Maigh Eo v Ciarrai, 1700, 30ú Lúnasa, Gaelic Grounds

[bucko]

Good first XV. Poor bench as usual. Like Lar I dunno where the optimism is from. Our collapses haven't been adressed. Kerry's bench to win for them.

You didn t get the selection you wanted Farr
It ll be head in hands time again I m afraid - he can hardly use him again can he? Its just cruelty.

While I wouldn t be as pessimistic as you Farr, I can see this go pear shaped. Kerry would be easier to fathom if Dec O Sull was playing quarterback. We would have the luxury of having a covering sweeper and our half backs run the channels. Knowing JH form we ll probably still see our hbs press forward leaving 3 markers on 3 Kerry forwards with acres of space to run into gain possession, turn and take on their men. If that happens we will concede heavily even if we dominate the middle third. In that scenario it wouldn t matter who marks O Donoghue because it looks like no single individual could do so successfully. Cunnifffe should be the man to do it though. Barrett just hasn t played enough to part of a 3 man full back line based on his form v Cork. I think how we set up at the back decides this one. Basically we need to double mark O Donoghue. I d start Gibbons and drop Vaughan back and play 2 inside and run the ball.

I'm betting that we'll see Kerry play far more defensively than they have so far, keep it tight then unload the bench in the last 15-20 mins. Declan O'Sullivan not starting is surprising giving how key he appeared to be to Kerry's tactics v Cork and Galway. Whether it's by design (tactical) or necessity (injury) it does take a major playmaker off the pitch. Their bench does look impressive, and if fit worryingly so. But there does appear to be question marks over Sheehan and Declan O'Sullivan (injuries), Darran O'Sullivan (an outstanding player but is he the same since the hip surgery?) and Donaghy (form). If these factors are correct it's a gamble as to how much impact the Kerry bench could have.
Ourselves, I'm hoping Freeman and Gibbons start, as per the rumours. Mainly because I believe we need some form of forward impact off the bench, be it Andy or Alan. I believe we should be starting one or the other of them but not both. Also, while his form/ confidence hasn't been great so far this year, I think Freeman might pose a problem to the Kerry full back line that they may not have been planning on, especially if O'Mahony starts there. Gibbons coming in would give more mobility around the middle, to get back and help out the full back line. I believe we can win it, but it is going to take what we showed in the third quarter v Cork for a hell of a lot longer than 15 mins.

I think it s tactical. As I said in earlier post Dec O Sull sitting deep would leave us with a spare defender. As long as we ran the ball and closed him down quick when he was in possession we could limit his influence and he would probably have to go back inside. I think Fitzmaurice is second guessing how we would set up against him and realises that O Sull would not get the time and space he did against Cork and Galway. If I were Fitzmaurice I d try and win the game like this. Actually this is what I think Fitzmaurice is expecting to happen. It s not rocket science. Mayo very predictable.

Isolate O Donoghue and maybe Geaney inside and hope Horan leaves them 1 on 1 with 2 defenders. Horan usually does that so Fitzmaurice would be fairly confident of a couple of goals early on in that scenario.

Everybody knows now that Mayo struggle against teams that get players back. Tyrone, Roscommon, Galway and Cork in the first half we found very hard to break down. Galway didn t do blanket defence too well and Cork were only doing it for the second time and we still had problems. Kerry have a much better defensive game. If we concede early goals we will be trying to run through a brick wall. Turnovers will happen and concede more soft scores on counter attack.

So if we put these 2 scenarios together it is obvious how Kerry can win. I can t see Mayo change their shape at this stage so it is probably going to be down to Kerry forwards taking goal chances that they probably will get early and often.

We still beat these teams at the end of the day. Our better spells against Galway and Cork were while they were still playing defensively, it was when Cork and to a lesser extent Galway reverted to more conventional open play that they caused more problems IMO (our lads giving the Cork backs loads of space in the last quarter to win easy short kick outs didn't help either, especially when we were closing them down earlier in the game) The flaw of playing a predominantly defensive system is that if you don't have either a good running counter attack or a good long range kick passer to exploit any turnover ball your defence wins means the likelihood of getting turned over again as you try to work out of your own half is very high, which is a big part of our game. Eventually the system gets overloaded and breaks appear. This is exactly what Dublin did to Monaghan. Declan O'Sullivan to my mind was the main out player in this Kerry defensive set up, if it's a tactical move it's a big gamble.

I don t think it s a big gamble. It s practical and Fitzmaurice knows that Mayo are a different kettle of fish than what he s faced so far. As regards beating Cork in the end - well that could have gone the other way and where would we be now? You take that win but you don t repeat the moves that allowed that close finish to happen. That should have been a coasting win.

I take your point about our best periods when Galway and Cork were playing defensively. But when you think about it that s the scary bit. Both Cork and Galway realised that they d be better off going on the offensive. Kerry will have noted that. We leave ourselves exposed at the back and are wasteful with goal chances. What s not to like about that from a Kerry point of view. Our problem as well is not so much about having a long distance kick passer ( we ve loads of counterattacking runners), we don t have many lads that can win ball and play inside. Kerry can make this a battle between the respective full forward lines and full back lines if they think they have the edge there.

In their forward line probably, although our FB has in the past played better and possibly could again Sunday. While I agree with you about our full forward line, (though the long distance kick passer is a factor here also, I've harped on here before about our inability to consistently deliver accurate 30-40 yard kick passes to our inside line) against their back line I'd still give our lads chance. A lot of Kerry supporters, from what I can see aren't too happy with O'Mahony playing full back, they seem to think his best days are behind him. Galway opened them up a few times down the middle in the quarter final, as much as we have problems in our FB line I definitely think the O'Sheas, Vaughan, Keegan, McLoughlin etc could exploit that channel in Kerry's defence.

[Jell 0 Biafra]

25/1 for 16 point plus victory for Mayo. worth a score. It ill pay for the citywest for final weekend.

Mayo should win, but you are taking the piss with this tip, right?....right?

[highorlow]

I think David Moran is carrying a shoulder injury all year. Goes to show how stuck kerry are around the middle. DOS wouldnt last the 70 or more so its either start him or impact sub him. Tactics are little to do with it.

[rrhf]

Mayo  for the burgers
Kerry for the win..
By 5

[macdanger2]

25/1 for 16 point plus victory for Mayo. worth a score. It ill pay for the citywest for final weekend.

Mayo should win, but you are taking the piss with this tip, right?....right?

Course he is, sure €20 @ 25/1 only returns 500 profit. You'd need at least a grand for the AI weekend. Stick €50 on just to be safe

[Mayo Mick]

If we can get back to last years intensity we will win this and could do a serious number on the Kingdom. If we are sloppy, give Kerry too much room then we won't be in Croke Park in September and this will be another great team that will have failed to bring Sam back. It's as simple and stark as that. My view is that we will dominate the possession stakes, show up the weaknesses in Kerry and prevail by 6/7+. No at all convinced that Fitzmaurice has unearthed players for all the positions vacated and AOM and MOS are shaky in FB line. First 20 mins vital and indeed winning the toss could be important.

[seafoid]

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/gaelic-games/gaelic-football/experienced-mayo-s-hunger-can-see-them-through-to-another-final-1.1905315?page=2

Mayo don't want last year's quarter-final decimation of Donegal to be their peak performance of this era. Nor do they want it to come tomorrow. Without Declan O'Sullivan, they shouldn't need it.

[IolarCoisCuain]

Good first XV. Poor bench as usual. Like Lar I dunno where the optimism is from. Our collapses haven't been adressed. Kerry's bench to win for them.

You didn t get the selection you wanted Farr
It ll be head in hands time again I m afraid - he can hardly use him again can he? Its just cruelty.

While I wouldn t be as pessimistic as you Farr, I can see this go pear shaped. Kerry would be easier to fathom if Dec O Sull was playing quarterback. We would have the luxury of having a covering sweeper and our half backs run the channels. Knowing JH form we ll probably still see our hbs press forward leaving 3 markers on 3 Kerry forwards with acres of space to run into gain possession, turn and take on their men. If that happens we will concede heavily even if we dominate the middle third. In that scenario it wouldn t matter who marks O Donoghue because it looks like no single individual could do so successfully. Cunnifffe should be the man to do it though. Barrett just hasn t played enough to part of a 3 man full back line based on his form v Cork. I think how we set up at the back decides this one. Basically we need to double mark O Donoghue. I d start Gibbons and drop Vaughan back and play 2 inside and run the ball.

I'm betting that we'll see Kerry play far more defensively than they have so far, keep it tight then unload the bench in the last 15-20 mins. Declan O'Sullivan not starting is surprising giving how key he appeared to be to Kerry's tactics v Cork and Galway. Whether it's by design (tactical) or necessity (injury) it does take a major playmaker off the pitch. Their bench does look impressive, and if fit worryingly so. But there does appear to be question marks over Sheehan and Declan O'Sullivan (injuries), Darran O'Sullivan (an outstanding player but is he the same since the hip surgery?) and Donaghy (form). If these factors are correct it's a gamble as to how much impact the Kerry bench could have.
Ourselves, I'm hoping Freeman and Gibbons start, as per the rumours. Mainly because I believe we need some form of forward impact off the bench, be it Andy or Alan. I believe we should be starting one or the other of them but not both. Also, while his form/ confidence hasn't been great so far this year, I think Freeman might pose a problem to the Kerry full back line that they may not have been planning on, especially if O'Mahony starts there. Gibbons coming in would give more mobility around the middle, to get back and help out the full back line. I believe we can win it, but it is going to take what we showed in the third quarter v Cork for a hell of a lot longer than 15 mins.

I think it s tactical. As I said in earlier post Dec O Sull sitting deep would leave us with a spare defender. As long as we ran the ball and closed him down quick when he was in possession we could limit his influence and he would probably have to go back inside. I think Fitzmaurice is second guessing how we would set up against him and realises that O Sull would not get the time and space he did against Cork and Galway. If I were Fitzmaurice I d try and win the game like this. Actually this is what I think Fitzmaurice is expecting to happen. It s not rocket science. Mayo very predictable.

Isolate O Donoghue and maybe Geaney inside and hope Horan leaves them 1 on 1 with 2 defenders. Horan usually does that so Fitzmaurice would be fairly confident of a couple of goals early on in that scenario.

Everybody knows now that Mayo struggle against teams that get players back. Tyrone, Roscommon, Galway and Cork in the first half we found very hard to break down. Galway didn t do blanket defence too well and Cork were only doing it for the second time and we still had problems. Kerry have a much better defensive game. If we concede early goals we will be trying to run through a brick wall. Turnovers will happen and concede more soft scores on counter attack.

So if we put these 2 scenarios together it is obvious how Kerry can win. I can t see Mayo change their shape at this stage so it is probably going to be down to Kerry forwards taking goal chances that they probably will get early and often.

We still beat these teams at the end of the day. Our better spells against Galway and Cork were while they were still playing defensively, it was when Cork and to a lesser extent Galway reverted to more conventional open play that they caused more problems IMO (our lads giving the Cork backs loads of space in the last quarter to win easy short kick outs didn't help either, especially when we were closing them down earlier in the game) The flaw of playing a predominantly defensive system is that if you don't have either a good running counter attack or a good long range kick passer to exploit any turnover ball your defence wins means the likelihood of getting turned over again as you try to work out of your own half is very high, which is a big part of our game. Eventually the system gets overloaded and breaks appear. This is exactly what Dublin did to Monaghan. Declan O'Sullivan to my mind was the main out player in this Kerry defensive set up, if it's a tactical move it's a big gamble.

I don t think it s a big gamble. It s practical and Fitzmaurice knows that Mayo are a different kettle of fish than what he s faced so far. As regards beating Cork in the end - well that could have gone the other way and where would we be now? You take that win but you don t repeat the moves that allowed that close finish to happen. That should have been a coasting win.

I take your point about our best periods when Galway and Cork were playing defensively. But when you think about it that s the scary bit. Both Cork and Galway realised that they d be better off going on the offensive. Kerry will have noted that. We leave ourselves exposed at the back and are wasteful with goal chances. What s not to like about that from a Kerry point of view. Our problem as well is not so much about having a long distance kick passer ( we ve loads of counterattacking runners), we don t have many lads that can win ball and play inside. Kerry can make this a battle between the respective full forward lines and full back lines if they think they have the edge there.

People talk about the psychological effects of all those defeats in finals. I think this is an example of those psychological effects. Mayo fans want a team that's perfect. A team that isn't perfect can be beaten, and them being beaten will break the fans' hearts if they didn't see it coming. Therefore, Mayo people over-analyse the team to see where those Achilles' heels are, to at least cushion the blow when it happens.

And I think of this reading what Moysider wrote here. "That could have gone the other way and where we would we be now?" Any one of the finals lost since 1996 could have gone the other way, and where would we be now? It's a stretch for some of them, but not so much for others. What if Colm Coyle couldn't point from seventy yards out? What if Michael Murphy hadn't scored such a quick goal?

But that's not the way we think. We see the defeats as inevitable but the wins as matters of chance, of lucky escapes, of skin-of-the-teeth jobs. And that's not good analysis. Teams win games for different reasons. Team A might be Team B on Tuesday but lose to them if they played again on Wednesday. Sport is like that. If it wasn't, what would be the point?

Kerry have much more to worry about tomorrow than Mayo, but they worry less because the defeat won't hurt them as much. At this stage, Mayo fans twitch at the very thought of the lash.

The great thing is that Horan has separated his players from that mindset. When the team crashes through, be it this year or another, that mindset will be dealt its mortal blow. If Mayo can then build on that win, the negativity will be gone forever. God hurry the day.

[Zulu]

Great post and I agree with you on all points. I don't think Mayo's fullback line is dangerously exposed and even if it is then it's the risk inherent in the high press game that Mayo and Dublin play. A more defensive approach like Donegal's reduces their scoring ability. There is not, nor ever will be, a tactic or style of play that covers all bases equally. I'd be very happy with where Mayo find themselves and they've nothing to fear going into tomorrow. If they play well they should win if they don't they won't. I expect them to perform.

[larryin89]

Ahhh will ye dry up and go and do a bit of drinkin, its in the bag , we will beat the kingdom , sin e and ye will still be thinking yer right come monday evenin , twiustin yer posts to suit like all the pundits and journos alike.

Mayo to win it handy.



Mayo Mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo
Mayo Mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo
Mayo Mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo
Mayo Mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo

Fook the kingdom

[rodney trotter]

Guillem Balague reporting that Di Maria has agreed to join United.

[Syferus]

Guillem Balague reporting that Di Maria has agreed to join United.

Mayo have no chance now.

[squire_in_navy_slacks]

Ahhh will ye dry up and go and do a bit of drinkin, its in the bag , we will beat the kingdom , sin e and ye will still be thinking yer right come monday evenin , twiustin yer posts to suit like all the pundits and journos alike.

Mayo to win it handy.



Mayo Mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo
Mayo Mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo
Mayo Mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo
Mayo Mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo mayo

Fook the kingdom

Put the booze down and get a hold off oneself

[Syferus]

Best of luck to Mayo in the next chapter of the unending quest tomorrow.

I might even shout for Shairoze or Seamus or Cian or Andy if I'm in a good mood.

[macdanger2]

Cheers syf