IRISH NORTHERNERS AND SOUTHERNERS

[ned]

The north of Ireland is changing massively in it's make up. In the 70's who'd have thought that the church now would have so little influence in Ireland and that church attendance would have dropped so drastically as it has done.
I can see a younger generation in 20-30 years which is less defined by their religion and hopefully less inclined to be so sheepish in their political views. Families are becoming more 'mixed' and less parochial.
There is an interesting MP for an Edinburgh constituency called Tommy Sheppard. He is from a northern Irish protestant background. He realised at a young age that the views of his contemporaries was not his. He is a committed republican in the broader sense. More like him might change the lay of the land somewhat. Unless you soft southerners decide you want to be part of England again :-)

[haranguerer]

Could you expand on this?

It is widely believed that NI is in receipt of a very large degree of subsidy, owing to limited tax receipts and excessive public expenditure (the highest in these islands). That subsidy is modest per taxpayer in the UK, and largely unknown to them, but would be unrealistic for the rest of Ireland to subsidise. A United Ireland needs to be a one of (approximate) equals where everyone pays their way. Now the exact extent of this gap would have to be calculated, but it needs more economic activity (more tax) and less excessive public expenditure in NI.  That requires NI nationalism to go from a perspective of extracting as much from the British as possible, to an intention to become more like the rest of the country, SF have shown little indication of having fully taken this on board, indeed they seem to want to turn the rest of the country into the 6 counties.

I appreciate that you did try to expand, but I meant specifically on the issue being a workable economic model.   Forgetting about the short term, when there inevitably would be much upheaval, why would the north of ireland not be the same as the rest of Ireland in this respect?

Forgetting about a UI or anything else, its universally acknowledged that chiefly due to its unique circumstances, there is an over-reliance on the public sector in NI. Steps are being taken to cut the public sector, and there are also steps being taken, including reducing the rate of CT, to stimulate the private sector.

NI is then, working to get towards a workable economic model as it is, the success or otherwise of that remains to be seen, but its a long term project...You think, however, that if there was to be a UI the issue would be coming up with a workable economic model for NI? I don't understand how you would arrive at that conclusion at all. If you accept that the south has or will have by that time at least 'a workable economic model', then why wouldn't that do for the island??

[easytiger95]

I think the point is that, as evidenced by the standoff over welfare cuts, that NI, as it currently stands, is still receiving a subsidy from the UK treasury that, both as a gross figure and per capita, is far beyond what the ROI Dept of Finance would be able to provide. Completely acknowledge the work that has gone on in NI in terms of stimulating the private sector, but there is still a huge amount of work to be done. Probably culturally as much as anything else - the reliance on the block grant is simultaneously a backstop for the institutions, but a disincentive to innovate.

I'm not right-wing economically at all, but the bald fact is that if NI came into a united Ireland tomorrow, the living standards of a lot of people relying on welfare there at the moment across both communities would drop dramatically, if they were to change over to ROI rates. Also the standard of public services in ROI is behind what is currently provided in the UK (although under a Conservative majority that will narrow).

People will always make their choices through self interest - at the moment, UI is a difficult practical argument to make as it can be demonstrated that there is a possibility of a fall in living standards, at least during a transition period.

The two states need to converge - ROI needs to get back to a level of economic growth and sustainability that seemed attainable in the late 90s, whilst the reality of austerity cuts in the UK would have to be applied equally across NI as it is across Scotland and Wales - so a UI becomes an attractive solution, to all segments of the Nationalist community and perhaps to a swathe of the Unionist middle class as well.

I really hope it does happen - whilst the first few years could be very difficult, I think the global goodwill towards a united Ireland, plus the necessary strengthening of our relationship with the UK because of guarantees to Unionists, whilst still remaining firmly with the EU, would present a massive opportunity for all on the island.

But it is opportunity that people will vote for, not history. Agree with commenters before that Nationalism, both North and South needs the emergence of a new leadership. We'll see.

[Keyser soze]

I think the point is that, as evidenced by the standoff over welfare cuts, that NI, as it currently stands, is still receiving a subsidy from the UK treasury that, both as a gross figure and per capita, is far beyond what the ROI Dept of Finance would be able to provide. Completely acknowledge the work that has gone on in NI in terms of stimulating the private sector, but there is still a huge amount of work to be done. Probably culturally as much as anything else - the reliance on the block grant is simultaneously a backstop for the institutions, but a disincentive to innovate.

I'm not right-wing economically at all, but the bald fact is that if NI came into a united Ireland tomorrow, the living standards of a lot of people relying on welfare there at the moment across both communities would drop dramatically, if they were to change over to ROI rates. Also the standard of public services in ROI is behind what is currently provided in the UK (although under a Conservative majority that will narrow).

People will always make their choices through self interest - at the moment, UI is a difficult practical argument to make as it can be demonstrated that there is a possibility of a fall in living standards, at least during a transition period.

The two states need to converge - ROI needs to get back to a level of economic growth and sustainability that seemed attainable in the late 90s, whilst the reality of austerity cuts in the UK would have to be applied equally across NI as it is across Scotland and Wales - so a UI becomes an attractive solution, to all segments of the Nationalist community and perhaps to a swathe of the Unionist middle class as well.

I really hope it does happen - whilst the first few years could be very difficult, I think the global goodwill towards a united Ireland, plus the necessary strengthening of our relationship with the UK because of guarantees to Unionists, whilst still remaining firmly with the EU, would present a massive opportunity for all on the island.

But it is opportunity that people will vote for, not history. Agree with commenters before that Nationalism, both North and South needs the emergence of a new leadership. We'll see.

Do you have any data to support this?  Would not have thought there would be a 'dramatic' difference tbh.

[haranguerer]

I get all that - but that's short term. A 'workable economic model' would appear to me to be referring to a much longer term plan for economic viability and success. And given that it seems everyone already realises what needs to be done to make NI even on its own more economically viable, then coming up with a plan for a future UI doesn't seem to be a big barrier to me...

As I said earlier (anecdotally), nations around the world spend billions expanding their territory, but a peaceful western european assimilation of the north would actually cost Ireland? How does that work?!

[Rossfan]

Is Social welfare not higher in the 26 these days?
Anyone know how much tax/revenue the British Government collects in the 6 Cos?

[Hound]

Is Social welfare not higher in the 26 these days?
Anyone know how much tax/revenue the British Government collects in the 6 Cos?

Unemployment benefit much higher down south, not sure about other social welfare.

One of the biggest concerns you hear raised is that so many people up north are employed in the public service, but I suppose it depends on what exactly they are doing.

NI's unemployment rate is currently twice that of the UK. So it's not all rosy under the UK's watch. And it would certainly get worse in the short term if Brexit comes about. A Brexit could in fact change the climate considerably, and bring a big shift towards a United Ireland

[AQMP]

Is Social welfare not higher in the 26 these days?
Anyone know how much tax/revenue the British Government collects in the 6 Cos?

The most recent figures I could find are for the year April 2013 - March 2014 and this gives the total tax take in NI as just under stg£15 billion (or just over £15 billion if you make an allowance for North Sea oil revenues).  Roughly €19.5 billion.

https://www.dfpni.gov.uk/publications/northern-ireland-net-fiscal-balance-report-2012-13-and-2013-14

[easytiger95]

Sorry guys, I don't have hard figures to hand - was basing my thoughts on totality of benefits (including housing, disability, access to better services such as NHS etc as well as unemployment) as well as the fact that up to last year, the block grant was based on the Barnett Formula (calculated on relative population rather than need) which would have seen the regions (Scotland, Wales and NI) paid substantially more than England - though the Conservatives are trying to force through the same welfare levels across the entire UK.

Also, as someone mentioned, the public service up there is substantially larger as a per capita employer then it is down here.

Perhaps it is just perception that NI is economically better off within the UK, but that perception is held on both sides of the border, and it is up to nationalist leaders to articulate a better vision for UI and also a detailed, costed road map to get there. Which,I think it is fair enough to say, hasn't been done so far, North or South.

I suppose that comes back to my point, which put simply, is that on an island where discrimination by political persuasion is outlawed in both parts, where there is equal access to jobs and housing in both parts (open to correction there from NI posters), and where there are impartial police forces and equal access to the justice system (same again, open to correction), to rely on a historical argument isn't going to do it. We need a proclamation for the 21st century, which articulates the needs of citizens of a future Republic, not one preserved in aspic since 1916.

[haranguerer]

Perhaps it is just perception that NI is economically better off within the UK, but that perception is held on both sides of the border

It is just perception, and regardless of where its held, its flawed. The only way it holds any water is if its based on the very short term.

The UK is a london-centric economy. London supports most of the other regions. Whats good for anywhere else in the UK will be economically be secondary for whats good for london. How can NI develop its potential in that environ?

Opposing views saying the same thing from different angles, first is daily mail and the second is guardian

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2100345/Londons-taxes-prop-rest-UK-One-pound-earned-capital-funds-rest-country.html

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/10/public-money-private-wealth-london-north-v-south

[Hound]

Perhaps it is just perception that NI is economically better off within the UK, but that perception is held on both sides of the border, and it is up to nationalist leaders to articulate a better vision for UI and also a detailed, costed road map to get there. Which,I think it is fair enough to say, hasn't been done so far, North or South.

Is that true? Do posters think that they are better off in a pure financial sense now than if NI joined a UI?

It's my perception that people think they are more secure under UK, and would face more uncertainty in UI, rather than their incomes would reduce. And there'd be a worry about the health service of UI compared to UK.

My perception is that if you have a person in Belfast and a person in Dublin doing the exact same job, the guy in Dublin would be getting paid more.
Similarly a guy in Cork would get paid more than a guy in Derry.
But that's just my perceptions, I could be off (and of course there's a lot more than consider than just pure salary)

[armaghniac]

The point is that NI receives a significant subsidy, which still delivers a standard of living lower than in the 26 counties. This has been obscured in recent years, but with the ROI having taken off again and the Conservatives putting the squeeze on public expenditure in NI this might become more visible.

The problem is that while this visibility might increase interest in a UI it is rather difficult to move on from there. NI costs Britain money and there is no real incentive for them to play hardball in the financial arrangements made, but the problem here that it is difficult to devise arrangements which encourage NI to leave while also encouraging Scotland to stay, so the Scots are confusing the issue. The solution is for NI, like Scotland, to have a measure of local economic performance. Unfortunately, it has a handout mentality engrained in its politicians.

Unemployment benefit much higher down south, not sure about other social welfare.

Pretty much every cash benefit is higher.

One of the biggest concerns you hear raised is that so many people up north are employed in the public service, but I suppose it depends on what exactly they are doing.

This would be an interesting question.

A Brexit could in fact change the climate considerably, and bring a big shift towards a United Ireland

Well, yes and no. Assuming that it is a Brexit with real change and not some of the models proposed then it would lead to lose of income for farmers etc and disruption of cross border trade. The problem for Scotland and NI is that such a Brexit would mean substantial dislocation of trade with England if they leave the UK and stay in the EU, and English trade is still important. This would be a bit like 1921 for NI, although trade with the rest of Ireland would also come with the rest of the EU. Ireland (united) and Scotland might have to form a little Celtic block (room for Wales also) closely affiliated with the EU but not quite in it, in order to continue to have separate arrangements with England. 

[easytiger95]

Perhaps it is just perception that NI is economically better off within the UK, but that perception is held on both sides of the border

It is just perception, and regardless of where its held, its flawed. The only way it holds any water is if its based on the very short term.

The UK is a london-centric economy. London supports most of the other regions. Whats good for anywhere else in the UK will be economically be secondary for whats good for london. How can NI develop its potential in that environ?

Opposing views saying the same thing from different angles, first is daily mail and the second is guardian

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2100345/Londons-taxes-prop-rest-UK-One-pound-earned-capital-funds-rest-country.html

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/10/public-money-private-wealth-london-north-v-south

What's the very short term though? That's my whole point - people make decisions based on whether they can afford uniforms and schoolbooks for their kids next September, not whether the treaty of 21 was a betrayal of the Republic. They need a very persuasive argument to look beyond next September, and that is not being made. On either side of the border.

[Rossfan]

Unemployment benefit much higher down south, not sure about other social welfare.

Pretty much every cash benefit is higher.

State Pension (contributory) here is €230.30
I believe the figure up  north is GB£155.65 ( c €195).

If the British Govt get GB£15Bn from the North - how much do they give Stormont to run the place and then how much do they spend on non Stromont business?

[Rossfan]

-  MOST people make decisions based on whether they can afford uniforms and schoolbooks for their kids next September, not whether the treaty of 21 was a betrayal of the Republic.

Fixed that for you.
There are 5 or 6 GAABoarders at least who would come under the second part of your sentence