2011 Census

[Tony Baloney]

Eff off Tony 

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

At first and after all that has happened in this part of the world I found the "Northern Irish Only" answer odd. But Is this an acceptance after 90 odd years of partition that this is really how things will end up and that we might as well accept it. The power and  influence of media in the north does seem to have a large affect on people's psyche.  I myself feel Irish only and have been born and bred in Derry but I have always been surrounded by all aspects of Irish culture from a very early age, it is easy then to forget that this is not the case for many northern catholics. I wouldnt read into the passport thing much, thats more to do with handiness and maybe cost, but I suppose if people arent prepared to pay a few extra quid for Irish passport they are not going to vote to give up UK handouts.

Is an Irish passport not slighlty cheaper at the minute?  €88.50 using Passport Express (aaprox £70) against £72.50 for a British??

Edit:  If you go to the Irish Embassy in London it's £70.  EG told me

Didnt realise that. Well less of an excuse to get a brit one then

[God14]

At what point, if any, could we realistically achieve a Catholic majority?

[Applesisapples]

At first and after all that has happened in this part of the world I found the "Northern Irish Only" answer odd. But Is this an acceptance after 90 odd years of partition that this is really how things will end up and that we might as well accept it. The power and  influence of media in the north does seem to have a large affect on people's psyche.  I myself feel Irish only and have been born and bred in Derry but I have always been surrounded by all aspects of Irish culture from a very early age, it is easy then to forget that this is not the case for many northern catholics. I wouldnt read into the passport thing much, thats more to do with handiness and maybe cost, but I suppose if people arent prepared to pay a few extra quid for Irish passport they are not going to vote to give up UK handouts.

Is an Irish passport not slighlty cheaper at the minute?  €88.50 using Passport Express (aaprox £70) against £72.50 for a British??

Edit:  If you go to the Irish Embassy in London it's £70.  EG told me

Irish Childrens passports are cheaper. €35 for a 3 year against £60 for a 5 year.

A few young lads from here got Brit passports to go to America told me no need for a visa but they might have made it up to stop the piss been taken

No visa needed for an Irish Passport either.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

At what point, if any, could we realistically achieve a Catholic majority?

10-15 years but with dwindling family sizes it may just stay close to the 50/50 mark for a long time. The important point out of all of this is not who will vote for this or that, but thatthe time is coming where the decision will be out of the unionists hands. How  that will change their approach is going to be interesting.

[God14]

Catholic 40.76%
Protestant 41.56%
Other 0.82%
No Religion 10.11%
Religion not stated 6.75%

0.8% in it lads. We're getting there.
http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-2324-lh-37-yn-2011-sk-136-sn-Census%202011-yearfilter--

[Ulick]

At what point, if any, could we realistically achieve a Catholic majority?

10-15 years but with dwindling family sizes it may just stay close to the 50/50 mark for a long time. The important point out of all of this is not who will vote for this or that, but thatthe time is coming where the decision will be out of the unionists hands. How  that will change their approach is going to be interesting.

I dunno, it's possible it (Catholic majority) could within 10 as the natural mortality rate kicks in. 67% of those over 85 are Protestant and have so far benefited from the longevity of modern health care facilities but there is only so much modern medicine can do towards extending ones natural life span. The decrease in the Protestant population is likely to accelerate at one end as will Catholic births at the other end as Catholics dominate in the most fertile 25-44 age group borne out by majority Catholic areas having a higher 'Total Period Fertility Rate'. The next thing to watch out for is the drop in the Unionist vote. IMO unionism has been enjoying a bit of a twilight this past ten years due to the fact that the elderly are more likely to vote than the young, so obviously that 67% of over 85 year olds are going to stop voting relatively soon. That's why I'm saying with certainty that we'll never see a political unionist majority in the six counties again. The others thing, as someone on Slugger put it, while we had a Protestant majority there was no chance of a United Ireland. But now with a Protestant minority and a minority identifying as British, it's all to play for.

[screenexile]

At what point, if any, could we realistically achieve a Catholic majority?

10-15 years but with dwindling family sizes it may just stay close to the 50/50 mark for a long time. The important point out of all of this is not who will vote for this or that, but thatthe time is coming where the decision will be out of the unionists hands. How  that will change their approach is going to be interesting.

I dunno, it's possible it (Catholic majority) could within 10 as the natural mortality rate kicks in. 67% of those over 85 are Protestant and have so far benefited from the longevity of modern health care facilities but there is only so much modern medicine can do towards extending ones natural life span. The decrease in the Protestant population is likely to accelerate at one end as will Catholic births at the other end as Catholics dominate in the most fertile 25-44 age group borne out by majority Catholic areas having a higher 'Total Period Fertility Rate'. The next thing to watch out for is the drop in the Unionist vote. IMO unionism has been enjoying a bit of a twilight this past ten years due to the fact that the elderly are more likely to vote than the young, so obviously that 67% of over 85 year olds are going to stop voting relatively soon. That's why I'm saying with certainty that we'll never see a political unionist majority in the six counties again. The others thing, as someone on Slugger put it, while we had a Protestant majority there was no chance of a United Ireland. But now with a Protestant minority and a minority identifying as British, it's all to play for.

A Catholic majority in the North does not put a United Ireland into play. As I've said numerous times you have to factor in the apathy towards it, those who couldn't be bothered with the hassle etc. THEN you'll have the violent backlash from the Loyalists which will be huge.

Aside from those local issues you have the economic issues. As I've said before Ireland are a long long way off being able to afford the North. As well as that there would have to be some kind of referendum on the issue and are we really sure that our brethren in the South really want us to join them given what went on during the Presidential election.

We are as far away from a United Ireland as we've ever been!

[red hander]

Some selected administrative areas:

Antrim: (C)41.20   (P)50.48   (Other)0.93   (None) 7.39
Armagh: (C)48.36   (P)48.00   (Other)0.60   (None) 3.03
Banbridge: (C)32.02   (P)62.02   (Other)0.75   (None) 5.21
Belfast: (C) 48.58%      (P)42.30%   (Other) 1.72   (None) 7.40
Cookstown: (C)59.26   (P)37.78   (Other)0.48   (None) 2.49
Craigavon: (C)45.94%   (P)48.04%   (Other)0.91   (None) 5.11
Dungannon: (C)64.11   (P)33.03   (Other)0.56   (None) 2.30
Lisburn: (C)36.46   (P)55.92   (Other)0.84   (None) 6.78

Is the P for Dungannon Polish?

Surely Dungannon Portuguese 

As the boul Morrissey once sang...

"A rush and a push and the land that
We stand on is ours
It has been before
So it shall be again"

[Main Street]

Not that the 26 counties is anything but pale shadow of a republican identity with inequality as great as it ever has been and ever widening.

I don't know what a Northern Irish identity is for someone coming from a nationalist background.
I assume it's partitionist. Some map redrawing and decades of saying it's so, make it so.
Aspects of Britishness  being absorbed and for some of you that doesn't ring any alarm bells, just normal, even beneficial -  a perception of being a more equal citizen of the UK?

I'm sure there's something of this in it Main Street.

I'd say it would be impossible to live in the North and not be influenced by some aspects of "Britishness".  It touches everyone to some extent or other (e.g. Martin McGuinness' love of cricket )

I'm partial to bit of cricket myself. It's okay to leap on board the Irish cricket bandwagon on occasion.

Main Street, in response to your wondering on what makes someone like me have a bit of an NI identity.  There are many aspects of my culture that create affinity between myself and others in Northern Ireland who do not consider themselves Irish-Irish.  So you're probably right - it might equate to an Irish-UK identity. 

It doesn't mean I don't aspire to a single united island in the future.  But as you quite rightly say, there are undeniably some aspects of Britishness/UK-ness that I have absorbed and can make no apology for.  Why should "alarm bells" be ringing in that context?  What's to alarm me - I am what I am.

The lack of alarm suggests a state of being comfortable with it, or possibly lack of awareness that it is happening.
Irishness (fwiw), is a subjective experience. Partition was both negative and divisive, intrinsically evil with its establishment of a convenient oppressive majority. Partition is transient, I don't see this Northern Irish identity as being anything that should impede that process.
What defines the boundary of a country is not solely ethnicity, nor language nor religious affiliation, a country has to embrace divergence but it has to be a viable unit. It's inevitable that the border goes. Something that was so corrupt to begin with, cannot be transformed into something progressive. And evidence of that chronic state of dysfunction was being screamed through little broken windows

[Hound]

Catholic 40.76%
Protestant 41.56%
Other 0.82%
No Religion 10.11%
Religion not stated 6.75%

0.8% in it lads. We're getting there.
http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-2324-lh-37-yn-2011-sk-136-sn-Census%202011-yearfilter--

I wonder how the 17% of no religion is split between nationalist and unionist...

[Puckoon]

The lack of alarm suggests a state of being comfortable with it, or possibly lack of awareness that it is happening.

Perhaps the lack of alarm merely suggests that the average person in this group has other, more immediately pressing issues that they are choosing to get on with?

[nifan]

Something that was so corrupt to begin with, cannot be transformed into something progressive.

Im not sure about this as a general statement of fact

[Applesisapples]

At first I was taken aback that the response to idenity showed only "0% as Irish only, but if you look at the figures which show British as 48% there is an Irish/N.Irish combination of c.48% also, which probably equates to a fair reflection of the political makeup. Many Nationalists would have no problem calling themselves northern Irish. I think it is fair to say too that many Nationalists would have no particular urgency to rush to join a 32 County Socialist Republic. For a long time to come whether taxes are paid to Dublin or London there will be a seperate northern jurisdiction, and I would rule out the RoI rejoining a federal UK. Ironically in my opinion the biggest threat to the union at the moment is Unionists. Their antics over the summer and lately illustrate that they just don't get the meaning of equality. The more they use violence to ram Britishness down nationalist throats the further they will drive nationalists from their version of British culture. The biggest challenge facing nationalist of all hues his what type of unity can we agree on, and unlike the exclusive British Identity of Unionists it needs to embrace all aspects of Nationality. The unspoken factor or elephant in the room though is the widespread disinterest in the RoI in the north or its Nationalist minority(just about).

[Ulick]

A Catholic majority in the North does not put a United Ireland into play. As I've said numerous times you have to factor in the apathy towards it, those who couldn't be bothered with the hassle etc. THEN you'll have the violent backlash from the Loyalists which will be huge.

Aside from those local issues you have the economic issues. As I've said before Ireland are a long long way off being able to afford the North. As well as that there would have to be some kind of referendum on the issue and are we really sure that our brethren in the South really want us to join them given what went on during the Presidential election.

We are as far away from a United Ireland as we've ever been!

A Protestant and/or British majority made a United Ireland impossible. Those things don't exist any more so it's ergo it's now within the realms of possibility, not guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination but it's game on for those who want to bring it about.

Regarding the other issues, as I've said people will only engage with the issue when detail is put on the table. Economic issues are not insurmountable even under the current situation but neither you nor I know what the situation will be in ten years nor what the shape of a final settlement will look like, so to say that the South can't afford it is incorrect i.e. we don't know what "it" is yet. Besides the fact that every mainstream Party in the south favours a United Ireland and would campaign for it in a referendum, there was an Irish Times poll out the other week saying the majority of the population would favour it - a referendum would pass easily. The threat of loyalist backlash is another red herring - just look at the handful of idiots which is all they've been able to muster over the past few days - pathetic. There's no appetite for violence and as any final settlement would have to be negotiated and agreed with the unionist Parties, who's going to do the rebelling? Apathy cut's both ways. We've no way of knowing how things will turn out until the date for the border poll is set. I suspect that when the campaign for this starts in the new year that a lot more people will start to serious engage with the debate. The notion that SF are considering handing lead for the the pro-United Ireland campaign off to an independent body would also a good move in my opinion.