Is Nationalism on the Decline in the North?

[Santino]

I thought they were priming MOM for the finance job?

[gallsman]

Also if Armagh's Justin Mc Nulty had done just slightly better yesterday, Newry and Armagh would also have a Unionist MP to-day.

There in lies the nationalist problem...first item on every agenda a split. Hard as it is to take some of the shit the sinners come out with they have enough good people to take my vote. The stoops would rather see Dodds/Wellls/McCrea get a vote than a shinner. you are right on the new party/direction.

That's horseshit. You can't translate SDLP voters voting for the SDLP into a preference for unionists over Shinners.

[OakleafCounty]

I'm not from the area but maybe Gildernew didn't get enough votes because she simply didn't deliver for or represent her constituency enough when she was in office.

As for this whole thread. I don't think nationalism is in decline but faith in the two nationalist parties has.

[imtommygunn]

As for this whole thread. I don't think nationalism is in decline but faith in the two nationalist parties has.

I think that statement is pretty much bang on.

[LCohen]

Too many people from a Nationalist background are content within the UK.

Strange statement. It implies both that
a) there would be an acceptable number of people from a Nationalist background that should be aontent within the UK
b) That there is somehow something wrong with being content within the UK if you are from a Nationalist background.

[LCohen]

Unionist vote has increased by approx 2% and the Nationalist vote is in decline, share down by over 3%. FST gone. Surely this is the start of the end for nationalists in the North.

But are the overall numbers down?
This could be more about Unionist parties getting better at getting their voters out.

Unionist did get their vote out. It paid dividends for them in East Belfast. It did not pay a dividend for society.

It paid a dividend for them in FST but to be honest that constituency offered very little to a voter seeking progressive representation. The result was a fight between Tomosaurus  and the invisible woman

[Maguire01]

Sinn Fein actual votes increased by 4,288 between 2010 and 2015

O' Muilleoir got over 5,000 votes in South Belfast, where they didn't stand in 2010, so strip that out and the number of votes is slightly down.

[LCohen]

I believe that Alasdair McDonnell and Gerry Adams are a big turn off for many nationalists, certainly for me they are.

Agree wholeheartedly.

On the SF side McGuinness, Conor Murphy, Michelle Gildernew and a few others mitigate the effect,

Can't see it myself. McGuiness was poor in the UTV debate

on the SDLP side Big Dolly is even worse than McDonnell.

On the SDLP side Durkan has made intelligent and dignified contributions to his constituents, political debate within NI and political discourse in Westminster on wide range of issues. A first rate politician in my view. Whether SDLP have the talent coming through to widen their appeal and to replace the last of the old guard is at best questionable and probably outright depressing

On an aside Martina Anderson was a disaster on TV last night, Reg Empty and Arlene Foster wiped the floor with her.

Anderson just doesn't have the grey matter to be in the role that she is in. An exceptional poor politician with little qalification for the role. If SF ran a donkey on a stick in the european elections they would get someone elected.

I'd agree that a UI now does not appeal to many Catholics.

And that should not be a surprise

[Maguire01]

SDLP vote has reduced by over 11,000.  Despite their catholic views on abortion etc. it kind of negates some of Tony's drivel on here.

The SDLP's problem on these issues is that they are a bit 'wishy-washy'. On marriage equality, they have some members for any some against, so nobody is happy. On abortion, they're fairly Catholic, but McDonnell made some absolutely ridiculous comments on the topic, especially considering he's a doctor.

[Maguire01]

The Westminster elections are a load of rubbish and have very little impact on the day to day running of the North. It's only a guess but I'd imagine nationalists are a lot more apathetic when it comes to voting to send MPs into a foreign parliament (or not in some cases). Sinn Fein need to transform itself into a 'fit for government' party with viable economic alternatives in the south to take the next step on the credibility ladder. This will require the removal of Adams as leader and the appointment of someone like Conor Murphy, which I can see happening before the next but one Irish election. If we have 5 years of Tory cuts in the north and Sinn Fein get their act together and ready themselves for government in 5/6 years then nationalism/republicanism will be in a much stronger place.

Not a hope. For a number of reasons.

1 - Murphy doesn't represent the clean break with the violent past that they need.
2 - No one in the south has a clue who he is.
3 - He didn't exactly impress as a Minister.

[LCohen]

Nationalist apathy is the big problem.

Apathetic nationalism doesn't really exist.

If someone believes in or aspires towards a United Ireland then they are an Irish Nationalist.

If someone from a catholic/nationalist background does believe in/aspire towards an United Ireland they are not an apathetic nationalist . They are not a nationalist at all.

[Maguire01]

I think that the Shinners have lost their way somewhat, the retention of Adams in spite of all the controversy which has tainted him of late and the insistence in promoting the likes of the Maskey's and Caral who are street wise but not very able politicians is also an issue. The Stoops are barely hanging together themselves let alone being able to get agreement with SF. A new direction is needed. I have said here before, not unlike the SNP nationalism needs to agree as a whole north and south what a UI would look like, and what protection there would be for unionists. I do think that if economically a UI made sense to many Unionists that they would vote that way.

Tony I now have reached the conclusion that an intelligent man such as yourself does not actually believe the right wing anti rights crap that you post...you are baiting us!

While I agree a new direction is needed much of what you say doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
1. Adams has effectively been gone from northern politics for years and has overseen the rise of the Party in the south.
2. Not sure which Maskey you are referring to but neither have had much of a promotion. Alex has been moved back west to make room for Mairtin O'Muilleoir (a good move) and Paul has a Westminster seat, which in SF terms isn't really a top job.
3. Caral Ni Chuilin could do better but they're not exactly bursting at the seams with experienced people in Stormont.
4. The SNP in Scotland hasn't really articulated what an independent Scotland will look like either, rather they put forward a vision or positive notion of a Scottish identity which people have bought into. It would be a waste of time and resources for SF to start putting out their all-Ireland stall for others to knock it down, and besides it's not for them to decide what a reunified state will look like.
5. The economic argument will never win Unionists over, if it did we would have had UI ten years ago.

They published a 670 page document ahead of the referendum. They articulated exactly what they wanted an independent Scotland to look like.

[LCohen]

Time for nationalist people to reflect where they are going and do they really want to go there? Into a Republic which sold them out nearly 100 years ago and treats "N Ireland" as part of its Foreign Affairs and looks upon all of us with less warmth than they do their UK Royals heroes?

SDLP and Sinn Fein have achieved little and are further alienating themselves from their core constituencies by their anti catholic stances on homosexuality and abortion etc.Just check today's Irish News letters page to see the impact this is having.

I believe Northern Nationalists need a new party that can unite the vast majority of us,but first we must decide in which direction we want to go.

Did Susan Ann White not put your views to the electoral test with predictable results?

[imtommygunn]

Nationalist apathy is the big problem.

Apathetic nationalism doesn't really exist.

If someone believes in or aspires towards a United Ireland then they are an Irish Nationalist.

If someone from a catholic/nationalist background does believe in/aspire towards an United Ireland they are not an apathetic nationalist . They are not a nationalist at all.

Semantics. Apathy at the ability of the current set of nationalist politicians to do anything positive for what they want either short or long term.

[Maguire01]

SDLP and Sinn Fein have achieved little and are further alienating themselves from their core constituencies by their anti catholic stances on homosexuality and abortion etc.Just check today's Irish News letters page to see the impact this is having.

I believe Northern Nationalists need a new party that can unite the vast majority of us,but first we must decide in which direction we want to go.

There was a woman in Tyrone standing on your side on many of these moral issues. She got 160 odd votes.

If there was to be a new Northern Nationalist party, it would have to be a secular one, with even less ties to Catholicism.