GAA ODDS

[Lone Shark]

That's one way of looking at it I suppose.

Read back over the thread - round about the bottom of page 24, start of page 25.

[Nimbus]

Ouch. How much did it do Ladbrokes out off?

What price were the team that won the match?

[Lone Shark]

For obvious reasons I can't say the amount - not enough that anyone would bat an eyelid if it was a division one league game, but enough to make people question why I'm doing these matches.

I went in at 2/1 Larkins if memory serves, they were 11/10 by the throw in. I'm fully willing to accept that the price was wrong, but no-one can (or wants to) tell me why it was - and that makes it very difficult for me to make a case in favour of pricing stuff like this.

[Nimbus]

That's what I was thinking.  Surely there could not have been that big a gamble on the winners for Ladbrokes to have suffered a significant dent in their bank balance.

But i suppose business being business they have to look into these things.

Surely you made them plenty of money previously to more than cover the losses incurred in this freak match?

Are you suspicious that the game may have been fixed?

[illdecide]

Any odds for this weeks NFL fixtures???

[Don]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_disp_cat&disp_cat_id=1

[Lone Shark]

That's what I was thinking.  Surely there could not have been that big a gamble on the winners for Ladbrokes to have suffered a significant dent in their bank balance.

But i suppose business being business they have to look into these things.

Surely you made them plenty of money previously to more than cover the losses incurred in this freak match?

Are you suspicious that the game may have been fixed?

How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
- Sherlock Holmes/Arthur Conan Doyle

I really don't want to think that the game was fixed. In all my time in this job in both PP and now Ladbrokes, I've only ever seen one game where one side made no effort and backed their opponents. (And it's not Galway footballers, and that's all I'm saying - longstanding posters on this board will know who I'm talking about). However I need an alternative hypothesis before I can discount it, and I haven't got one, no matter how far and wide I look.

Incidentally, it's not that it cost us a lot of money, not at all. However these games are tricky at the best of times, and the business was getting feck all customer loyalty for us. As I said on this board before, if a Tyrone guy wanted to back his club to win a county quarter final, if he wanted to back UUJ in a Sigerson match, if he wanted to back Omagh CBS in the MacRory cup, I offered all those things last year. And the same Tyrone bies who would happily take advantage of my efforts then were nowhere to be seen all summer when both myself and PP would be 2/1 Tyrone to win Ulster - it was back to PP being "handy" or some such shite. (I'm not complaining that a guy would go to PP or Boyles if the price was bigger - that's just good sense. I'm talking about failing to lay teams when you are a good price even though you know you have a decent chunk of customers on your books who will in all likelihood be betting somewhere)

The problem is that it's very hard beat the punters on all this stuff, because they only play where they have an opinion - as the bookie you have to put your opinion out there for all of them whether you like it or not. If I was pricing these Sigerson matches, as I did last year, guys in Belfast will have their opinion on some or all of Mary's, UUJ and QUB. and they will ignore games like GMIT vs WIT and IT Tralee vs Maynooth. I don't have that luxury. I was just about keeping the head above water, but a few bad results in the preseason stuff while I was on holidays followed by the above incident brought things to a head, and so we are where we are. 

[prettyboyfloyd]

For obvious reasons I can't say the amount - not enough that anyone would bat an eyelid if it was a division one league game, but enough to make people question why I'm doing these matches.

I went in at 2/1 Larkins if memory serves, they were 11/10 by the throw in. I'm fully willing to accept that the price was wrong, but no-one can (or wants to) tell me why it was - and that makes it very difficult for me to make a case in favour of pricing stuff like this.

Loneshark, just to put you out of your misery, I don't think the match was fixed, I think you got fed bad information from your 'source' in London. Yes Robert Emmets won the Intermediate Club championship the previous year beating Larkins on the way, but they did not have the same team (plus two tipp lads) the following year, a lot of the players from that Robert Emmets team left London after that match, which was a reason for London doing so poorly in the National League last year. Also it was bemoaned and named as a specific reason by the London manager in the run up to their game against Antrim in the Ulster championship, and in fact it was also part of the reason London were considering withdrawing from the Ulster Championship last year completely, as they didn't see the point in competing when they were struggling to field a team for the National League. So to get back to the original point, you were fed bad info from whoever you have in London, follow up with him as the prices should have been the other way round, and had I known there was betting on that match, I certainly would have fancied a piece of Larkins at 2/1.

On the bare facts your prices were right, but teams in places like London, New York, Boston etc all experience the same thing, wooden spooners one year, champs the next depending on how successfully they recruit the newcomers and whether they happen to hit a year where nobody fancies heading back to the Motherland!

[frankthetank]

Loneshark the bottom line is it is impossible to price up local club matches unless u have a person in each county giving u a certain amount of valuable information.ok you can stick 2 prices and a draw to any given match, which u wr doin and the only time u were laying a bet was when the price was that far out it was sick. i thank you for doing it for so long and am so disappointed that u are pullin it now as i enjoyed stealin a "little" value from you. your at a loser straight away when u are only laying such bets... and labrokes are a joke when it comes to irish sports anyway....99% of the CS do not know wat GAA is and when u try to get a bet settled on one of your speical markets (and indeed on certain 70mins matches) it takes about 4 phone calls, a problem that im sure every1 will agree does not arise with PP and boyles.

As for that inter hurling match i know what happened but to be honest i cudnt be rathered commenting on it.

Happy punting

[blanketattack]

CAn anyone post this weeks odds up as I don't have access to bookie sites?

[frankthetank]

boylesports

16 Feb 19:00 Laois vs Derry     5/4  7/1  5/6 1   
16 Feb 19:00 Kerry vs Tyrone    1/2  7/1  21/10 - 
17 Feb 14:30 Mayo vs Donegal     4/5  13/2  11/8 - 
17 Feb 13:30 Kildare vs Galway     11/10  13/2  EVS - 

National Football League Divison 2 (click here to open|close this coupon)
  Match Home Draw Away   
16 Feb 19:00 Cavan vs Monaghan     7/4  15/2  4/7 1 - 
17 Feb 14:30 Roscommon vs Meath     2/1  15/2  1/2 1 - 
17 Feb 14:30 Westmeath vs Armagh     13/8  13/2  4/6 1 - 

National Football League Divison 3 (click here to open|close this coupon)
  Match Home Draw Away   
17 Feb 14:30 Longford vs Leitrim     1/3  17/2  14/5 - 
17 Feb 14:30 Louth vs Down     15/8  13/2  4/7 1 
17 Feb 14:30 Fermanagh vs Limerick     8/13  13/2  7/4 - 
17 Feb 14:30 Sligo vs Wexford     11/8  13/2  4/5 1 - 

National Football League Divison 4 (click here to open|close this coupon)
  Match Home Draw Away   
16 Feb 14:30 Kilkenny vs Waterford     12/1  20/1  1/100   
16 Feb 14:30 Offaly vs Tipperary     1/14  16/1  7/1
16 Feb 14:30 Clare vs Antrim     15/8  13/2  4/7 
16 Feb 15:00 London vs Carlow     6/1  16/1  1/12   

National Hurling League Division 1a (click here to open|close this coupon)
  Match Home Draw Away   
17 Feb 14:30 Antrim vs Wexford      7/2  9/1  1/4 1
17 Feb 14:30 Kilkenny vs Dublin      1/14  16/1  7/1
National Hurling League Division 1b (click here to open|close this coupon)
  Match Home Draw Away   
17 Feb 14:30 Clare vs Laois      1/7  12/1  5/1
- 
17 Feb 14:30 Offaly vs Galway      9/2  16/1  1/7 1 - 
17 Feb 14:30 Tipperary vs Limerick     2/5  8/1  5/2

[blanketattack]

Thanks FTT

[Lone Shark]

Suffice it to say that while on the one hand I'm relieved that I don't have to worry about a team having laid down in a match, on another I now have to deal with the knowledge that a guy I knew from my time in London and who I considered a good friend felt the need to stitch me up and create a serious work situation for me, all for the sake of a few quid.

This is one of those days when I wish I worked in another industry.

Regarding CS, I do apologise, and I tried to be the middle man for as many people as possible while I was here. There have been some new Irish bodies recruited, but I couldn't tell you when they hit the front line.

[Lecale2]

Lone Shark - will you be pricing the Senior Club semi finals?

What are your prices for the weekends action?

[Lone Shark]

Will of course, next week.

Here's the prices for this week anyway....

            

Home Team   Away Team   Home   Draw   Away Laois   Derry   11/10    13/2     1/1 Kerry   Tyrone    8/13    7/1     7/4 Cavan   Monaghan   13/8     7/1     4/6 Kilkenny   Waterford   18/1    33/1     1/200 Offaly   Tipperary    1/12   20/1    13/2 Clare   Antrim    2/1    15/2     1/2 London   Carlow    5/1    12/1     1/7 Mayo   Donegal    4/5    13/2    11/8 Kildare   Galway   11/8     7/1     4/5 Roscommon   Meath    5/2     8/1     2/5 Westmeath   Armagh   15/8    13/2     4/7 Longford   Leitrim    2/5     8/1    12/5 Louth   Down    2/1     7/1     8/15 Fermanagh   Limerick    2/3    13/2    13/8 Sligo   Wexford    6/5    13/2    10/11 Antrim   Wexford    4/1    10/1     2/9 Kilkenny   Dublin    1/12   16/1    13/2 Clare   Laois    1/12   16/1    13/2 Offaly   Galway    4/1    10/1     2/9 Tipperary   Limerick    4/11    9/1     5/2

Weekend GAA Handicap List                          Handicap Draw       8/11   Laois (+1pt)    8/1    Derry (-1pt)   11/8 5/4    Kerry (-2pts)    8/1    Tyrone (+2pts)    4/5 1/1    Cavan (+1pt)    8/1    Monaghan (-1pt)    1/1 2/3    Kilkenny (+15pts)   14/1    Waterford (-15pts)   11/10 10/11   Offaly (-8pts)   16/1    Tipperary (+8pts)   10/11 11/10   Clare (+2pts)    8/1    Antrim (-2pts)   10/11 5/6    London (+6pts)   14/1    Carlow (-6pts)   10/11 5/6    Mayo (-1pt)    8/1    Donegal (+1pt)    5/6 5/6    Kildare (+1pt)    8/1    Galway (-1pt)    5/6 1/1    Roscommon (+3pts)    8/1    Meath (-3pts)    1/1 1/1    Westmeath (+2pts)    8/1    Armagh (-2pts)    1/1 6/5    Longford (-3pts)    8/1    Leitrim (+3pts)    5/6 11/10   Louth (+2pts)    8/1    Down (-2pts)   10/11 1/1    Fermanagh (-1pt)    8/1    Limerick (+1pt)    1/1 4/5    Sligo (+1pt)    8/1    Wexford (-1pt)    5/4 5/6    Antrim (+6pts)    10/1    Wexford (-6pts)   11/10 1/1    Kilkenny (-8pts)   10/1    Dublin (+8pts)   10/11 1/1    Clare (-8pts)   10/1    Laois (+8pts)   10/11 10/11   Offaly (+6pts)   10/1    Galway (-6pts)    1/1 11/10   Tipperary (-4pts)    9/1    Limerick (+4pts)   10/11