North Korea vs. South Korea: Who Wins If They Go to War Once More?

[Hedley Lamarr]

North Korea vs. South Korea: Who Wins If They Go to War Once More?
March 12th, 2010 | Author: ADM


I've been gunning through the final pages of Bradley K. Martin's Under the Loving Care of the Heavenly Father: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty, blowing through the sections about potential wartime scenarios between the two rival Koreas.

Martin's chats with North Korean defectors have been extremely revealing. His several interviewees, the majority of them former staff members of the DPRK's million-man army, offer up their experience on why North Korea might have the decisive edge over the more affluent south if push comes to shove and the guns suddenly start to rumble.




I'll list some the more compelling bits (sorry, I hate this word, but I couldn't think of anything better) which I'd read about yesterday:

comparative training regimes: the prevailing opinion amongst North Korea's military higher-ups and amongst its frontline soldiers is that their southern cousins are "soft around the middle." Affluence and widespread capitalism has made the ROK's army weaker, and northerners will have the edge in hand-to-hand conflict because they have so much more to gain by fighting. North Korea maintains training facilities for its senior espionage troops where the latter are steeped in Southern lifestyles, ways, and culture which they will use in infiltrating the South from within, ripping its guts out from the inside. The installations are one-quarter scale models of Seoul streets, complete with real South Korean money, people, and music, and where spies are taught to speak with Southern accents and to dress with Southern clothes in order to blend in seamlessly. Their indoctrination is quite frightening, actually.
Northern victory — assuming the Americans (and the Chinese) don't get involved: North Korean officers are taught to believe that what saved the South during the Korean War was the timely involvement of the joint UN/US expeditionary force, which pulled the rabbit out of the proverbial hat for Syngman's ROK army. Provided the DMZ-occupying US Army keeps out of any future conflict, the North is convinced that a swift military victory will be theirs.
the next "Korean War" will be far bloodier and costlier than the 1950's conflict: Pyongyang knows the South has a significantly lower tolerance for the casualties and havoc a war will wreak on its society. The South – as one of the world's preeminent globalized economies – has so much more to lose in this conflict than does the North. Given modern-day weapons of warfare, if push comes to shove, the destruction caused by a future "Korean War" will be catastrophic, much more so than the previous battle on the peninsula.
food – or lack of it — will play a decisive factor in a future conflict: Kim Jong-il (aka Bam Bam) and the DPRK's staff higher-ups know how strong a motivator food can be to their mainline fighters. Troops in North Korea's army have seen what the chronic lack of access to basic foodstuffs has tragically caused to their parents and families. By rumbling massively across the border into the South, they are well-aware of the plentiful food stocks located just a few short miles across the DMZ. Food will be one of the primary motivators towards violent reunification, the prize at the end of the line in any future intra-Korean war. Food will propel North Korea's troops southward. As for the South? What do they have to find on the northern side of the DMZ? Northern land – for the most part – is unarable. DPRK has no known natural resources other than its people. It imports most of its industry's key inputs. DPRK society is deeply indoctrinated. All the South can look forward to is spending money in North Korea, rather than plundering its spoils and turning a wartime profit. You see where this is headed?


artillery shelling will also play a decisive role in any future conflict: Have a look at the map above and note how close the South Korean capital, Seoul, is to the DMZ. North Korea has spent the past several decades digging itself into the cliffs overlooking the DMZ and ROK's major cities a few miles south of the border. Since they own the high ground, all the North needs to do it lob its artillery shells over the border to just wait out the South's eventual collapse; that is, presuming the Americans don't get involved and air power does not turn the tides of the battle on the field.
comparative training regimens: In North Korea, the grunts are subjected to arduously long hikes that seem to never end. They suffer from poor sanitation in their barracks and also in the field. Their heavily-soiled clothing and uniforms are seldom replaced (once every two years for their winter outfits, twice every year in the summer). Their food is just a grade above starvation rations. Their entire ten years of service can basically be said to be marked by abject privations and such a stark deprivation that it profoundly affects their way of thinking. Moreover, over the course of ten years, North Korea's troops have zero sexual outlet. Homosexuality is rampant amongst North Korea's military ranks. So the thought of millions of defeated, pure-blooded South Korean women dangling food and awaiting them just across the border acts as a colossally strong incentive to win, and quickly.
better to die in battle than to die of hunger: further to our food discussion; food is used manipulatively by the regime to affect the troops' thinking. Given the limited access to supplies in North Korea – even for its army – soldiers are compelled to steal from citizens to survive. The ten years of a soldier's service is characterized by theft and violence just to get by. South Korean troops, meanwhile, enjoy ample rations with snacks (one of Martin's interviewees emphasized this). DPRK troops would prefer to take their chances rather than die suffering in North Korea.
in North Korea, everyone is mentally-prepared for war: the constant drumbeat to war sounds daily in Pyongyang. The current "Dear Leader"" Kim Jong-il is the military lightning rod of the nation, whipping up his troops and citizens into constant fits of frantic frenzy about US imperialism, the dangerous threat of becoming a US flunky, and the threat that capitalist South Korean culture will have on the "pre-eminence" of their North Korean society. There are few moments in the day when North Koreans aren't reminded of this potential calamity. If the South wins, North Korea – as most North Koreans today recognize it – will completely cease to exist. Loss to the South is therefore wholly unconscionable.


The experts, on balance, seem undecided about the outcome of a future war. But once we lay out the facts on the table as we have above, things come into clearer focus.


This is scary!!

[Celt_Man]

Northern victory — assuming the Americans (and the Chinese) don’t get involved:

Now that is a pretty damn big assumption right there...

and we all know about assumptions

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg4trPZFUwc

[Hedley Lamarr]

Northern victory — assuming the Americans (and the Chinese) don't get involved:

Now that is a pretty damn big assumption right there...

and we all know about assumptions

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg4trPZFUwc

I think it puts America in quite a dilemma, as it is they are stretched in Iraq and Afganistan. Could the people afford another war? They are on a sticky wicket with China as it holds a lot of its debt......I realy think it's a no win situation.....damned if you do damneif you don't.   

[David McKeown]

Are American not technically speaking still at war with North Korea? At least as far as house and senate resolutions are concerned?

[magickingdom]

Northern victory — assuming the Americans (and the Chinese) don't get involved:

Now that is a pretty damn big assumption right there...

and we all know about assumptions

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg4trPZFUwc

I think it puts America in quite a dilemma, as it is they are stretched in Iraq and Afganistan. Could the people afford another war? They are on a sticky wicket with China as it holds a lot of its debt......I realy think it's a no win situation.....damned if you do damneif you don't.   

every thread with you come back to good ole uncle sam doesn't it? dont worry about it we can afford another war, you'll need to start worrying if we ever cant tho...

[Hedley Lamarr]

every thread with you come back to good ole uncle sam doesn't it? dont worry about it we can afford another war, you'll need to start worrying if we ever cant tho...

Do you not think that it would be of concern for America?

[stew]

every thread with you come back to good ole uncle sam doesn't it? dont worry about it we can afford another war, you'll need to start worrying if we ever cant tho...

Do you not think that it would be of concern for America?

Anti American sentiment aside does no one else think that somehting needs to be done to help the good people of North Korea, they are starving and this monster is spending all kinds of money on developing weapons and building palaces for himself whilst his people are barely able to sustain life.

The UN has a lot to answer for and I hope to God somebody takes that piece of shite out in North Korea, he is a complete and utter nutter and has the ability to destabilize the region, he isnt worth it.

[Tony Baloney]

every thread with you come back to good ole uncle sam doesn't it? dont worry about it we can afford another war, you'll need to start worrying if we ever cant tho...

Do you not think that it would be of concern for America?

Anti American sentiment aside does no one else think that somehting needs to be done to help the good people of North Korea, they are starving and this monster is spending all kinds of money on developing weapons and building palaces for himself whilst his people are barely able to sustain life.

The UN has a lot to answer for and I hope to God somebody takes that piece of shite out in North Korea, he is a complete and utter nutter and has the ability to destabilize the region, he isnt worth it.

Agree.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

He forgets one thing when he says the South stomach for casualties is much lower, much the same as the U.S., U.K., France or even Ireland our Western sensibilities would probably go out the window, when your arse is in the grinder it would probably become a fight to the death. Note the U.K. in World War II. France actually lost the capactity to fight to the death overall by protecting the British rearguard at Dunkirk and in a way it was their fight to the death to allow the British and some French to escape to come back again. Of course the resistance kicked in. Ireland did not fight to the death in the War of Independence because we actually gained territory and believed we would use the territory gained to start the war again when we where in a position of greater strenght, a minority disagreed and in a way the Civil War was their fight to the death. The U.S. has not experienced this in modern times, but I'm sure they would be no different.

South Korea knows it would not have Irelands territory gain argument (therfore holding ground) or Frances offshore army UK-British Commonwealth-Free French- Poles. You could argue they could hold off for American, NATO or UN liberation, but if the Americans or someone else did not think it worth while when they could have stopped it why would they bother with reduced odds.

A sucessful North Korean invasion or even a North Korean defeat which resulted in mass destruction in the South with no American-NATO-UN or perhaps even Japaneese intervention would embolden China to attempt to take Taiwan . It the U.S. are not willing to defend South Korea against North Korea they certainly won't bother taking on China. It may be argued too that they wouldn't help in a Korean conflict because of fear of Chinese intervention but in Taiwan China is already in the mix so the US might go in because there was no threat to avoid, the treat is already there and may be perieved as unavoidable, so the U.S. just goes in.

A lot less likely, what happens in a Korean conflict with the US and China involved. China opens a second front in Taiwan, they take Taiwan then negotiate to pull out of Korea allowing the US to overrun the North. Both claim victory and in a way the big winners are the U.S. and China.

[delboy]

When i read about the differing conditions of how the troops are treated i wasn't thinking those bad ass, treated like shit N. koreans are going to kick ass, i was thinking they are going to surrender at the first opportunity to the S. koreans.

I don't for a minute believe they are brainwashed to love the leader for whom they will lay down their life etc, given half a chance they would defect in droves to the South, i know i would.

[Hedley Lamarr]

The evidence that a North Korean torpedo sank the South Korean gunboat Cheonan last March would seem to be conclusive. Certainly the international community led by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a former South Korean foreign minister, has been open in its condemnation of the Pyongyang regime. However, calls for yet further sanctions are pretty well meaningless. China holds the key to resolving the standoff with this maverick and isolated regime and for the moment Beijing is merely counseling calm.

Officially the Chinese want to examine for themselves the evidence produced by an international team that included American, Australian and British experts. Of particular significance will be the remains of what is said to be a North Korean torpedo found near the sunken wreck of the Cheonan. It might yet be argued that this was fired at some date before the loss of the South Korean patrol boat. Certainly the North Koreans are vigorous in their denial of responsibility and say they want to send their own team to examine what has been found.

None of this really matters because Pyongyang's brinkmanship with its nuclear weaponry and its missile tests has rendered the regime entirely untrustworthy. This is a country whose rulers survive by maintaining a state of siege in a highly militarized society where fully one million of its 24 million inhabitants is part of the armed forces. Only China has the power to bring the regime of Kim Jong-il to heel and even to an end. At the moment there seems no inclination to do either.

Yet Beijing's calculations may well be changing. Historically the Korean peninsular has fallen within the Chinese sphere of influence though later occupied by the Japanese. Today's two Koreas are still officially at war, more than half a century after a conflict which saw US-led United Nations forces backing the South pitted against Chinese and Soviet forces backing the North. Washington's commitment to the defense of the South is why the US military is still stationed on the peninsular and so represents a challenge to the re-establishment of Chinese influence there.

If China decides that the economic and geopolitical benefits of abandoning the Pyongyang regime and the reunion of Korea outweigh the cost of sustaining it, then it would still be a relatively simple matter to halt the flow of essential supplies including oil ad power and food which enable the North to survive. If however Beijing delays too long, the window of opportunity may close, since Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal is in reality as much of a threat to its neighbor China as it is to other surrounding states. The regime has already threatened war if further sanctions are introduced as a result of the Cheonan sinking.

China would certainly not welcome any such eventuality, especially if it might itself at some point be characterized as Pyongyang's enemy. It indeed looks increasingly as if in its tolerant relations with North Korea, China is tossing a live grenade from hand to hand, ever less sure of when it might explode.

[stew]

North Korea vs. South Korea: Who Wins If They Go to War Once More?

Nobody wins, we all lose.

[southdown]

When i read about the differing conditions of how the troops are treated i wasn't thinking those bad ass, treated like shit N. koreans are going to kick ass, i was thinking they are going to surrender at the first opportunity to the S. koreans.

I don't for a minute believe they are brainwashed to love the leader for whom they will lay down their life etc, given half a chance they would defect in droves to the South, i know i would.

I think they are completely brain washed.  There was a documentary on a few months ago when journalists smuggled a North Korean into the South to meet her long lost sister.  The North Korean was brain washed to the extreme and would not stay in the south.  I think the BBC ran the programme.

If the Yanks and the Chinese get involved there is a good chance of nucleur war IMHO.

i don't think an armistice was ever signed after the last Korean war (coud be wrong!)

[delboy]

When i read about the differing conditions of how the troops are treated i wasn't thinking those bad ass, treated like shit N. koreans are going to kick ass, i was thinking they are going to surrender at the first opportunity to the S. koreans.

I don't for a minute believe they are brainwashed to love the leader for whom they will lay down their life etc, given half a chance they would defect in droves to the South, i know i would.

I think they are completely brain washed.  There was a documentary on a few months ago when journalists smuggled a North Korean into the South to meet her long lost sister.  The North Korean was brain washed to the extreme and would not stay in the south.  I think the BBC ran the programme.

If the Yanks and the Chinese get involved there is a good chance of nucleur war IMHO.

i don't think an armistice was ever signed after the last Korean war (coud be wrong!)

I take your point but one swallow doesn't make a summer, likewise i've seen a few shows that managed secret filming in N. korea, the people interviewed seemed pretty pissed off with the current regime, they shut up and toe the line out of shear necessity not because of any love for the regime . 
History and experience tells us that people are only to glad when these sorts of oppresive regimes fall apart, i see no difference why this one should be any different.

[Hedley Lamarr]

SEOUL, South Korea: North Korea declared Tuesday that it would sever all communication and relations with Seoul as punishment for blaming the North for the sinking of a South Korean warship two months ago.

North Korea also announced it would expel all South Korean government officials working at a joint industrial park in the northern border town of Kaesong, the official Korean Central News Agency said in a dispatch monitored in Seoul late Tuesday.

Tensions were rising on the divided Korean peninsula in the wake of an investigation report blaming North Korea for a torpedo attack that sank the Cheonan warship on March 26, killing 46 South Korean sailors.

South Korea's military restarted psychological warfare operations — including blaring radio broadcasts into the North and placing loudspeakers at the border to blast out propaganda — to punish the North for the provocation. The South is also slashing trade and denying permission to North Korean cargo ships to pass through South Korean waters.

North Korea struck back by declaring it would cut all ties with the South until President Lee Myung-bak leaves office in early 2013. South Korean ships and airliners will be banned from passing through its territory and the North will start "all-out counterattacks" against the South's psychological warfare, the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification said in a statement carried by KCNA.

The North's committee called the moves "the first phase" of punitive measures against South Korea, suggesting more action could follow.

South Korea's Unification Ministry said it had no immediate comment on the North Korean statement. However, spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo noted the statement referred only to eight South Korean officials staying at the Kaesong complex, not some 800 South Korean company managers and workers.

Yonhap news agency said that suggested the North had no intention of completely shutting down the Kaesong park, as South Korea also decided to keep the complex intact.

Earlier, one Seoul-based monitoring agency reported that North Korea's leader ordered its 1.2 million-member military to get ready for combat. South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the report.

The North flatly denies involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan, one of the South's worst military disasters since the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, and has warned that retaliation would mean war. It has threatened to destroy any propaganda facilities installed at the heavily militarized border.

A team of international investigators, however, concluded last week that a torpedo from a North Korean submarine tore apart the Cheonan.

North Korea is already subject to various UN-backed sanctions following earlier nuclear and missile tests, and the steps announced by Seoul were seen as among the strongest it could take short of military action.

The US has thrown its full support behind South Korea's moves and they are planning two major military exercises off the Korean peninsula in a display of force intended to deter future aggression by North Korea, the White House said. The US has 28,500 troops in South Korea.

South Korea also wants to bring North Korea before the UN Security Council over the sinking. UN

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Monday he expects the council to take action against North Korea, but China — North Korea's main ally and a veto-wielding council member — has so far done little but urge calm on all sides.

In Beijing, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said she had "very productive and very detailed" discussions with Chinese officials but could not say if any progress had been made in convincing the Chinese to back UN action.

"No one is more concerned about peace and stability in this region as the Chinese," she told reporters. "We know this is a shared responsibility, and in the days ahead we will work with the international community and our Chinese colleagues to fashion an effective, appropriate response." Chinese State Counselor Dai Bingguo, speaking at a news conference with Clinton, called for "relevant parties" to "calmly and properly handle the issue and avoid escalation of tension." As part of its propaganda offensive, South Korea's military resumed radio broadcasts airing Western music, news and comparisons between the South and North Korean political and economic situation late Monday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The military also planned to launch propaganda leaflets by balloon and other methods on Tuesday night to inform North Koreans about the ship sinking.

In coming weeks, South Korea also will install dozens of loudspeakers and towering electronic billboards along the heavily armed land border to send messages urging communist soldiers to defect to the South.

On Tuesday, North Korean state media cited the powerful National Defense Commission as saying the North's soldiers and reservists were bracing to launch a "sacred war" against South Korea.

The North's military also claimed Tuesday that dozens of South Korean navy ships violated the countries' disputed western sea border earlier this month and threatened to take "practical" military measures in response.

North Korea often issues fiery rhetoric and regularly vows to wage war against South Korea and the US It put its army on high alert following a November sea battle with South Korea near where the Cheonan went down in March. The Koreas also fought bloody maritime skirmishes in the disputed area in 1999 and 2002.

Seoul-based North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity said Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il last week ordered his military to get ready for combat.

The group, citing unidentified sources in North Korea, said the order was read by Gen. O Kuk Ryol, a Kim confidant, and broadcast on speakers installed in each house and at major public sites throughout the country last Thursday, hours after the multinational report blaming North Korea for the sinking was issued in Seoul.

The South Korean military said it had no indication of unusual activity by North Korea's military.