The Six counties European Election Thread/Poll

[Evil Genius]

that survey, however reliable it is, shows the youth support a united ireland, and thus support for reunification should continue to rise

It is incorrect to claim that "the youth" of NI "support a united ireland", rather that support for a UI is more prevalent amongst young people than the elderly.

However, there are a number of reasons why Unionism might hope to "get over the hump" presented by that particular problem. For one thing, people are living longer than ever before, so the clear Unionist majority amongst the older generations can hope to cling on until something else changes the demographics.

And that something else could well be one or both of two things, namely an equalisation of the birth rates between Catholics and Prods (something which has already happened elsewhere in Europe), plus a rebalancing of the emigration deficit from NI, whereby more Prods emigrate permanently to GB (often following university study there) than do their RC counterparts.

On top of which, there is no doubt that the young are generally more radical than the general population; conversely, people tend to become more conservative (small "c") as they get older, as well as being much more likely to vote in elections.

Finally, if we did manage to maintain the present relatively peaceful and stable settlement, it may just be that people will settle down generally, and the Border Question may fade from peoples' consciousness, as it has done in the Republic? (In that sense, Sinn Fein's collusion co-operation in helping administer British Rule local government in NI the Occupied Six might actually work against them, by removing Nationalists' enduring sense of grievance over their treatment in the "Statelet" etc!  )

Of course, demographers and psephologists have often been wrong before now when attempting to forecast too far into the future; however, when stating that he cannot see a Nationalist majority arising in NI before the next 30 years, perhaps Prof. O'Leary is acknowledging that Unionism is now just over the "hump", ready to ease down the other side?

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Unionism = Ostrich = Simple truth = Things are a changing

Yes, we all have our head in the sand.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein continue to administer British rule, support a British police service, the Union Flag still flies above Belfast City Hall and the border still exists.  Sorry, who's delusional?

What, you'd prefer the alternative and we went back to war?

[Evil Genius]

Unionism = Ostrich = Simple truth = Things are a changing

Yes, we all have our head in the sand.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein continue to administer British rule, support a British police service, the Union Flag still flies above Belfast City Hall and the border still exists.  Sorry, who's delusional?

What, you'd prefer the alternative and we went back to war?

Why on earth would any sensible* Unionist like Tonto want any alternative to local political parties (inc SF) helping administer British rule and a British police service, whilst the UF flies and the Border remains, still less one which meant a rebirth of terrorism?

Certainly "things are a changing", but they're changing in our direction; the ostrich-like delusion comes from those who claim that they are going in the direction of a United Ireland!   

* - And before you say it, I don't consider the TUV to be very sensible...

[ziggysego]

Certainly "things are a changing", but they're changing in our direction; the ostrich-like delusion comes from those who claim that they are going in the direction of a United Ireland!   

Who's our?

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Unionism = Ostrich = Simple truth = Things are a changing

Yes, we all have our head in the sand.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein continue to administer British rule, support a British police service, the Union Flag still flies above Belfast City Hall and the border still exists.  Sorry, who's delusional?

What, you'd prefer the alternative and we went back to war?

Why on earth would any sensible* Unionist like Tonto want any alternative to local political parties (inc SF) helping administer British rule and a British police service, whilst the UF flies and the Border remains, still less one which meant a rebirth of terrorism?

Certainly "things are a changing", but they're changing in our direction; the ostrich-like delusion comes from those who claim that they are going in the direction of a United Ireland!   

* - And before you say it, I don't consider the TUV to be very sensible...

I find it quite amusing to watch the "unionists" on this board trying to convince themselves that everything is rosy and the "ulster raj" is still strong (and getting stronger according to EG).
Will the unionist population is aging and their youth get educated and bugger off to the motherland.

[stibhan]

There is no direction for Unionism. Absolutely none. They are in a black and white situation whereby they either are part of the union or they aren't. There is no means of mediating between the two.

Nationalists, by contrast, are waiting for a United Ireland free from British rule. No matter how far the unionists 'strengthen' the union in terms of red tape and legislation, the fact that the principle of consent in terms of a United Ireland exists means that the state has a built in obsolescence. Short of every Unionist fathering/mothering a slew of illegitimate children, there isn't really anything that solidly stops the recession of the Union--furthermore, you can't control what may happen in Scotland or Wales, or even England.

[Tonto]

Unionism = Ostrich = Simple truth = Things are a changing

Yes, we all have our head in the sand.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein continue to administer British rule, support a British police service, the Union Flag still flies above Belfast City Hall and the border still exists.  Sorry, who's delusional?

What, you'd prefer the alternative and we went back to war?

I really don't know what to say to that truly bizarre question.

[Evil Genius]

Certainly "things are a changing", but they're changing in our direction; the ostrich-like delusion comes from those who claim that they are going in the direction of a United Ireland!   

Who's our?

Those of us like Tonto and myself who prefer a United Kingdom to a United Ireland aka Unionists.

[Evil Genius]

I find it quite amusing to watch the "unionists" on this board trying to convince themselves that everything is rosy and the "ulster raj" is still strong (and getting stronger according to EG).

I'm glad it amuses you, but whether it does or it doesn't, I have genuinely been persuaded that for all its flaws, the present constitutional arrangement secures the Union better than virtually any arrangement since Partition. This is because it is internationally recognised and accepted by Treaty that the future of the Union is now firmly in the hands of the people of NI, which is all I could ever reasonably have asked for in the first place.

And as for how secure those hands are:

Will the unionist population is aging and their youth get educated and bugger off to the motherland.

I have already given my opinion on the demographic future ahead of NI in Posts #336 and #338, above. Of course, you may disagree totally with the conclusions I drew in those Posts (and others), but at least they were coherently argued, with evidence and examples. So that when you try to rebut them with nothing more cheap jibes and sloganeering such as the above, it does nothing for your credibility (imo).

[Evil Genius]

There is no direction for Unionism. Absolutely none. They are in a black and white situation whereby they either are part of the union or they aren't. There is no means of mediating between the two.

What do you mean by "no direction"? If you mean that we are content with the status quo, then well spotted! On which point, despite Economic Depression, the 2nd World War and three bloody terrorist insurrections, the last one lasting 30 years, the status of NI within the UK is now stronger than ever (imo).

Nationalists, by contrast, are waiting for a United Ireland free from British rule. No matter how far the unionists 'strengthen' the union in terms of red tape and legislation, the fact that the principle of consent in terms of a United Ireland exists means that the state has a built in obsolescence.

How do you figure there is a "built-in obsolescence", stemming from the consent principle?   Are you claiming that a Catholic/Nationalist majority is somehow an inevitability? If so, I'd like to see your evidence, with statistics and data etc.

Short of every Unionist fathering/mothering a slew of illegitimate children, there isn't really anything that solidly stops the recession of the Union

So the only way Unionists will preserve the Union is by outbreeding Nationalists/Catholics then, eh? How do you account for the evidence I quoted which indicates that a significant minority of the Catholic population of NI are happy enough to see the Union preserved, namely:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html
Do you not believe in the power of argument and persuasion, then? In any case, do not make the mistake of believing that all of your fellow Nationalists are blindly impervious to reason and logic, just because you appear to be.
(And btw, why should such new children be "illegitimate"? Does this slip subconsciously betray your real attitude towards Unionists?  )

-furthermore, you can't control what may happen in Scotland or Wales, or even England.

You clearly fail to graps the concept of a Union. Namely, it is like a Club, where so long as you pay your subscription and obey the club's rules, no other Member may exclude you, simply because he does not approve of, or agree with you. That is the position NI has secured via the GFA/SAA, namely that unless or until we decide to resign our Membership, it is ours in perpetuity, just like every other Member, so long as the club remains.
On which point, of course, a majority of the Membership might decide to disband the club and sell up. However, despite all the rumblings of a (mainly) recalcitrant few Scottish Nationalist Members, I really can't see that happening anytime soon.
If anything, the tide is flowing in our favour, with both the main political parties in England vying with each other to prove their pro-UK credentials, the Conservatives making a comeback in Wales (and Scotland) and the SNP still utterly unable to persuade a majority of their countrymen to take the plunge and exit the Union. In fact, they are frightened even to ask the question - presumably because they fear the answer they'll get.
Meanwhile, the first tentative steps towards increasing NI's representation and influence on the Membership Committee of the "Club" (i.e. via the UUP/Conservative link-up), may be beginning to take hold, if Jim Nicholson's (moderately encouraging) performance in the EU Election is anything to go by.

[Donagh]

Unionism = Ostrich = Simple truth = Things are a changing

Yes, we all have our head in the sand.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein continue to administer British rule, support a British police service, the Union Flag still flies above Belfast City Hall and the border still exists.  Sorry, who's delusional?

What, you'd prefer the alternative and we went back to war?

I really don't know what to say to that truly bizarre question.

'Tontos Law': The less confidence a poster has in his opinion will have a positive correlation to the amount of emoticons he will use on the same post.

[magickingdom]

Why on earth would any sensible* Unionist like Tonto want any alternative to local political parties (inc SF) helping administer British rule and a British police service, whilst the UF flies and the Border remains, still less one which meant a rebirth of terrorism?

Certainly "things are a changing", but they're changing in our direction; the ostrich-like delusion comes from those who claim that they are going in the direction of a United Ireland!   

* - And before you say it, I don't consider the TUV to be very sensible...

the best way for unionists to stay in the uk is to get guys like you (and the dup/tuv) to show a bit of empathy towards the other side. headcounts are a disaster for ni and if a border poll was held and the vote ended up 55/45 (your figures) for the union how much would that rack up the tension? imagine 45% voting to dissolve the state mixed with rhetoric like yours above?

[Tonto]

Unionism = Ostrich = Simple truth = Things are a changing

Yes, we all have our head in the sand.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein continue to administer British rule, support a British police service, the Union Flag still flies above Belfast City Hall and the border still exists.  Sorry, who's delusional?

What, you'd prefer the alternative and we went back to war?

I really don't know what to say to that truly bizarre question.

'Tontos Law': The less confidence a poster has in his opinion will have a positive correlation to the amount of emoticons he will use on the same post.

"Donagh's Law":  The more uncomfortable a poster feels about the facts of a situation will have a direct impact on what he chooses to comment on.  This usually results in side-swipes at a poster rather than addressing the issue.



Sorry, one more smiley.

[stibhan]

There is no direction for Unionism. Absolutely none. They are in a black and white situation whereby they either are part of the union or they aren't. There is no means of mediating between the two.

What do you mean by "no direction"? If you mean that we are content with the status quo, then well spotted! On which point, despite Economic Depression, the 2nd World War and three bloody terrorist insurrections, the last one lasting 30 years, the status of NI within the UK is now stronger than ever (imo).

The 'strength' of the position of 'NI' in the Union isn't something that can be measured, least of all by you (or me, for that matter). Sinn Fein being the biggest party in the North is probably a major contention to your claims, but again--it's a black and white situation. Strength doesn't come into it. There is no direction to remove the principle of consent. If consent is removed then lives will be removed. It's as simple as that.

Nationalists, by contrast, are waiting for a United Ireland free from British rule. No matter how far the unionists 'strengthen' the union in terms of red tape and legislation, the fact that the principle of consent in terms of a United Ireland exists means that the state has a built in obsolescence.

How do you figure there is a "built-in obsolescence", stemming from the consent principle?   Are you claiming that a Catholic/Nationalist majority is somehow an inevitability? If so, I'd like to see your evidence, with statistics and data etc.

A state that provides a means of the destruction of that state in legislature is by definition one with a built-in obsolescence.

Short of every Unionist fathering/mothering a slew of illegitimate children, there isn't really anything that solidly stops the recession of the Union

So the only way Unionists will preserve the Union is by outbreeding Nationalists/Catholics then, eh? How do you account for the evidence I quoted which indicates that a significant minority of the Catholic population of NI are happy enough to see the Union preserved, namely:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html
Do you not believe in the power of argument and persuasion, then? In any case, do not make the mistake of believing that all of your fellow Nationalists are blindly impervious to reason and logic, just because you appear to be.
(And btw, why should such new children be "illegitimate"? Does this slip subconsciously betray your real attitude towards Unionists?  )

Elections are perhaps more important than the studies or polls, and as such do not reflect your figures. Calling me 'blind to reason and logic' is again representative of a unionist tendency to attack Nationalism, which is a coherent, reasonable and logical ideology, with insults rather than fact. Furthermore, do not try and read anything into me using one word, I merely meant that the numbers required would be befitting of such promiscuity as would be incompatible with monogamy, irrespective of religious or political disposition.

-furthermore, you can't control what may happen in Scotland or Wales, or even England.

You clearly fail to graps the concept of a Union. Namely, it is like a Club, where so long as you pay your subscription and obey the club's rules, no other Member may exclude you, simply because he does not approve of, or agree with you. That is the position NI has secured via the GFA/SAA, namely that unless or until we decide to resign our Membership, it is ours in perpetuity, just like every other Member, so long as the club remains.
On which point, of course, a majority of the Membership might decide to disband the club and sell up. However, despite all the rumblings of a (mainly) recalcitrant few Scottish Nationalist Members, I really can't see that happening anytime soon.
If anything, the tide is flowing in our favour, with both the main political parties in England vying with each other to prove their pro-UK credentials, the Conservatives making a comeback in Wales (and Scotland) and the SNP still utterly unable to persuade a majority of their countrymen to take the plunge and exit the Union. In fact, they are frightened even to ask the question - presumably because they fear the answer they'll get.
Meanwhile, the first tentative steps towards increasing NI's representation and influence on the Membership Committee of the "Club" (i.e. via the UUP/Conservative link-up), may be beginning to take hold, if Jim Nicholson's (moderately encouraging) performance in the EU Election is anything to go by.

Comparing a political system to a club is perhaps indicative of a naivety which sums up the worst kind of unionist intransigence. No matter what you say about Scotland and Wales, unionists have conceded that the position of NI in the Union would be extremely difficult without them--they are fundamental members of the 'club' because they form a 'celtic' cultural bond with the statelet that is British-Occupied Ireland. The rest of your post is just ridiculous bullshit that has no bearing on what we're talking about. The fact that the Conservative Unionists are in the 'club' of Parliament's prospective ruling body won't mean anything but a gimmick. European Elections, incidentally, have no direct bearing on Westminister ones. I'm not sure that the 'protest vote' of this election will do anything other than protest either. Joining Westminster no more increases the representation and influence of 'NI' than joining the Dail. Both major parties must surely secretly want rid of us.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

I find it quite amusing to watch the "unionists" on this board trying to convince themselves that everything is rosy and the "ulster raj" is still strong (and getting stronger according to EG).

I'm glad it amuses you, but whether it does or it doesn't, I have genuinely been persuaded that for all its flaws, the present constitutional arrangement secures the Union better than virtually any arrangement since Partition. This is because it is internationally recognised and accepted by Treaty that the future of the Union is now firmly in the hands of the people of NI, which is all I could ever reasonably have asked for in the first place.

And as for how secure those hands are:

Will the unionist population is aging and their youth get educated and bugger off to the motherland.

I have already given my opinion on the demographic future ahead of NI in Posts #336 and #338, above. Of course, you may disagree totally with the conclusions I drew in those Posts (and others), but at least they were coherently argued, with evidence and examples. So that when you try to rebut them with nothing more cheap jibes and sloganeering such as the above, it does nothing for your credibility (imo).

All you have done in those two posts is give your OPINION, as I have done mine.
The stats you give are in relation to voting and not demographics. 
Anyway keep telling yourself that the union is safer now then ever, as you have said it's now in the peoples hands and not a unionist stormont gov or brit gov, therefore can be dissolved when the people decide, personally I would have thought that, that makes it less solid and more unsecure.