Is Nationalism on the Decline in the North?

[oakleaflad]

Snoopdog, there are many SDLP voters (and vice versa) who wouldn't vote for SF in any circumstances, so pacts are useless. People who vote are reasonably intelligent and the 2500 SDlP voters in Fermanagh/S Tyrone knew full well the implications of their decision when they were in the Polling Booth, and are indeed probably quite happy now.

Are they really? All of them? Seems to be usuns and themuns yet again. I have met people who said they voted "because that's who my ma and da voted for" or "to keep so and so out". This kind of thing really annoys me. I'm probably in a minority but I would rather these people didn't vote at all.
At the same time I wouldn't be surprised if a larger proportion of the younger intelligent voters aren't voting at all as there isn't anyone who appeals to them.

[stew]

A United Ireland

Or

An United Ireland

I think technically you're probably right on this one Bennycake. . . any grammar police in?

He is wrong!

It is A United Ireland!

[Applesisapples]

I think that the Shinners have lost their way somewhat, the retention of Adams in spite of all the controversy which has tainted him of late and the insistence in promoting the likes of the Maskey's and Caral who are street wise but not very able politicians is also an issue. The Stoops are barely hanging together themselves let alone being able to get agreement with SF. A new direction is needed. I have said here before, not unlike the SNP nationalism needs to agree as a whole north and south what a UI would look like, and what protection there would be for unionists. I do think that if economically a UI made sense to many Unionists that they would vote that way.

Tony I now have reached the conclusion that an intelligent man such as yourself does not actually believe the right wing anti rights crap that you post...you are baiting us!

[Denn Forever]

I think that the Shinners have lost their way somewhat, the retention of Adams in spite of all the controversy which has tainted him of late and the insistence in promoting the likes of the Maskey's and Caral who are street wise but not very able politicians is also an issue. The Stoops are barely hanging together themselves let alone being able to get agreement with SF. A new direction is needed. I have said here before, not unlike the SNP nationalism needs to agree as a whole north and south what a UI would look like, and what protection there would be for unionists. I do think that if economically a UI made sense to many Unionists that they would vote that way.

Tony I now have reached the conclusion that an intelligent man such as yourself does not actually believe the right wing anti rights crap that you post...you are baiting us!

public
How can Adams be a problem now that he's a TD in the Republic?

[Ulick]

I think that the Shinners have lost their way somewhat, the retention of Adams in spite of all the controversy which has tainted him of late and the insistence in promoting the likes of the Maskey's and Caral who are street wise but not very able politicians is also an issue. The Stoops are barely hanging together themselves let alone being able to get agreement with SF. A new direction is needed. I have said here before, not unlike the SNP nationalism needs to agree as a whole north and south what a UI would look like, and what protection there would be for unionists. I do think that if economically a UI made sense to many Unionists that they would vote that way.

Tony I now have reached the conclusion that an intelligent man such as yourself does not actually believe the right wing anti rights crap that you post...you are baiting us!

While I agree a new direction is needed much of what you say doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
1. Adams has effectively been gone from northern politics for years and has overseen the rise of the Party in the south.
2. Not sure which Maskey you are referring to but neither have had much of a promotion. Alex has been moved back west to make room for Mairtin O'Muilleoir (a good move) and Paul has a Westminster seat, which in SF terms isn't really a top job.
3. Caral Ni Chuilin could do better but they're not exactly bursting at the seams with experienced people in Stormont.
4. The SNP in Scotland hasn't really articulated what an independent Scotland will look like either, rather they put forward a vision or positive notion of a Scottish identity which people have bought into. It would be a waste of time and resources for SF to start putting out their all-Ireland stall for others to knock it down, and besides it's not for them to decide what a reunified state will look like.
5. The economic argument will never win Unionists over, if it did we would have had UI ten years ago.

[dec]

I think that the Shinners have lost their way somewhat, the retention of Adams in spite of all the controversy which has tainted him of late and the insistence in promoting the likes of the Maskey's and Caral who are street wise but not very able politicians is also an issue. The Stoops are barely hanging together themselves let alone being able to get agreement with SF. A new direction is needed. I have said here before, not unlike the SNP nationalism needs to agree as a whole north and south what a UI would look like, and what protection there would be for unionists. I do think that if economically a UI made sense to many Unionists that they would vote that way.

Tony I now have reached the conclusion that an intelligent man such as yourself does not actually believe the right wing anti rights crap that you post...you are baiting us!

public
How can Adams be a problem now that he's a TD in the Republic?

He is still the President of Sinn Fein.

[BennyCake]

I get the impression that unionists and their elected mp's would do anything to stay within the uk and remain "British".

Partly they want to obey whatever their masters in west minister want in case they abandon them here with these taigs, and partly they just go against everything that SF want, even if it makes perfect sense, they just can't be seen to agree with SF. This was evident with the unionists approving all these welfare cuts.

Even if it meant no jobs, inadequate education and healthcare, their constituents living in poverty etc, they will approve and go along with their British masters. This is what unionism seems to amount to.

[Oraisteach]

Tony, I imagine your're right that in FST, many SDLP voters would never consider voting FOR SF, but being a one-time SDLP voter and field worker myself, given the reality of my party having no chance and the very real possibility of a bigot like Elliott getting in, I'd be pragmatic and vote SF, not as a pro-SF ballot but as an anti UUP one. But perhaps in FST ill feelings against SF are even more deep-rooted than I know. Oops, sorry, meant to post this under the Vote thread.

For what it's worth Nationalism in the North seems a wispy wish among many, but when push comes to shove in a referendum it would evaporate as people opt for the perceived economic security of the status quo.  It is, it seems, an even flimsier notion in the South.  If, however, the Tories enact Draconian cuts, then perhaps more Northern nationalists could be enticed by a UI, but would their co-islanders want them.  Probably not. 

[T Fearon]

Oraisteach I could point out examples a lot closer to home believe me. Now does anyone think the 2,500 SDLP voters in Fermanagh? S Tyrone yesterday (these are people who took the trouble to vote remember) were not fully aware that  a) The seat was marginal B) Gildernew needed every Single vote she could get (as her victory last time was by a single vote) C) The SDLP had zilch chance of winning the seat? Yet they still opted for SDLP and didn't countenance even lending Gildernew their vote? I don't believe one of them was not fully aware what they were doing which would suggest to me that if there had been a Sinn Fein candidate and no SDLP candidate, very few of these people would have voted Sinn Fein.

As I said a new party is needed, free from baggage, to articulate a vision which can unite the vast majority of Northern Nationalists.

[T Fearon]

Also if Armagh's Justin Mc Nulty had done just slightly better yesterday, Newry and Armagh would also have a Unionist MP to-day.

[brokencrossbar1]

Also if Armagh's Justin Mc Nulty had done just slightly better yesterday, Newry and Armagh would also have a Unionist MP to-day.

Slightly better?  4000 votes better!!!

[GJL]

Oraisteach I could point out examples a lot closer to home believe me. Now does anyone think the 2,500 SDLP voters in Fermanagh? S Tyrone yesterday (these are people who took the trouble to vote remember) were not fully aware that  a) The seat was marginal B) Gildernew needed every Single vote she could get (as her victory last time was by a single vote) C) The SDLP had zilch chance of winning the seat? Yet they still opted for SDLP and didn't countenance even lending Gildernew their vote? I don't believe one of them was not fully aware what they were doing which would suggest to me that if there had been a Sinn Fein candidate and no SDLP candidate, very few of these people would have voted Sinn Fein.

As I said a new party is needed, free from baggage, to articulate a vision which can unite the vast majority of Northern Nationalists.

It really is a sad situation that 2500 people thought this was the right thing to do given that it was effectively handing victory to a man that would not spit on them if they were on fire.

The SDLP and SF need to learn from this for future elections.

[T Fearon]

If he gets them next time, (and he got 12,000 yesterday, his first time) then watch another seat fall into gleeful unionist hands

[Muzz]

Some questions being asked here that I asked myself this morning in terms of was Nationalist votes going down or if Unionst votes were going up.  Some people completely wrong in terms of the vote count for Nationalist parties being reduced and perhaps taking the % share of the vote reduction as a measure that nationalist vote count is down. 

Sinn Fein actual votes increased by 4,288 between 2010 and 2015 (2010 actual results not considering the by elections in Mid Ulster and West Belfast where their votes dropped in this).  Votes actually increased in the FST & Newry/Armagh

                                            2010   2015       Percentage
Belfast East                        817   823           0.7%
Belfast North                      12588   13770   9.4%
Belfast South                          0   5402         #DIV/0!
Belfast West                       22840   19163   -16.1%
East Antrim                        2064   2314           12.1%
East Derry                                6742   6859            1.7%
Fermanagh & South Tyrone       21304   23078   8.3%
Foyle                                       12098   11679   -3.5%
Lagan Valley                       1465   1144          -21.9%
Mid-Ulster                               21239   19935   -6.1%
Newry & Armagh               18857   20488   8.6%
North Antrim                         5265   5143           -2.3%
North Down                          250   273           9.2%
South Antrim                         4729   4699          -0.6%
South Down                        12236   12186   -0.4%
Strangford                                 1161   876          -24.5%
Upper Bann                        10237   11593   13.2%
West Tyrone                        18050   16805   -6.9%
         
Total                                       171942   176230   2.5%
         
                                          + 4,288   

SDLP vote has reduced by over 11,000.  Despite their catholic views on abortion etc. it kind of negates some of Tony's drivel on here.

                                    2010   2015       Percentage
Belfast East                      365   127          -65.2%
Belfast North                   4,544   3,338   -26.5%
Belfast South                 14,026   9,560   -31.8%
Belfast West                   5,261   3,475   -33.9%
East Antrim                   2,019   1,639   -18.8%
East Derry                           5,399   4268           -20.9%
Fermanagh & South Tyrone   3,574   2,732   -23.6%
Foyle                                  16,922   17,725   4.7%
Lagan Valley                  1,835    2,500   36.2%
Mid-Ulster                           5,826   5,055   -13.2%
Newry & Armagh          10,526   12,026   14.3%
North Antrim                   3,738   2,925   -21.7%
North Down                      680   355           -47.8%
South Antrim                   2,955   2,990   1.2%
South Down                 20,648   18,077   -12.5%
Strangford                           2,164   2,335   7.9%
Upper Bann                   5,276   4,238   -19.7%
West Tyrone                   5,212   6,444   23.6%
         
Total                                  110970   99809   -10.1%
         
                                              -11161   

[general_lee]

Ironically, 5 years of the Tories could be just the shot in the arm Nationalism in the six counties needs. The gutting of the bloated public sector, welfare reforms that will literally make people cry and the destruction of the NHS that's on the way as well as the revision of the Barnett formula will make the Republic a much, much more appealing place by 2020.

Was thinking the same - part of me isn't too annoyed on that front. Silver lining and all that.