Remortgage advice

[marty34]

It's going to be high rates for ages or a major recession.

Not a great choice unfortunately.

[LC]

It's going to be high rates for ages or a major recession.

Not a great choice unfortunately.

The only circumstances I can see interest rates coming down again is the onset of a recession as low interest rates will be required to stimulate growth, similar to what they did back in 2008.

[Milltown Row2]

Its like the Thatcher years all over again

The 1979 Conservative government
The incoming administration of Margaret Thatcher raised interest rates to 17 per cent, as the government of the time saw this as a critical weapon in combating inflation, which was steadily rising at the time. It did have the effect of reducing inflation, although critics noted its negative impact on UK manufacturing exports. Interest rates began to rise again towards the end of the 1980s, partly under the pressure of house price rises. Interest rates had gone from 17% in 1979 down to 9% in 1982, and were back to 14.88% in October 1989.

[Saffrongael]

People are much more leveraged now with mortgages, it's a bigger chunk of wages, and people now have debt that didn't really exist in the 80s

[marty34]

People are much more leveraged now with mortgages, it's a bigger chunk of wages, and people now have debt that didn't really exist in the 80s

Everything on credit now.

[Milltown Row2]

People are much more leveraged now with mortgages, it's a bigger chunk of wages, and people now have debt that didn't really exist in the 80s

Everything on credit now.

Now? I'm married 24 years and that generation on women wanted the best of shit straight away and deal with it later, I'm glad to say I've very very little on her credit card!

I'd be feeling very sick if I knew what was wasted over the years on taking/getting 'stuff' on credit!

[thewobbler]

Listening to a number cruncher last night and he reckons that mortgage leveraging means 6% now has the same effect as 13% rates in the late 70s.

[J70]

Its like the Thatcher years all over again

The 1979 Conservative government
The incoming administration of Margaret Thatcher raised interest rates to 17 per cent, as the government of the time saw this as a critical weapon in combating inflation, which was steadily rising at the time. It did have the effect of reducing inflation, although critics noted its negative impact on UK manufacturing exports. Interest rates began to rise again towards the end of the 1980s, partly under the pressure of house price rises. Interest rates had gone from 17% in 1979 down to 9% in 1982, and were back to 14.88% in October 1989.

Similar pattern in the US. 30 year mortgage rates over the last decade have been far lower than anything in the four decades preceding. The Fed dropped interest rates way down after 2008 and its only the past two years with the post-Covid shutdown inflation surge that they've raised them again. Greenspan had pushed them through the roof early in Reagan's terms to try to bust the inflation that started in the 70s.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

[armaghniac]

Its like the Thatcher years all over again

The 1979 Conservative government
The incoming administration of Margaret Thatcher raised interest rates to 17 per cent, as the government of the time saw this as a critical weapon in combating inflation, which was steadily rising at the time. It did have the effect of reducing inflation, although critics noted its negative impact on UK manufacturing exports. Interest rates began to rise again towards the end of the 1980s, partly under the pressure of house price rises. Interest rates had gone from 17% in 1979 down to 9% in 1982, and were back to 14.88% in October 1989.

Similar pattern in the US. 30 year mortgage rates over the last decade have been far lower than anything in the four decades preceding. The Fed dropped interest rates way down after 2008 and its only the past two years with the post-Covid shutdown inflation surge that they've raised them again. Greenspan had pushed them through the roof early in Reagan's terms to try to bust the inflation that started in the 70s.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Generally, interest rates have been much lower and consequently house prices have become higher. In the UK the interest rates have now gone up to a middle level, but the loans for the houses are at a high level, which is why people are under such pressure. In Ireland, the loans were pretty conservative since the crash so people have some headroom, I'm not sure that this was the case in Britain.

[armaghniac]

By way of comparison, AIB charge 3.3% variable in the 26 counties, while AIBNI charge 7.25% variable in the 6 counties.
Now of course houses are twice the price in the 26 counties, but people are earning 40% more, so things are significantly tighter now in the North.

[marty34]

The For Sales signs at houses could be stsying up a lot longer now.  This time last year the signs were hardly up, then the house was sold.  Now the For Sale signs are staying up a lot longer, a lot longer.

[clarshack]

The For Sales signs at houses could be stsying up a lot longer now.  This time last year the signs were hardly up, then the house was sold.  Now the For Sale signs are staying up a lot longer, a lot longer.

There won't be many houses being built either. I posted recently in the Building a House thread that I was talking to someone who worked in construction and the work had dried up for the company he works for. It's not going to get any better after today.

[marty34]

The For Sales signs at houses could be stsying up a lot longer now.  This time last year the signs were hardly up, then the house was sold.  Now the For Sale signs are staying up a lot longer, a lot longer.

There won't be many houses being built either. I posted recently in the Building a House thread that I was talking to someone who worked in construction and the work had dried up for the company he works for. It's not going to get any better after today.

Funny that, in a way, as more houses are/will be needed and now would be a good time to build them.

But with the higher interest rates, the cost of materials and the cost of living crisis, then it's a catch 22.

[Maroon Manc]

The For Sales signs at houses could be stsying up a lot longer now.  This time last year the signs were hardly up, then the house was sold.  Now the For Sale signs are staying up a lot longer, a lot longer.

There won't be many houses being built either. I posted recently in the Building a House thread that I was talking to someone who worked in construction and the work had dried up for the company he works for. It's not going to get any better after today.

Where is he working?

[clarshack]

The For Sales signs at houses could be stsying up a lot longer now.  This time last year the signs were hardly up, then the house was sold.  Now the For Sale signs are staying up a lot longer, a lot longer.

There won't be many houses being built either. I posted recently in the Building a House thread that I was talking to someone who worked in construction and the work had dried up for the company he works for. It's not going to get any better after today.

Where is he working?

In the North.