Russia invades Ukraine Feb 2022

[imtommygunn]

Exactly to the latter. I just don't know how this is going to end but it's not going to end well 

[Taylor]

Putin is like a cornered rat so he has to win whatever the cost. If we thought things were ugly since last Thursday he is about to seriously up the ante with this convoy heading to Kyiv. He isn't about to suddenly admit I made a mistake, sorry about that, we'll pack up and go home. Like the gambler with a busted flush, he is all in. The question is what happens next?

He needs to be removed and the only way that will happen is from within Russia. It will take a serious mobilisation of ordinary decent Russian citizens who have disdain for him over the years even before this war to rise up. Hard to see that happening given the grip he has on them and sources of information. Unfortunately, serious change can only come from within Russia itself.

Ordinary Russians will end up paying the price economically and a mass insurrection may be likelier than many predict. You could well be right in that it may take something like this to remove his hands from the levers of power. War crimes being committed in their name and being treated as a pariah state with no allies will not sit well with ordinary folk. That is the best case scenario.

The worst case scenario does not bear thinking about.

I agree, however the ordinary folk in Russia have zero say - you could see that with the response to protests in Russia last week - just arrest them.

And then commentators saying how brave they were to simply go out on the street and have a peaceful protest about the Ukranian invasion - imagine the outcome if there was anything stronger than a peaceful protest.

If Putin was taken out would this all be over?

[Armamike]

The Russians have a good track record of ruthlessly removing their leaders when it suits. 

[yellowcard]

Putin is like a cornered rat so he has to win whatever the cost. If we thought things were ugly since last Thursday he is about to seriously up the ante with this convoy heading to Kyiv. He isn't about to suddenly admit I made a mistake, sorry about that, we'll pack up and go home. Like the gambler with a busted flush, he is all in. The question is what happens next?

He needs to be removed and the only way that will happen is from within Russia. It will take a serious mobilisation of ordinary decent Russian citizens who have disdain for him over the years even before this war to rise up. Hard to see that happening given the grip he has on them and sources of information. Unfortunately, serious change can only come from within Russia itself.

Ordinary Russians will end up paying the price economically and a mass insurrection may be likelier than many predict. You could well be right in that it may take something like this to remove his hands from the levers of power. War crimes being committed in their name and being treated as a pariah state with no allies will not sit well with ordinary folk. That is the best case scenario.

The worst case scenario does not bear thinking about.

I agree, however the ordinary folk in Russia have zero say - you could see that with the response to protests in Russia last week - just arrest them.

And then commentators saying how brave they were to simply go out on the street and have a peaceful protest about the Ukranian invasion - imagine the outcome if there was anything stronger than a peaceful protest.

If Putin was taken out would this all be over?

I think it would depend on just how intolerable life became for ordinary Russian folk. If Putin engages in a long protracted war whereby the Russian economy enters hyper inflation, the army suffers sizable losses, mass poverty kicks in at home due to ongoing sanctions and they lose all semblance of contact with the outside world, then their anger will have to be directed somewhere. Things will need to get a whole lot worse within Russia before peaceful protest translates into mass insurrection but nobody can predict the future with any great certainty. All it takes is some other unforeseen event to change the narrative entirely so it would be foolish to rule anything out at this stage. 

[imtommygunn]

Like a NATO no fly zone  I wonder is that coming and is it effectively then WW3.

[seafoid]

https://www.ft.com/content/e32aaff8-af24-46e1-8c7c-2a7d09387e45

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it "deplored" the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

[Wildweasel74]

I see buffer zone mentioned, Excately a buffer zone from who? Missiles, Jets and heavy bombers make buffers zones redundant. Its not a rerun of world war 2 here where the biggest tank and best fighter plane was king. 2

[north_antrim_hound]

I see buffer zone mentioned, Excately a buffer zone from who? Missiles, Jets and heavy bombers make buffers zones redundant. Its not a rerun of world war 2 here where the biggest tank and best fighter plane was king. 2

I'd say it's gonna be something like the DMZ between north and south Vietnam during the war but your right it didn't stop the USA sending b52s to Hanoi.

[HiMucker]

https://twitter.com/danict89/status/1498726365159374849?s=21

[Rossfan]

Putin is like a cornered rat so he has to win whatever the cost. If we thought things were ugly since last Thursday he is about to seriously up the ante with this convoy heading to Kyiv. He isn't about to suddenly admit I made a mistake, sorry about that, we'll pack up and go home. Like the gambler with a busted flush, he is all in. The question is what happens next?

He needs to be removed and the only way that will happen is from within Russia. It will take a serious mobilisation of ordinary decent Russian citizens who have disdain for him over the years even before this war to rise up. Hard to see that happening given the grip he has on them and sources of information. Unfortunately, serious change can only come from within Russia itself.

Ordinary Russians will end up paying the price economically and a mass insurrection may be likelier than many predict.

Food prices rising and mortgage interest gone to 20%!!

[Average Score]

Putin is like a cornered rat so he has to win whatever the cost. If we thought things were ugly since last Thursday he is about to seriously up the ante with this convoy heading to Kyiv. He isn't about to suddenly admit I made a mistake, sorry about that, we'll pack up and go home. Like the gambler with a busted flush, he is all in. The question is what happens next?

He needs to be removed and the only way that will happen is from within Russia. It will take a serious mobilisation of ordinary decent Russian citizens who have disdain for him over the years even before this war to rise up. Hard to see that happening given the grip he has on them and sources of information. Unfortunately, serious change can only come from within Russia itself.

Ordinary Russians will end up paying the price economically and a mass insurrection may be likelier than many predict.

Food prices rising and mortgage interest gone to 20%!!

But the state controlled media will blame the west and the anger will be directed there, unless China has a word nothing will change the Yanks are not going to do anything nor will NATO and no one will topple him.

[J70]

https://twitter.com/danict89/status/1498726365159374849?s=21

Holy f**k! See the shock wave?

Don't even want to imagine the damage that did.

[J70]

Listening to NY Times The Daily podcast today.

Interviews with young Ukrainian men who were not allowed to leave as all men 18-60 have to stay and fight.

Just regular people, regular jobs. One hoping to work for Pixar one day. One said he'd been making plans to go buy some PlayStation games this weekend. Ordinary stuff we all do.

One of them even upset about the fact that he may have to kill Russian lads just like himself.

And now they're forced to take up arms and fight for their homeland due to a corrupt, deranged dictator.

[RadioGAAGAA]

So from what I gather today:

- Ukrainian drones are doing a serious number on Russian armour. If they can get more bombs and missiles for their TB2s; that big column (or rather, column of columns - its nothing like a continuous 40 miles) approaching Kyev could arrive in a bit of a shambles.

- Russia do not have air superiority and are now tending to operate more at night.

- Ukraine are now going to be receiving full satellite support from the EU, potentially others; giving them a major real-time information boost. This will include satellite radar feeds; somewhat countering the Russian move toward the cover of darkness.

- Russia appear to have used at least one thermobaric bomb; there is a twitter video of it going off; the blast is fairly identifiable.

- Russian state of logistics is a big unknown, apparently numerous tanks etc already ran out of fuel. No doubt others will be restricted in their maneouvres due to fuel concerns. If the Ukrainians can choke off enough of the logistical train, they'll win.

[WT4E]

So from what I gather today:

- Ukrainian drones are doing a serious number on Russian armour. If they can get more bombs and missiles for their TB2s; that big column (or rather, column of columns - its nothing like a continuous 40 miles) approaching Kyev could arrive in a bit of a shambles.

- Russia do not have air superiority and are now tending to operate more at night.

- Ukraine are now going to be receiving full satellite support from the EU, potentially others; giving them a major real-time information boost. This will include satellite radar feeds; somewhat countering the Russian move toward the cover of darkness.

- Russia appear to have used at least one thermobaric bomb; there is a twitter video of it going off; the blast is fairly identifiable.

- Russian state of logistics is a big unknown, apparently numerous tanks etc already ran out of fuel. No doubt others will be restricted in their maneouvres due to fuel concerns. If the Ukrainians can choke off enough of the logistical train, they'll win.

Where u get all this info?