The Six counties European Election Thread/Poll

[Donagh]

"Castle Kethlics" or "Garden Centre Prods" aren't really the issue, here, it's votes which count. On which point I must choose between eg "your 50%+1 within 10 or 12 years, if not a lot sooner" and the opinion of Prof. O'Leary, as quoted just now by Hound.

Hmmm, tricky choice that...

Prof O'Leary is entitled to his opinion (though Hound incorrectly attributes a direct quote to him) but if you are alluding to the 'Prof' title bestowing some sort of mythical authority on him, I can dig up many more 'Profs' that would disagree with him.

[Roger]

Anyone could be forgiven for cynicism given that in 1972 the provisional republican movement claimed it would be the year for victory and have been making claims and predictions ever since.  One by one they have been dieing off, even the young bearded leader and his Garfunkel looky-likey seem a bit grey around the gills and a bit like has-beens these days.  In the meantime republicans seem to get excited about something, agrieved about most things, and generally have bad blood pressure about something or other.  If that's how they want to live then so be it. Life goes on for everyone else but none of us on here will ever live in an all-island Republic of Ireland.

The voting stats are interesting mind   

[Donagh]

Anyone could be forgiven for cynicism given that in 1972 the provisional republican movement claimed it would be the year for victory and have been making claims and predictions ever since.  One by one they have been dieing off, even the young bearded leader and his Garfunkel looky-likey seem a bit grey around the gills and a bit like has-beens these days.  In the meantime republicans seem to get excited about something, agrieved about most things, and generally have bad blood pressure about something or other.  If that's how they want to live then so be it. Life goes on for everyone else but none of us on here will ever live in an all-island Republic of Ireland.

The voting stats are interesting mind   

Unfortunately Roger, until you are prepared to back up your opinions with some supporting evidence they carry as much weight as EGs and to be honest there's not much weight in a smilie. 

[delboy]

Prof O'Leary is entitled to his opinion (though Hound incorrectly attributes a direct quote to him) but if you are alluding to the 'Prof' title bestowing some sort of mythical authority on him, I can dig up many more 'Profs' that would disagree with him.

I'd be interested to know more, any chance of supplying something to back this up?

[Evil Genius]

You wish! 

In fact, why don't you go down to Paddy Power and place a bet on it, since you'll get good odds for what by your use of "will", you must consider to be a racing certainty? And with interest rates being so low, even the full 10 or 12 years will give a much better return than sticking it in a bank.

P.S. How much sooner is "a lot"? Seven years would have a nice ring to it (though 12 might also have resonance for you, too, I'd have thought!)

I already posted my reasons for saying this in previous posts on other threads, which you obviously read, but refused to take part in. If you would like to open that debate again I'm only happy to do so, but don't expect me to repeat everything I've posted elsewhere - go read them and come back to me.

I have indeed read your reasons why you think a UI "will happen within 10-12 years or maybe a lot sooner", but the reason why I generally decline to engage with them is that they appear to me to be tosh - a product of wishful thinking.

However, I have taken exception to your posts on this particular thread, since you appeared confident that the EU Election would provide further "evidence" for your claim, then attempted to "spin" the actual results when they failed to meet your hopes/expectations.

Anyhow, why don't you "fill your boots" with Paddy Power? The odds must be very tempting, for what is effectively a "two horse race":

http://www.irishvisit.com/ireland-reviews/united-ireland-by-2027-what-are-the-odds.html
United Ireland by 2027? What are the odds?

Ten to one by the year 2027, according to Paddy Power.

Yes, one of the many cultural twists that still befuddles me is the legality and casual practice of gambling in Ireland. There are gambling shops everywhere in this country and, apparently, one can simply walk into one of these places and bet on . . . well, anything.

Case in point is latest bet on offer: a United Ireland. Think about it - people have fought, died and argued for the cause . . . why not try betting?

Whichever way you bet, Paddy Power has it at 10/1 for a United Ireland by 2027, 14/1 by 2022, 20/1 by 2017 and, for those who think Britain will actually change over to the euro in the next few years: 25/1 by 2012.


Indeed, you could make it a double, with this one:

"For example, Ladbrokes reckon the odds of finding the Loch Ness monster alive and well are 66-1..."
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6331-biggest-bets-in-the-universe-unveiled.html

[Roger]

Anyone could be forgiven for cynicism given that in 1972 the provisional republican movement claimed it would be the year for victory and have been making claims and predictions ever since.  One by one they have been dieing off, even the young bearded leader and his Garfunkel looky-likey seem a bit grey around the gills and a bit like has-beens these days.  In the meantime republicans seem to get excited about something, agrieved about most things, and generally have bad blood pressure about something or other.  If that's how they want to live then so be it. Life goes on for everyone else but none of us on here will ever live in an all-island Republic of Ireland.

The voting stats are interesting mind   

Unfortunately Roger, until you are prepared to back up your opinions with some supporting evidence they carry as much weight as EGs and to be honest there's not much weight in a smilie. 

The evidence has been there every year since 1972.  Republicans predictions have year-on-year-on-year been consistently all load of balls.

The new prediction of 12 years is just yet another republican prediction.  There is a lot of weight in my smile, I've been doing it all my life despite republican predictions and believe I will be doing it for the rest of my life too 

[Evil Genius]

Prof O'Leary is entitled to his opinion (though Hound incorrectly attributes a direct quote to him) but if you are alluding to the 'Prof' title bestowing some sort of mythical authority on him, I can dig up many more 'Profs' that would disagree with him.

You may agree or disagree with O'Leary's politics (Left-Wing, Irish Nationalist, anti-Israeli etc), but his academic credentials and experience in the field are highly impressive:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_O%27Leary (Yep, it's Wiki again!)

http://www.polisci.upenn.edu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=73

http://worldcat.org/identities/lccn-n88-665077

Frankly, if he of all people is putting a United Ireland on the backburner for the next 30 years+, then I am enormously reassured 

[Donagh]

You wish! 

In fact, why don't you go down to Paddy Power and place a bet on it, since you'll get good odds for what by your use of "will", you must consider to be a racing certainty? And with interest rates being so low, even the full 10 or 12 years will give a much better return than sticking it in a bank.

P.S. How much sooner is "a lot"? Seven years would have a nice ring to it (though 12 might also have resonance for you, too, I'd have thought!)

I already posted my reasons for saying this in previous posts on other threads, which you obviously read, but refused to take part in. If you would like to open that debate again I'm only happy to do so, but don't expect me to repeat everything I've posted elsewhere - go read them and come back to me.

I have indeed read your reasons why you think a UI "will happen within 10-12 years or maybe a lot sooner", but the reason why I generally decline to engage with them is that they appear to me to be tosh - a product of wishful thinking.

However, I have taken exception to your posts on this particular thread, since you appeared confident that the EU Election would provide further "evidence" for your claim, then attempted to "spin" the actual results when they failed to meet your hopes/expectations.

Anyhow, why don't you "fill your boots" with Paddy Power? The odds must be very tempting, for what is effectively a "two horse race":

http://www.irishvisit.com/ireland-reviews/united-ireland-by-2027-what-are-the-odds.html
United Ireland by 2027? What are the odds?

Ten to one by the year 2027, according to Paddy Power.

Yes, one of the many cultural twists that still befuddles me is the legality and casual practice of gambling in Ireland. There are gambling shops everywhere in this country and, apparently, one can simply walk into one of these places and bet on . . . well, anything.

Case in point is latest bet on offer: a United Ireland. Think about it - people have fought, died and argued for the cause . . . why not try betting?

Whichever way you bet, Paddy Power has it at 10/1 for a United Ireland by 2027, 14/1 by 2022, 20/1 by 2017 and, for those who think Britain will actually change over to the euro in the next few years: 25/1 by 2012.


Indeed, you could make it a double, with this one:

"For example, Ladbrokes reckon the odds of finding the Loch Ness monster alive and well are 66-1..."
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6331-biggest-bets-in-the-universe-unveiled.html

Sorry, did you write all of that just to say you have nothing to challenge what I said on another thread? Is this the part where I should insert a smilie 

[Donagh]

The evidence has been there every year since 1972.  Republicans predictions have year-on-year-on-year been consistently all load of balls.

The new prediction of 12 years is just yet another republican prediction.  There is a lot of weight in my smile, I've been doing it all my life despite republican predictions and believe I will be doing it for the rest of my life too 

Firstly I don't know what 'republicans predictions' you are talking about and secondly I haven't said anywhere there will be a united Irish Republic within 12 years.

[Donagh]

Prof O'Leary is entitled to his opinion (though Hound incorrectly attributes a direct quote to him) but if you are alluding to the 'Prof' title bestowing some sort of mythical authority on him, I can dig up many more 'Profs' that would disagree with him.

You may agree or disagree with O'Leary's politics (Left-Wing, Irish Nationalist, anti-Israeli etc), but his academic credentials and experience in the field are highly impressive:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_O%27Leary (Yep, it's Wiki again!)

http://www.polisci.upenn.edu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=73

http://worldcat.org/identities/lccn-n88-665077

Frankly, if he of all people is putting a United Ireland on the backburner for the next 30 years+, then I am enormously reassured 

I'm quite aware of whoBrendan O'Leary is, so again you've no need to be providing Wiki links for me thanks. So again, if you have anything to challenge anything I've posted on the Board I'd like to hear it. I can only assume from your avoidance that you don't.

[Donagh]

I'd be interested to know more, any chance of supplying something to back this up?

Interested to know what exactly? If it's population trends your after you could try Cormac ó'Gráda, Paul Doherty or Malcom Macourt.

[magickingdom]

what is undeniable based on a basic understanding of maths is that the unionist block in ni is around 48-54% while the nationalist is in the 42-45%. the 150k extra that showed up at the gfa ref would have divided like that

Wrong. What is undeniable is that the Unionist bloc which votes is 48-54%.

And since Roger and others have clearly demonstrated is that turnout in Unionist areas is consistently lower than in Nationalist areas, then the proportion of the "missing 150k" at Elections which is Unionist may be assumed to be greater than 48-54%.

Therefore, only two valid questions remain, namely whether the medium-to-long term trend is veering towards Unionism or Nationalism, also whether those Unionists who don't vote at Elections could be persuaded to come out and vote in a Border Poll.

Regarding the former, any perceptible trend towards Nationalism is still so glacial as not to worry me. And as regards the second, I am confident that when it comes to the crunch, Unionists would turn out at similar rates to Nationalists in any such Poll.

i give up eg, what percentage of the total population in ni do you believe to be unionist/nationalist

[Tonto]

Donagh, now, I'm not trying to be confrontational but just state my view of what might happen in a referendum for a United Ireland.

I think those who equate voting for the SDLP/Sinn Fein as voting for a united Ireland are mistaken.

Ask yourself: why have nationalists, north or south, never even attempted to draw up a blue-print for what a united Ireland would look like?  After all, such a blue print would, IMO, have to be forthcoming before the electorate were ever seriously asked to state a choice; united Ireland or United Kingdom?

It's only speculation, of course, but I think that the reason is simple; to do so would alienate a great many SF/SDLP voters because all of a sudden "shit, my job in the Civil Service is under threat"; or "shit my job within that British company will go" or "we'll have to pay to go to hospital" or whatever would be what would turn so many "nationalists" off.  And turkeys wouldn't vote for Christmas.

Now people on here might say this is a typical unionist with his "comfort blanket" or whatever.  But nationalists, if they want to be taken seriously, should stop dealing in concepts and romantic images of a "32 county Irish Republic" bla bla bla.  Lay your cards on the table and then let the people decide.

[delboy]

I'd be interested to know more, any chance of supplying something to back this up?

Interested to know what exactly? If it's population trends your after you could try Cormac ó'Gráda, Paul Doherty or Malcom Macourt.

Ok the first one is a historian studying 'historical' irish demographics, its not entirely obvious looking at his publication record how he would have much to add to matter in discussion (recent population trends). From what i can gather Paul Doherty wrote about ethnic residential segragation and seems to have fallen off the radar sometime ago, again its not entirely obvious how he fits into the picture. Malcom Macourt was an elusive character that i couldn't pin down in relation to being an expert in irish population studies.


I did notice that none of them were deemed important enough to warrant having a wiki page set up about them unlike the previously quoted academic and as i've said its difficult to see how they are qualified to speak about recent population trends. Maybe you can point me in the right direction though.

[Donagh]

Donagh, now, I'm not trying to be confrontational but just state my view of what might happen in a referendum for a United Ireland.

I think those who equate voting for the SDLP/Sinn Fein as voting for a united Ireland are mistaken.

Ask yourself: why have nationalists, north or south, never even attempted to draw up a blue-print for what a united Ireland would look like?  After all, such a blue print would, IMO, have to be forthcoming before the electorate were ever seriously asked to state a choice; united Ireland or United Kingdom?

It's only speculation, of course, but I think that the reason is simple; to do so would alienate a great many SF/SDLP voters because all of a sudden "shit, my job in the Civil Service is under threat"; or "shit my job within that British company will go" or "we'll have to pay to go to hospital" or whatever would be what would turn so many "nationalists" off.  And turkeys wouldn't vote for Christmas.

Now people on here might say this is a typical unionist with his "comfort blanket" or whatever.  But nationalists, if they want to be taken seriously, should stop dealing in concepts and romantic images of a "32 county Irish Republic" bla bla bla.  Lay your cards on the table and then let the people decide.

Without dwelling on your rather crass argument that those Fenians too fond of the Queen's shilling, the answer to your question is that there are no blueprints because it  needs the input of unionists and the Irish/Brit governments and so far for their owns reasons they've refused to do so. That'll change as we progress and the inevitable becomes visible.