The 'unionist minority'

[Donagh]

I had the SDLP at my door last night trying to convince me that I should get out to the polling station for this election and give them a preference as they are sure the potential is there for a second nationalist seat (well they would say that). While we know the Protestant population has been in the minority for some time, this has yet to reflected in the unionist voting patterns. Personally I'd have thought we were still three years away from the end of the unionist majority, but the SDLP seem to be conviced an increase of nationalist turnout (unlikely at the moment - esp without Duffy to shake things up) and the participation of the TUV could mean unionism won't get the two quotas. While the Stoops are playing a dangerous game i.e. unionist turnout could increase if this line gets widespread media attention, if true it would mean that unionism will be in the minority in the six counties for the first time since partition.   

[Canalman]

I'm sad to say that the high % of Castle Catholics in the North means that the "Unionist" majority is safe for a while yet.

[Tankie]

sure the state we are in the North would be better off without us, i dont think you boys could afford our shopping bills 

[illdecide]

I stopped voting there about 3 or 4 years ago. I can't bear them politicians and their bull shit (both sides) and the end of the day they are in it for the money and nothing else, if they were not getting the dollars they wouldn't be doing it...I was a Sinn Fein voter all my life

[Gnevin]

I had the SDLP at my door last night trying to convince me that I should get out to the polling station for this election and give them a preference as they are sure the potential is there for a second nationalist seat (well they would say that). While we know the Protestant population has been in the minority for some time, this has yet to reflected in the unionist voting patterns. Personally I'd have thought we were still three years away from the end of the unionist majority, but the SDLP seem to be conviced an increase of nationalist turnout (unlikely at the moment - esp without Duffy to shake things up) and the participation of the TUV could mean unionism won't get the two quotas. While the Stoops are playing a dangerous game i.e. unionist turnout could increase if this line gets widespread media attention, if true it would mean that unionism will be in the minority in the six counties for the first time since partition.   

What elections are these ? Europe?

[Donagh]

What elections are these ? Europe?

Europe Gnevin aye. Last time out there was about 30k difference in the two sides with Alliance not standing. The unionist vote has been declining at a rate of just over .5% a year for the last decade. The Stoops called it right in South Belfast in the last Brit elections when they used the same tactic to get more people out and then ended up taking what was previous thought a safe unionist seat.

[Donagh]

I'm sad to say that the high % of Castle Catholics in the North means that the "Unionist" majority is safe for a while yet.

We're just talking voting patterns here Canalman and there's no doubt that those who vote unionist is on a downward trajectory. The unionist minority is just a mater of time, but until last night I hadn't seriously considered it might be so soon - the trends are indicating it will come (drop below 50%) at the next Assembly election in 3 years time.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

I'm sad to say that the high % of Castle Catholics in the North means that the "Unionist" majority is safe for a while yet.

We're just talking voting patterns here Canalman and there's no doubt that those who vote unionist is on a downward trajectory. The unionist minority is just a mater of time, but until last night I hadn't seriously considered it might be so soon - the trends are indicating it will come (drop below 50%) at the next Assembly election in 3 years time.

Jezuz Donagh, talk like that will bring the "garden centre" unionist voters out!

[ziggysego]

I'm sad to say that the high % of Castle Catholics in the North means that the "Unionist" majority is safe for a while yet.

I know a lot of 'Green' Protestants. Do they not come into the equation?

[Donagh]

Jezuz Donagh, talk like that will bring the "garden centre" unionist voters out!

From what I heard on the radio this morning the  "garden centre" unionists wil be too busy deciding whether they should vote NF, TUV, DUP or Alliance. They may decide  that's too much effort and opt for a G'n'T instead.

[Maguire01]

I think that the SDLP winning the third seat is a real possibility. But that could happen even with Unionist voters having the overall majority of votes (just split between more candidates), so whether you can call that a Unionist 'minority' is questionable.

[ziggysego]

Jezuz Donagh, talk like that will bring the "garden centre" unionist voters out!

From what I heard on the radio this morning the  "garden centre" unionists wil be too busy deciding whether they should vote NF, TUV, DUP or Alliance. They may decide  that's too much effort and opt for a G'n'T instead.

I think you'll find they're actually called CUNF.

[Donagh]

I think that the SDLP winning the third seat is a real possibility. But that could happen even with Unionist voters having the overall majority of votes (just split between more candidates), so whether you can call that a Unionist 'minority' is questionable.

We're talking a PR vote after transfers Maguire, in what way would the term minority be questionable? How would you define a 'minority'?

Last time out the difference between the two blocs was 34825 after the first count, with the unionists getting 48% of the vote. This increased after the elimination surpluses were distributed (De Brún who reached quota on the first count didn't have her surplus distributed), so when I am referring to minority I'm talking about the end of the process.

If we take that figure of 35k difference in the parties - at the end of the process that was reduced to a difference between the two blocs of 31306 - again without De Brún's surplus of 7221 being distributed. SF transfers to the SDLP would probably be at 80%. So that's an extra 5776 for the Stoops next time.

If we then add in the decline in unionist share of the vote of .5% per year over five years that would be 2.5% or 27461 votes after distribution. Add that to De Brún's surplus and you have 33237. The difference last time was 31306 at the end of the process.

Now I know this is a rough calculation but it points to a unionist minority and when you add in the extra unionist candidate with transfers being lost, this one will go to the wire, with the Stoops in with a real chance and the unionist bloc being in the minority for the first time since the partition of Ireland.  

[Donagh]

I think you'll find they're actually called CUNF.

Not the 'National Front', frig there was me thinking they'd finally given in and shown their true colours as oul Enoch Powel would have preferred   

[Rossfan]

the unionist bloc being in the minority for the first time since the partition of Ireland.  

If/when this comes to pass.....is it not time for the Nationalist Parties and the 26 Co parties to be devising their inclusive fairplay blueprint for the future Ireland?