Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[Zapatista]

Remember this beauty - The last thing the Country needs is an election. We need stability blah blah

[Hardy]

Here in Cork South Central it looks entirely plausible that FF will hold on to their two seats and that there'll be no change in the current 2FF, 2FG, 1 LP line-up.

Their two TDs, Micheál Martin and Micheal McGrath were both elected on the first count the last time.

If the latest opinion poll ratings are applied as first preference vote projections, FG would get 2 quotas, FF 1.6 and LP 1. That leaves FG needing another quota in transfers to a relatively weak candidate (probably Jerry Buttimer) to get the last seat, with few enough coming from labour (probably only 1 candidate), while FF need only 0.4 of a quota in transfers to get the second seat for McGrath, who is very strong on the ground – no dogfight unattended, monthly glossy newsletter claiming credit for every new street lamp, etc.

So if the polls are to be believed, sixteen thousand of my neighbours are prepared to give a No. 1 to the gang that brought you Seanie FitzPatrick, Patrick Neary, David Drumm and the IMF. Unvelievable, really.

[seafoid]

I can't see FF getting 35 seats if they are on 17% in the polls. They will be wiped out in Dublin and commuterland.

[guy crouchback]

Re: Election in Jan 2011!
« Reply #38 on: Today at 02:07:25 PM »
   Reply with quote
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on Today at 02:00:40 PM

    Quote from: AbbeySider on Today at 01:55:10 PM

        Quote from: Peter Solan the Great on Today at 12:35:24 PM

            This is how i think it will run in Mayo. If others do it by their constituency we'll get a better view of who total number for each party

            1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
            2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
            3. John O Mahoney. (Fine Gael)
            4. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
            5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)


        You think O Mahoney will get his seat? I think he could be in for a surprise, hope he is.
        As muppet said Jerry Cowley could be back in the frame.

        1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
        2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
        3. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
        4. Jerry Cowley
        5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

    I for one dont want to see Cowley get next or near the Dail again. According to lads i know down his way, he lost a lot of support with his Shell to sea misjudgement. Another reason i dont want to see him in there is he is always at the top of the medical card earnings year in year out, which for a GP in rural Ireland makes me suspicious.


I think John will get in. He will get a lot of transfers from Enda and Ring. One man I forgot about though is Jim Higgins, if he runs O'Mahony wont get in. I doubt he will leave his cushy number in Europe though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayo_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)

higgins would have to go before the fg convention so it would be him or O Mahoney, and as you say he will hardly leave europe.  i have a feeling O Mahoney may struggle this time out. Michelle Mulherin (FG)  may pip him this time.  Kenny and Ring are shoe ins and FG should take a third seat unless cowley can rise on a labour tide. Bev is bev and if she could get elected as an independent she should manage it again. calleary could be in trouble. he is a good local TD and really has doen little wrong on a local basis but remember he did not make the quota last time when he should have breezed in, a hig profile independent in north mayo could damage him. excluding Kenny and Ring mayo will be very interesting.

[DUBSFORSAM1]

The budget has to be passed for the good of the country.....worst comes to worst it can be changed in the new year with the new govt.

Explain that, because, I have heard that being pedalled several times, but I have no idea why that is the case.

Few reasons -

1 - We need to make 6bn in cuts anyway with the IMF/Europe demanding it and if we don't do this then our costs of borrowing will skyrocket which will cost us a fortune
2 - We will look like a laughing stock if we don't pass a budget as all parties will have to campaign on the basis of massive cuts anyway.
3 - We can do a supplementary budget or draft a new budget in Feb/March anyway to replace the current one that we put through.

No-one can come up with a valid reason not to pass it or which will save us money.

[muppet]

The budget has to be passed for the good of the country.....worst comes to worst it can be changed in the new year with the new govt.

Explain that, because, I have heard that being pedalled several times, but I have no idea why that is the case.

Few reasons -

1 - We need to make 6bn in cuts anyway with the IMF/Europe demanding it and if we don't do this then our costs of borrowing will skyrocket which will cost us a fortune
2 - We will look like a laughing stock if we don't pass a budget as all parties will have to campaign on the basis of massive cuts anyway.
3 - We can do a supplementary budget or draft a new budget in Feb/March anyway to replace the current one that we put through.

No-one can come up with a valid reason not to pass it or which will save us money.

De - Fault.

[DUBSFORSAM1]

The budget has to be passed for the good of the country.....worst comes to worst it can be changed in the new year with the new govt.

Explain that, because, I have heard that being pedalled several times, but I have no idea why that is the case.

Few reasons -

1 - We need to make 6bn in cuts anyway with the IMF/Europe demanding it and if we don't do this then our costs of borrowing will skyrocket which will cost us a fortune
2 - We will look like a laughing stock if we don't pass a budget as all parties will have to campaign on the basis of massive cuts anyway.
3 - We can do a supplementary budget or draft a new budget in Feb/March anyway to replace the current one that we put through.

No-one can come up with a valid reason not to pass it or which will save us money.

De - Fault.

Problem is if we default all money in our banks will be withdrawen and no-one will loan us a penny......this means that we will have to make cuts of 15-20bn next year alone and we will be relying on cashflow from tax to pay our day to day spending...

[Capt Pat]

I warned the Greens about going into government with Fianna Fail, but I forgot to warn Fianna Fail about sleeping with the enemy, it will be the end of them and I thought it might be the end of the greens.

[Lar Naparka]

This is how i think it will run in Mayo. If others do it by their constituency we'll get a better view of who total number for each party

1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
3. John O Mahoney. (Fine Gael)
4. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

I can't see Fine Gael winning four seats and they certainly won't take the first four.
I'm confident that Mickey will easily top the poll but the said Mickey is a maverick who concentrates on getting no.1s and refuses to consider any form of vote management. He told Johnno in no uncertain terms that if wanted votes he could go and look them himself. AS you know, Mickey isn't too concerned about the finer points of English grammar but he usually gets his message across all the same.
He ain't too fond of Enda either and I don't imagine that a high percentage of his second preferences will transfer to the man in Milebush.
It's highly likely that the pair of them will leave all others well behind and nail down the first two seats but if Enda needs 3 or 4 counts to get elected, I can't see both of  the others winning seats. I think Mulherrin will fare out better than O'Mahony. A few FG activists in Swinford tell me that she's been  preparing her campaign since the last election and is going all-out  to  prove a point as she feels the party was only using her to secure her second preferences for O'Mahony. Johnno can't depend on a bounce from his football connection this time. If anything, he stands to lose support from the last election.
I'd bet on FG taking three, with Calleary getting in on the fourth or fifth count and there's a great chance that an independent, possibly Cowley, will succeed also.

[Bogball XV]

The budget has to be passed for the good of the country.....worst comes to worst it can be changed in the new year with the new govt.

Explain that, because, I have heard that being pedalled several times, but I have no idea why that is the case.

Few reasons -

1 - We need to make 6bn in cuts anyway with the IMF/Europe demanding it and if we don't do this then our costs of borrowing will skyrocket which will cost us a fortune
2 - We will look like a laughing stock if we don't pass a budget as all parties will have to campaign on the basis of massive cuts anyway.
3 - We can do a supplementary budget or draft a new budget in Feb/March anyway to replace the current one that we put through.

No-one can come up with a valid reason not to pass it or which will save us money.

But what's the point of having a budget now, when, one assumes, it will be replaced by a supplementary budget in February?

I would prefer FF to call a halt to any budgetary decisions for a few weeks, have an election now with each party setting their budgetary proposals out and let us vote based on their proposals (presuming the feckers actually do what they say this time)

[Hardy]

The budget has to be passed for the good of the country.....worst comes to worst it can be changed in the new year with the new govt.

Explain that, because, I have heard that being pedalled several times, but I have no idea why that is the case.

Few reasons -

1 - We need to make 6bn in cuts anyway with the IMF/Europe demanding it and if we don't do this then our costs of borrowing will skyrocket which will cost us a fortune
2 - We will look like a laughing stock if we don't pass a budget as all parties will have to campaign on the basis of massive cuts anyway.
3 - We can do a supplementary budget or draft a new budget in Feb/March anyway to replace the current one that we put through.

No-one can come up with a valid reason not to pass it or which will save us money.

But what's the point of having a budget now, when, one assumes, it will be replaced by a supplementary budget in February?

I would prefer FF to call a halt to any budgetary decisions for a few weeks, have an election now with each party setting their budgetary proposals out and let us vote based on their proposals (presuming the feckers actually do what they say this time)

It appears a FG-led government would let the budget stand. This is what Michael Noonan said yesterday - they would implement the four-year plan as regards deficit targets, but from Budget 2012 on the would put their own stamp on it as regards the revenue/expenditure balance.

[guy crouchback]

Quote from: Peter Solan the Great on Today at 12:35:24 PM

    This is how i think it will run in Mayo. If others do it by their constituency we'll get a better view of who total number for each party

    1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
    2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
    3. John O Mahoney. (Fine Gael)
    4. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
    5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

I can't see Fine Gael winning four seats and they certainly won't take the first four.
I'm confident that Mickey will easily top the poll but the said Mickey is a maverick who concentrates on getting no.1s and refuses to consider any form of vote management. He told Johnno in no uncertain terms that if wanted votes he could go and look them himself. AS you know, Mickey isn't too concerned about the finer points of English grammar but he usually gets his message across all the same.
He ain't too fond of Enda either and I don't imagine that a high percentage of his second preferences will transfer to the man in Milebush.
It's highly likely that the pair of them will leave all others well behind and nail down the first two seats but if Enda needs 3 or 4 counts to get elected, I can't see both of  the others winning seats. I think Mulherrin will fare out better than O'Mahony. A few FG activists in Swinford tell me that she's been  preparing her campaign since the last election and is going all-out  to  prove a point as she feels the party was only using her to secure her second preferences for O'Mahony. Johnno can't depend on a bounce from his football connection this time. If anything, he stands to lose support from the last election.
I'd bet on FG taking three, with Calleary getting in on the fourth or fifth count and there's a great chance that an independent, possibly Cowley, will succeed also.

thats a fair assessment lar but what about Bev, FF are going to struggle to get 2 seats and i can see her fair better the calleary.  I wonder will FF run 2 or 3 candidates. its hard to see which is the better strategy.

[seafoid]

FF might only pull in 10% once the full awfulness of the budget and the economic collapse
enters the national consciousness.

[Kerry Mike]

Elsewhere, gardaí have ejected a number of people from Government Buildings.

The group, made up mainly of Sinn Féin supporters, had pushed their way through the gates during a protest against the Government at lunchtime.

The protest is continuing outside the gates. Mr Ó Snodaigh accused gardaí of being heavy-handed during the protest.

Never was the quote "the lunatics taking over the asylum" more appropriate. 

[Peter Solan the Great]

Over on Polictics.ie they are saying that Cowen will be heading to Aras tonight to dissolve the Dail.