Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[Zapatista]

Any chance of adding a poll or will the nordies just ruin it voting for SF?

[Peter Solan the Great]

Any chance of adding a poll or will the nordies just ruin it voting for SF?

Any serious poll would leave those nut jobs out.

[Zapatista]

Any chance of adding a poll or will the nordies just ruin it voting for SF?

Any serious poll would leave those nut jobs out.

Leave the nordies alone.

[demusicman]

According to reports over the weekend it appears Brian Cowan will resign when the budget is pushed through.Mary Hanniffin is now firm favourite to lead Fianna Fail into the next election.
I.M.F. NOW RULING IRELAND.
Lets not forget when we are canvassed for our vote in the forthcoming election that we will be voting for somebody that will have about as much power in the Dail as our County Councillors currently have.

[Shamrock Shore]

Can the OP add 'None of the above' or 'abstain' in the poll.

I've never not voted by choice. I missed one poll in the 26 years I've had the vote which I think was a local election and my vote was stuck in Longford and I was in Dublin.

But in Jan 2011 I will have a hobson's choice in Dun Laoghaire.

Eamon Gilmore and his No 2
Some FG goon. Dinosaur Barrett won't run again.
Mary Hanafin (her performace last night was a disgrace) and the minister for high chairs, Barry Andrews
Richard Boyd Barret (who is clueless)
Chemical Cuffe (ditto)

Sadly if FG get the ducks in order they could get two seats. Labour won't get two. Not on your nelly.

So in Dun Laoghaire, on the assumption the Hairy Lesbian Party don't run a candidate, thereby disappointing Hardy, I predict:

FG 2
Labour 1
FF 1

Andrews and Chemical to be consigned to the skip

[magpie seanie]

I predict in Sligo/North Leitrim that it will go 2 FG, 1 FF. I'd like to think that FF will get what they deserve for abandoing our hospital (they called it fighting the fight on the inside  ) on top of everything else but I suspect there are enough gobshites to getthem one seat. SF and/or Lab will challenge for a seat though so its not entirely beyond the realms of possibility that FF could get wiped.

[An Gaeilgoir]

Can the OP add 'None of the above' or 'abstain' in the poll.

I've never not voted by choice. I missed one poll in the 26 years I've had the vote which I think was a local election and my vote was stuck in Longford and I was in Dublin.

But in Jan 2011 I will have a hobson's choice in Dun Laoghaire.

Eamon Gilmore and his No 2
Some FG goon. Dinosaur Barrett won't run again.
Mary Hanafin (her performace last night was a disgrace) and the minister for high chairs, Barry Andrews
Richard Boyd Barret (who is clueless)
Chemical Cuffe (ditto)

Sadly if FG get the ducks in order they could get two seats. Labour won't get two. Not on your nelly.

So in Dun Laoghaire, on the assumption the Hairy Lesbian Party don't run a candidate, thereby disappointing Hardy, I predict:

FG 2
Labour 1
FF 1

Andrews and Chemical to be consigned to the skip

SS Thats done now. Also what about Richard " down to capitalisim" Barrett, we will cause havoc in DL as usual.

[Lone Shark]

In Offaly I would still expect 2 FF to return, probably Cowen with Moloney. Fleming will lose out, but sadly a national vote of 20% would still translate to 35% here, and that will push two of them over the line. FG will actually struggle to hold two since Olwyn has walked, but there still is a big FG vote in her area and it has to go somewhere. I expect them to nominate someone like Nicola Hogan, and between getting a FG vote and getting a vote from North Offaly who haven't had a TD since Ger Hyland, she should get in. Charlie Flanagan safe as houses, probably on the first count.

The fifth seat is interesting. The three contenders are Brian Stanley (SF), John Leahy (Ind) and Sean O'Brien (Lab). Stanley is getting good reviews over in Laois and a lot of those people who have the view of "They're all the same" could go his way. O'Brien is the best Labour can muster, but Laois/Offaly is typical of their problem - they simply do not have a presence in the area, and one old timer county councillor and a couple of town councillors between the two counties says it all. They'll get a vote, but O'Brien doesn't have enough about him at all to get the seat in my view. If Labour can win this one, they will get well over 50 seats nationally.

I'd say myself that John Leahy would be the narrow favourite for the fifth seat right now. He's been quite prominent since his election to local council, he has good GAA connections, he's quite energetic, young and well meaning, and he'll mop up a lot of votes around Birr who won't have a good candidate.

So my guess for Laois Offaly is 2FG, 2FF, 1 Ind.

[Canalman]

The 2 Dublin constituencies I am familiar with will go imo

DUBLIN SOUTH

3 FG
1 LAB
1 FF

Gain for both FG and Lab. (from last GE)

DUBLIN S CENTRAL
2 LAB
1 FG
1 FF
1 SF

Gain for Lab. Can see though a Socialist/People before Profit candidate winning a seat from SF /the last FF candidate( leaving FF with zero).

[Shamrock Shore]

AG

He got a bounce the last time as the auld wans thought he was 'cute' and, ah, he was adopted. Shur his mammy was/is an actress and his grandad was in Glenroe.

He almost got in but he hasn't a baldy this time. His record in Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown county council is one of spoiling and waffling. That will come out on the doorsteps by savvy Labour/FG/FF canvassers

[Zapatista]

Dublin West - 1FF - 1FG - 1LB - 1SP

Probably one of the more boring constituencys, preety straight forward result I'd say. Going from a 3 to a 4seater.

Brian Lenihan will prob top the poll followed closely by Leo Varadkar. Joan Burton will come in 3rd and Joe Higgans will ditch Europe and take the fourth seat.

I think Higgans is foolish if he does this. The local SP counciller could take this seat leaving him in Europe. Higgans could retain the EU seat but I don't think another SP co-op could do that. Higgans could end up losing out on an EU seat in order to promote himself in the Dail.

[Billys Boots]

Dublin North has a young population in essentially a commuter belt, with a rural hinterland.  Hard to see how it'll go at present but FF will lose heavily - both current seats are probably in ejopardy:

Sitting TDs:
Sargent (Green)
Reilly (FG)
O'Brien (FF)
Kennedy (FF)

Clare Daly (Socialist) has been close before and may take a seat.  Brendan Ryan (Labour) may claw back his brother's seat (Sean Ryan) too, probably to the detriment of Greens/FF.  Not much young blood in any of the parties showing their faces heretofore.  Reilly might drag another FG with him; if he does there may be no FF seats here!  Right now, I'd predict:

Reilly (FG)
Ryan (Labour)
Daly (Socialist)
O'Brien (FF)

[An Gaeilgoir]

Jackie Healy Rae has now pulled out and will not be voting for the budget, i think, all the roads around Kerry must be built by now. Students and pensioners are now his concern, i wonder are they the same students that we was handing drink vouchers out to after mass the Sunday before the election (allegedly). Lowry has said the same thing now as well. One Gombeen gone,a few more to go and more to be elected back in Jan!

[Zapatista]

There'll be an election before christmas. The budget won't pass. I've a funny feeling FF are co ordinating this more than they are letting on.

[demusicman]

Healy Rae and Lowry still playing Irish Politics by saying Fianna Fail cannot rely on their support. As yet they have not said they will vote against the budget.