There you are,Nolan /RTE poll tonight

[Maguire01]

An interesting take on this:

Newton Emerson ‏@NewtonEmerson  2h2 hours ago
Left wing think-tank concedes united Ireland would need a right-wing economy. Also, debunks SF's subvention denial. http://www.nerinstitute.net/blog/2015/11/06/the-fiscal-implications-of-irish-unity/

[armaghniac]

What the 6 counties needs is a functioning economy, it is unlikely that the shape of that functioning economy would be much different form the 26 counties and so not an issue in unity. Unfortunately it is operating in handout mode and content to stay that way.

This poll occurred at a particular point in time. There is a lot of discussion about the ROI economy, so much so that most people in NI are more aware of its fortunes than the UK one. In recent years there has been a certain Jeremiah quality to much of this discussion. But over the years 2015-2017 the ROI will grow by 7% more than UK, there will be a lot of talk of restored pay, lower taxes, new initiatives, investment and the like.  The UK will do moderately well, but NI will be increasingly expected to bring its expenditure in line with places like Wales and there will not be much in the way of lower taxes, new initiatives, investment and the like. Not that any of this solves the problem, but more reflective folk might wonder why their lot are delivering so much less than those in the 26.

[Eamonnca1]

All this talk about reuniting Germany. How will West Germany ever afford to absorb the decrepit communist GDR?

[BennyCake]

What the 6 counties needs is a functioning economy, it is unlikely that the shape of that functioning economy would be much different form the 26 counties and so not an issue in unity. Unfortunately it is operating in handout mode and content to stay that way.

This poll occurred at a particular point in time. There is a lot of discussion about the ROI economy, so much so that most people in NI are more aware of its fortunes than the UK one. In recent years there has been a certain Jeremiah quality to much of this discussion. But over the years 2015-2017 the ROI will grow by 7% more than UK, there will be a lot of talk of restored pay, lower taxes, new initiatives, investment and the like.  The UK will do moderately well, but NI will be increasingly expected to bring its expenditure in line with places like Wales and there will not be much in the way of lower taxes, new initiatives, investment and the like. Not that any of this solves the problem, but more reflective folk might wonder why their lot are delivering so much less than those in the 26.

I'm beginning to think the poll happened at a convenient time for both governments. Knowing the state of both economies and the bailout/welfare talks etc, most people were thinking of their own affairs. It also would conveniently get rid of any talk by Sinn Fein for a border poll. For a few years anyway. Both governments don't want that!

[armaghniac]

All this talk about reuniting Germany. How will West Germany ever afford to absorb the decrepit communist GDR?

Germany is a good example, West Germans weren't bothered about unity before it happened, might not have been that keen on it afterwards, but were quite caught up in the excitement of it all at the time.

I'm beginning to think the poll happened at a convenient time for both governments. Knowing the state of both economies and the bailout/welfare talks etc, most people were thinking of their own affairs. It also would conveniently get rid of any talk by Sinn Fein for a border poll. For a few years anyway. Both governments don't want that!

If SF want a border poll than they have to do the groundwork, one part of which is bring NI public expenditure into some sort of reasonable dimension and another is promoting business in NI. They should no sign at all of even realising this.

[omaghjoe]

My biggest gripe with using the like of this is that it is using the balance sheet from the last year, which in a way is actually fair enough since they are actually using known data.
But there is two key things that it doesnt take into account.

Firstly the business transactions generated that would likely staying within an all island economy instead of leaving the north and going to England that is happening at present.

Also pretty sure (could be corrected) that the tax receipts don't include business that  dont report in NI, such as the supermarkets. But then it also appears to throw in a share of North Sea oil revenues which we wouldnt be getting in a AI senario

Anyway those two things alone would likely make a difference but I'd be 99% sure that they wouldnt put NI anywhere near back. A constructive forward looking, responsible plan would be required to do so, but the current political attitudes of "get my side all we can" and "milk the Brits for all they are worth" will only make the situation get worse. 

In any case I think that the fiscal argument will not be the key factors in a demographic vote, it will be down to the eb and flow of  nationalistic fervor within the mob when the time comes.

[michaelg]

What the 6 counties needs is a functioning economy, it is unlikely that the shape of that functioning economy would be much different form the 26 counties and so not an issue in unity. Unfortunately it is operating in handout mode and content to stay that way.

This poll occurred at a particular point in time. There is a lot of discussion about the ROI economy, so much so that most people in NI are more aware of its fortunes than the UK one. In recent years there has been a certain Jeremiah quality to much of this discussion. But over the years 2015-2017 the ROI will grow by 7% more than UK, there will be a lot of talk of restored pay, lower taxes, new initiatives, investment and the like.  The UK will do moderately well, but NI will be increasingly expected to bring its expenditure in line with places like Wales and there will not be much in the way of lower taxes, new initiatives, investment and the like. Not that any of this solves the problem, but more reflective folk might wonder why their lot are delivering so much less than those in the 26.

I'm beginning to think the poll happened at a convenient time for both governments. Knowing the state of both economies and the bailout/welfare talks etc, most people were thinking of their own affairs. It also would conveniently get rid of any talk by Sinn Fein for a border poll. For a few years anyway. Both governments don't want that!

They didn't make it to the moon either.

[LeoMc]

All this talk about reuniting Germany. How will West Germany ever afford to absorb the decrepit communist GDR?

Germany is a good example, West Germans weren't bothered about unity before it happened, might not have been that keen on it afterwards, but were quite caught up in the excitement of it all at the time.

I'm beginning to think the poll happened at a convenient time for both governments. Knowing the state of both economies and the bailout/welfare talks etc, most people were thinking of their own affairs. It also would conveniently get rid of any talk by Sinn Fein for a border poll. For a few years anyway. Both governments don't want that!

If SF want a border poll than they have to do the groundwork, one part of which is bring NI public expenditure into some sort of reasonable dimension and another is promoting business in NI. They should no sign at all of even realising this.

A very valid point. People will vote No because they are comfortable will the level of state support and benefits they receive. The Tories are trying to reduce this and SF appear to be blocking this welfare reform. If they were more cynical they would allow the deal and let the cuts bite.

[muppet]

All this talk about reuniting Germany. How will West Germany ever afford to absorb the decrepit communist GDR?

Germany is a good example, West Germans weren't bothered about unity before it happened, might not have been that keen on it afterwards, but were quite caught up in the excitement of it all at the time.

I'm beginning to think the poll happened at a convenient time for both governments. Knowing the state of both economies and the bailout/welfare talks etc, most people were thinking of their own affairs. It also would conveniently get rid of any talk by Sinn Fein for a border poll. For a few years anyway. Both governments don't want that!

If SF want a border poll than they have to do the groundwork, one part of which is bring NI public expenditure into some sort of reasonable dimension and another is promoting business in NI. They should no sign at all of even realising this.

A very valid point. People will vote No because they are comfortable will the level of state support and benefits they receive. The Tories are trying to reduce this and SF appear to be blocking this welfare reform. If they were more cynical they would allow the deal and let the cuts bite.

How? What average do they have to force the Tories to keep up the payments?

I genuinely don't know.

[Rossfan]

I suspect they wanted the cuts blocked long enough to get them through the 26 Co General Election on their pie in the Sky anti everything platform.
I presume SF will be delighted with the proposed cross border police unit to tackle all the criminal activity in the SF controlled areas??

[Applesisapples]

I suspect they wanted the cuts blocked long enough to get them through the 26 Co General Election on their pie in the Sky anti everything platform.
I presume SF will be delighted with the proposed cross border police unit to tackle all the criminal activity in the SF controlled areas??

There are no SF "controlled" areas. Before you gloat criminality is as big a problem in Dublin and other urban centres in the South.

[BennyCake]

What the 6 counties needs is a functioning economy, it is unlikely that the shape of that functioning economy would be much different form the 26 counties and so not an issue in unity. Unfortunately it is operating in handout mode and content to stay that way.

This poll occurred at a particular point in time. There is a lot of discussion about the ROI economy, so much so that most people in NI are more aware of its fortunes than the UK one. In recent years there has been a certain Jeremiah quality to much of this discussion. But over the years 2015-2017 the ROI will grow by 7% more than UK, there will be a lot of talk of restored pay, lower taxes, new initiatives, investment and the like.  The UK will do moderately well, but NI will be increasingly expected to bring its expenditure in line with places like Wales and there will not be much in the way of lower taxes, new initiatives, investment and the like. Not that any of this solves the problem, but more reflective folk might wonder why their lot are delivering so much less than those in the 26.

I'm beginning to think the poll happened at a convenient time for both governments. Knowing the state of both economies and the bailout/welfare talks etc, most people were thinking of their own affairs. It also would conveniently get rid of any talk by Sinn Fein for a border poll. For a few years anyway. Both governments don't want that!

They didn't make it to the moon either.

Erm, what?

[LeoMc]

All this talk about reuniting Germany. How will West Germany ever afford to absorb the decrepit communist GDR?

Germany is a good example, West Germans weren't bothered about unity before it happened, might not have been that keen on it afterwards, but were quite caught up in the excitement of it all at the time.

I'm beginning to think the poll happened at a convenient time for both governments. Knowing the state of both economies and the bailout/welfare talks etc, most people were thinking of their own affairs. It also would conveniently get rid of any talk by Sinn Fein for a border poll. For a few years anyway. Both governments don't want that!

If SF want a border poll than they have to do the groundwork, one part of which is bring NI public expenditure into some sort of reasonable dimension and another is promoting business in NI. They should no sign at all of even realising this.

A very valid point. People will vote No because they are comfortable will the level of state support and benefits they receive. The Tories are trying to reduce this and SF appear to be blocking this welfare reform. If they were more cynical they would allow the deal and let the cuts bite.

How? What average do they have to force the Tories to keep up the payments?

I genuinely don't know.

They didn't sign the budget . This has the effect of forcing the decision making back to Westminster who can enact the cuts whilst allowing SF to be against them. As I said "appear to be blocking the cuts".

[muppet]

All this talk about reuniting Germany. How will West Germany ever afford to absorb the decrepit communist GDR?

Germany is a good example, West Germans weren't bothered about unity before it happened, might not have been that keen on it afterwards, but were quite caught up in the excitement of it all at the time.

I'm beginning to think the poll happened at a convenient time for both governments. Knowing the state of both economies and the bailout/welfare talks etc, most people were thinking of their own affairs. It also would conveniently get rid of any talk by Sinn Fein for a border poll. For a few years anyway. Both governments don't want that!

If SF want a border poll than they have to do the groundwork, one part of which is bring NI public expenditure into some sort of reasonable dimension and another is promoting business in NI. They should no sign at all of even realising this.

A very valid point. People will vote No because they are comfortable will the level of state support and benefits they receive. The Tories are trying to reduce this and SF appear to be blocking this welfare reform. If they were more cynical they would allow the deal and let the cuts bite.

How? What average do they have to force the Tories to keep up the payments?

I genuinely don't know.

They didn't sign the budget . This has the effect of forcing the decision making back to Westminster who can enact the cuts whilst allowing SF to be against them. As I said "appear to be blocking the cuts".

Ah right. 

[Jim_Murphy_74]

At a macroeconomic level I don't think that there is a huge difference between Republic and UK.  They are similar countries in many ways.  Equally in terms of social politics they are not a million miles away.

Both countries have also similar enough views in terms of rights etc.. (notwithstanding details of charters etc..).  Certainly you are not going to get institutionalized and recognized discrimination that you have had in the past.

So fussing about costs of various setups, standard of living and dredging over past injustices doesn't advance the argument one way or another.

What for many is an issue is the comfort of being around your own.  How do you feel being surrounded by Poppy wearers or being the only one wearing it? 
Putting your children to a school of your religion? 
Parading with your own?

Frankly if there ever was a vote, I think these emotive issues will decide where the "X" goes.

/Jim.