I don't think Down will be too bad. Lost 4 games in the league last year but only lost to Offaly by 3 and Kerry by 1. I'm not sure what their prep has been like this year and I understand that Trevor Fletcher joined their backroom recently enough. Laois should win but wouldn't totally dismiss Down. Often the so-called inferior teams do well in the early stages of the league (when pitches are heaviest and especially if they have a good block done pre-Christmas and some games played after it) and do less well later in the year.