General Election 2016

[AZOffaly]

OK, I was listening to Newstalk morning a few days there, and I thought it might be interesting to see what people think of the various Constituencies and how they will go. This is *NOT* a thread to voice political preferences, or who you will vote for, I just want to see what we think will happen in each constituency. I'll get the ball rolling with Tipperary.

This is a new constituency now, and actually losing a seat as North and South combine to go from two 3 seaters to a 5 seater. All 6 TDs are running, so it will be close enough for the last couple of seats I'd say.

The six TDs are Michael Lowry (IND), Alan Kelly (LAB), Noel Coonan (FG), Tom Hayes (FG), Seamus Healy (IND) and Mattie McGrath (IND)


Fianna Fail were wiped out in Tipperary in 2011, but Mattie McGrath is as gene pool FF as you can get. He may well give them a problem in taking a seat here, but the smart money appears to be on Jackie Cahill taking one back for the Soldiers of Destiny. If that vote does swing to FF, then Noel Coonan, or Alan Kelly might be in trouble. Fianna Fail are running 3 candidates though, so it will probably be in the late rounds before they get a seat, if they get one at all. Seamus Morris is the Sinn Fein candidate, and while he's unlikely to get elected, he is a factor in that he polls fairly decently, and his transfers will help the independents.


Prediction - 2 Independents, with Michael Lowry probably having 2 quotas, and Seamus Healy, 1 FG (Tom Hayes), 1 FF (Jackie Cahill), and the last seat a dogfight between Alan Kelly and Mattie McGrath. I think Alan Kelly will get it because he is doing a lot of parish pump stuff recently, and has been all over the jobs announcements in Nenagh and Silvermines like a rash.

[deiseach]

Great idea for a thread.

Waterford, often viewed as the bellwether constituency, should be straightforward. John Deasy (FG) is a slamdunk, as is John Halligan (IND). David Cullinane (SF) should also get in, which leaves one seat to be fought for between two sitting TD's, Paidie Coffey (FG) and Ciara Conway (LAB), and Mary Butler (FF). Butler has a low profile and is at a geographical disadvantage, but FF still managed three-quarters of a quota last time around at what was surely its lowest ebb. I think Butler will be the last woman standing, perhaps without reaching the quota but comfortably ahead of Coffey and a distant Conway. The latter might even finish behind a lefty candidate with a fair wind behind them, such as Grace O'Sullivan of the Greens.

Prediction - 1 FG, 1 IND, 1 SF, 1 FF

[Rossfan]

Ros/part of Galway.
Fitzmaurice ( sensible Ind) and Naughten ( Dissident FG Ind) to sail home.
FF did well in locals in Ros but have a nobody candidate in Eugene Murphy. Still not certain if they will go with 1 or parachute someone else in. Maura Hopkins ( FG) won't be helped by the Athlone boundary business.
Third seat still a toss up between FF/FG.
As for Lab,  Sinn Pain, Renua and anyone else - sure they'll get their names in the papers anyway.

[Mikhail Prokhorov]

if we could factor in bookies odds that would be helpful as well 

[AQMP]

Contributors to Slugger O'Toole have begun doing pretty good analysis of the prospects in each constituency

http://sluggerotoole.com/author/saw/

[shark]

Longford-Westmeath

Yates covered this on NT this morning. Bannon (FG) will be elected comfortably, as the Longford TD. That leaves the last 3 seats to be carved up between Mullingar and Athlone.
Willie Penrose (Lab) has historically been elected with thousands of votes to spare. He will see a sizeable drop in first preferences, but will still have enough. In the last GE his surplus went almost exclusively to Robert Troy (FF) who became a first time TD. Penrose and Troy are both Mullingar (Ballynacargy more specifically). Penrose won't have the same kind of surplus this time, but now that Troy is established he should do enough by himself. His challenger last time was Peter Burke (FG), but he won't have the favourable sentiment on his side this time.
Last seat is where the competition will be. And it will be an Athlone candidate. Gabrielle McFadden (FG) is the sitting TD having won the bye-election after her sister Nikki passed away. I can't see her holding her seat. It will be between Kevin 'Boxer' Moran (Ind) and Paul Hogan (SF). Moran will get a lot of first preferences in Athlone, but will get practically none outside. Hogan will do better throughout the constituency as the only SF candidate. Yates gave this seat to Moran, and I reckon he will probably be correct. Moran is ex FF and left the party as he couldn't get on the ticket, mainly due Mammy and then her son Aonghus (who has never polled strongly).
1 FG
1 Lab
1 FF
1 Ind

[Hardy]

Cork South Central goes from five seats to four. The incumbents are 2 FG, 2 FF and 1 Labour – Minister Coveney, Party Leader Martin, opposition Finance spokesman Michael McGrath, Banking Enquiry Chairman Ciaran Lynch and Health Committee Chairman Jerry Buttimer. One fairly high profile operator is going to lose out.

This is the only constituency to return two FF TDs last time and with FF polling better this time that probably won't change.

FG certainly won't lose both seats, so Coveney  should be completely safe.

SF polled 5,250 first preferences (8.2%) last time and ended up 2,500-odd short of a quota after all counts. They run a new candidate, Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, this time but it's hard to see them getting the transfers to achieve that.

That leaves the fight for the last seat between Lynch (Labour) and Buttimer (FG) and the outcome probably comes down to the extent of the customary punishment at the polls doled out to the junior coalition partners versus the extent of the electorate's anger at the sitting government in general. Hard to call, though Paddy Power has Buttimer clear favourite for the last seat and even the SF candidate ahead of Lynch.

In the context of the formation of the next government, it appears the only issue to be voted on in the constituency is whether you want FG to govern with Labour or with others.

Paddy Power calling it:
Coveney (FG) - 1/50
McGrath (FF) - 1/10
Martin (FF) - 1/5
Buttimer (FG) - 1/4
Ó Laoghaire (SF) - 4/7
Lynch (Lab) - 10/3

[Billys Boots]

Cork South Central goes from five seats to four. The incumbents are 2 FG, 2 FF and 1 Labour – Minister Coveney, Party Leader Martin, opposition Finance spokesman Michael McGrath, Banking Enquiry Chairman Ciaran Lynch and Health Committee Chairman Jerry Buttimer. One fairly high profile operator is going to lose out.

This is the only constituency to return two FF TDs last time and with FF polling better this time that probably won't change.

FG certainly won't lose both seats, so Coveney  should be completely safe.

SF polled 5,250 first preferences (8.2%) last time and ended up 2,500-odd short of a quota after all counts. They run a new candidate, Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, this time but it's hard to see them getting the transfers to achieve that.

That leaves the fight for the last seat between Lynch (Labour) and Buttimer (FG) and the outcome probably comes down to the extent of the customary punishment at the polls doled out to the junior coalition partners versus the extent of the electorate's anger at the sitting government in general. Hard to call, though Paddy Power has Buttimer clear favourite for the last seat and even the SF candidate ahead of Lynch.

In the context of the formation of the next government, it appears the only issue to be voted on in the constituency is whether you want FG to govern with Labour or with others.

Paddy Power calling it:
Coveney (FG) - 1/50
McGrath (FF) - 1/10
Martin (FF) - 1/5
Buttimer (FG) - 1/4
Ó Laoghaire (SF) - 4/7
Lynch (Lab) - 10/3

5 odds-on candidates for four seats - PP isn't sticking the neck out here!

[deiseach]

if we could factor in bookies odds that would be helpful as well 

I'm no gambler, but the value bet in Waterford has to be Mary Butler.

John Deasy (Fine Gael) 1/50
John Halligan (Ind) 1/40
David Cullinane (Sinn Fein) 1/9
Paudie Coffey (Fine Gael) 4/11
Mary Butler (Fianna Fail) 4/5
Ciara Conway (Labour) 3/1
Una Dunphy (AAA-PBP) 25/1
Mailo Power (Renua) 25/1

[Donnellys Hollow]

Kildare South (3 Seats):
Martin Heydon (FG) and Seán Ó Fearghaíl (FF) should be safe enough here. Mark Wall (Lab) will have a battle on to save his father's seat. Fiona O'Loughlin (FF) should poll well in Newbridge but she might struggle to attract enough support in the outlying rural areas.

Kildare North (4 Seats):
Catherine Murphy (SD) will top the poll comfortably. Labour will be targeting Kildare North as one of the few constituencies where they are likely to retain. Emmet Stagg (Lab) has a fairly loyal core support built up throughout the constituency. There's little chance Fine Gael will hold their two seats although it will be interesting to see which sitting TD loses out. Bernard Durkan (FG) is reliant on more of a rural support in the west of the constituency whereas Anthony Lawlor (FG) will poll strongly in the Naas area. If there is a high turnout on election day I think Lawlor has a chance of outpolling his party colleague. Fianna Fáil should pick up a seat here with James Lawless (FF) the more likely of their two candidates. Frank O'Rourke (FF) should do well around Celbridge/Leixlip/Maynooth but he probably doesn't have a high enough profile throughout the rest of the constituency.

The only potential surprises I could foresee across the two constituencies would be Wall possibly losing out in Kildare South and Durkan possibly losing out in Kildare North. I can't see Sinn Féin or any of the loony left candidates making much inroads in the county.

Kildare South: Heydon (FG), Ó Fearghaíl (FF), Wall (Lab)
Kildare North: Murphy (SD), Stagg (Lab), Lawlor (FG), Lawless (FF)

[Declan]

Meat East - 3 seats

TDs elected in 2011:
Dominic Hannigan (Lab), Regina Doherty (FG), Shane McEntee (FG)
2013 by-election to fill Shane McEntee's seat: Helen McEntee (FG)

Fine Gael TD Shane McEntee's death in 2012 meant a by-election a few months later which saw his daughter Helen keep his seat.
FG have it split between McEntee in the North and Doherty in the South of the county - Hannigan is in trouble as the inevitable backlash against the smaller coalition partner with probably Byrne who lost his seat in the last election best place to regain his seat despite the constituency changes that remove some of his base in Duleek into Louth

Runners and Riders are:

FF Thomas Byrne Senator
FG Regina Doherty Outgoing TD
DDI-NCM Ben Gilroy
LAB Dominic Hannigan Outgoing TD
IND Sharon Keogan
WP Seamus McDonagh
FG Helen McEntee Outgoing TD
GP Seán Ó Buachalla
SD Aisling O'Neill
SF Darren O'Rourke Councillor

Mr Power seems to agree with my prediction - http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-constituencies?ev_oc_grp_ids=2228344

So I'm genuinely wondering what's the point in voting

[deiseach]

So I'm genuinely wondering what's the point in voting

Civic duty.

[Declan]

Civic duty.

I know deiseach and I've always voted but I genuinely am struggling this time around because I can't see it making any difference. The average voter turnout in General Elections goes between 65 -75% so at least one in 4 eligible people never bother 

[Rossfan]

Ros/Galway odds
Naughten 1/33
Fitzmaurice 1/25
Hopkins 2/9
Murphy 5/2
Cake and the SF childeen 4/1.
cake hasn't been added to FF yet while I think Hopkins isn't as cut anddried as those odds suggest.

[seafoid]

Ros/Galway odds
Naughten 1/33
Fitzmaurice 1/25
Hopkins 2/9
Murphy 5/2
Cake and the SF childeen 4/1.
cake hasn't been added to FF yet while I think Hopkins isn't as cut anddried as those odds suggest.

Are they all Ros people?