Sam Maguire permutations

[blanketattack]

1/4 final predictions:

Kerry v Roscommon
Galway v Monaghan
Dublin  v Tyrone
Mayo v Derry

[blanketattack]

(1/2) Kerry 7/4 7/4
(1/2) Dublin 5/2 9/4
(1/2) Galway 11/2 13/2
(3) Mayo 7/1 7/1
(1/2) Derry 12/1 11/1
(3) Tyrone 16/1 18/1
(1/2) Armagh 20/1 22/1
(3) Roscommon 50/1 40/1
(3) Monaghan 66/1 50/1
(4) Cork 80/1 100/1
(4) Kildare 80/1 80/1
(4) Donegal 150/1 150/1
(1/2) Louth 200/1 200/1
(1/2) Clare 300/1 250/1
(4) Westmeath 500/1 500/1
(1/2) Sligo 1000/1 500/1

Odds to win pre and post draw.
Teams whose odds shortened got a good draw. Dublin/Derry/Roscommon/Monaghan/Clare/Sligo
Teams whose odds lengthened got a bad draw. Galway/Armagh/Tyrone/Cork

I wouldn't have seen the draw as good for Dublin.
Group might be easy, which they were always going to qualify from anyway, but it means the team they face in the quarters likely to be difficult as they can't face someone from their own group.
Most likely to get one from Mayo/Kerry, Tyrone/Galway, Armagh/Derry.

[blanketattack]

Not hugely exciting for the neutral I doubt Clare Sligo or Westmeath win a match and Cork and Louth will play off for 3rd.

Group 4 in particular with the Ulster teams you know those games won't be hugely exciting.

I fancy Clare to beat Donegal

[Captain Obvious]

(1/2) Kerry 7/4 7/4
(1/2) Dublin 5/2 9/4
(1/2) Galway 11/2 13/2
(3) Mayo 7/1 7/1
(1/2) Derry 12/1 11/1
(3) Tyrone 16/1 18/1
(1/2) Armagh 20/1 22/1
(3) Roscommon 50/1 40/1
(3) Monaghan 66/1 50/1
(4) Cork 80/1 100/1
(4) Kildare 80/1 80/1
(4) Donegal 150/1 150/1
(1/2) Louth 200/1 200/1
(1/2) Clare 300/1 250/1
(4) Westmeath 500/1 500/1
(1/2) Sligo 1000/1 500/1

Odds to win pre and post draw.
Teams whose odds shortened got a good draw. Dublin/Derry/Roscommon/Monaghan/Clare/Sligo
Teams whose odds lengthened got a bad draw. Galway/Armagh/Tyrone/Cork

I wouldn't have seen the draw as good for Dublin.
Group might be easy, which they were always going to qualify from anyway, but it means the team they face in the quarters likely to be difficult as they can't face someone from their own group.
Most likely to get one from Mayo/Kerry, Tyrone/Galway, Armagh/Derry.

Yes, Quarter final exit is possible for Dublin this year.

[Rossfan]

Dublin/Sligo is the likeliest fixture and should be played at a NEUTRAL venue in a NEUTRAL location.
Breffni Park the obvious choice.
If the GAA decide on Croke Park they should be boycotted!

[blanketattack]

Dublin/Sligo is the likeliest fixture and should be played at a NEUTRAL venue in a NEUTRAL location.
Breffni Park the obvious choice.
If the GAA decide on Croke Park they should be boycotted!

Dublin will probably end up with 2 home games and 1 neutral in the round robin. Some joke.

[joemamas]

Was just chatting to a fairly passionate GAA man, his reaction to the draw is that it is a bit too watered down.
Hard to disagree. Hopefully next year, they consider just the top two go through from the groups. Full stop.

[J70]

Not hugely exciting for the neutral I doubt Clare Sligo or Westmeath win a match and Cork and Louth will play off for 3rd.

Group 4 in particular with the Ulster teams you know those games won't be hugely exciting.

I fancy Clare to beat Donegal

Given where we currently are at, Clare should be favourites.

Home to Derry or Armagh. And then Monaghan in, presumably, Breffni or Omagh.

A year ago we'd be aiming for three wins, regardless of our complaints at the time.

Now... well at least we should be put out of our misery fairly quickly and hopefully get down to sorting out the various problems within the county.

[Blowitupref]

Was just chatting to a fairly passionate GAA man, his reaction to the draw is that it is a bit too watered down.
Hard to disagree. Hopefully next year, they consider just the top two go through from the groups. Full stop.

With that would have the Super 8s issue of dead rubber games in round 3 and i can't see HQ doing or wanting that.

[rosnarun]

Was just chatting to a fairly passionate GAA man, his reaction to the draw is that it is a bit too watered down.
Hard to disagree. Hopefully next year, they consider just the top two go through from the groups. Full stop.

With that would have the Super 8s issue of dead rubber games in round 3 and i can't see HQ doing or wanting that.

Tailtean cup winners should b included too at the expese of the 8th team, help keep things interesting

[An Fhairche Abu]

The way the provincials worked out this year, the group with the Ulster runner up was always going to be the "group of death". But with 3 progressing it's not something to be worried about.

People seem to think because three teams are getting out of the group, that as long as a team gets out of the group all will be fine and dandy.
There's going to be a world of difference in terms of teams coming out of the group as winner versus 2nd versus 3rd.
Half of those who come out of the group in 2nd and 3rd place will be gone within 7 days.
It's not like the Super 8s where getting out of the group would get a team a place in a semi-final in a neutral venue.

This is so true, topping the group is vital to get that two week break to a q final and to avoid the other group winners in the draw.
I'd go so far as to say that whoever are the four teams that top their respective groups, the eventual winners of Sam are going to come from that cohort. Not to say a 2nd or 3rd placed team can't do it but going week in week out playing win or go home games will stretch squads and any injury niggles to the limit, the odds just get longer and longer.

Surely there would be similar odds to a team from the qualifiers winning Sam in the old days

It's not like the old days though this is the thing, topping the group is the only way to go, advantage of a week off while the 2nd and 3rd placed teams are fighting for their lives at the same time is going to be massive. Maybe it'll shake out differently but I'll be shocked if the AI winner isn't one of the group table toppers.

Personally I think it should be top two through and two week break for those teams to the Q-finals but I see why they have gone this route to avoid the round 3 dead rubbers.

[CK_Redhand]

We can change the format of intercounty football every year and still encounter the same problems. The elephant in the room is the inherent imbalance between counties and provinces due to population and interest in football vs other sports.

If we continue with intercounty football as is, I think the best solution would be to move to 2 divisions of 16 teams. Round robin league with 30 games. Play a 32 team straight knockout cup concurrently with the weeks of fixtures known in advance. Use the "pre season" tournaments to replace the provincial championships.

[pbat]

With the draw so early it leaves teams with options of throwing games. Not saying it would happen but it is potentially now in Kerry's interest to lose the Munster Final and finish up in a group with Monaghan and Donegal and leave Mayo for a rattle later in the year.

I don't get the rush with everything from draws to games on top of each other.

[dec]

We can change the format of intercounty football every year and still encounter the same problems. The elephant in the room is the inherent imbalance between counties and provinces due to population and interest in football vs other sports.

If we continue with intercounty football as is, I think the best solution would be to move to 2 divisions of 16 teams. Round robin league with 30 games. Play a 32 team straight knockout cup concurrently with the weeks of fixtures known in advance. Use the "pre season" tournaments to replace the provincial championships.

"Round robin league with 30 games"

So county players won't be playing very many club games.

[Hound]

Dublin/Sligo is the likeliest fixture and should be played at a NEUTRAL venue in a NEUTRAL location.
Breffni Park the obvious choice.
If the GAA decide on Croke Park they should be boycotted!

Dublin will probably end up with 2 home games and 1 neutral in the round robin. Some joke.

Ah jazes, wait until they do it, before getting yourself all annoyed!
I think the only way Dublin v Sligo (if that's how it pans out) is played in Croker is if Sligo request it. Which I presume is unlikely.

If there is an upset in any of the one-sided (according to the bookies) provincial finals, it would certainly make a big change to the groups.