The Official 2016 Irish General Election thread

[muppet]

"executive management" and "operational management" - do you understand the difference between the two??

I never "tackled" your point re consultants working both privately and publicly because I don't disagree with you on it.

Why don't you tell us? Maybe it is different in the HSE than in the real world.

And please back it up with something, like I did with my link to the Mater Executive Management Team. There is no 'operational management' link on that site that I can find. There is another link to the 'Medical Executive' which looks like another list of consultants. I am guessing that is not management though. But I still stand over my original statement that consultants are involved in management.

Thinking about it more, we as a society invest a huge amount of money (as I am sure they do themselves) in training them up to a very high level of expertise. We should insist on a maximum return for our investment, meaning that they should spend their time working in their area of expertise, in the public system, and not have so many of them waste their time and expertise in management.

I am glad you agree on the private business operations. I can't think of another industry that allows such a perk.

[AQMP]

On the radio today I heard an asture comment. Most of the seats in any constituency can be predicted, more or less. But the last seat will be multi way fight in most cases and this will be decided not by first prefs but by transfer. There are 40 constituenciies and so 40 last seats and these could go anywhere e.g. Green could get 2 or none, Renua 3 or one etc 

Fine Gael on 51 seats; Fianna Fáil on 39; Sinn Féin on 29; Labour on 7; AAA/PBP on 6; Social Democrats on 3; Renua on 1; and Independents on 22 seats.

I'd say FG +2 on this, FF maybe -1, SF - 3 as they are not transfer friendly, Labour to squeeze one more seat somewhere.

I don't think FF + SF + SD would be enough.

Mighty work there Declan, but if this pans out it would be a nightmare for Inda and a wet dream for Jarry.  My gut still tells me that SF will struggle to get above 25 seats unless they've become a lot more transfer friendly recently or there are a lot of "Shy Shinners" out there.  In previous elections SF have always  performed at the lower end of the polling range

[muppet]

FG/FF

You know it is going to happen.

It will be hilarious watching the squirming of both parties as they try to make Civil War politics go away.

[seafoid]

FG/FF

You know it is going to happen.

It will be hilarious watching the squirming of both parties as they try to make Civil War politics go away.

FF/FG would be a real rurally focused outfit
Dublin is leaving the FF FG template behind

[muppet]

FG/FF

You know it is going to happen.

It will be hilarious watching the squirming of both parties as they try to make Civil War politics go away.

FF/FG would be a real rurally focused outfit
Dublin is leaving the FF FG template behind

Dublin has abandoned boring FG politics and FF-everywing populism, in favour of far left wing populism. The latter is even worse than the former.

In fact Irish politics is completely depressing at this stage. The only thing going for it is that it makes US politics look like Junior B, but that isn't saying much.

[Hound]

FG/FF

You know it is going to happen.

It will be hilarious watching the squirming of both parties as they try to make Civil War politics go away.

Just can't see any logic in FF supporting a FG government.

Fine Gael will try and form a government using pretty much everyone else bar FF, SF and very far lefties.

If that doesn't work then we'll see if FF and SF can get enough independents to support a FF-SF coalition, and in that event both will buy into the idea that they can say we're only doing this to save the country, and past sins can be waived.

[deiseach]

On the radio today I heard an asture comment. Most of the seats in any constituency can be predicted, more or less. But the last seat will be multi way fight in most cases and this will be decided not by first prefs but by transfer. There are 40 constituenciies and so 40 last seats and these could go anywhere e.g. Green could get 2 or none, Renua 3 or one etc 

That's true, in an abstract sense. Those 40 last seat battles are not going to be conducted in isolation from each other though. There will be a national trend and it will be telling. If Labour get the hiding that I think they are going to get, no amount of talk about how the final seat 'could go anywhere' will save them. Perversely I think Fine Gael will be hoping for that hiding at this stage. There's far more votes from an eliminated candidate's transfers than from an elected candidate's surplus and I think that, as Hound noted above, will keep Fine Gael ahead of the Four Horsemen posse.

[Hardy]

On the other hand, statistics from the complete history of general elections show that in, 91% of cases, the result at the end of the first count stands. That is, 91% of seats are filled as if there was only the first count.

Of course, much of that history involved less diverse fields of candidates than we have now, with consequentially more predictable transfers. It will be interesting to see the extent to which it holds true this time.

[Mayo4Sam]

On that Mayo prediction I'd imagine Mulherin should hold her seat over Chambers

[deiseach]

On the other hand, statistics from the complete history of general elections show that in, 91% of cases, the result at the end of the first count stands. That is, 91% of seats are filled as if there was only the first count.

I'm trying to break that statistic down to better understand it. One assumes that 100% of those who top the poll get elected. It's not that uncommon for them to be elected second, but I doubt someone has ever topped the poll and failed to get elected. If you strip that out and look at the percentage elected who finished in 2nd and 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count, does that mean the 91% figure falls? Or is that 91% of those who finish in 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count get elected?

Edit: as an aside, one of the most amusing examples of a vote pact raising someone from the bottom of the pile was in Dublin Central in 2007, where Cyprian Brady finished 9th in first preferences yet got in on the final count with nearly 2,000 votes to spare. You can imagine Bertie telling a handful of people to give Cyprian a dig out so he wouldn't be eliminated too early, but Jaysus the rest of ye had better vote for me! The neediness was quite something.

[AZOffaly]

I believe at least a couple of SF candidates have topped the poll after the first count and not been elected, due to not getting a quota, and being toxic for transfers.

[Canalman]

FG I think got 45% of the seats last time out on 36% of the vote (roughly) and  I think I read recently that they got the bounce of the ball in all of the tight finishes they were involved in with the last seat.

Presume they are hoping the polls are not picking up on the "shy blueshirts" out there.

Cannot wait for Saturday. Great tv viewing watching election count. Drama heaped upon drama. Bring it on.

[Owenmoresider]

On the other hand, statistics from the complete history of general elections show that in, 91% of cases, the result at the end of the first count stands. That is, 91% of seats are filled as if there was only the first count.

I'm trying to break that statistic down to better understand it. One assumes that 100% of those who top the poll get elected. It's not that uncommon for them to be elected second, but I doubt someone has ever topped the poll and failed to get elected. If you strip that out and look at the percentage elected who finished in 2nd and 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count, does that mean the 91% figure falls? Or is that 91% of those who finish in 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count get elected?

Edit: as an aside, one of the most amusing examples of a vote pact raising someone from the bottom of the pile was in Dublin Central in 2007, where Cyprian Brady finished 9th in first preferences yet got in on the final count with nearly 2,000 votes to spare. You can imagine Bertie telling a handful of people to give Cyprian a dig out so he wouldn't be eliminated too early, but Jaysus the rest of ye had better vote for me! The neediness was quite something.

It happened in Sligo/Leitrim in November 1982:
http://www.irelandelection.com/election.php?elecid=8&constitid=54&electype=1

[deiseach]

I remember Mary Wallace (MH, FF) saying she made a rookie mistake for her first election - she went to the count at the very start. By the time the first count was announced she was on the verge of a nervous breakdown. And they'd only just started! I think I'll wait until mid afternoon before tuning in, it'll just be taking heads talking guff until then (more so than usual).

[deiseach]

It happened in Sligo/Leitrim in November 1982:
http://www.irelandelection.com/election.php?elecid=8&constitid=54&electype=1

Love it. Thanks for the enlightenment.