The Horse racing thread

[Candyman]

Lucky 15:

Back In Focus @ 6/1    
Alfa Beat @ 14/1 
The Giant Bolster @ 8/1 (forgave him and DH after last month) 
Tranquil Sea @ 13/2

Also Backed for a bit of interest:

Dev @ 15/2
Baby Shine @ 7/1
Devil to Pay @ 3/1 (Fontwell)

Much drink taken?

AFTER LASTNIGHT???   Loads kiddo... sure i cant drink it all!! may as well blow a few quid at the donkeys 

[Brick Tamlin]

Has Alex Ferguson got a horse running today?

[RealSpiritof98]

Tranquil sea
Dev
Sparky May
Wayward Prince

[johnneycool]

I've just drawn the golden kite in the office sweep,

Has it got four legs and would I be better running the course myself?

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

I'm going to go for Bluesea Cracker. Irish National winner running off a low weight. Must have reasonable propsects of success.

My theory on Niche Market is that Ruby Walsh knows more about horses than me and he's not riding him. Mind you I suppose you could say the same about McCoy and Bluesea but you can't come off a National winner I suppose, plus the decision was made before JP bought Bluesea Cracker.

Price for Don't Push It has reached ridiculous levels. I'm not a backer of 1/8 shots so I won't be laying it but surely its completely overbet?

[Mac hinery]

As we've discussed, the stats are hard to assess this year for the National The handicapper has gone outside normal practice for the last few years and has tried to thwart trainers who try to keep under his radar by running their horses in hurdles and the like. He's tried to re-balance the weights so that better class horses are not run out of it by donkeys carrying hardly anything.

The result is probably good for the quality of the race, but bad for people trying to assess the statistics. For the last two years, the well-proven statistics of years have been torn up by the winners and placed horses.

A further result of this is that there are more horses entered with genuine chances - horses that meet the established profile of experience, results, jumping ability, season form, etc.

The upshot is that, even adjusting the weight criterion, more than half the field meet the main statistical criteria. Trying to narrow it down then becomes an exercise in applying less significant criteria and trying to weight these criteria in their importance. This really turns what's intended to be an objective assessment into a subjective judgement. Somebody else could apply the same tests, interpret them differently and come up with different selections. So I have no real confidence in the outcome.

OK – that's enough disclaimers.

I've narrowed the contenders down to five. The shortest is 20/1. That raises another stat – 7 of the last 10 winners were 20/1 or less. On the other hand, 9 of the last 10 winners were over 25/1 at publication of the weights. What can you make of that?

I'm probably going to back all of these each way:

Niche Market 20/1, 27 on Betfair
Chief Dan George 40/1, 70
Bluesea Cracker 25/1, 30
Can't Buy Time 66/1, 180 (!)
Golden Kite 66/1, 130

I'd be interested to hear bcarrier's and other stats fans' take on the race and DH's form view.

Cheers Hardy.  Your Grand National list is sort of an institution now.

[Sea The Stars]

Fantastic spectacle in prospect tomorrow! I love the Grand National as a watching race but not as a betting one.

Being through the form several times, and there's about a dozen runners who I'd make a serious case for, and another dozen who with a bit of luck, I feel would run very well. Thus, exemplifying the lottery nature of the race. I wouldn't be a massive advocate of anything but those interested in a once-a-year bet could do worse than put something on a pair of 100/1 outsiders, Can't Buy Time and King Fontaince.

The Irish challenge is strong, The Midnight Club has got a lot of mentions on this thread, and I agree, he is a very solid contender and has been a worthy ante-post favourite, surprisingly usurped by Don't Push It tonight.

In reply to some of the posts on here, McCoy and Walsh ridden runners are usually overbet, and especially so, in the Grand National. I remember thinking last year as Don't Push It went 20s, 18s, 16s, 14s, 12s, 10s that the public were crazy to keep backing him. Even in hindsight, 10/1 was shocking value. But he lit up over the fences and ran the race of his life and he's only 7lbs higher this time (and I think 160 is one of the highest top weights ever).

The stats are beginning to sway towards a higher rated runner in the last two years, due to Phil Smith's leniancy towards horses at the head of the handicap. Not sure if they will prove as much addition as in other years but no harm to use them as a guide.

[Bogball XV]

As we've discussed, the stats are hard to assess this year for the National The handicapper has gone outside normal practice for the last few years and has tried to thwart trainers who try to keep under his radar by running their horses in hurdles and the like. He's tried to re-balance the weights so that better class horses are not run out of it by donkeys carrying hardly anything.

The result is probably good for the quality of the race, but bad for people trying to assess the statistics. For the last two years, the well-proven statistics of years have been torn up by the winners and placed horses.

A further result of this is that there are more horses entered with genuine chances - horses that meet the established profile of experience, results, jumping ability, season form, etc.

The upshot is that, even adjusting the weight criterion, more than half the field meet the main statistical criteria. Trying to narrow it down then becomes an exercise in applying less significant criteria and trying to weight these criteria in their importance. This really turns what's intended to be an objective assessment into a subjective judgement. Somebody else could apply the same tests, interpret them differently and come up with different selections. So I have no real confidence in the outcome.

OK – that's enough disclaimers.

I've narrowed the contenders down to five. The shortest is 20/1. That raises another stat – 7 of the last 10 winners were 20/1 or less. On the other hand, 9 of the last 10 winners were over 25/1 at publication of the weights. What can you make of that?

I'm probably going to back all of these each way:

Niche Market 20/1, 27 on Betfair
Chief Dan George 40/1, 70
Bluesea Cracker 25/1, 30
Can't Buy Time 66/1, 180 (!)
Golden Kite 66/1, 130

I'd be interested to hear bcarrier's and other stats fans' take on the race and DH's form view.

Here are the horse I've backed anyway - done on betfair, so only backed the bottom two for top 6 places - GL Hardy!!

[Radda bout yeee]

DH strikes again! Spirit son you wee beaut!!

[Donnellys Hollow]

Great day for Geraghty, Henderson & Buckley so far. He's a fabulous jumper that Finians Rainbow but he looks a bit soft. If he strengthens up a bit during the winter, he could make a decent two mile chaser next season.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Get up the yard ya beaut! 

[the Deel Rover]

put a few quid on hardy's tips here's hoping

[Donnellys Hollow]

Delighted for Jason Maguire - missed out on the ride on Silver Birch when he won. His uncle who was one of the finest jockeys I've ever seen never won the race.

Walsh performed miracles to get The Midnight Club home.

Will Paul Carberry receive a two day ban for swearing on the BBC?! 

[boojangles]

Who was Jasons uncle DH? Adrian??
Great tipping by the way, but we'v come to expect nothing less!
Did Spirit Son and Finians Rainbow in a double. Should have thrown in your 3rd fancy (Geraghtys 3rd runner) Oscar Whiskey but a good day overall. I definitely owe Barry Geraghty a drink if I ever meet him, after winning on Pipes horse Battlegroup yesterday.
Backed State of Play each way for the 3rd year in a row and again he duly obliged after looking totally beaten. Would stay 5 miles if asked!

[beer baron]

What did Carberry the king say?Went on the rip last night and didn't get home until about 12 o clock today and went to bed-missed the National woke up 5 minutes before he off to see a text with a tip for Elliotts/Carberrys in the last so not so bad