The Race for the ARAS.....

Started by highorlow, May 31, 2011, 11:38:16 AM

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Who will be the next President of Ireland

Davis, Mary
4 (1.9%)
Gallagher, Sean
25 (12.1%)
Higgins, Michael D
58 (28.2%)
McGuinness, Martin
102 (49.5%)
Mitchell, Gay
3 (1.5%)
Norris, David
7 (3.4%)
Scallon, Dana Rosemary
7 (3.4%)

Total Members Voted: 206

Main Street

I see there has been some discussion about McGuinness's income.
Fair enough that he has been asked to provide detail because he is promoting his relative austerity as an example.
I suspect Mitchell thought he could corner McGuinness because McGuinness (probably) is paid fully for his elected public service but he sends it directly into SF's account and they send Marty back a pittance.
Mitchell was asking for tax returns to be published but Marty couldn't do that because in his tax returns, his full salary has to be entered, instead we got an unplugged minimalist account from his bank.
Mitchell is left outmaneuvered again, grumbling away about not believing McGuinness.
Does that make any sense?

AZOffaly

Quote from: Main Street on October 06, 2011, 12:14:00 PM
I see there has been some discussion about McGuinness's income.
Fair enough that he has been asked to provide detail because he is promoting his relative austerity as an example.
I suspect Mitchell thought he could corner McGuinness because McGuinness (probably) is paid fully for his elected public service but he sends it directly into SF's account and they send Marty back a pittance.
Mitchell was asking for tax returns to be published but Marty couldn't do that because in his tax returns, his full salary has to be entered, instead we got an unplugged minimalist account from his bank.
Mitchell is left outmaneuvered again, grumbling away about not believing McGuinness.
Does that make any sense?

It does. My take on it is slightly different. (relax glens :) )

I don't think many people gave two shites about Marty's finances. Most people were willing to believe that Sinn Fein MLAs, TDs etc would pay into a Co-Op and get a wage from there, essentially. Sure the Shinners are mad in many people's eyes :D

Gay Mitchell was coming over as a petty eejit, fixated on this aspect.

But now that Martin has released *this* account, I think many people are going to be surprised that this is the bank account of any grown adult with adult responsibilities and expenditure. I don't think Marty has slush funds hidden away, but I think this is a strange release because it begs the obvious question about what other accounts may exist.

AQMP

If the Irish Times poll is any way accurate Gay has a lot more to worry about than how much Marty spends in TK Maxx.

AZOffaly

I think Mitchell is the biggest loser from this election thus far. As I mentioned earlier on, Gallagher and Davis seem to be in it for enhancing their profile, either for their business interests, or even Special Olympics Ireland if we are to be charitable to Ms. Davis.

Michael D is motoring on and will probably win.

David Norris is a half eejit anyway, but in running himself may have done a serious bit of groundbreaking for future gay candidates. At least ones that aren't as ahem, eccentric, as himself.

Martin McGuinness has emerged as a serious candidate, which in itself is remarkable considering where Sinn Fein, and McGuinness himself were 20 years ago. Sinn Fein can, if they play their cards right, become *the* defacto opposition party to a Fine Gael government. The FF party politic must be very nervous watching this play out, especially as Mitchell and FG are making such a play of it. Of course it could be a very machiavellian plot by FG, realising that Mitchell is not going to win, to drive support to SF, thus finally killing off FF. But that might be just my devious mind.

Dana is another harmless looper, with nothing to lose she hasn't lost already.

I will assume, for the moment, that Mitchell is actually waging this campaign honestly and trying to win it, instead of being very clever and throwing himself on the SF grenade (no pun intended) to benefit his own party by killing off FF. If so his behaviour, carry on and general attitude marks him out as being pretty ignorant to be honest and is definitely doing himself, personally, no favours.

Main Street

#1684
Quote from: AZOffaly on October 06, 2011, 12:18:16 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 06, 2011, 12:14:00 PM
I see there has been some discussion about McGuinness's income.
Fair enough that he has been asked to provide detail because he is promoting his relative austerity as an example.
I suspect Mitchell thought he could corner McGuinness because McGuinness (probably) is paid fully for his elected public service but he sends it directly into SF's account and they send Marty back a pittance.
Mitchell was asking for tax returns to be published but Marty couldn't do that because in his tax returns, his full salary has to be entered, instead we got an unplugged minimalist account from his bank.
Mitchell is left outmaneuvered again, grumbling away about not believing McGuinness.
Does that make any sense?

It does. My take on it is slightly different. (relax glens :) )

I don't think many people gave two shites about Marty's finances. Most people were willing to believe that Sinn Fein MLAs, TDs etc would pay into a Co-Op and get a wage from there, essentially. Sure the Shinners are mad in many people's eyes :D

Gay Mitchell was coming over as a petty eejit, fixated on this aspect.

But now that Martin has released *this* account, I think many people are going to be surprised that this is the bank account of any grown adult with adult responsibilities and expenditure. I don't think Marty has slush funds hidden away, but I think this is a strange release because it begs the obvious question about what other accounts may exist.
There is a credit card account which can cover a lot, including payment for utilities etc.
For one, the purpose of the exercise was not to display where Marty spends his income but to show the amount of income. We should not be privileged to know where and what the mcGuinness family spend their money on.
However the published account is not proof, but it passes public believability. Except of course for those nasty rat faced begrudgers :)

I can download my Bank account page in spreadsheet format, I can make changes to it, 'reformat' a few details and reduce it to Marty's level of consumer activity.

AZOffaly

So basically what Marty was 'proving' that in this one account he receives a monthly payment from Sinn Fein. Erm. Ok. Consider that proved or, at least, believable so.

I think it raise different questions that there was no need to even introduce.

Main Street

Actually no AZ,
the questions may exist in your head, but the people believe Marty when he says he receives industrial wage. The campaign has moved on and Marty is still standing while the bullets are hitting many of those around him.

AZOffaly

Quote from: Main Street on October 06, 2011, 12:50:36 PM
Actually no AZ,
the questions may exist in your head, but the people believe Marty when he says he receives industrial wage. The campaign has moved on and Marty is still standing while the bullets are hitting many of those around him.

Maybe so, and maybe I am the only one who thinks this account raises more questions than it answers, but I am one of 'the people' as well. :D And I have a vote :D

Main Street

#1688

QuoteMaybe so, and maybe I am the only one who thinks this account raises more questions than it answers, but I am one of 'the people' as well.  :D  And I have a vote  :D
And you're voting for Marty.

I rest my case.

AZOffaly

OK, so someone who is probably voting for Marty thinks this account looks odd. How would someone who is less likely to vote for him view it?

I rest my case.

Main Street

The people who vote for Marty are smarter?

AZOffaly

Quote from: Main Street on October 06, 2011, 12:56:26 PM
The people who vote for Marty are smarter?

So I'm smarter than someone who questions it, but I question it, so I'm smarter than myself. Damn it.

deiseach

Quote from: Main Street on October 06, 2011, 12:50:36 PM
Actually no AZ,
the questions may exist in your head, but the people believe Marty when he says he receives industrial wage. The campaign has moved on and Marty is still standing while the bullets are hitting many of those around him.

I believe Marty when he says he is only on the average industrial wage, even before he showed his bank account. I also believe he gives most of his earnings to Sinn Féin, which is the behaviour of a dingbat.

AZOffaly

Quote from: deiseach on October 06, 2011, 12:58:24 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 06, 2011, 12:50:36 PM
Actually no AZ,
the questions may exist in your head, but the people believe Marty when he says he receives industrial wage. The campaign has moved on and Marty is still standing while the bullets are hitting many of those around him.

I believe Marty when he says he is only on the average industrial wage, even before he showed his bank account. I also believe he gives most of his earnings to Sinn Féin, which is the behaviour of a dingbat.

What do you think of that account deiseach? Am I completely off base?

brokencrossbar1

I think too much is being made out of the Bank account and what comes out of it.  My wife and I have seperate accounts and a joint account.  My money goes into one account her money goes into another and we pay all our DDs etc out of the other.  It means we can keep an eye easily on what is paid and needs paid etc.  Now I am not saying MMG does it like that but maybe he does.  It's a non issue but politically it has done him a lot of favours and Mitchell a bit of harm.

I personally think you are thinking too deeply about the motives of FG AZ and I doubt they would even recognise that as a tactical ploy.  I think you give them too much political credence and I just reckon Mitchell is a dummy.  I don't think he will count.  As you say Dana is a looney tune and will not figure.  Davies and Gallagher are in it to further their own profiles and have no real hope/intention of winning it. That brings it down to a 3 horse race.

I think that the 'cool' vote will taper off for Norris.  I think that the establishment are scared of the skeletons in the closet and will continue to blacken his character in the next few weeks.  I honestly believe they could cope with a 'Provo' better than a 'Queer'(this is not my view, but how they would think.)  I think it is quickly becoming a 2 horse race between Mickey and Marty.  The safe pair of leprechaun hands will win it though because he is more or less flawless in terms of scandal etc and is a decent all round kind of man.  The difference could be though that once the SF election machine really ramps it up they are capable of creaing a very strong base of votes and if that is the case you never can tell.