Boards nominees, VEC Board Nominees, County/Urban Councils, School Boards, Semi-State Boards etc and their very lucrative expenses). [I am aware of a man who sat on 3 such boards/committees at the same time which met in the same town, often on the same day, and he claimed expenses for round trips for each of them]
We get what we deserve.
I am beginning to hope now that Fine Gael completely implode. The shock of facing another 7 years of 'Fianna Fail unchecked 'might waken people up. Gilmore might actually have to move from his tabloid talk comfort zone to avoid a collapse of our political system which might actually be the best thing that could happen.
QuoteJust as a matter of interest, why do you (and so many Mayo/Connacht people) feel the need to turn the FG leadership contest into a Connacht v. the world debate? I haven't heard anyone from Meath suggest that any opposition to Bruton or unfavourable comment on him is because he's from Meath.
Perhaps they feel that such an attitude has worked well for Ulster folk.
Quote from: Billys Boots on June 17, 2010, 09:21:53 AM
QuoteJust as a matter of interest, why do you (and so many Mayo/Connacht people) feel the need to turn the FG leadership contest into a Connacht v. the world debate? I haven't heard anyone from Meath suggest that any opposition to Bruton or unfavourable comment on him is because he's from Meath.
Perhaps they feel that such an attitude has worked well for Ulster folk.
well we managed a president out of it, although connacht will probably try and claim her on ancestral grounds. And as for big gerry, well, he hasn't gone away, except he sorta has i suppose.
Perhaps Connacht people feel that they haven't got their fair share from successive governments over the decades and are a bit pissed off about it. Mad notion I know.
Seanie - with respect and with reference to Lone Sharks excellent summation of the ills of Irish politics, I think that's part of the problem. People seem to think that politics is about getting your share of the goodies. And I may be wrong, but Connacht people seem to me to think that more than most.
If Connacht people want to conduct the FG leadership debate on the basis of a pro-Connacht bias and anticipated favourable distribution of goodies for Connacht, then they can't have it both ways by complaining about a perceived anti-Connacht bias on the part of everyone else.
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 17, 2010, 10:49:23 AM
Perhaps Connacht people feel that they haven't got their fair share from successive governments over the decades and are a bit pissed off about it. Mad notion I know.
The debate about whether the western seaboard is over funded or under serviced is a big one which it would probably serve this thread well not to get into, but just out of curiosity, I wonder do the people out west ever consider that possibility the cause of the problem, as opposed to the solution, is their constant resorting to sleeveen stroke types who get elected on the basis of sticking it to them lads up in Dublin.
It's all very well when you win the Independent lottery and your local yahoo suddenly finds himself as the casting vote in a tight situation, a la Jackie Healy Rae, but even then you get a lot more small sweets but still no say at the important meetings where the real decisions are made. You get a lot of new extensions to schools and potholes filled in, but has JHR managed to get any real new sustainable employment out to South Kerry?
Electing lads on the basis of shoving up the holes of "the D4 meedja" is a failed strategy and the people of the western seaboard, and rural Ireland in general, might do well to rethink a strategy. Decisions are made at cabinet level - rather than electing muppets and then complaining that there's no one from out west in power (or worse, someone like O'Cuiv, who's in there out of tokenism and nepotism and couldn't give a flying shi'ite about anyone who's not in Galway west) how about actually looking at your list of candidates and asking if you would be happy for that person to have an important ministry - in many cases, due to the lack of talent out the sticks, that person will get it sooner rather than later.
I accept that this is a long way away from the Enda debate, since in fairness he'd be a perfectly good minister I reckon, however it's hard to blame some people from tarring all western TD's with the one brush when you see some of the clowns that have been sent back.
(I accept that there have been plenty of Callelys, Jacobs, Foxes, Burkes, Kirks and general Twerps from out east as well, but nothing like as high a ratio)
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 17, 2010, 10:49:23 AM
Perhaps Connacht people feel that they haven't got their fair share from successive governments over the decades and are a bit pissed off about it. Mad notion I know.
I sympathise and agree with you, but it's not a reason for promoting yet another overblown schoolteacher to leader of the country (beats an account clerk from a hospital all the same).
The talk on politics.ie is that kenny may survive, but that the majority of FG td's will vote against him, i'd be shocked if he survives for much longer on the foot of such a victory, although, I'd also be surprised if he survives at all today.
Quote from: Lone Shark on June 17, 2010, 11:24:34 AM
I accept that this is a long way away from the Enda debate, since in fairness he'd be a perfectly good minister I reckon,
I'd be happy enough to see him as a minister, is he jeopardising his chances of this by clinging on and forcing a battle over this?
I suppose he sort of has to try and fight as it's likely whoever leads FG will be next taoiseach, it's just that if it's Bruton, it's also likely he'll have more power, hmm, maybe I'd prefer Kenny to stay on, but that leaves the option that they might actually lose the next election to FF.
It's beginning to look as if Bruton and/or his advisers have made a right horlicks of the whole thing anyway. It may be, as I mentioned before, that Kenny forced their hand, but to go into a leadership contest without being sure of your numbers, as they seem to be doing, seems an awful slapdash approach and not what might be expected of the man they want to put forward as the brains to lead us out of the abyss.
Also, the whole conduct of the debate has to be immensely damaging to FG. Why are they conducting it in the media, with representatives of both sides lining up on every current affairs programme to slug it out and slag each other in public? Madness. The electorate is the parliamentary party. There's no need for election broadcasts. Why are they not keeping their mouths shut until it's over? And these are the people who want us to trust them to be clever, innovative, united in a common mission, etc?
Quote from: Hardy on June 17, 2010, 11:21:25 AM
Seanie - with respect and with reference to Lone Sharks excellent summation of the ills of Irish politics, I think that's part of the problem. People seem to think that politics is about getting your share of the goodies. And I may be wrong, but Connacht people seem to me to think that more than most.
If Connacht people want to conduct the FG leadership debate on the basis of a pro-Connacht bias and anticipated favourable distribution of goodies for Connacht, then they can't have it both ways by complaining about a perceived anti-Connacht bias on the part of everyone else.
Said quicker and better than I managed.
I will accept that a proportion of any constituency electorate hope for a Minister of some sort to help solve the ills of their locality, that is part of the problem for the country as a whole. It is a major part of the reason that the Dublin/Eastern Seaboard electorate does not want THEIR Taoiseach too far from the kitchen door. I do believe however this is not the reasoning being used by the vast majority of Connacht and Western contributors here. We may have the same trust issues with the so called well oiled politicians who swarm around the hornets nest. We have seen where the Berties, Charlies, Cowans of this World has got us. I think a lot of Connacht people would see a Connacht or Western Taoiseach as likely to consider us before the removal of services rather than by a sort of freebie ice-cream vendor.
Connacht first for the cuts, last for the roads.
(Still want our fckn gas though)
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 17, 2010, 12:05:46 PM
I will accept that a proportion of any constituency electorate hope for a Minister of some sort to help solve the ills of their locality, that is part of the problem for the country as a whole. It is a major part of the reason that the Dublin/Eastern Seaboard electorate does not want THEIR Taoiseach too far from the kitchen door. I do believe however this is not the reasoning being used by the vast majority of Connacht and Western contributors here. We may have the same trust issues with the so called well oiled politicians who swarm around the hornets nest. We have seen where the Berties, Charlies, Cowans of this World has got us. I think a lot of Connacht people would see a Connacht or Western Taoiseach as likely to consider us before the removal of services rather than by a sort of freebie ice-cream vendor
Connacht first for the cuts, last for the roads.
(Still want our fckn gas though)
Last for the roads, now that reminds me of someone - Pee Flynn anybody? A shining example of western power - i'm not for a minute tarring enda with that brush, it was just to highlight that all westerners aren't exactly selfless knights in shining armour
Quote from: Bogball XV on June 17, 2010, 12:16:09 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on June 17, 2010, 12:05:46 PM
I will accept that a proportion of any constituency electorate hope for a Minister of some sort to help solve the ills of their locality, that is part of the problem for the country as a whole. It is a major part of the reason that the Dublin/Eastern Seaboard electorate does not want THEIR Taoiseach too far from the kitchen door. I do believe however this is not the reasoning being used by the vast majority of Connacht and Western contributors here. We may have the same trust issues with the so called well oiled politicians who swarm around the hornets nest. We have seen where the Berties, Charlies, Cowans of this World has got us. I think a lot of Connacht people would see a Connacht or Western Taoiseach as likely to consider us before the removal of services rather than by a sort of freebie ice-cream vendor
Connacht first for the cuts, last for the roads.
(Still want our fckn gas though)
Last for the roads, now that reminds me of someone - Pee Flynn anybody? A shining example of western power - i'm not for a minute tarring enda with that brush, it was just to highlight that all westerners aren't exactly selfless knights in shining armour
Jaysus I shake with anger when I hear that feckers name. You ignored the first part of that sentence Bogball, we are generally first for the cuts. You wouldn't want to be to far from Galway or Letterkenny if you get struck down with cancer, taking even longer to get to either on our crap roads. It takes well over an hour for Belmullet people to get to Castlebar alone never mind at least an another 1 & half (2 & half at busy times) to get to Galway.
A Cavan friend of mine use compare Mayo & Ulsters relationship when it comes to complaining to that of Kerry & Ulsters in football. Mayo are the kingpins of complaining without a shadow of a doubht, but they resent (managing to moan about moaning) the Peace Process in Ulster since the 1990's allowing the Nordies to overshadow the Heather County at times. The last time the Ulsterfolk challenged Mayos reign was back in the 1960's.
Funny the way this thread has gone, from the heading to this Mayo v everyone else...
I agree we shouldn't get into it here and now but I don't completely agree with Hardy or Lone Sharks analysis. I think though that its fair to say that when we went looking for more money from the EU they (and our own government) agreed that certain regions hadn't received a fair crack of the whip.
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 17, 2010, 02:23:09 PM
I agree we shouldn't get into it here and now but I don't completely agree with Hardy or Lone Sharks analysis. I think though that its fair to say that when we went looking for more money from the EU they (and our own government) agreed that certain regions hadn't received a fair crack of the whip.
Would a fairer way of putting not be that the BMW region was seen as needing help to get up to speed? I don't recall any analysis that said it had been discriminated against in the past.
Quote from: Lone Shark on June 17, 2010, 02:31:01 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 17, 2010, 02:23:09 PM
I agree we shouldn't get into it here and now but I don't completely agree with Hardy or Lone Sharks analysis. I think though that its fair to say that when we went looking for more money from the EU they (and our own government) agreed that certain regions hadn't received a fair crack of the whip.
Would a fairer way of putting not be that the BMW region was seen as needing help to get up to speed? I don't recall any analysis that said it had been discriminated against in the past.
Yeah ok but its Mickey v. Michael in my eyes. Closing down units in hospitals and half doing train lines seems to be how to get things up to speed these days.
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 17, 2010, 04:03:20 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on June 17, 2010, 02:31:01 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 17, 2010, 02:23:09 PM
I agree we shouldn't get into it here and now but I don't completely agree with Hardy or Lone Sharks analysis. I think though that its fair to say that when we went looking for more money from the EU they (and our own government) agreed that certain regions hadn't received a fair crack of the whip.
Would a fairer way of putting not be that the BMW region was seen as needing help to get up to speed? I don't recall any analysis that said it had been discriminated against in the past.
Yeah ok but its Mickey v. Michael in my eyes. Closing down units in hospitals and half doing train lines seems to be how to get things up to speed these days.
Shutting down both Castlebar and Sligo cancer care units is lunacy, it left a huge geographic area with poor roads and terrible public transport so far from the so called centres of excellence.
I often hear the argument that the East is the Wealth generating engine of the country, but from where I'm looking it appears to be the Debt generating engine of the country. Perhaps as in the good times when the West did not reap the benefits of the Celtic Tiger, maybe the West should not be expected to bail out the bankers.
Kenny wins 39-33
Is that it for him??
Quote from: Bogball XV on June 17, 2010, 04:49:41 PM
Kenny wins 39-33
Is that it for him??
Definitely it for Bruton. An astonishing blunder.
Ironically Kenny has looked far more like a leader in the last 3 days than he had for 7 years.
As a non- fine Gaeler, i'm delighted for Kenny, It serves all the judas bastards who Kenny put in key positions right. Well done Kenny, Show the same fighting spirit over the next 12 months as you did in the past week and the doubters will be silenced. As for Bruton and his in the main Leinster crew, enjoy the view from the backbenches. Talk about a mis-timed and ill-judged decision from the so called "great white hope".
I could see a very 'Western' Fine Gael frontbench now.
How about:
John O'Mahony for deputy leader and Michael Ring to be the new Mayo manager?
I'd say Michael Ring might be a better GAA manager right enough!
As I said - a Ros man.
i know... just clarifying it... as i know ones who are proud of that fact!
Quote from: muppet on June 17, 2010, 05:10:10 PM
I could see a very 'Western' Fine Gael frontbench now.
How about:
John O'Mahony for deputy leader and Michael Ring to be the new Mayo manager?
Trevor M would be killed out going to all the funerals with him!!!! :D