The Race for the ARAS.....

[Maguire01]

Just did a quick tot on the basis of those figures from the Quantum pole. On that spread, the candidates would all be likely to be eliminated in the (reverse) order of first preferences. The count would go the whole way with Higgins in the lead throughout and winning with the elimination of the third placed candidate. All placings would remain the same as for the first preferences throughout the counts.

Not scientific obviously, given that the poll itself comes with a major health warning, plus, it only gives first and second preferences.

[Trout]

The Tory party conference this week, and what come out of it, will have a bigger bearing on the lives of the people in the 6 counties. I wonder has McGuiness time to fit in a visit this year again?

[Shamrock Shore]

I've no idea what you're saying here.

Sorry - just a reference to the auld canard 'vote early and vote often' that has been attributed to Sinn Féin for a long time.

[mylestheslasher]

The biggest health warning with that poll is that it was sponsored by the sindo. That rag has gone to town yet again today on mcguinness. It'd a shame there is no regulator in the media allowing one candidate to be constantly attacked by a rag with an agenda.

[muppet]

The biggest health warning with that poll is that it was sponsored by the sindo. That rag has gone to town yet again today on mcguinness. It'd a shame there is no regulator in the media allowing one candidate to be constantly attacked by a rag with an agenda.

Didn't see it today so have no idea what's in it, but you really need to open your eyes if you think poor auld Martin is the only one ever getting any grief.

[Minder]

Matt Cooper: Some skeletons rattle more than others Sunday Times

Two of the seven presidential candidates have built their political careers on their personal experiences of being discriminated against and their reaction to being treated as second-class citizens. They fought for their own personal rights as well as those of others. The contrast in how they dealt with their struggles is relevant to the election because both candidates are trading on elements of their past to convince us of their suitability to lead us into the future.

Martin McGuinness as well as other Catholics and nationalists north of the border, was the victim of institutional repression, the "cold house" as David Trimble, the former Ulster Unionist Party leader, called it. This was wrong, inexcusable, should not have been allowed to happen and needed to be changed. David Norris was the victim of something that, arguably, went deeper and was more reprehensible and invidious. His sexuality was denied and any homosexual acts in which he engaged were liable to result in criminal prosecution and possible incarceration.

McGuinness reacted to injustice by the use of violence, Norris by the force of law. McGuinness, as a member of the IRA, caused revulsion as he killed and terrorised. He denies, unconvincingly, that he did so personally but he is as responsible as his colleagues because in his publicly-visible Sinn Fein role he continued to unhesitatingly defend and support the Provos.

In seeking to right the wrongs he suffered Norris also defied public opinion. But he chose to do so by legal, non-violent means. He challenged bad laws in the courts and each time he failed, appealed against the decision to higher courts. He succeeded finally at the European Court of Human Rights in having our laws relating to homosexuality declared discriminatory. He paved the way for Maire Geoghegan Quinn's finest act as a minister, with her introduction of legislation decriminalising homosexuality.

It is striking that Norris has managed to achieve more of his political aims than McGuinness. Norris achieved justice by the force of argument and logic. His work has not been completed, because this state still does not recognise the right of consenting adults of the same sex to participate in full, legal marriage. But the advances have been extraordinary, considering that the republic was often a cold house for non-Catholics. Even if Norris suffers the disappointment of losing this election, his place in Irish history books has been secured.

McGuinness and his ilk bullied and terrorised but only achieved some of what they sought once they belatedly abandoned their terrorism. The Provisional IRA and Sinn Fein are still at a considerable distance from the United (socialist) Ireland they espoused as their raison d'etre. It was this ambition and the end of British rule in Ireland rather than the more modern talk of achieving social justice that we heard most about during the Troubles.

Thousands of lives were lost needlessly in putting together a power-sharing arrangement not far removed from what was available in the mid-1970s. The Republican movement boasts regularly about achieving peace and justice for nationalist people in the six counties, but deals selectively with history in doing so. It reviles anyone who tries to look at the bigger picture and, in a clever trick, accuses its critics of being the ones who are narrowly focused.

Yet, despite their respective achievements, McGuinness seems better placed than Norris to win the race to the Aras (irrespective of the odds offered by bookies). Norris is having more difficulty in dealing with a single issue from his past than McGuinness is with the many skeletons in his cupboard.

Norris is being lambasted for seeking clemency for a man who committed a sex crime in another country, and using his position as a member of Seanad Eireann to seek a noncustodial or lesser prison sentence. Clearly this was inappropriate, at best. But his past error is relevant to the present day. He is being treated as untrustworthy now because he won't publish the other letters he sent on behalf of the convicted man, his former lover.

Norris cites legal advice but others claim that excuse has no validity. He insists there is nothing in the letters he wants to hide, that he is merely protecting the victim. Perhaps he is, but the speculation over their content will continue until they are published. He can condemn child sex abuse until he is blue in the face, but those letters are the reality he cannot escape.

Contrast this with McGuinness. Here is a man who personally negotiated the early release from jail of murderers, some of whom were distinctively evil. This early release was one of the sticking points when it came to the IRA's agreement to surrender its weapons. McGuinness said last week that the IRA did things that he cannot excuse (that's good to know), but there was no such discretion when it came to releasing killers (both nationalist and loyalist). No matter how heinous or unjustifiable their crimes, these killers were released as part of the price of securing peace. This was the so-called parity of pain.

McGuinness and Sinn Fein are brandishing the peace process like a parent with a child in arms. McGuinness and his supporters seem to believe that he should be granted a free pass from any examination of his past because of his influential role in the peace process. In doing so they are engaged in a none-too-subtle rewriting of history that is going largely unchallenged. It is as if the SDLP and John Hume did not exist, the people who took the real risks for peace and who never killed anyone in the first place. It is insulting to so many Northern nationalists, such as our President Mary McAleese, that their belief that politics rather than terrorism represented the best way to effect change is effectively being denied.

If participation in the peace process gives a candidate an advantage in the election then surely Fianna Fail would have chosen Bertie Ahern to run as its candidate? Nobody can deny Ahern's personal efforts in not just securing the Good Friday Agreement, but subsequent actions that were required to confirm and copper-fasten the peace. Ahern is ruined politically for two reasons: one is the public reaction to his handling of personal money and the likely findings that will be published at the Planning Tribunal. More damaging is his responsibility for the mismanagement of the economic boom.

But does this make Ahern a lesser person than McGuinness or less suited to the position of president? I would argue (as would many others) that Ahern is clearly unsuitable and undeserving. So where does that leave McGuinness?

The media spotlight on McGuinness is predictable but also justifiable. His own response to what he should have known was coming — he has modified comments about "west Brits" to those about "British-owned newspapers" — has been disappointing, particularly for a man who demonstrated impressive inclusiveness in his job as Northern Ireland's deputy first minister. McGuinness has undeniable strengths and deserves congratulations for his performance in recent years, but could undo much of that good work if he appears ungracious under pressure.

And there will be plenty of pressure on all seven candidates in the coming weeks, some more than others. Already the game has moved on to a ridiculous debate about the apparently enhanced photogenic qualities of some candidates on their posters. This "revelation" is being treated as if it was a crime. It's not, but in a campaign where no policies are being promoted, anything that speaks to a person's character is up for examination.

[Kerry Mike]

http://www.newstalk.ie/2011/programmes/martin-mcguinness-and-gay-mitchell/

Mitchell and Dunphy have a few go's at each other.

[Ulick]

The biggest health warning with that poll is that it was sponsored by the sindo. That rag has gone to town yet again today on mcguinness. It'd a shame there is no regulator in the media allowing one candidate to be constantly attacked by a rag with an agenda.

No, the biggest health warning with that poll is that it was undertaken by the Sindo. 'Quantum Research' polls are fake - just simply not creditable.

[mylestheslasher]

The biggest health warning with that poll is that it was sponsored by the sindo. That rag has gone to town yet again today on mcguinness. It'd a shame there is no regulator in the media allowing one candidate to be constantly attacked by a rag with an agenda.

Didn't see it today so have no idea what's in it, but you really need to open your eyes if you think poor auld Martin is the only one ever getting any grief.

Go to WWW.independent.ie, look at the top stories. All of them attacking mcguinness. Last week the top 8 stories, believe it or not, were attacking mcguinness. That's not balanced and if you think it is I think it is you that needs to open their eyes.

[Maguire01]

The biggest health warning with that poll is that it was sponsored by the sindo. That rag has gone to town yet again today on mcguinness. It'd a shame there is no regulator in the media allowing one candidate to be constantly attacked by a rag with an agenda.

http://www.presscouncil.ie/
And then of course, there's libel laws.

Unless your issue is with freedom of the press?

[Maguire01]

The biggest health warning with that poll is that it was sponsored by the sindo. That rag has gone to town yet again today on mcguinness. It'd a shame there is no regulator in the media allowing one candidate to be constantly attacked by a rag with an agenda.

No, the biggest health warning with that poll is that it was undertaken by the Sindo. 'Quantum Research' polls are fake - just simply not creditable.

I'd be interested to know what impact 'fake' polls would / could have.

[rossie mad]

Have to say FGs attack on mcguinness is really only going to hurt mitchells chances.
Cant understand why they are persisting with it bar the fact that they want anyone to win it as long as its not mcguinness.
The only candidate this is helping is higgins and to a smaller extent mcguinness himself as it will further strenghten the core vote he will get.

[muppet]

The biggest health warning with that poll is that it was sponsored by the sindo. That rag has gone to town yet again today on mcguinness. It'd a shame there is no regulator in the media allowing one candidate to be constantly attacked by a rag with an agenda.

Didn't see it today so have no idea what's in it, but you really need to open your eyes if you think poor auld Martin is the only one ever getting any grief.

Go to WWW.independent.ie, look at the top stories. All of them attacking mcguinness. Last week the top 8 stories, believe it or not, were attacking mcguinness. That's not balanced and if you think it is I think it is you that needs to open their eyes.

I didn't say it was balanced, you said only one candidate is constantly attacked. Norris was savaged long before McGuinness even entered and Davis has been removed as a credible candidate by the Sindo. I don't agree with it, but it is not only your candidate as you insist.

[mylestheslasher]

The biggest health warning with that poll is that it was sponsored by the sindo. That rag has gone to town yet again today on mcguinness. It'd a shame there is no regulator in the media allowing one candidate to be constantly attacked by a rag with an agenda.

Didn't see it today so have no idea what's in it, but you really need to open your eyes if you think poor auld Martin is the only one ever getting any grief.

Go to WWW.independent.ie, look at the top stories. All of them attacking mcguinness. Last week the top 8 stories, believe it or not, were attacking mcguinness. That's not balanced and if you think it is I think it is you that needs to open their eyes.

I didn't say it was balanced, you said only one candidate is constantly attacked. Norris was savaged long before McGuinness even entered and Davis has been removed as a credible candidate by the Sindo. I don't agree with it, but it is not only your candidate as you insist.

Davis was outer by the independent on Saturday, different paper. Norris was attack but over new revelations. Nothing new in what's being levelled at mcguinness.

[muppet]

Davis was outer by the independent on Saturday, different paper. Norris was attack but over new revelations. Nothing new in what's being levelled at mcguinness.

Ah right.

Would you believe that FF even believe the Sindo gave them a hard time even when it won them 3 elections in a row? Political lackeys always seem to have their senses of perspective completely removed.