Hi Lads,
I had an idea yesterday for a bit of craic this summer which might also help a good cause or two. I always have a couple of small flutters on most of the championship matches during the summer, and I usually (touch wood) end up ahead by the end of the year. This year I've decided to bet on EVERY championship match, as long as I have funds to do so, and to give the balance at the end of the year to Charity. I think it's appropriate that this Charity would be the Cormac McAnallen trust and hopefully the Tony Griffen Cancer Cycle.
I have €100 in my PP account (Sorry LoneShark, but its handier to use in Ireland with Laser Cards), and will use that as our seed money to kickstart the season.
Now, what do I want ye to do?
I thought it might be a bit of craic to spread the responsibility a bit :D I'll post the championship fixtures I'm betting for the week in this thread, and will ask for everyone to respond with their predictions. Come 5 O'Clock this evening (and every Friday evening) I'll simply place a tenner on the most popular result. On Monday monday morning I'll update the running total and the results with any monies won.
(If anyone else wanted to do something similar, feel free, I won't be patenting the idea :), and as long as it goes to a worthwhile Charity we can feel good about partaking in the Devil's pastime (Sorry LoneShark)).
OK. Here we go. No pressure :D (All Odds Paddy Power Odds)
Opening Balance €100
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2)
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2)
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1)
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1)
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1)
So that'll be €50 to bet this week.
Cheers
Stick the heap on an Antrim/Derry/Down Treble.
Stick a tenner on New York.
Down, Longford Double , almost 6/1
Cavan
Westmeath
Sligo
Antrim
Derry...
Great idea AZ. Sure if it all goes wrong and the pot dries up, I'll wing in a few pound to top it up, and sure at the end of the year maybe we can all add a wee bit to make a good donation.
Fair play to you.
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - DRAW
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - WESTMEATH
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - SLIGO
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - ANTRIM
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - DERRY
Reckon you should play it safe this weekend with a double
Cavan & Westmeath will get you a return of 138 for your 50 stake
I wouldn't bet against Armagh or Cavan in these games. Dessie is back for Westmeath but I'd still fancy Longford to take them easily enough.
Cavan
Longford
Sligo
Antrim
Quote from: AZOffaly on May 11, 2007, 09:36:37 AM
I have €100 in my PP account (Sorry LoneShark, but its handier to use in Ireland with Laser Cards), and will use that as our seed money to kickstart the season.
Ladbrokes also take laser.
Fair play AZ.. Will dig ya out with Norf Tyrone if things go belly up early..
Only bit of value this week are the draws in football. As Cavan were cat against us in league semi and Down cant be trusted any day I would side with the local derby in leinster.
Longford Westmeath draw gets my vote.
20euro @ 13/2
Wouldnt even bother with other games.
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - CAVAN
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - WESTMEATH
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - SLIGO
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - ANTRIM
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - DERRY
Down / Cavan Draw & Longford double. Pays out over 900 dabs, if successful.
The other three games could be tight enough and might be worth a punt on the handicap bet.
I'll start my own similar bet for the same charities.
I would suggest taking a chance on Longford & Down, as both are odds against and have at least a 50/50 chance. The odds in the other 3 matches are too short for any bets.
Cheers lads. Ye are making it hard on me to count the votes though. Between trebles and different amounts...
I just back each game straight on it's own merits, kind of as a test of prediction skill as well. I know some of the matches are no value, but if you get them right you don't lose money and march on.
I know it's not the best value or the most exciting, but things will heat up as the summer progresses.
So. I am doing 5 €10 bets (all singles) this weekend. I know I'm a boring aul sh1te.
I realise I didn't vote myself.
I think I'd be going for
Longford
Draw between Cavan and Down
Antrim
Derry
Sligo
(By the way, that's just MY vote, not the actual bets)
I'd say Longford is the only value in that lot.
Gotcha now
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - Cavan
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - Westmeath
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - Sligo
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - Antrim
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - Draw (heart over head)
Great idea, if it goes belly-up, set up a pay-pal account so we can donate.
Value bet to meis a Longford Weatmeath draw otherwise
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - Cavan
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - Draw
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - SLIGO
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - ANTRIM
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - DERRY
QuoteQuote from: AZOffaly on Today at 09:36:37 AM
I have €100 in my PP account (Sorry LoneShark, but its handier to use in Ireland with Laser Cards), and will use that as our seed money to kickstart the season.
Ladbrokes also take laser.
Really? From an Irish bank? They gave out about my BOI Laser card anyway when I tried to register online.
Cavan
Westmeath
Sligo
Antrim
Derry
Quote from: AZOffaly on May 11, 2007, 11:50:25 AM
QuoteQuote from: AZOffaly on Today at 09:36:37 AM
I have €100 in my PP account (Sorry LoneShark, but its handier to use in Ireland with Laser Cards), and will use that as our seed money to kickstart the season.
Ladbrokes also take laser.
Yip,i've been there for years - it's more difficult to get paid out, but once you set it up once that's it, they can transfer the money out easily - not that that is ever an issue for me :'( :'(
Really? From an Irish bank? They gave out about my BOI Laser card anyway when I tried to register online.
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - DOWN
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - DRAW
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - SLIGO
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - ANTRIM
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - DERRY
Fair play to ya Bogball, great Idea!!
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - DRAW
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - DRAW
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - SLIGO
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - ANTRIM
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - DERRY
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - Cavan
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - Westmeath
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - Sligo
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - Antrim
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - Derry
i'll gladly throw in a few bob if you tell me how. it would be good to do it with lone shark if possible az as hes a great contributer to the board...
I tried to do it with LS's crowd, but they couldn't process my Laster Card. I'd have no bother transferring it if he tells me how.
LS??? Any craic? :D
There's no need to throw in any money though. I'm just doing it using my account, and hopefully there'll be a few bob for charity out of my enjoyment later in the year. It's not a biggie. I'm not taking donations or anything like that :) I'm just giving the GAA Board a chance to influence where my few quid goes every week, with the winnings (including the initial €100) going to the charities.
Cavan
Westmeath
Sligo
Antrim
Derry
Looks like Cavan, Westmeath, Sligo, Antrim and Derry will be carrying the hopes of the GAA Board this week. Still a few hours to go though.
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - Down
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - Westmeath
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - Sligo
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - Antrim
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - Derry
Id be very wary of putting money on cavan. i think that the draw could be the best bet .
Cavan
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - Abstain
Sligo
Antrim
Derry
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - DOWN
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - DRAW
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - SLIGO
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - ANTRIM
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - DERRY
Down won't be beat on Sunday!!!
Ulster SFC
Cavan (8/13) v Down (7/4) (Draw 13/2) - Cavan by 2
Leinster SFC
Longford (6/4) v Westmeath (8/11) (Draw 13/2) - Westmeath
Connacht SFC
New York (7/1) v Sligo (1/16) (Draw 14/1) - Sligo
Uslter SHC
Antrim (1/33) v London (8/1) (Draw 20/1) - Antrim
Derry (1/14) v Armagh (6/1) (Draw 18/1) - Derry
In fairness I think he just cut and pasted the post above. Looks funny though :D
Well lads,
We're off and running. Westmeath, Cavan, Sligo, Antrim and Derry are the first 5 teams with a tenner on each to gather a few pennies. Not much value, but when the summer heats up we'll start aiming for higher returns. Sure a couple of hundred at the end of the summer would still be better than nothing for a couple of good causes.
Cheers for your help.
Sorry for being slow off the mark - was up in Dublin today on work duties, haven't been near a computer all day.
Being Friday evening now all the 9 to fivers will be gone home, but I should be able to set something up for you next week. Leave it with me anyway. Certainly we do take laser now, but without knowing the specifics of why your card didn't work I couldn't comment - I haven't heard of any issues though.
If you were putting on a few bob, though I accept this is a bit late and a bit complicated, but my recommendation is betting on the Longford vs Westmeath match, three or more goals @ 12/5. That would represent value if it was anything over a 29% chance of happening, and a lot of Longford games tend to have three or more goals - 50% roughly over the last three years (not including turkey shoots against London and the like). Westmeath aren't particularly free with the twine rattling in comparison, but they aren't particularly goal shy either. I'd make this no bigger than a 6/4 shot in this game.
That's my two cents anyway.
Will get back to you on the account thing next week.
Hi LS,
No bother. I wonder is it because of the website I went to? ladbrokes.co.uk? Is there an ie version? It certainly didn't like my BOI laser anyhow.
Maybe I should do an additional €10 bet per week on the Lone Sharks Special :D I'll take the 3 goals bet as our starter and see how we go.
Cheers
Never trust a bookie! Its to late now but I would fancy Down,Westmeath,Derry,Antrim and Sligo.
Not a great first week at all, but Lone Shark's 'Bet of the Week' saved us.
Westmeath Lost
Cavan Drew
Antrim, Sligo and Derry all won, but only returned a total of €1.64 :D
However Lone Shark's suggest 3 goals or more bet at 12/5 returned €34
So, the balance going into next weekend is €105.64
Well done Loneshark
Quote from: Lone Shark on May 11, 2007, 06:53:55 PM
Sorry for being slow off the mark - was up in Dublin today on work duties, haven't been near a computer all day.
Being Friday evening now all the 9 to fivers will be gone home, but I should be able to set something up for you next week. Leave it with me anyway. Certainly we do take laser now, but without knowing the specifics of why your card didn't work I couldn't comment - I haven't heard of any issues though.
If you were putting on a few bob, though I accept this is a bit late and a bit complicated, but my recommendation is betting on the Longford vs Westmeath match, three or more goals @ 12/5. That would represent value if it was anything over a 29% chance of happening, and a lot of Longford games tend to have three or more goals - 50% roughly over the last three years (not including turkey shoots against London and the like). Westmeath aren't particularly free with the twine rattling in comparison, but they aren't particularly goal shy either. I'd make this no bigger than a 6/4 shot in this game.
That's my two cents anyway.
Will get back to you on the account thing next week.
Good Man Lone Shark
Quote from: AZOffaly on May 11, 2007, 11:08:26 AM
I think I'd be going for
Longford
Draw between Cavan and Down
Antrim
Derry
Sligo
(By the way, that's just MY vote, not the actual bets)
Pity, you hadn't had an auld acca on that lot!! You'd be able to set up a bill gates type trust fund!!!
are we having a punt this weekend AZ?
Conor Mort to top score 6-4 8)
right lads €50 in play again this weekend
€20 accumulator on Louth, Tyrone, Cork, Clare and Mayo to return €120
€30 doubles from three of Kildare, Down and Down in the hurling. Would return €99 if they all win.
Cheers
Quote from: 5iveTimes on May 19, 2007, 02:53:26 PM
Might be worth sticking a few quid on the Louth goalkeeper to score a point tomorrow. He will be taking the 45s and has scored a few recently. He also scored 11 points in a recent club game. He was 33/1 earlier in the week but has dropped considerably with local bookies. Boylesports have also got wind of this, but if you can get him at good odds, take him.
5ive Times, sounds like an interesting bet, checked with Boyles and they don't have the bet, if you happen to be on the board on Sunday morning let me know where I could get some of the action.
Quote from: 5iveTimes on May 22, 2007, 10:08:36 AM
I think Louth were expecting a very easy time on Sunday, by all accounts they didnt even deserve the draw.
No doubt Wicklow were the better team on the day, I was actually glad that it was a draw in the end, if we had of snuck the win there would be too many questions going into the Wexford game. Louth have far more scope to improve during the week than Wicklow do. I think the tighter pitch in Parnell park will suit Louth more than it will Wicklow. Louth won't be part of my bet this coming weekend!!
two sundays two draws. there feckin up our bets...
I don't think it is a great weekend for betting on the GAA. I'm just going to do a €10 treble myself. The bet is with PP
London (+6) 5/6
Armagh (+2) 5/6
Laois (+6) 1/1
€10 winning bet should return €67, but to be honest I'm doing it more for the interest than anything, be doing well if it came up!
Right lads, the old Charity betting is working out fairly mucky. We are down to 44 euros, at this stage after Louth let us down in a double with Leitrim, and an Armagh - donegal draw narrowly failed to materialise. Only Offaly at -6 in the handicap gave us some consolation.
We need a few good bets this weekend, so have at it.
Fair play AZ a good cause....heres my two pence worth
Laois to narrowly beat longford,,,, I seen lone shark saved you last time. Longfords defence is poor and leaks goals but forwards are goal getters so may be worth another punt.
Dubs to narrowly beat Meath..tough call..meath were class against us in league.
Louth to scrape past wicklow.. we were way better than wicklow in league but a decent side..suprised me this yr thought louth were alot better.
Kerry to beat deise by a about 8pts
cork to beat tipp by about 10pts
Derry to beat antrim by 4pts we play brutal and still beat antrim comfortably in league
Antrim to beat Down in hurling
I used to bet on what I call bankers..to me kerry,cork,derry, antrim hurlers and probably laois are my bankers. Doubt it would bring you back much. Itd be worth someone posting the gaa specials for you. Im restricted from bookies websites co policy.
Best of luck.
The points spread on Dublin v. Meath could be interesting. Meath +2 would be a good bet in my book.
Other games look straightforward bar Louth/Wicklow which I don't understand.
Laois
Dubs
Wicklow
Kerry
Cork
Derry
Antrim to beat Down in hurling
Seanie - PPower is going 5/6 for Meath +3.
I can't see any match betting up on Ladbrokes site and the special bets seem to have gone too. All I can see is the outright betting for the All-Ireland. Am I looking in the wrong place?
Thanks Hardy. Gambling sites blocked in work. Will be having a slice of that for myself at the weekend.
what price for the saffrons to beat Derry? bound to be 4/1 anyway and def worth a punt.
One things for certain, if the bookies are offering Antrim plus 5 or 6 points Slim shall be delving into the communion money!
Seanie - SLIGO are 5/2 to beat Roscommon..I think very generous odds. I put 20 euro on us. It gives me 50 euro profit. We have decent record in hyde. Draw is 15/2 which is tempting but we dont win replays so win the first day.
5/2 is tempting alright. It's closer than that.
We gave your first team a bit of a scare with our seconds at the weekend - were you there?
Quote from: Hardy on May 29, 2007, 03:11:00 PM
Seanie - PPower is going 5/6 for Meath +3.
I can't see any match betting up on Ladbrokes site and the special bets seem to have gone too. All I can see is the outright betting for the All-Ireland. Am I looking in the wrong place?
All gone up now - I'll post the match and handicap betting below, but the live match goalscorers and specials are all available online as well. Specials on non live matches will follow later in the week.
Lads, I might be shooting myself in the foot here, but the biggest advantage the punter has over the bookie is the fact that the bookie has to price up events early in the week due to various reasons, ut ye don't have to bet until ye think ye have an advantage. If you know something that's about to become national knowledge then by all means cash in on it, but if you don't and you're just picking your selections for the week, why on earth would you not wait until Saturday evening when all the info will be clear?
This week, for reasons of printing a coupon, I have to do my handicap betting on Dork vs Tipp in the football - in the meantime Declan Browne is an injury scare and may not play. That's obviously a four point swing right there, but I can't wait any longer - ye on the other hand can wait until ye know one way or another before playing - don't waste that.
Now please, no-one point out to my employers that I was telling ye how to bet .......
Event Date Time Home Team Away Team Home Draw Away
Leinster Championship Quarter Final 2007-06-02 18:45:00 Longford Laois 3/1 8/1 1/3
Leinster Championship First Round Replay 2007-06-03 14:10:00 Louth Wicklow 4/7 6/1 2/1
Leinster Championship Quarter Final 2007-06-03 16:00:00 Dublin Meath 1/2 7/1 9/4
Munster Championship Semi Final 2007-06-03 14:00:00 Waterford Kerry 10/1 20/1 1/33
Munster Championship Semi Final 2007-06-03 15:30:00 Cork Tipperary 1/33 20/1 10/1
Ulster Championship Final 2007-06-03 14:15:00 Antrim Down 2/11 14/1 4/1
Ulster Championship Quarter Final 2007-06-03 16:15:00 Antrim Derry 4/1 11/1 1/5 |
Handicap Draw
5/4 Longford (+3pts) 8/1 Laois (-3pts) 4/5
1/1 Louth (-2pts) 8/1 Wicklow (+2pts) 1/1
11/10 Dublin (-3pts) 8/1 Meath (+3pts) 10/11
10/11 Waterford (+8pts) 14/1 Kerry (-8pts) 10/11
10/11 Cork (-8pts) 14/1 Tipperary (+8pts) 10/11
10/11 Antrim (-6pts) 14/1 Down (+6pts) 10/11
10/11 Antrim (+5pts) 10/1 Derry (-5pts) 1/1 |
Thanks, LS.
Quote from: Lone Shark on May 30, 2007, 08:46:34 AM
why on earth would you not wait until Saturday evening when all the info will be clear?
The only reason I'd do it (did it this week on Meath at 11/4 with PP) is if I think an early price is very good value and I want to get on in case it attracts a lot of money and disappears fast. (I see PP is down to 9/4 this morning). I know Darren Fay, Moyles and the whole full forward line could get the summer vomiting bug and it wouldn't be value any more, but I suppose all those risks are factored into whether you think the early price is good value, even though it's more of a gamble than a bet five minutes before throw-in.
I would very much agree with Lone Shark on the waiting until Saturday night, I could be wrong but I don't think prices fluctate that much (although I take your point Hardy on the 11/4)
If I backed against my county and was able to back Meath and was having a bet now instead of Saturday evening I would go for the folowing at the moment (a lot of ifs!!)
Longford (+3) 5/4
Kerry (-8) 10/11
Meath (+3) 10/11
Wicklow (+2) Evens (I can't believe the odds on this have not changed dramatically, I can't see too much money coming for Louth at 4/7, I expect something like 8/11)
I work it out to be better than 15/1 accum
Ladbrokes had a special on Shane O'Rourke to score for Meath in the championship at 5/1, I don't see this on the website, is this on offer Lone Shark??
Quote from: Lone Shark on May 30, 2007, 08:46:34 AM
If you know something that's about to become national knowledge then by all means cash in on it, but if you don't and you're just picking your selections for the week, why on earth would you not wait until Saturday evening when all the info will be clear?
The problems of course with that is that if Declan Browne misses the game try and get more than a fiver on on Saturday evening.
At least during the week you will get your bet on before any team news becomes widely known.
11/4 on Meath still available with Boyles and Stan James.
Quote from: Hardy on May 30, 2007, 09:14:22 AM
Thanks, LS.
Quote from: Lone Shark on May 30, 2007, 08:46:34 AM
why on earth would you not wait until Saturday evening when all the info will be clear?
The only reason I'd do it (did it this week on Meath at 11/4 with PP) is if I think an early price is very good value and I want to get on in case it attracts a lot of money and disappears fast. (I see PP is down to 9/4 this morning).
I dont believe PP were ever 11/4 Meath. But the early bird can catch the worm there is no doubt.
You're right bombidal - confusion on my part. I have a good few live bets and I forgot that I had my money on Meath with Boyles, not PP. As long as I don't forgot who to collect from, I'll be OK.
Number of Draws
( all 6 championship games must be played )
4/7 0 draws
7/4 exactly 1 draw
10/1 exactly 2 draws
16/1 3 or more
Game with the Most goals
( all 6 championship games must be played )
2/1 Cork v Tipperary
9/4 Waterford v Kerry
9/2 Dublin v Meath
9/2 Longford v Laois
15/2 Louth v Wicklow
9/1 Antrim v Derry
Highest Scoring Match
( all 6 championship games must be played )
9/4 Cork v Tipperary
5/2 Waterford v Kerry
4/1 Dublin v Meath
9/2 Longford v Laois
6/1 Louth v Wicklow
8/1 Antrim v Derry
Land of the Giants
Who will Score more ( 1 goal = 3pts ), both must start
3/2 M Cussen ( Cork )
1/2 K Donaghy ( Kerry )
Sharp Shooter Shootout
Who will Score most ( 1 goal = 3pts ) only below players count, all must start
5/2 J Masters
4/1 P Bradley
5/1 C Cooper
6/1 T Quinn
7/1 D Browne
8/1 B Kavanagh
10/1 MF Russell
14/1 J Sheridan
20/1 R Munnelly
33/1 T Gill
Mythical Match Betting
( team to score the most )
11/8 Kerry
16/1 Draw
4/7 Cork
11/10 Dublin
12/1 draw
4/5 Laois
Match Specials ( please add to individual match)
Louth v Wicklow
16/1 Louth and Wicklow to draw again and Wicklow to win after extra time
14/1 Louth and Wicklow to draw again and Louth to win after extra time
40/1 Louth and Wicklow to draw again after extra time
dublin v meath
12/1 G Geraghty to get sent off
12/1 G Geraghty to get ' elected ' Sunday Game Man of the Match
33/1 Meath to warm up at Hill 16 end of ground and fight to break out between players before start of game
9/2 2 or more players to get sent off
400/1 Game to go to 3 replays
100/1 C Whelan to get sent off due to striking incident at throw at Start of the Match
80/1 A Brogan to score a Hat-Trick
Kerry v Waterford
5/1 C Cooper to outscore Waterford
33/1 K Donaghy to score a hat-trick of goals
25/1 Waterford to fail to score in either half
28/1 All 3 O'Se brothers to score a pt
2/1 All 6 of Kerry's starting forwards to score from play
10/3 Kerry to fail to score a goal
Cork v Tippeary
14/1 Declan Browne to be Tipperary's only scorer v Cork
7/4 J Masters to outscore Tipperary on his own
I havnt got time to do it now, but has anyone any idea about the amount of draws in last years football championship?
If you got 13/2 or 7/1 for each draw wonder how you would have finished the year. I know there have already been a few draws this year & there seems to be less & less between teams every year
I checked that out a while ago full back, because we all feel there's a disproportionate number of draws because of referees taking it upon themselves to alter the laws of time to make sure neither side is disappointed in a close match.
But no – the draw odds on offer are generally very measly compared with the statistics on actual draws. I don't remember exactly the number of draws, but it was about six altogether in last year's football championship and you'd be losing heavily if, for instance, you backed a draw in every game that had the possibility of a draw (i.e. leaving out obvious mismatches). There's no flies on them bookies.
£20 on 1 draw at 7/4
£10 on 2 draws at 10/1
Are Tipp that bad +8 10/11, I might take a stab at that.
Quote from: bombidal on May 31, 2007, 03:29:48 PM
Sharp Shooter Shootout
Who will Score most ( 1 goal = 3pts ) only below players count, all must start
5/2 J Masters
4/1 P Bradley
5/1 C Cooper
6/1 T Quinn
7/1 D Browne
8/1 B Kavanagh
10/1 MF Russell
14/1 J Sheridan
20/1 R Munnelly
33/1 T Gill
Fairly reasonable to assume Bradley won't start - i know that means bet's void, no advanatge to punter or bookie, but you might want to reframe that one.
Tried Betfair there for the first time. Is there a catch with it? How come nearly all odds are better - eg - Antrim at 6
Quote from: ONeill on May 31, 2007, 08:15:10 PM
Tried Betfair there for the first time. Is there a catch with it? How come nearly all odds are better - eg - Antrim at 6
Because they charge you to deposit, they charge you to withdraw, and there is a 5% commission, unless you're a wojious high roller. That 5/1 is 4.75/1 when commission is finished, less than Paddy Power, Bet365 or William Hill. Plus you can only have a tenner right now.
Basically liquidity is appalling and unlike bookies the price you see is not what you get. I've yet to see a GAA match where I would be better off depositing €200, betting, collecting the winnings and withdrawing than I would be if I had got best price in the bookies.
Now for the likes of Golf or big soccer matches it can be another kettle of fish though - but for GAA I wouldn't recommend it at all.
here is one I reckon some charity money should go on. Down at 6/4 to beat monaghan with Stan James or even 11/8 with Boyles. Cannot see this lasting as Down should be favourites with the home advantage.
Bradley aint starting!
While im at it -
Elected!
Money-Back Special
Paddy Power will refund all losing bets on this match if Graham Geraghty scores the last goal.
-
Quote from: Lone Shark on May 31, 2007, 08:41:12 PM
Quote from: ONeill on May 31, 2007, 08:15:10 PM
Tried Betfair there for the first time. Is there a catch with it? How come nearly all odds are better - eg - Antrim at 6
Because they charge you to deposit, they charge you to withdraw, and there is a 5% commission, unless you're a wojious high roller. That 5/1 is 4.75/1 when commission is finished, less than Paddy Power, Bet365 or William Hill. Plus you can only have a tenner right now.
Basically liquidity is appalling and unlike bookies the price you see is not what you get. I've yet to see a GAA match where I would be better off depositing €200, betting, collecting the winnings and withdrawing than I would be if I had got best price in the bookies.
Now for the likes of Golf or big soccer matches it can be another kettle of fish though - but for GAA I wouldn't recommend it at all.
I've yet to see a bookie who will let me lay any side - plus there's no lodgement or withdrawal charge for laser/debit cards. Agreed that liquidity isn't great most of the time, but for bigger games it works out grand.
Quote
I've yet to see a bookie who will let me lay any side - plus there's no lodgement or withdrawal charge for laser/debit cards. Agreed that liquidity isn't great most of the time, but for bigger games it works out grand.
the 15 quid you can have on the draw in the dublin meath game & the 121 quid on dublin at 1.45.... 1.5 with ladbrokes and no commision... really speaks volumes about gaa on betfair. ( im presuming the dublin meath game is a big one ).
Quote from: bombidal on May 31, 2007, 10:05:24 PM
Quote
I've yet to see a bookie who will let me lay any side - plus there's no lodgement or withdrawal charge for laser/debit cards. Agreed that liquidity isn't great most of the time, but for bigger games it works out grand.
the 15 quid you can have on the draw in the dublin meath game & the 121 quid on dublin at 1.45.... 1.5 with ladbrokes and no commision... really speaks volumes about gaa on betfair. ( im presuming the dublin meath game is a big one ).
Don't worry about the liquidity - if you put it on, it will be taken!!, there's only one price (that's antrim to win) on there at present that's worse than any price that paddypower is giving for sat/sun football games (even after commission has been deducted). I know Ladbrokes often give better prices than powers anyway, and betfair doesn't appeal to most punters, but it certainly has it's place and I would never look past it for singles - it's especially generous for draw prices.
Quote
Don't worry about the liquidity - if you put it on, it will be taken!!, there's only one price (that's antrim to win) on there at present that's worse than any price that paddypower is giving for sat/sun football games (even after commission has been deducted). ,
both pts you make here are just not true.... I think Befair is great but in terms of Gaa punting it is useless.
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 31, 2007, 11:39:19 PM
Quote from: bombidal on May 31, 2007, 10:05:24 PM
Quote
I've yet to see a bookie who will let me lay any side - plus there's no lodgement or withdrawal charge for laser/debit cards. Agreed that liquidity isn't great most of the time, but for bigger games it works out grand.
the 15 quid you can have on the draw in the dublin meath game & the 121 quid on dublin at 1.45.... 1.5 with ladbrokes and no commision... really speaks volumes about gaa on betfair. ( im presuming the dublin meath game is a big one ).
Don't worry about the liquidity - if you put it on, it will be taken!!, there's only one price (that's antrim to win) on there at present that's worse than any price that paddypower is giving for sat/sun football games (even after commission has been deducted). I know Ladbrokes often give better prices than powers anyway, and betfair doesn't appeal to most punters, but it certainly has it's place and I would never look past it for singles - it's especially generous for draw prices.
Bogball I know I could be seen as a vested interest, but I'm strictly speaking as someone who likes a punt on the GAA myself, and Betfair is utterly useless. If you like betting in fivers and tenners it's not too bad, but anything beyond that and it's a waste of space. Saying something like "if you put it there it will be taken" is just plain wrong. As Bombidal said, best price in the bookies this weekend on Dublin is 1.5 - so in order to make it worth doing with Betfair, you'd have to get 4/7, or 1.57 - now do you think if I put in €2k at 1.57 it would be taken? And what do I do while I'm waiting for this? You don't know leaving the computer whether you have a bet or not. I'm pretty sure if that was your money you'd want a bit more certainty.
Loneshark, do you do speculative All-Star odds? I'm not trying to be the funny guy, but what price, given the furore at the minute, would you give for Paddy Bradley?
I'll happily quote you. Truth be told the furore will make feck all difference if Derry make the quarter finals and Bradley's among the top three or four scorers, but even so....
5/1 I'll do for you. If that's of interest, feel free to pm or reply, whichever suits....
Quote from: bombidal on May 31, 2007, 03:29:48 PM
Mythical Match Betting
( team to score the most )
11/8 Kerry
16/1 Draw
4/7 Cork
11/10 Dublin
12/1 draw
4/5 Laois
For the purposes of the charity bet, can I recommend the above? It's not way wrong, but I suspect it's a bit on the big side. If we take it that Dublin and Laois are both going to score at least 0-10 and unlikely to score more than 2-15, you have a range of 12 different scores either team can finish on. In all likelihood it'll be somewhere around the middle - in which case 12/1 will be on the big side. Arguably this is more likely than eitehr side to draw their own games. I estimate this to be about an 8/1 shot - like I said, not huge, but worth a small bet.
The same logic applies to the other game, but since the spread on potential scores is so much bigger against cannon fodder, I wouldn't recommend it as quickly.
My recommendations for this week are as follows:
Longford (+3) 6/4
Meath (+3) 10/11
Derry (-5) Evens
Comes to about 8.5/1 Treble with Ladbrokes
Also with Ladbrokes, first goal scorer in Louth v Wicklow, Paddy Keenan is definitely worth a sporting fiver at odds of 33/1
This hasn't come up yet this week. Again, for what it's worth, my recommendation is Neville Coughlan for first goalscorer for Offaly against Carlow. Full PP market below. At 16/1 he's worth a decent nibble because (1) the danger from the two corner forwards will be well flagged, I've a sneaking suspicion Carlow will drop an extra full back on them to cover (2) PJ Ward is a useless plank who will only be there to hit high ball onto and couldn't score anyway (3) Neville is the only half forward who'll be coming onto the FF line at pace to take the layoff if the lads get out in front. He's not the most accurate in the world, but he does charge in for goals a lot - he actually scores nearly as many goals as points, though admittedly not many of either. I'd make him about an 8/1 shot or so (obviously Niall and Deehan are still the two favourites) but he's a live contender. Split the stake between first and last goalscorer to give it a chance.
N McNamee 4 - 1 No Goalscorer 15 - 2 B Kelly 8 - 1
T Deehan 5 - 1 D Hayden 9 - 1
PJ Ward 7 - 1 M Carpenter 10 - 1
C McManus 12 - 1 P Reid 12 - 1
P Kellaghan 16 - 1 D Byrne 16 - 1
N Coughlan 16 - 1 K Nolan 28 - 1
A McNamee 25 - 1 M Brennan 50 - 1
N Smith 33 - 1 G Morrissey 50 - 1
C Slattery 33 - 1 P Cashin 66 - 1
For what it is worth, here is my bet for the weekend - One up already anyway!!
Dublin (+6) 4/5
Derry (-4) 8/11
Limerick (+2) 6/5
Monaghan (+1) 8/11
Offaly 1/16
It comes to 11.5/1
The odds are from VC Bet (I would be one of the few that have an account with them her in ROI) but they are one shower of
B^&$$ds to ring a GAA bet in to!!
Dublin + 5 at 11/10 with Boylesports combined with Down (11/10) and Tipp (1/2). Pays 11/2 if it hits. Good start anyway.
Louth Exile - I have a VC Bet account too, but I don't remember ever placing a GAA bet with them. I do it on line anyway. I suppose if it's just you and me over here they don't have a roomful of staff on it!
Yahoo... the first accum up this year, bookies beware :D
Quote from: Hardy on June 10, 2007, 12:32:53 PM
Louth Exile - I have a VC Bet account too, but I don't remember ever placing a GAA bet with them. I do it on line anyway. I suppose if it's just you and me over here they don't have a roomful of staff on it!
I am an awful man for pricing 4 or 5 bookies given not just the different odds but the different handicap points as well. I always hope there is another firm offering better bet than VC because they are torture. I use the net to pick out the bet but then proceed to ring the bet in. (I know it doesn't make a lot of sense! at least its a freephone number)
I rang the bet in about ten minutes before throw in with the Dublin yesterday and just about had it done before throw in!! The line I kept getting from your man was "I am not familiar with these sports is it soccer of rugby" >:( No I can see it on the net its down as f**king Gaelic games on your site, hurling and gaelic football (I didn't say that to him though)
Anyway, all is well that ends well given the account a nice wee boost ;D Going to stick it all on Louth next Sunday ;)
Good one! It's some going to get a 5-horse accum up.
Quote from: Louth Exile on June 10, 2007, 11:28:01 PM
Going to stick it all on Louth next Sunday ;)
I'd suggest putting it on Meath. The bookies and punters are unconvinced by last week, when we should have won by six points and we're still 2/1. Value or what, with our top scorer back, our stronger bench, our better management, our reliable free-taker (there will be frees, won't there?) and our freedom from head-wrecking pressure.
I think attention needs to be drawn to Lone Sharks last three bet tips!
First off the goals in the Westmeath/Longford game, then a 12/1 with the Draw for the dublin/laois mythical match and a 16/1 for the first goal of yesterdays Offaly/Carlow game! I can see why you are in the profession you are in - you clearly know your stuff. Well I took the first goal option yesterday....much obliged!
If you were to tell me you think Derry may win the All-Ireland now, you'd make me a very happy chappy!
Quote from: Louth Exile on June 10, 2007, 11:28:01 PM
Going to stick it all on Louth next Sunday ;)
I'd suggest putting it on Meath. The bookies and punters are unconvinced by last week, when we should have won by six points and we're still 2/1. Value or what, with our top scorer back, our stronger bench, our better management, our reliable free-taker (there will be frees, won't there?) and our freedom from head-wrecking pressure.
[/quote]
One thing I won't be doing next weekend is including Louth in my bet, not that I don't think we can win, I do, but I find when I'm too close to the game its skews my judgement! If there are any kind of decent odds on something like Meath(+2) they will be in.
Well done lone shark on the first goal scorer, the rationale was sound as well (apart from Ward being a plank) he did score the goal by coming onto the FF line at pace and taking a lay off. You are in the right game, you know too much!!
You'll notice that my outright odds on Derry tend to be on the bigger side. Read into that what you will...... ;)
I stand by my "Ward is a plank" observation. His eight or nine points yesterday came from a combined total of about 120 yards out, he missed two awful handy frees, including one 14m one at the corner of the penalty area, and his distribution is slow.
Suffice it to say that if Dublin/Meath decide to focus on the threat that Ward poses, instead of for arguments sake, a less high profile player like Niall McNamee ( ;)) I won't be too unhappy.
Quote from: oakleafer on June 11, 2007, 10:41:47 AM
I think attention needs to be drawn to Lone Sharks last three bet tips!
Hear! Hear! Great going there L.S.
Alright bucks,
We could do with a couple of decent scores here. I'll be around this weekend so I'll be able to access the board, unlike the past few weeks when I've missed Lone Sharks bankers.
So, now that I'm around to jinx whatever the bet(s) is, fire them on....
Donegal, Cork, Wexford in a tenner trixie.
Wonder could you get odds on at least one draw this weekend ?
Personally think Sligo +3 is close to a banker. Should be low scoring and tight. Last four meetings in championship have seen 3 draws after 70 minutes and a 1 point win for the Rossies. Odds are just less than evens but its a strong start to an accumulator or good cover bet I'd think.
Gnevin - Back all the games for level stakes:
Hurling 9/1 and 9/1
Football 13/2, 13/2, 7/1 and 7/1
Thus in total you have 6 bets, minimum return of 13/2 - works out at just over evs, up to a maximum of 9/1 = 6/4, plus you might get a few draws up and thus a bit of bonus money too.
Quote from: Gnevin on June 15, 2007, 11:21:48 AM
Wonder could you get odds on at least one draw this weekend ?
6/5 a draw this weekend
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_sports_level1&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=1&ev_class_id=158
Where are you Lone Shark?? I like to think I know it all but was going to take your advice before doing my bet this week.
I have just went through the Boyles, PP, Ladbrokes & VC websites and my head is spinning with the amount of different bets you can do. Pick out a few of them....
Meath & Donegal 11/2 (Boyles) this looks like a good one I think
JP Rooney to score a goal at anytime in Louth game 6/1 (Ladbrokes) great bit of value here I think and worth a tenner
G Geraghty to get straight Red card for hitting David Henry in the face 25/1 (PP) ;D Poor value I think, rather take on the evens that he gets a yellow
I'm going all out this week after my win last week...
Meath & Donegal at 11/2 - €10
Donegal (+1) 8/11
Louth (+1) 4/5
Meath (+2) 13/10
Waterford 8/11
€10 Accum at 11.3/1 also 4 €5 cross trebles
Added Roscommon into the mix at 4/9 and did a €10 Accum at 16.8/1 as well
All above bets with Boylesports
Finally, €10 on JP Rooney to score a goal at any stage in the Louth game at 6/1 with Ladbrokes
This is definitely value given that in the championship he scores a goal on average 1 in 5 games, however this week he is also back to FF line against a questionable full back line and is in the form of his life, this should be no bigger than 4/1. Both D Clarke (never scored a championship goal)& Shane Lennon are shorter odds than Rooney!
Decided not to do the football treble I was going to do, Thank God (Dublin -5, Galway -5 & Monaghan +1)
Wasn't going to have a bet until the hurling came in level at half time again!! Rang in the draw at 15/2
Delighted, three weeks of money up, long may it last....
Did Leitrim +5, Monaghan to win and Dublin -5. 2 outta 3 aint bad I suppose but I was disgusted with the Dubs who were 8 points up with 10 to go or thereabouts. Thank God I didn't do an accumulator. That late Offaly free could have cost me a tidier sum than it did.
Not sure if people are still following this, but anyway......
I'd recommend two bets this week.
(1) Stan James have done like many others and put Armagh vs Derry up as a three point handicap - but they've gone 10/1 a handicap draw. A very big price about a quite likely outcome. I'd make this a true odds 7/1 shot or so, so a small bit of value here.
(2) A treble with Paddy Powers. My own maximum stake allowed is €4.63, and based on previous I'm not sure I'd get paid anyway, but for the rest of ye, I'd suggest Antrim hurlers @ 8/13 (played better against Clare than the scoreline suggests, and tend not to lose games at home against mid tier teams like themselves), Mayo footballers @ 1/5 (Cannot lose and will probably win by ten) and Limerick on their alternative handicap plus seven points in the Munster Final @ 4/7. Limerick will fight this all the way, and I can't see Waterford walking away from them. It's barely over 2/1 the treble, so you won't get rich, but I can see it working out well.
Didn't do a bet last week myself, but with all the qualifiers on this week there will have to be an auld accum.
Do you know where there are any Stan James offices in the North East LS, quick scan of the net didn't help me.
I see you have the best price on Louth at 9/5, apart from the 7 walk outs in the camp I heard unconfirmed (note: unconfirmed) reports that Shane Lennon is not training. Also one of the Finnegan brothers is getting married on Friday, hope we don't have a repeat of what happened after David Brennan's wedding earlier in the year! At this stage I think even 9/5 could drift ;)
If you don't mind me asking, how hard did you look? ???
www.stanjames.com (http://www.stanjames.com)
Quote from: Louth Exile on July 05, 2007, 08:29:16 PM
Do you know where there are any Stan James offices in the North East LS, quick scan of the net didn't help me.
Quote from: Lone Shark on July 05, 2007, 09:32:46 PM
If you don't mind me asking, how hard did you look? ???
www.stanjames.com (http://www.stanjames.com)
Ahem, ahem....
:-[
Sorry, forgetting that not everyone has spent their entire working life in the seedy gambling world.....
SJ are internet only - no shops. My apologies good sir!
I have one - Donegal and louth to draw at 16/1. Rick of a price with Ladbrokes. Obviously no cert but if your not in you cant win.
Quote from: Lone Shark on July 05, 2007, 07:52:18 PM
based on previous I'm not sure I'd get paid anyway
;D
The power of understatement
I not part of the this charity bet, but my own bet down the bookies for the weekend is
€35 on all of the following to win
Mayo 1-6 (Could be a faller)
Galway Football 2-9
Meath 8-11 (One I'm most worried about)
Donegal 2-7
Armagh 4-9
Waterford 4-9
Cork 1-16
Tipperary 1-8
I think this would net me €265 if I win, I was tempted of choosing Galway or Clare in the hurling that would have turned it into big money (maybe) but it increase the risk dramatically.
I also have two other small €10 bets.
Fair play to you Sam, looking for eight favs to win! Hope it comes off for you.
Having said that, I still don't have a clue what my own bet is yet. Just about to head off for Limerick will have to pick the selections in the car
I did LS's bet plus trebles with William Hill (best selection of prices today) on all combinations of Meath, Leitrim, Limerick (football) and Antrim (hurling) plus the accumulator. Sorry not to be in Newry after all, though.
Quote from: Hardy on July 07, 2007, 04:01:28 PM
I did LS's bet plus trebles with William Hill (best selection of prices today) on all combinations of Meath, Leitrim, Limerick (football) and Antrim (hurling) plus the acumulator. Sorry not to be in Newry after all, though.
I think Down could scupper your acca.
They could of course. But I'm quietly confident that our forwards might make a little hay against the Down backs.
Quote from: Jack Dempsey on July 05, 2007, 11:37:05 PM
I have one - Donegal and louth to draw at 16/1. Rick of a price with Ladbrokes. Obviously no cert but if your not in you cant win.
Presumably you meant Donegal v Leitrim - good call, lucky, but good - wrecked a few bets for me!!
I had a mare, €20 on a four team accum, Meath were the only one to win. Donegal & Armagh were big disappointments but I was actaully cheering Sligo on at the end. Delighted for them.
Same here. Had the Donegal draw but Galway fucked me the useless ponces
Took the 11/2 on Sligo to win by 1-3 points. I rarely back something like that where I am "emotionally involved" for want of a better phrase as judgement can be clouded but it just stuck in my mind and I went and did it. Took out another few bob on a treble so a good weekend all told.
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 09, 2007, 03:43:59 PM
Took the 11/2 on Sligo to win by 1-3 points. I rarely back something like that where I am "emotionally involved" for want of a better phrase as judgement can be clouded but it just stuck in my mind and I went and did it. Took out another few bob on a treble so a good weekend all told.
Help fund the celebrations !! Well done
Right, so strange bets for me this week!!
Going to try and take on the mighty Lone Shark and doing the €10 accum in Ladrokes this weekend... not confident that I can take that lad though ;) a bit of letting the heart rule the head here (with the exception of Meath of course :D )
Meath 1/2
Louth (+3) 10/11
Monaghan (+4) 10/11
Laois (+3) 10/11
Not particularly recommending this to anyone as there is a fair bit heart rather than head in it but th odds on the handicap for the three outsiders were by far the best with Ladbrokes
Then, following a bit of advice from the aformentioned LS on another thread I have made the bold move of sticking a ton on Dublin Hurlers (+3) at evens. This is as big a stake as I will go on anything, so come on you boys in blue (did this with Boylesports, no surprisingly Ladbrokes were very short on this one for obvious reasons)
Finally, Ladbrokes again are offering odds on player to score a goal at any time in the Monaghan v Tyrone game. Although he is not named to start and no listing in the current prices going to head down to see if I can get a price on Paul Finlay to bag one. Just going to have a sporting tenner on this if I can get a decent price.
I'll give you 10/1 on Finley. I've passed it on to the call centre if you want to take them up on it.
where can i get a list of ladbrokes shops?
Quote from: Lone Shark on July 14, 2007, 01:09:44 PM
I'll give you 10/1 on Finley. I've passed it on to the call centre if you want to take them up on it.
When I went down they were quoting 4/1 :D Wasn't interested in that, 10/1 is a fair price, was hoping more along the lines of 33/1 though :D
Anyway, have to head back to the wee county now, might get a chance to drop into the Drogheda branch
With getting married in July and all that goes along with it I haven't been near the board in weeks, haven't had a GAA bet in ages either, not since the lumping on to the Dublin hurlers and getting badly stung ::) and Laois pulling down a nice wee accum :(
Anyway, back at it again this weekend, just a small €10 treble with Boyles at 7/1
Derry (+3) Evens
Monaghan (+5) Evens
Waterford (-4) Evens
Was looking for a price on the cheeky Dubs staying the pub and throw in being delayed... but they weren't offering odds ;D :D
Right, here's what I've done this weekend, prices still there if anyone wants to copy.....
Backed Amount X on Dan Shanahan to score a goal with Boyles @ 11/10
Backed 1.1X on Dan Shanahan to score under 5.5 points with PP @ 8/11.
If Dan scores a goal and ends up with 6 points or more, you break even.
If Dan fails to score a goal and ends up with 0-5 or less you lose 0.2X
If Dan scores 0-6 or more and no goal you lose both bets. (He's never raised six white flags in his championship career - I consider this a very remote possibility)
If Dan scores 1-0, 1-1, or 1-2 you collect both bets. Probably around 30% chance of this.
In addition, Boyles are money back on all losing Anytime goalscorer bets if a number 13 gets the last goal. With O'Shaughnessy and Mullane running for you, there's a decent chance that even if he does end up with 0-2 or so you might still make profit.
It's not for everyone, but if all that makes sense to ye, it might appeal - I'd recommend it anyway.
That's pretty impressive LS, I might just have a little wager on that.
I'm definitely picking my battles poorly at the moment!! I said that Cork would beat Meath and that Kerry would beat Dublin and didn't back either!!! :-\
Put €20 on the draw at half time in the game yesterday
Don't understand this betting lark but OZOffaly, do you have an indication of how much loot can be divided among the charities? Have the charities been published/decided?