Recession to continue to 2010

[INDIANA]

Hardy, economists are no better than a bookie when it comes to telling the economic landscape. Whoever said that economics was the science of bullshit, got it spot on in my view. Absolute clowns for the most part.

Canalman thats down to property though, any business connected with property is f****. The retail industry, engineering, the building trade, auctioneers,estate agents,architects, financial funds ,solicitors who built their practices on conveyancing ,are where the pain will be most felt over the next 12 months. There will be cutbacks in the public sector but thats not before time, thats been overmanned and overstaffed for decades, thats more of a weeding out than anything to do with the recession. The traditional professions like lawyers,accountants will probably survive quite well as no matter how bad things get the world still needs them.

[armaghniac]

Inevitably there has to be a slowdown.

Of course, but had better policies been followed there didn't have to be such a reverse. Such a reverse did not happen in living memory.

There will be cutbacks in the public sector but thats not before time, thats been overmanned and overstaffed for decades, thats more of a weeding out than anything to do with the recession.

the problem is that there is tendency to just say cut x% off everyone, rather than looking at what people are doing, whether it is useful and whether it is efficiently done.

[lynchbhoy]

Hardy, economists are no better than a bookie when it comes to telling the economic landscape. Whoever said that economics was the science of bullshit, got it spot on in my view. Absolute clowns for the most part.

Canalman thats down to property though, any business connected with property is f****. The retail industry, engineering, the building trade, auctioneers,estate agents,architects, financial funds ,solicitors who built their practices on conveyancing ,are where the pain will be most felt over the next 12 months. There will be cutbacks in the public sector but thats not before time, thats been overmanned and overstaffed for decades, thats more of a weeding out than anything to do with the recession. The traditional professions like lawyers,accountants will probably survive quite well as no matter how bad things get the world still needs them.

completely agree with the above.
Read in the papers last weekend that we are still operating at employment levels above 2005 figures, which was pretty bloody good at the time.
As long as we dont take too many hits jobs wise in the next 6 months I think we could come out of this a hell of a lot quicker than people suggest. The job loss knock on effect should be absorbed by the local economy if so.
OK the house prices might not come back up, but thats no bad thing (negative equite will only last a handful of years and the people it mostly affected are owner occuppiers), interest rates will go back up after hitting possibly one more cut (below todays base rate cut to 2.5% in Ireland and 2.0% in england).

civil service needs restructurin, cuts and an overview and re-structuring. However as mentioned on this board before, it would take such a long time, any gov would be loathe to commit to this exercise - though it woul dbe very worthwhile.

Another interesting point is that AIB announced yesterday their poor returns of €750million down massive percentagewise on prev returns.
Hardly think the banks are that badly affected ....

I'm hearing positive vibes in the midst of all this and am quite confident that we will get back to decent trade, and even housing market in the not too distant future.

in the next 100 years starting now - I predict an end to the recession, then a period of stability, then a bit of a growth boom, then a bit of a downturn, then a bit of a recession, then.....

[Maiden1]

My mate warned me about the Recession coming way back in 2001. I laughed in his face. I wish I didn't now.

Of course a recession will eventually come then the economy will pick up and then another recession will come .. that's the way it works you don't have to be Mystic Meg.

[ziggysego]

I hear that France and Germany have exited the recession today.

[Doogie Browser]

I hear that France and Germany have exited the recession today.

Did your mate tell you or did you just read it on the BBC like the rest of us? 

[ziggysego]

I hear that France and Germany have exited the recession today.

Did your mate tell you or did you just read it on the BBC like the rest of us? 

BBC 

[Gnevin]

I hear that France and Germany have exited the recession today.

Did your mate tell you or did you just read it on the BBC like the rest of us? 

BBC 

Surely if it take 2  negative quarters to enter a recession .It takes 2 quarters of growth to leave it?

[lynchbhoy]

have to say that I am seeing and hearing of a lot of jobs being picked up here and there by people, across a few different sectors.
this apparantly holds true in belfast as well as dublin, and am wondering if there are any signs of life in the other parts of Ireland if these two places are showing positive (if still small as yet) signs of positivity.

[fred the red]

I was told now is the time to purchase a house (if you can stump up the 20% mortgage)

[lynchbhoy]

I was told now is the time to purchase a house (if you can stump up the 20% mortgage)

dont know about northern parts, but there is a remote possibility that stamp duty could be reduced or done away with after the nov budget.
But either way, prices are possibly as good as you will get.
Unless (for the southern parts) NAMA trigger off the cutting of commerical property values claimed by the banks that will prob have a knock on effect on residential (giving some poor sods a greate deficit in negative equity) - then reducing house prices more.
I think this will be unlikely, but I know as much (or as little !!) as the next person.

[Declan]

But either way, prices are possibly as good as you will get.

One of the guidelines that used to be used in assessing the price of residential property was a multiple of the rental income. This multiple used to be around 11/15 times the annual rental income. I know there are anomalies like interest rates etc but even as a guidance a 3 bed semid in dun laoghaire currently looking for 1750 a month means a price of ball park 315K using the top factor of 15 times and they are still looking for 400K plus depending on the area. So I think there's still a fair bit to go before it bottoms out.

but I know as much (or as little !!) as the next person.

Likewise so take the above with a pinch of salt

[lynchbhoy]

But either way, prices are possibly as good as you will get.

One of the guidelines that used to be used in assessing the price of residential property was a multiple of the rental income. This multiple used to be around 11/15 times the annual rental income. I know there are anomalies like interest rates etc but even as a guidance a 3 bed semid in dun laoghaire currently looking for 1750 a month means a price of ball park 315K using the top factor of 15 times and they are still looking for 400K plus depending on the area. So I think there's still a fair bit to go before it bottoms out.

but I know as much (or as little !!) as the next person.

Likewise so take the above with a pinch of salt

jeez is that right about the cost of 3 bed semi rentals in dun Laoghaire !
Feck thats about €500 at least over most of the same around most of the parts of Dublin i know... (ok thats mostly north of the liffey and central city regions).
I'd be expecting that rental is average somewhere between 1000 and 1200 a month for a 3 bed semi det in these areas, maybe even less now..

[Canalman]

Prices still some way to fall yet imo. While the rate of job losses here in Dublin imo has slowed considerably........ the confidence to buy has yet to return. Will once again come down imo to location and the age of the houses being sold.... the older the better. Problems with the new houses becoming very prevalent at the moment. Reckon another 20% more to fall in Dublin...... with some midland counties without industry/employment having their properties rendered virtually worthless.

As for Apartments....... tomorrow's slums imo by and large except in places like Sandymount, Ranelagh etc.

As of next month I am going to save for a deposit for another house..... will take me (hopefully) about 2 years to do....... a return to the older days of saving for a deposit.

[Main Street]

You simply can't have unfettered growth indefinitely.

Most rational people understand this. Unfortunately, that seems to exclude the government, nine out of ten Irish economists, the property industry, people who kept buying more and more property the more expensive it became, etc.

There is a difference between growth (i.e. real growth) and pumping air into one of those bouncy castles.