the next 12 all-Irelands

[seafoid]

I read somewhere that since 1998 the all-Irelands have been split as follows : 7 to the cats, 4 to the Rebels and 1 to tipp.
7 is some haul in such a short time period , only 1 short of the combined historical achievement of Galway and Offaly added together. 

How do you think the next 12 all-Irelands will be split ? Have Offaly or Galway or any of the other triers got a hope of getting their shit together or will it be another 12 years of the Old Firm ?

[Asal Mor]

Good idea seafoid. Obviously Kilkenny will continue to be successful at all levels because hurling is life down there. But it's unlikely they'll do what they've done over the past decade again, no matter how many great hurlers they produce. It's a freakish thing to dominate to that extent.  Maybe if Cody, Henry, tommy and co stay around for another 12 years,  though hopefully they'll go and give the rest of us a chance.

Tipp nearly  did it last year with some brilliant young hurlers and should be strong for a few years to come.
It's been 22 years of hurt for Galway county teams now. We've seen so many phenomenal minors washed up by their early 20's. We've seen our club teams, minors and U-21's(to a lesser extent) cantering to All - Irelands, while our senior teams have often just died without a struggle. One of hurling's great mysteries. There were some positive signs last year, and going into Leinster will toughen us up for August and September. It's hard to imagine Joe Canning will go through his career without an All - Ireland.

Cork should mount a strong challenge this year but the underage talent isn't flowing through as you'd expect. Still they will never be too far away.

I think Clare are starting to come again and Waterford should continue to produce good young hurlers like Maurice Shanahan as the charisma of their team over the last 10 years must have done wonders for the game at underage level there.On the downside a lot of great players will be retiring in the next couple of years.

Dublin are also starting to improve. I doubt they'll win an All-Ireland in the next 5 years but if they continue to improve they might get there a bit further down the line.

On a sad note I can't see where Wexford, Limerick or Offaly will get their next All i Ireland from. Offaly have a very small pick and their success of the 90's was built around a few sets of brothers who were very special. What are the odds of Offaly getting another bunch like that? Pretty long i'd say. Limerick and Wexford are a long way off at senior level and will have to look to build for the very long term.
As for the rest - Antrim Laois and everyone else - they can't win All - Irelands but lets hope they progress and the Ring & Rackard cups have been a great help in that regard.

Here's my guess for the next 12 years
Kilkenny: 4
Tipperary: 3
Galway : 3
Cork: 1
Clare : 1

Maybe optimistic from a Galway point of view but the potential is there.
I realise this is all mad guesswork and if anyone were to read this post in 12 years time i'd probably sound like a moron.

[AZOffaly]

I can't see Clare winning one, but I suppose 12 years is a long time. It only took 5-8 years for Offaly's minors of 1986/1989 to morph into Senior winners.

[seafoid]

Cork will definitely come back and Tipp should win a few all-Irelands. KK will probably win at least 4. If Galway can manage one they could be good for a few more but it's a big ask to get the heads right.  Maybe playing in Leinster will add the missing ingredient.  I'd love to see King's county getting back into the groove and Wexford or Dublin too. 

[longrunsthefox]

It'll be a lot of Tipp and Kilkenny again. Galway might nick about two. After that aren't too optmistic for others although Cork are bound to come good in that length of time. Would love to see Dubs come though but... well I suppose12 years is a long time... (possibly the worst post i've ever put on the Board  )

[Farrandeelin]

I'd love to see Liam come to a more Northern location. But that DEFINITELY won't happen in the next 12 years.

[deiseach]

The spread of All-Ireland's is dependent on the actions on one man - Brian Cody. Successful teams tend to grow old together and fall apart together - see the Kerry team of Mick O'Dwyer - but Cody hasn't a shred of attachment to his squad and turfs them out the moment he senses they aren't up to it - see the way he treated Charlie Carter where he faced down an entire county. If Cody keeps going for twelve years, expect Kilkenny to win 9/10 All-Ireland's. If Cody decided in the morning that he'd had enough (ha!), Kilkenny would do well to win two or three.

[longrunsthefox]

I'd love to see Liam come to a more Northern location. But that DEFINITELY won't happen in the next 12 years.

It would be incredible. The outpouring of emotion would be something else. Sadly like yourself I can't see it either.

[seafoid]

12 years is enough time for a county to start at the beginning and give it bhfaca tu with a development plan that takes a group of 10 year olds or several groups and builds a hurling infrastructure for them and takes them through all the underage groups and up to minor and u-21 and beyond. There is no reason why any county that wasn't interested couldn't put a structure in place that would deliver an All-Ireland in 12 years. You would have to be fadbraithnitheach which goes against all the thinking in most of the sporting world but if you look at football clubs that do it , it's do-able. Even Mayo could win an all-Ireland in hurling if they got organised.  If not in 12 years, after how many years? a lot of it is in the head innit. How many counties build year after year ? Very few. It's more slash and burn.     

[AZOffaly]

12 years is enough time for a county to start at the beginning and give it bhfaca tu with a development plan that takes a group of 10 year olds or several groups and builds a hurling infrastructure for them and takes them through all the underage groups and up to minor and u-21 and beyond. There is no reason why any county that wasn't interested couldn't put a structure in place that would deliver an All-Ireland in 12 years. You would have to be fadbraithnitheach which goes against all the thinking in most of the sporting world but if you look at football clubs that do it , it's do-able. Even Mayo could win an all-Ireland in hurling if they got organised.  If not in 12 years, after how many years? a lot of it is in the head innit. How many counties build year after year ? Very few. It's more slash and burn.     

100% agree. I suppose, though, that one of the obstacles regarding implementing development plans, is that the senior county team, or at least the minors, have to be going well to give the whole thing momentum. Spending money on big name coaches is not in itself sustainable, but if it gives the bounce effect to a development structure that's already in place then it is a huge bonus. At the moment it does seem as if there is a high focus on 'quick fixes' at senior level, while not giving development the attention it deserves. It has to be both I'd suggest.

I don't think it's any coincidence that the best 'development' conveyer belts seem to come from places that are already strong. It takes a lot of work to break the cycle, and some counties that managed to do that, i.e. Offaly and Clare, have wasted the opportunity to build on it.

[bredaghgael86]

kilkenny will win 5, tipp will win 3, cork will get two, waterford will get one and DOWN will get one too.

[lilpaulie85]

tipp will get 3 so will kilkenny. Waterford will get 1 so will Galway and i think cork will grab 2.

[Bord na Mona man]

I can't see Clare winning one, but I suppose 12 years is a long time.

In their favour they have a decent under 21 side to draw from and they never fear the likes of Kilkenny. Add in that tinge of Clare madness, which helped them to the summit in the 90s...and you'd never know.

[Bord na Mona man]

The spread of All-Ireland's is dependent on the actions on one man - Brian Cody. Successful teams tend to grow old together and fall apart together - see the Kerry team of Mick O'Dwyer - but Cody hasn't a shred of attachment to his squad and turfs them out the moment he senses they aren't up to it - see the way he treated Charlie Carter where he faced down an entire county. If Cody keeps going for twelve years, expect Kilkenny to win 9/10 All-Ireland's. If Cody decided in the morning that he'd had enough (ha!), Kilkenny would do well to win two or three.

There is the other possibility of a Cody clone emerging in another county.
I could be wrong, but at the moment Liam Sheedy looks like he has a big future ahead of him.
Tipp moved up to another level last year and it did remind me of 1999 when it was clear Kilkenny had done the same.

[gallsman]

Galway and perhaps Clare will be the only ones apart from the big three who might win one.

If Tipp don't win one of the next two or three they risk turning into Waterford.