General Election 2016

[AZOffaly]

In Tipperary as well, it should be noted that as well as going to a single 5 seater, a good portion of the North has been lopped off and assigned to the new 3 seater Offaly Constituency. It's bad news for those people up around Lorrha and Cloughjordan et al but it might be terrible news for Alan Kelly as he'd have garnered a fair few of those votes in the past. It does seem wrong. There's a candidate, Joe Hannigan, who is (in)famous for his role in Tipperary football and would be a popular guy. But his whole grassroots support in this consitency would be in this orphaned area of rural north Tipperary. It's hard to see how he'd get enough (or any) votes in Birr, Tullamore, Edenderry, Clara and Ferbane to be a threat to a seat. He may well get a lot of those rural votes, but he won't transfer from Offaly, so basically a whole part of North Tipp might be disenfranchised effectively.

[rrhf]

Surely cake is a blue shirt at best.

[Rossfan]

Ros/Galway odds
Naughten 1/33
Fitzmaurice 1/25
Hopkins 2/9
Murphy 5/2
Cake and the SF childeen 4/1.
cake hasn't been added to FF yet while I think Hopkins isn't as cut anddried as those odds suggest.

Are they all Ros people?

Fitz is the only herrin in that lot.

[guy crouchback]

mayo
down to a 4 seater from a 5 seater.
the 5 sitting td's are
ring  FG
kenny FG
michelle mulhern FG
john o mahoney FG
darragh calleary FF

john o mahoney has already accepted his fate and moved to  run in galway.

that will leave
ring
kenny

these two should be fine some would say that Enda's position could be a a small bit shaky but i doubt he will have a problem.

fianna fail should be able to hold a seat and calleary has preformed well as a local TD still the FF vote in north mayo has been shaky before and he can take nothing for granted. Lisa chambers  is running for FF as well and she will do better then expected, whether this helps or hinders Calleary remains to be seen.
still on the balance of probabilities ill give the seat to calleary.

this leaves one seat. michelle mulhern is the sitting TD but she really is going to struggle to hold her seat unless FG manage some bertiesque vote management. she hasn't covered herself in glory this term either. the phone calls to kenya carry on is far from forgotten around here.

rose conway walsh from Sinn fein has a real chance if SF have a good election,  Dr Jerry Crowley ( was an independent Td before)   has declared he is running  and he could hurt her, this would in theory give Lisa Chambers FF half a chance of sneaking in.

the other Independents presently declared would be unlikely to make any serious inroads.

Fine Gael could go from 4 to 2 in Mayo.

[Farrandeelin]

Good synopsis guy. Can't see FG getting 3 from 4 this time myself.

[Syferus]

Ros/Galway odds
Naughten 1/33
Fitzmaurice 1/25
Hopkins 2/9
Murphy 5/2
Cake and the SF childeen 4/1.
cake hasn't been added to FF yet while I think Hopkins isn't as cut anddried as those odds suggest.

Are they all Ros people?

Fitz is the only herrin in that lot.

For a Fancy Dan Fitz isn't a bad lad. Had a big shadow to get out of replacing Ming but he's done it with gusto. Apparently he was a no-nonsense keeper back in the day too.

Denny is as good a 'straight' politician as there in the country. One of the few you can genuinely say is a good man.

[Farrandeelin]

It should also be noted that a chunk of south Mayo is lumped in with the Galway West constituency. There was a lot of anger with the name Galway West in that part of Mayo, I'm not sure if they renamed the constituency Galway West/South Mayo. I know Éamon Ó Cuiv refers to it with the two names, if you get me.