six county elections 05/05/2011

[Ulick]

It's the same all over the north. Loughside in Craigavon Council has roughly the same electorate as Portadown yet it only gets 5 councillors to the 7 for Portadown.

[MW]

The proposed reform of local government was supposed to address these issues but the DUP (Poots) got cold feet when they saw the stats and realised that the proposed inclusion of Dunmurry into the city would hand nationalists an absolute majority in one fell swoop. The best option from their point of view was to long-finger it as much as possible and hope it would go away. Inevitably though, the city will have nationalist majority representation, whether Dunmurry is included or not.

You know I was wondering about this the whole way home tonight.  Looking at the overall figures throughout the 6 counties, the Unionists have far more seats than what would be proportionate to the numbers voting.  I think overall, SF only got 20000 less votes (correct me if I'm wrong) than the DUP, yet they have almost 40 less seats - doesn't figure in any maths I was taught.  The only explanation for it is that the boundaries are still severely messed up.  This definitely needs addressing!!!

Another explanation would be turnout.

[omagh_gael]

Is there a website where you can see the comparisons between population and number of council seats available across the whole of the north?

[glens abu]

I think the transfer of the IRSP and Eirigi candidates votes helping to elect SDLP candidates in Belfast  speaks volumes.

The SDLP's candidate in Upper Falls was only 69 first preferences short of the quota and was pushed over the line with transfers from the second SDLP candidate (and probably some votes from the Alliance Candidate and DUP candidates eliminated at the same time). But the SDLP had more than a full quota in Upper Falls. And all seats were filled before the Éirígí votes could be transferred.

Éirígí's transfers in Lower Falls were 244.6 to Sinn Féin and only 112 to the SDLP, however the transfers to SF were split across a number of their candidates. But the SDLP candidate ended 137.85 votes ahead of the defeated SF candidate and as such, didn't actually need those 112 transfers.

So basically, the transfers from the Éirígí candidates did not help elect the SDLP at all.

No problem Maguire,I was only talking about Lower Falls and North Belfast,was told IRSP in North and Eirigi in Lower falls transfered to SDLP my apoligies.Still 112 transfering to SDLP instead of a former Armagh prisioner seems strange for a Republican group to do and 80 transfering from IRSP to SDLP instead of going to a former hunger striker is also strange,I was not trying to slight the SDLP as it has nothing to do with them .I just think it shows that the agenda of these micro groups is more to do with trying to stop Sinn Fein than anything else as they have always hated the SDLP so why transfer to them.

[Evil Genius]

It's the same all over the north. Loughside in Craigavon Council has roughly the same electorate as Portadown yet it only gets 5 councillors to the 7 for Portadown.

That's as may be, but any luck on the following, Donagh Ulick?

"... any chance of seeing your evidence that a "disproportionate" number of Alliance voters transfer to Nationalist candidates, rather than Unionist ones (post #517, earlier)?

And...         ... have you any response to my post #518?"

[Evil Genius]

I think the transfer of the IRSP and Eirigi candidates votes helping to elect SDLP candidates in Belfast  speaks volumes.

The SDLP's candidate in Upper Falls was only 69 first preferences short of the quota and was pushed over the line with transfers from the second SDLP candidate (and probably some votes from the Alliance Candidate and DUP candidates eliminated at the same time). But the SDLP had more than a full quota in Upper Falls. And all seats were filled before the Éirígí votes could be transferred.

Éirígí's transfers in Lower Falls were 244.6 to Sinn Féin and only 112 to the SDLP, however the transfers to SF were split across a number of their candidates. But the SDLP candidate ended 137.85 votes ahead of the defeated SF candidate and as such, didn't actually need those 112 transfers.

So basically, the transfers from the Éirígí candidates did not help elect the SDLP at all.

No problem Maguire,I was only talking about Lower Falls and North Belfast,was told IRSP in North and Eirigi in Lower falls transfered to SDLP my apoligies.Still 112 transfering to SDLP instead of a former Armagh prisioner seems strange for a Republican group to do and 80 transfering from IRSP to SDLP instead of going to a former hunger striker is also strange,I was not trying to slight the SDLP as it has nothing to do with them .I just think it shows that the agenda of these micro groups is more to do with trying to stop Sinn Fein than anything else as they have always hated the SDLP so why transfer to them.

Might that be evidence that SF's formidable ability to get their core vote out in their areas nonetheless disguises the fact that they may be the least "transfer friendly" of all the parties?

That is, other voters may have various reasons for transferring preferences to another party, whether within their "tribe" or outwith, but very few ever want to transfer to SF?

I would be interested in knowing whether the figures bear out this conjecture.

[ziggysego]

Independent MLA David McClarty is NOT returning to the UUP. Two seats on the Executive for the Alliance.

[Ulick]

Independent MLA David McClarty is NOT returning to the UUP. Two seats on the Executive for the Alliance.

And unionism loosing a seat at the top table 

[omagh_gael]

Independent MLA David McClarty is NOT returning to the UUP. Two seats on the Executive for the Alliance.

Good stuff (not that I take delight in seeing a unionisst party lose an executive seat). Mc Clarty seemed like a decent aul spud during the election coverage and appeared outraged by Elliot's outburst in Omagh. This won't go down well with UUP members as McClarty was making sounds about the possibilty of rejoining the UUP fold before the scum incident.

Well played Tom.

[Tony Baloney]

Ulick, can we expect Catriona to get the road next week? I'm keeping everything crossed. Is big O'Dowd in the running for a seat at the table? Always comes across as a good operator on tv so id like to see him replace Ruane or possibly Murphy who didn't help himself with his handling of NIW during the winter. Gildernew is no great shakes either.

[gallsman]

Eammon Mallie on Twitter saying talk of a move against Elliot is "thick in the air". What a disastrous.

[Maguire01]

Ulick, can we expect Catriona to get the road next week? I'm keeping everything crossed. Is big O'Dowd in the running for a seat at the table? Always comes across as a good operator on tv so id like to see him replace Ruane or possibly Murphy who didn't help himself with his handling of NIW during the winter. Gildernew is no great shakes either.

The only possible reason they would keep Ruane would be to piss people off.

Word is that they'll go for 3 new Ministers.

[Tony Baloney]

Eammon Mallie on Twitter saying talk of a move against Elliot is "thick in the air". What a disastrous.

Was on Newsline that he is to apologise to "decent Nationalists" but no SF or their supporters.

[Ulick]

Ulick, can we expect Catriona to get the road next week? I'm keeping everything crossed. Is big O'Dowd in the running for a seat at the table? Always comes across as a good operator on tv so id like to see him replace Ruane or possibly Murphy who didn't help himself with his handling of NIW during the winter. Gildernew is no great shakes either.

Have no special insight, but I'd say so. Personally I'd keep O'Dowd, Gildernew and Kelly as ministers and try out one of the younger members as junior minister in OFMDFM. SF being SF, the appointments will be made with a view to long term strategy so they'll want to boost the profile of people in particular areas and broaden the managerial experience of the less experienced - given that, it's practically impossible to predict who's going where. Big John is bound to be there as he's the best out of all those without ministerial experience and he's in an area they'll expect gains next time. Gerry Kelly will have a senior role as he's the most trusted, liked and feared all-in-one - maybe Party whip or something. I guess Michelle O'Neill for junior minister in OFMDFM simply on the basis McGuinness will need someone he trusts and gets on with (same constituency). After that I haven't a clue - they're not exactly spoilt for talent. Would love to see wee Barry get the culture job, but as it gets only 1% of the budget, it's a symbolic role no one except the unionists are really interested in.   

[Ulick]