Monaghan V Donegal Ulster Final

[J70]

Massive interest in this already round Monaghan. Real sense that this is a massive test of where this team is as many feel they are in a better place than previous years. 2013 was a case of real underdogs with nothing to lose, 2014 was still a strange one, was nearly overconfidence in some quarters but team had injuries.

This year it is closer to 2013 following Donegals performances to date and Monaghan struggling over the line rather than blowing anyone away, so they will be viewed as underdog. But its a better and fresher team than last year - Lennon and McAdam give them more physical options. McManus is better than ever and can handle the attention he gets. Kieran Hughes in great form and they can match Donegal for fitness levels but maybe not physicality, yet not a mile off them.

Should be a very interesting build up and I think it will be very close on the day once both teams get there in one piece.

No doubt that we are underdogs for this game,  but confident underdogs.

The odds are insane based on what we've seen:

Ladbrokes/PP: Monaghan 9/4 Donegal 4/9 Draw 15/2
Betfair: Monaghan 2/1 Donegal 4/11

[twohands!!!]

The odds are insane based on what we've seen:

Ladbrokes/PP: Monaghan 9/4 Donegal 4/9 Draw 15/2
Betfair: Monaghan 2/1 Donegal 4/11

Donegal look pretty much unbackable at those odds while Monaghan at 9/4 look like they might be worth a value punt.

Can't help but wonder if the amount backed on both sides to win Sam has affected the odds for this game a bit. Donegal are 9/2  to win Sam while Monaghan are 30/1 on Paddypower. I could see a fair amount of people backing Donegal for Sam while I'm not sure that many have backed Monaghan to go all the way even with the odds difference. Bookies might want to keep their exposure down in case of a Donegal win as if they win this they have one less win to win Sam than if they lose, which given Donegal's squad is likely to be a bit of a factor. Not sure if I explained this well - Maybe some mathematical betting person might be able to explain it.

Tis late and I never sleep properly with the weather.

Dublin are 10/11, Kerry are 7/2 with Mayo at 8/1

[Whitnail]

Goddamit I knew twohands!!!! was a gambler

One hand on the stats sheet
The other on the betting slip


Don't know why he don't call himself "Hands!!!" though.
The "two" part is  overkill.

[Main Street]

Massive interest in this already round Monaghan. Real sense that this is a massive test of where this team is as many feel they are in a better place than previous years. 2013 was a case of real underdogs with nothing to lose, 2014 was still a strange one, was nearly overconfidence in some quarters but team had injuries.

This year it is closer to 2013 following Donegals performances to date and Monaghan struggling over the line rather than blowing anyone away, so they will be viewed as underdog. But its a better and fresher team than last year - Lennon and McAdam give them more physical options. McManus is better than ever and can handle the attention he gets. Kieran Hughes in great form and they can match Donegal for fitness levels but maybe not physicality, yet not a mile off them.

Should be a very interesting build up and I think it will be very close on the day once both teams get there in one piece.

No doubt that we are underdogs for this game,  but confident underdogs.

The odds are insane based on what we've seen:

Ladbrokes/PP: Monaghan 9/4 Donegal 4/9 Draw 15/2
Betfair: Monaghan 2/1 Donegal 4/11

Not so insane.
What we have seen were two impressive Donegal performances followed by a bit of a stumble.
Insane was when Monaghan were evens favourite on two occasions, pre championship and after they beat Cavan. It's Monaghan who have already claimed the insane prediction tag and we'll hold onto it for a while longer.
4/9  is just about right for Donegal, don't be too meek about wearing the mantle of strong favourites. It's Monaghan who have the greater task.

[Main Street]

The loser will only get the losers of Connacht if they make it through. They can't play Munster or Leinster. They are in the B side.

Is it not so that provincial losers can only meet, if they both get through to the semi final.

The provincial loser plays a r3 qualifier winner
and then that winner meets a provincial champion.
Of course, I'm just working this one out for our challenged Donegal friends

I thought he was saying that the loser of Donegal v Monaghan could only get the winner of Connacht in the quarter final should they win their qualifier, but I see now that he said "loser" of the Connacht final.

Looking at the GAA website, the losers in Connacht and Ulster finals will play whichever pair come out of Tyrone/Meath/Armagh/Galway/Tipp/Louth/Wexford/Derry.

Then, the winners of those ties will be paired with the Connacht/Ulster winners in the quarter finals.

I have no idea if and when rematches are allowed. For example, could we be drawn with Armagh, Monaghan or Tyrone in the qualifiers or quarter final?

Presumably, at least, they wouldn't have a quarter final being a rematch of a provincial final?!

Afaics the provincial finalists cannot meet in the 1/4 final under any circumstance
The Ulster champion awaits the victor of the Connacht loser v qualifier  game
The Ulster loser, should they come through the r4 tie against a qualifier, can only meet the Connacht champion in the 1/4 final

[J70]

Massive interest in this already round Monaghan. Real sense that this is a massive test of where this team is as many feel they are in a better place than previous years. 2013 was a case of real underdogs with nothing to lose, 2014 was still a strange one, was nearly overconfidence in some quarters but team had injuries.

This year it is closer to 2013 following Donegals performances to date and Monaghan struggling over the line rather than blowing anyone away, so they will be viewed as underdog. But its a better and fresher team than last year - Lennon and McAdam give them more physical options. McManus is better than ever and can handle the attention he gets. Kieran Hughes in great form and they can match Donegal for fitness levels but maybe not physicality, yet not a mile off them.

Should be a very interesting build up and I think it will be very close on the day once both teams get there in one piece.

No doubt that we are underdogs for this game,  but confident underdogs.

The odds are insane based on what we've seen:

Ladbrokes/PP: Monaghan 9/4 Donegal 4/9 Draw 15/2
Betfair: Monaghan 2/1 Donegal 4/11

Not so insane.
What we have seen were two impressive Donegal performances followed by a bit of a stumble.
Insane was when Monaghan were evens favourite on two occasions, pre championship and after they beat Cavan. It's Monaghan who have already claimed the insane prediction tag and we'll hold onto it for a while longer.
4/9  is just about right for Donegal, don't be too meek about wearing the mantle of strong favourites. It's Monaghan who have the greater task.

My attitude towards the odds or who is favourite is irrelevant to the outcome. I just don't understand them. This game is 50/50 for me, and I expect the same for any honest observer. Monaghan have too good a track record against Donegal to be such relative outsiders.

[AZOffaly]

I'll make another stab at this, to see if I can clarify.


Section B of the qualifiers currently has reached round 2, i.e. 2B, and has the following fixtures.

Tipperary v Louth
Tyrone v Meath
Derry v Wexford
Armagh v Galway


Round 3B will have only 2 matches, featuring an open draw of the 4 winners of round 2B.

Round 4B is where the provincial losers come in. And as Connacht and Ulster Finals are designated B section games, it is the losers of Connacht and Ulster who will feature in round 4B.

They will be drawn, from a separate pot, against the winners of the 2 round 3B games.

That, then is the end of Qualifying Rounds, per se.

The Quarter Finals continue to enforce the A and B split, so the winners of Round 4B will be drawn against the winners of Connacht and Ulster. If the provincial losers manage to win their round 4B game, they will NOT be allowed play the team that just beat them in a provincial final.

A worked example.

2B
Tipperary v Louth
Tyrone v Meath
Derry v Wexford
Armagh v Galway

3B
Louth v Tyrone
Wexford v Armagh

4B
Connacht losers Mayo v Tyrone
Ulster losers Donegal v Armagh

Quarter Final
Connacht Champions Sligo v Donegal
Ulster Champions Monaghan v Mayo

[J70]

So win or lose the Ulster final, we could easily be meeting Tyrone or Armagh again.

[AZOffaly]

Yes.

[Main Street]

I'll make another stab at this, to see if I can clarify.

I think I had clarified it very simply and concisely

The Quarter Finals continue to enforce the A and B split, so the winners of Round 4B will be drawn against the winners of Connacht and Ulster. If the provincial losers manage to win their round 4B game, they will NOT be allowed play the team that just beat them in a provincial final.

The structure of the draw does not allow for the possibility of  Donegal meeting Monaghan in the 1/4 final.

4B
Connacht losers Mayo v Tyrone
Ulster losers Donegal v Armagh

Quarter Final
Connacht Champions Sligo v Donegal
Ulster Champions Monaghan v Mayo

In your example, Ulster champion Monaghan can only draw the winners of Mayo v Tyrone.
There is no other possibility.

[AZOffaly]

Yes. Exactly. That's what I said.

[J70]

People cry about the quality of football these days. Look at this passage from the 1979 Ulster Final (the goal was a decent strike, but the amount of aimless, anywhere will do kicking!)

https://vimeo.com/112911347

[Main Street]

One full-on hefty late tackle and a dangerously loose fly-kick in those 40 seconds, no wonder the ref didn't spot the pick-up from the ground, he was probably wiping blood splatter from his face.

[Main Street]

Yes. Exactly. That's what I said.

Fair enough.
I understood  that your use of the words "not allow"  more implies that a choice exists in the 1/4 final pairings and that the GAA would step in to take away the choice.
Whereas, the 1/4 final pairings are predetermined all the way in the structure of the draw, to prevent provincial finalists meeting.

[SouthDublinBro]

Can't help but wonder if the amount backed on both sides to win Sam has affected the odds for this game a bit. Donegal are 9/2  to win Sam while Monaghan are 30/1 on Paddypower. I could see a fair amount of people backing Donegal for Sam while I'm not sure that many have backed Monaghan to go all the way even with the odds difference. Bookies might want to keep their exposure down in case of a Donegal win as if they win this they have one less win to win Sam than if they lose, which given Donegal's squad is likely to be a bit of a factor. Not sure if I explained this well - Maybe some mathematical betting person might be able to explain it.

I would be happy to.

Monaghan are simply not capable of winning the All Ireland Championship.