The Race for the ARAS.....

[deiseach]

What do you think of that account deiseach? Am I completely off base?

It's very light on activity, but I think that reflects the fact that a person of Martin McGuinness's standing doesn't spend a lot of time in the Asda. He has that much in common with a certain British octogenarian who doesn't carry money around on her person

[deiseach]

The difference could be though that once the SF election machine really ramps it up they are capable of creaing a very strong base of votes and if that is the case you never can tell.

The machine can't magic up transfers. Who is he going to get them from? Gay Mitchell's constituency (such as it is)?

[AQMP]

I think too much is being made out of the Bank account and what comes out of it.  My wife and I have seperate accounts and a joint account.  My money goes into one account her money goes into another and we pay all our DDs etc out of the other.  It means we can keep an eye easily on what is paid and needs paid etc.  Now I am not saying MMG does it like that but maybe he does.  It's a non issue but politically it has done him a lot of favours and Mitchell a bit of harm.

I personally think you are thinking too deeply about the motives of FG AZ and I doubt they would even recognise that as a tactical ploy.  I think you give them too much political credence and I just reckon Mitchell is a dummy.  I don't think he will count.  As you say Dana is a looney tune and will not figure.  Davies and Gallagher are in it to further their own profiles and have no real hope/intention of winning it. That brings it down to a 3 horse race.

I think that the 'cool' vote will taper off for Norris.  I think that the establishment are scared of the skeletons in the closet and will continue to blacken his character in the next few weeks.  I honestly believe they could cope with a 'Provo' better than a 'Queer'(this is not my view, but how they would think.)  I think it is quickly becoming a 2 horse race between Mickey and Marty.  The safe pair of leprechaun hands will win it though because he is more or less flawless in terms of scandal etc and is a decent all round kind of man.  The difference could be though that once the SF election machine really ramps it up they are capable of creaing a very strong base of votes and if that is the case you never can tell.

This election will not be won/lost on the first count.  No matter how many first preferences he gets, it's the transfers that will do for Marty.

EDIT: Beat me to it deiseach!

[AZOffaly]

I think I'll leave the Bank Account alone so. I'm obviously way too cynical. I have the same set up as yourself BC, seperate accounts that salaries come into, and joint account for mortgage etc. The thing is that my main account would show the transfers to the mortgage joint account etc. If I was trying to prove my income, I'd be publishing all my bank accounts and be able to show the movement between them. Just publishing one account proves nothing except the movements in that particular account. But anyway I'll leave it so, because most people seem to disagree with me here and I doubt I'll convince anyone why I think this was a less than conclusive 'revelation'.

I think your reading of the actual election tallies with my own. If Mitchell was FF, and the boot was on the other foot vis a vis FG, I'd have an easier time believing they were using the election to screw the opposition rather than trying to win it. Listening to Mitchell, I'm inclined to agree with you that he is just a very poor and unpresidential candidate.

[Main Street]

I watched a bit of the tv3 debate last night, nearly all the candidates stood a bit stone faced/perplexed by Browne's introduction, a woeful attempt at sarcastic humor but Mitchell could be seen laughing his head off.
I fear now he has jumped off that bridge and given much of his vote to Gallagher.

[Tubberman]

Red C/Paddy Power Poll:

Higgins 25% (+7)

Gallagher 21% (+10)

McGuinness 16 (nc)

Norris 14 (-7)

Mitchell 10 (-3)

Davis 9 (-4)

Scallon 5 (-1)

The Gallagher poll here shows that the Irish Times one was not a freak result. I'm amazed to be honest, he hasn't impressed me at all.
Mitchell is a dead duck, as is Norris. Dana was never a live duck.
Davis looks like she's got no chance either, which I'm a bit surprised at. I thought she'd get a lot of the female vote.

Should still be Michael D's to lose. I'd expect the media to start digging up dirt on Gallagher now.

[AZOffaly]

Regarding the Transfers, I think Sean Gallaghers and Dana's transfers could have some joy for Marty. Does one candidate get eliminated in each count until one candidate gets 50.1% of the vote?

If so, what order would they be eliminated?

First - Dana? - Martin McGuinness should get a few of these.
Second - Sean Gallagher? - McGuinness
Third - Mary Davis - I'd imagine these would go to Michael D, but again McGuinness might get some. Davis and Gallagher are FF Gene Pool
Fourth - Mitchell - Michael D will get most of these
Fifth - Norris - Again, Michael D I'd imagine and that will be enough to put Higgins over the line if it even gets that far.

[Declan]

I'd expect the media to start digging up dirt on Gallagher now.

Anyone who was on the national executive of FF is fundamentally unsound to my mind

[deiseach]

My oul fella has a theory that the reason Phil Hogan has been so crass about McGuinness is that he could be for the high jump should Gay Mitchell be a complete flop. It was Phil's job to ensure they had an election candidate who could pass muster. Pat Cox could have done the job but they utterly failed to prepare the party membership for his candidacy and in a fit of bolshiness they selected One Of Their Own. And now they have Mitchell, a man well suited to the Tammany Hall-style politics of Dublin city but out of his comfort zone in the more rarified atmosphere of the Presidency. If in doubt, look what happened to Alan Dukes after the debacle of Austin Currie's candidacy, something that is looking like a consul's triumph by comparison to where Mitchell is going

[muppet]

Regarding the Transfers, I think Sean Gallaghers and Dana's transfers could have some joy for Marty. Does one candidate get eliminated in each count until one candidate gets 50.1% of the vote?

If so, what order would they be eliminated?

First - Dana? - Martin McGuinness should get a few of these.
Second - Sean Gallagher? - McGuinness
Third - Mary Davis - I'd imagine these would go to Michael D, but again McGuinness might get some. Davis and Gallagher are FF Gene Pool
Fourth - Mitchell - Michael D will get most of these
Fifth - Norris - Again, Michael D I'd imagine and that will be enough to put Higgins over the line if it even gets that far.

Gallagher will not be the 2nd eliminated by the looks of it now. He could last longer than McGuinness.

[Shamrock Shore]

Charlie Flanagan reckons Mitchell will "get to the last two and win it on transfers"

I am sure he knows more about PR than that 

[highorlow]

Anyone who was on the national executive of FF is fundamentally unsound to my mind

Why?

[deiseach]

It's hard to analyse Sean Gallagher's constituency, him being such a wild card and all that. However, I find it hard to credit that someone who is making a virtue of his business credentials and is courting votes on that basis would then see his constituency gravitate towards someone who is, to put it mildly, not business friendly.

[Hardy]

The polls show 50%-odd of the electorate want an independent or "non-political" candidate. With Dana, Davis and Norris sinking, there's only one candidate left for people of that persuasion - hence the rise of Gallagher. Preferences in that constituency could fluctuate wildly, though, as the media dig the dirt and it would be no surprise to see Davis and Gallagher see-sawing in the polls.

Higgins only has to keep his mouth shut to win. However, there's no guarantee he can do that and a rush of blood to the head or nonsense to the mouth could throw everything open again. His only problem is that he has nowhere to go but down.

[sheamy]

'People of Galway, I LOVE YOU'