Georgia/Russia

[Rav67]

I can see why Russia are threatened by the whole Poland/US missile thing.  They are quickly becoming surrounded by hostile states and the US is fostering an anti-Russian agenda among its allies, I can't imagine the Yanks being fine with China or Russia stationing a defence missile system in Cuba.

[Hardy]

Indeed. Shades of 1962. I can't believe the Americans forget their history enough to pull a stunt like this.

[muppet]

Indeed. Shades of 1962. I can't believe the Americans forget their history enough to pull a stunt like this.

It is election year and the pinkos have a darkie leading in the polls. World War might be worth it to win an election to some.

The parallels with Cuba are scary, the big difference being the intelligence and nous of both sides then to find a mutually acceptable way out.

The problem now is the current administration have neither the wit nor intelligence to even look for a way out.

The Poles are shitless for a very good reason. Let's pray someone manages to educate Cheney and co as to why.   

[DrinkingHarp]

Russia's propaganda warfare 

By William Horsley
European affairs analyst 


Western leaders face two fronts in their stand-off with Russia over its use of force to re-draw borders in Europe: one is the Russian army on the ground. The other is a propaganda war.


Russia's defence of its intervention has not always been convincing
So far, the West has failed to spell out a common response, to get Russia to end its occupation of large parts of Georgia and undo its recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Meanwhile, Russia has unleashed a propaganda barrage against an "aggressive" Nato alliance, drawing sharp ripostes from western leaders.

President Dmitry Medvedev, who came to office with overtures to the West, now warns of a "crushing response" to any other country that threatens the lives or dignity of Russian nationals. He is "not afraid of a new Cold War", he adds.

Inconsistencies

This war of words is not just a diversionary tactic.

The statements of Russian leaders reveal an underlying strategy which suggests that the West is right to see dangers ahead from the actions of a belligerent Russia.

  This catalogue of feints and deceptions has hardened international opinion towards Russia


But those same statements also show glaring inconsistencies which belie Russia's apparently strong hand.

The Russians' strongest argument in defence of its armed intervention is that blame for the outbreak of a shooting war is shared.

Most observers agree it is, and that Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili acted rashly or wrongly in ordering his army to bombard and take the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali.

He was wrong, too, to speak of Russia "exterminating" his nation.

But in many other ways, Russia's defence of its armed intervention has been found wanting or false.

Russia's official charges of "genocide" by Georgian forces against the South Ossetians were quickly discredited by Human Rights Watch.

Broken promises

Moscow's South Ossetian allies still claim that nearly 1,700 people died in the Georgian assault but evidence has yet to be produced.

Moscow's repeated promises to withdraw its forces as prescribed in the French-brokered ceasefire plan have been broken in many parts of Georgia.

 


Meeting Russia's 'Number One'
Testing for a new 'Cold War'
Miliband warns over Russia crisis

That is what prompted the European Union and Nato to accuse Moscow of breaking international law, and breaking its word.

Mr Medvedev argued that Russia had been forced to use force to protect its own nationals in South Ossetia.

But Russia has deliberately engineered that situation by handing out Russian passports to large numbers of local inhabitants.

Sweden's normally soft-spoken Foreign Minister Carl Bildt retorted that Russia's resort to that argument echoed that of Hitler in annexing pre-World War Two Czechoslovakia.

Finally, Russia's claim that its motive in Georgia was purely humanitarian was exploded by this week's decision to recognise the independence of the two breakaway regions.

This catalogue of feints and deceptions has hardened international opinion towards Russia to the point where the West is undertaking an overall review of ties with Moscow - something scarcely imaginable only a month ago.

The acute international alarm regarding Russia stems from the offensive part of its concerted campaign to send messages of varying degrees of threat to other countries.

Strategic target

Dmitry Medvedev's hint that Russia might feel justified to intervene on behalf even of Russians living in other states brought a defiant show of solidarity from the leaders of Ukraine, Poland and the three Baltic states as well as Georgia.


The fall-out from the Georgia conflict may prove disastrous for Russia

A senior Russian commander explicitly threatened Poland - saying it made itself "100%" into a Russian strategic target - after the Poles signed an agreement with the US to station American troops and missile defence shield interceptors on its soil.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin castigated the western media for what he called their consistently anti-Russian reporting of the Georgia conflict.

But in Europe's free and diverse media Russia's side of the story is regularly reported in detail, and views critical of the US over Iraq and Kosovo are commonplace.

In Russia, by contrast, the most influential medium of TV is heavily slanted to favour the Kremlin's line.

Catastrophic

Russia's plea for understanding is undermined by its various punitive actions over recent years against nearly all of its neighbours to its west, from cutting the flow of gas to Ukraine to alleged cyber-attacks against Estonia.

Russia does indeed have friends in the West who are inclined to take a lenient stance now - Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi for one, who once put himself forward as Vladimir Putin's "defence lawyer".

But the real international fallout from Georgia is proving little short of catastrophic for Russia.

By its actions it has put at risk its privileged position within the G8, and earned the clear condemnation of Europe's two major international institutions devoted to building democracy and peace - the Council of Europe and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

A way out for Russia lies in the precise pledge made by Mr Medvedev when he became president of Russia only three months ago - that he would strive to make Russia a nation that truly respects the rule of law and international norms.

Otherwise Russia could be undone by its own myths, and be isolated in the new Cold War that its leaders still say they do not seek.

[Pangurban]

When the West recognised Kosovo they opened the door to redrawing of national boundaries in accordance with ethnicity. Russia repeatedly warned that this would happen, but were ignored. The criminal government of Georgia, whose foreign minister holds an Israeli passport, attacked S.Ossetia killing Russian peacekeepers who were there under a U.N. mandate. The facts are irrefutable, and no amount of American spin-doctoring will change them. As for Russias aggressive intentions, thats laughable coming from a western alliance which is currently conducting imperialist wars over a large part of the globe

[puskas]

Pangurban, your anti-Americanism and 'anti-imperialism' has you so blinkered on this one to the point it's not worth arguing with you. I trust you'll be looking forward now to Russia organising independence referenda in Chechnya, Dagestan and the other regions not entirely happy being under the Russian yoke. Irrefutable facts, right. That would be like the 2000 people Russia claimed were killed in S. Ossetia. Still waiting for the evidence on that one.

[muppet]

Sweden's normally soft-spoken Foreign Minister Carl Bildt retorted that Russia's resort to that argument echoed that of Hitler in annexing pre-World War Two Czechoslovakia.

What is rarely mentioned is that between the wars Poland tried to annexe part of the old Czechoslovakia (Selesia) on exactly the same grounds as Hitler used to annexe Poland and other countries. We are taught Hilter = bad, everyone else = good. While I have no problem with the first one the second is almost never the case.

The spin and propaganda mercharts always try to cast the relevant parties as hero (US) and villain (pesky Russkies). The reality here is that the Russians have tried to turn this situation to their advantage and have behaved poorly. However the US have done exactly the same thing. Their assumption of the high moral ground is disgusting.

All the usual pathetic lapdogs for the US such as Britain, 99% of western media, Sarkozy and Barroso are towing the party line as can be seen in the article posted by DrinkingHarp .

It is not another cold war that worries me, it is a hot one.

[dec]

Kremlin announces that South Ossetia will join 'one united Russian state'

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4635843.ece

The Kremlin moved swiftly to tighten its grip on Georgia's breakaway regions yesterday as South Ossetia announced that it would soon become part of Russia, which will open military bases in the province under an agreement to be signed on Tuesday.

Tarzan Kokoity, the province's Deputy Speaker of parliament, announced that South Ossetia would be absorbed into Russia soon so that its people could live in "one united Russian state" with their ethnic kin in North Ossetia.

The declaration came only three days after Russia defied international criticism and recognised South Ossetia and Georgia's other separatist region of Abkhazia as independent states. Eduard Kokoity, South Ossetia's leader, agreed that it would form part of Russia within "several years" during talks with Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian President, in Moscow...

[Mentalman]

Kremlin announces that South Ossetia will join 'one united Russian state'

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4635843.ece

The Kremlin moved swiftly to tighten its grip on Georgia's breakaway regions yesterday as South Ossetia announced that it would soon become part of Russia, which will open military bases in the province under an agreement to be signed on Tuesday.

Tarzan Kokoity, the province's Deputy Speaker of parliament, announced that South Ossetia would be absorbed into Russia soon so that its people could live in "one united Russian state" with their ethnic kin in North Ossetia.

The declaration came only three days after Russia defied international criticism and recognised South Ossetia and Georgia's other separatist region of Abkhazia as independent states. Eduard Kokoity, South Ossetia's leader, agreed that it would form part of Russia within "several years" during talks with Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian President, in Moscow...

I'd say those countries bordering Russia with sizable Russian passport holding ethnic minorities are crapping themselves - Ukraine, Poland and Latvia in Europe, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in Asia. We've already seen the bullyboy tactics in Estonia last year, all because they dared to remove a Russian war memorial. But sure Russia must be right, because they are not America or Britain. Plus they are not mere puppets being manipulated by oil men....oh hold on there....

[Mentalman]

New Russian world order: the five principles

In the aftermath of the Georgian conflict, the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has laid down five principles that he says will guide Russian foreign policy.

The new Moscow rules are not a blueprint for a new "Cold War". That was a worldwide ideological and economic struggle. This is much more about defending national interests.

Going back to the 19th Century?

The principles, with their references to "privileged interests" and the protection of Russian citizens, would probably seem rather obvious to Russian leaders of the 19th Century. They would seem rather mild to Stalin and his successors, who saw the Soviet Union extending communism across the globe.

In some ways, we are going back to the century before last, with a nationalistic Russia very much looking out for its own interests, but open to co-operation with the outside world on issues where it is willing to be flexible.

President Medvedev's principles do not, for example, necessarily exclude Russian agreement to continuing the strong diplomatic stance against Iran. And energy contracts are not necessarily threatened.

Above all, what they tell us is that the Georgia conflict was for Russia, in Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's words, a "long-cherished moment of truth", which has created a new "clarity".

Here are the principles, in the words which President Medvedev used in an interview with the three main Russian TV channels (translated by the BBC Monitoring Service).

1. International law

"Russia recognises the primacy of the basic principles of international law, which define relations between civilised nations. It is in the framework of these principles, of this concept of international law, that we will develop our relations with other states."

2. Multi-polar world

"The world should be multi-polar. Unipolarity is unacceptable, domination is impermissible. We cannot accept a world order in which all decisions are taken by one country, even such a serious and authoritative country as the United States of America. This kind of world is unstable and fraught with conflict."

3. No isolation

"Russia does not want confrontation with any country; Russia has no intention of isolating itself. We will develop, as far as possible, friendly relations both with Europe and with the United State of America, as well as with other countries of the world."

4. Protect citizens

"Our unquestionable priority is to protect the life and dignity of our citizens, wherever they are. We will also proceed from this in pursuing our foreign policy. We will also protect the interest of our business community abroad. And it should be clear to everyone that if someone makes aggressive forays, he will get a response."

5. Spheres of influence

"Russia, just like other countries in the world, has regions where it has its privileged interests. In these regions, there are countries with which we have traditionally had friendly cordial relations, historically special relations. We will work very attentively in these regions and develop these friendly relations with these states, with our close neighbours."

Asked if these "priority regions" were those that bordered on Russia he replied: "Certainly the regions bordering [on Russia], but not only them."

And he stated: "As regards the future, it depends not just on us. It also depends on our friends, our partners in the international community. They have a choice."

The implications

Those therefore are the stated principles. What implications do they have?

To take them in the order he presented them:

The primacy of International Law: This on the face of it sounds encouraging. But Russia signed up to Security Council resolution 1808 in April this year, which reaffirmed "the commitment of all Member States to the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Georgia... " - and has since abandoned that position.

It argues that a Georgian attack on South Ossetia on 7/8 August invalidated its commitment and required that it defend its citizens there. But it perhaps cannot proclaim its faith in international law and at the same time take unilateral action.

This principle therefore has to be seen as rather vague.

The world is multi-polar: This means that Russia will not accept the primacy of the United States (or a combination of the US and its allies) in determining world policy. It will require that its own interests are taken into account.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted at what this really means. "There is a feeling that Nato again needs frontline states to justify its existence," he said in a speech. He was putting down another marker against the extension of Nato membership to Ukraine and Georgia.

Russia does not seek confrontation: Again this sounds hopeful but it based on the requirement that Russia's needs are met first. If the world agrees to its demands, then it is happy to be friends. But if not... therein lies the warning.

Protecting its citizens: The key phrase here is "wherever they are". This was the basis on which Russia went to war in South Ossetia and it contains within it the potential for future interventions - over Crimea, for example, populated by a majority Russian-background population yet owned by Ukraine only since 1954. If Ukraine looked set to join Nato, would Russia claim the protection of its "citizens" there?

Privileged interests: In this principle President Medvedev was getting down to the heart of the matter. Russia is demanding its own spheres of influence, especially, but not only, over states on its borders. This has the potential for further conflict if those "interests" are ignored.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7591610.stm